Key inquiries and points of interest for the final week of the 2025-26 NBA regular season
The 2025-26 NBA regular season is nearing its conclusion, but playoff basketball is just on the horizon.
The competition for seeding in both the Eastern and Western Conferences is intensifying, with play-in tournament and first-round matchups becoming increasingly defined.
In the Western Conference, five teams have secured their playoff positions, with the Oklahoma City Thunder winning the division for the third consecutive season and aiming to be the first team to repeat as champions since 2018.
In the Eastern Conference, four teams have earned playoff spots, while the play-in scenario is still being determined in the final days of the season.
Our NBA insiders have analyzed the key elements to monitor in the closing days of the regular season, including which postseason seeding battles will be decided in the final moments, what last-minute award campaigns to watch, and how lottery-bound teams are performing in their final week of play.
What is the most critical aspect yet to be resolved in the East playoff race?
The one certainty at the top of the Eastern playoff standings is that the Detroit Pistons, despite losing Cade Cunningham for the concluding weeks of the regular season due to a collapsed lung, will secure the top seed in the conference. Beyond that, the situation becomes uncertain. The Boston Celtics are expected to finalize the second position, although they still have some tasks to complete to confirm it. The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers are likely to battle until the end of the season to determine who will finish third and fourth, respectively, with the Atlanta Hawks, currently projected to finish fifth, playing a role in that outcome.
Atlanta will host New York on Monday and then face Cleveland in a home-and-home series on Wednesday and Friday. The results of these games will significantly influence which team will meet the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors are tied for the sixth and final playoff spot in the East standings with four games remaining, and Toronto’s recent home loss to the Sacramento Kings could prove to be a pivotal moment by the end of next week. — Tim Bontemps
What is the primary question for the current East play-in teams?
Is there a potential play-in team that could make an impact in the postseason? If the Charlotte Hornets qualify for the play-in, they would be the most formidable team emerging from that scenario. After a 16-28 start, the Hornets have been on a winning streak since January, defeating teams such as the Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and Boston. LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller are both healthy and driven. Kon Knueppel has shown fearlessness and is a frontrunner for Rookie of the Year.
Recall the February 9 altercation between the Hornets and Pistons? The Hornets certainly remember. If Cade Cunningham (collapsed lung) is not fully recovered, the Hornets could pose a challenge in the first round. Should the Hornets face the Celtics, coach Charles Lee’s familiarity with the Celtics as a former Boston assistant could be advantageous. Despite their lack of playoff experience, the Hornets could be a tough opponent due to their explosive and unpredictable offense and the confidence they have displayed since January. — Ohm Youngmisuk
What is the most significant issue yet to be determined at the top of the West playoff race?
Can the Spurs catch the Thunder to secure the No. 1 seed? Oklahoma City’s lead has grown to three games with four remaining, but San Antonio holds the tiebreaker for the season series, and OKC’s next three games are away. The Spurs have been on fire with a 27-3 record since February, but the defending champions have made it challenging to close the gap. The Thunder are 17-1 since the return of reigning (and likely repeating) MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had been sidelined due to an abdominal strain.
The Denver Nuggets, currently tied with the Los Angeles Lakers for the third seed in the West, could play a crucial role in determining whether the Thunder or Spurs claim the top position. After defeating the Spurs in a thrilling overtime match on Saturday, Denver’s remaining schedule includes a home game against the Thunder on Friday and a season-ending visit to San Antonio on Sunday. — Tim MacMahon
What is the biggest question for the teams seeded 3 to 6?
With Luka Doncic (left hamstring strain) out indefinitely and Austin Reaves (oblique injury) sidelined for the remainder of the regular season, will L.A. be able to secure home-court advantage in the first round? Even if they return for Game 1 of the opening round, will they be able to regain the rhythm and conditioning they had in the latter half of the season? Additionally, will the seeding for the No. 5 Houston Rockets and the No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves hinge on their matchup against each other in Houston on April 10? — Dave McMenamin
What about the West play-in?
Does Stephen Curry’s unexpected return change the dynamics? It won’t alter the standings. The Golden State Warriors are firmly in the 10th position. The Phoenix Suns appear to be settled in the seventh position. The Portland Trail Blazers and LA Clippers are competing for the eighth spot, with a matchup between them scheduled for Friday night.
However, Curry’s return after a two-month absence presents a more formidable version of the Warriors emerging from the lower end of the play-in bracket. If he can perform at a high level in the final week, and Kristaps Porzingis remains healthy and effective, the Warriors could become serious contenders to be the second 10th seed ever to advance to the playoffs. Conversely, if Curry is limited or sidelined due to his knee, the Warriors may face a swift and quiet exit. — Anthony Slater
Which sidelined star most needs to return before his team begins postseason play?
Cade Cunningham played only five minutes on March 17 before leaving early, and he has not returned since due to a collapsed lung. The Pistons clearly require his presence if they aim to make their first deep playoff run since 2008.
Nonetheless, a positive sign is that the Pistons have continued to perform well in Cunningham’s absence, achieving an 8-2 record with a plus-11.9 net rating during that time. Both losses occurred in overtime. Detroit would be in an excellent position if its supporting cast maintains this level of play with a healthy Cunningham back in the lineup. — Zach Kram
What should fans of lottery-bound teams focus on this week?
Anticipate a significant amount of losing from the teams that need to secure losses. As the week begins, Washington, Brooklyn, and Indiana have created a slight separation for the bottom three spots and top lottery odds, but there is still more to unfold and several remaining matchups with lottery implications.
The Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets will face off on Thursday — a game that someone must win. Additionally, the Kings and Utah Jazz, along with the trio of the Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta (pick via New Orleans Pelicans), and Memphis Grizzlies, as well as the Chicago Bulls-Milwaukee Bucks matchup, remain closely positioned in the standings. Every lottery combination is crucial for these teams, given the quality of talent at the top of this draft class. — Jeremy Woo
Are there any awards still available, and if so, who might claim them in the final week?
This may contradict conventional wisdom, but I actually don’t believe so. This year is shaping up to be one where the MVP award and Rookie of the Year will be more competitive than usual. However, Tim Bontemps’ polling indicates that the electorate is largely favoring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kon Knueppel. (The race for top rookie gained some excitement over the weekend when Cooper Flagg scored 96 points in a historic two-game performance.) Even if the Spurs surpass the Thunder for the top seed, Bontemps’ reliable projection suggests that the gap is too wide for Victor Wembanyama to overtake SGA.
At this stage, there are no other realistic MVP contenders. However, Wembanyama, provided he reaches 64 games played (including NBA Cup game bonus), could win Defensive Player of the Year unanimously. Coach of the Year could see varied votes, but J.B. Bickerstaff and Joe Mazzulla, the two leading candidates, have their credentials established. Jalen Duren’s impressive performance since Cade Cunningham’s injury has positioned him strongly for the Most Improved Player award. Keldon Johnson has just surpassed 1,000 points off the bench for the Spurs and is likely to secure the Sixth Man award. — Brian Windhorst
How will the 65-game rule impact the final week?
There are still several former award winners, including Nikola Jokic (62 games), Kawhi Leonard (61), Evan Mobley (62), and Pascal Siakam (62), who have yet to meet the minimum 65-game requirement to qualify for postseason honors. Each has four games left to play.
Doncic will fall one game short due to a hamstring strain that has ended his regular season, but he can request an exception. Doncic missed two games for the birth of his daughter in December.
Spurs star Victor Wembanyama, this year’s frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, All-NBA, and in consideration for MVP, was not eligible last season but will meet the criteria on Monday at home against Philadelphia.
Deni Avdija was named an All-Star for the first time and is a candidate for All-NBA, but he cannot miss any games in the last week to become eligible.
One name absent from the list is Anthony Edwards. He was named to the All-NBA second team in 2024-25 but will not meet the 65-game requirement despite ranking third in scoring this season. — Bobby Marks
Notable players already eligible: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Johnson, Jaylen Brown, James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson, Kris Dunn, Bam Adebayo, Ryan Rollins, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jalen Brunson, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Tyrese Maxey, De’Aaron Fox, Brandon Ingram, and Scottie Barnes.
