Insights from the NBA trade deadline: An underlying strategy of tanking
THE NUMBERS IN the cylinder were 3, 5, and 2. All low. Teams with the poorest records, thus having the highest odds in the annual NBA draft lottery, are generally assigned these low combinations.
One number remains.
Justin Zanik, the general manager of the Utah Jazz, leaned forward on his elbows, examining his flip card containing all the numbers assigned to his team.
Will Dawkins, the general manager of the Washington Wizards, gazed ahead with his hands clasped beneath the table.
Rick Schnall, co-owner of the Hornets, donned his glasses and placed a pencil next to the numbers he required.
They all sat in close proximity, maintaining a stoic demeanor — as decorum dictated — but this moment has the potential to alter the trajectory of billion-dollar enterprises. The three teams with the highest odds had not experienced any fortune during the initial three drawings that evening last May.
This was the final opportunity to advance. Matt Doria, an NBA vice president, extracted the next number from the machine.
11.
“Charlotte Hornets.”
Schnall removed his glasses and reclined, a sense of relief washing over him. Dawkins extended a handshake. Zanik glanced over and offered a subdued smile. Schnall responded with a sympathetic shrug.
And that, quite simply, can be the distinction between acquiring a player like Kon Knueppel, whom the Hornets selected at No. 4 due to that lottery outcome and who is among the frontrunners for Rookie of the Year, and not.
It also represents the contrast between immediate returns and engaging in the NBA’s emerging tanking strategy: the flip.
KNUEPPEL IS HAVING one of the most remarkable rookie shooting seasons in league history, achieving 42% on eight 3-point attempts per game (Steph Curry recorded 43% on five as a rookie).
Although the Hornets have been developing this roster for several years — having secured four top-six selections in the last six drafts — Knueppel’s addition has accelerated a turnaround that has led to their longest winning streak (nine) in over two decades.
At the trade deadline, Charlotte executed a bold trade for guard Coby White as part of their aspirations for a genuine postseason push.
Meanwhile, the Jazz selected Ace Bailey at No. 5, and the Wizards picked Tre Johnson at No. 6. Both teams are optimistic about their futures, and in a season or two, they could be competing closely with Knueppel regarding their impact. However, neither has yet allowed for such a shift.
Instead, the Wizards and Jazz are at the forefront of this new-age hybrid: actively tanking while also hedging — and in their cases, trading for stars amid a challenging season — to facilitate a rapid turnaround next season. The flip.
“How can you fault them?” one Eastern Conference general manager remarked. “The disparity between securing a top-four pick last year and not was significant. And this year, we all recognize that being in the top four and missing out [on the top four] is substantial.”
The Wizards have acquired multitime All-Stars Trae Young and Anthony Davis, two players anticipated to assist them in returning to the playoffs for the first time in five years … next season.
Young returned from a quad injury and participated in five out of six games for the Atlanta Hawks in December. However, after being traded to Washington, he has not played in six weeks, and there is no timeline for his return.
When Davis sustained a hand injury last month, the Dallas Mavericks issued a news release indicating he was expected to be sidelined for six weeks. After trading for him last week, Dawkins informed reporters in Washington that Davis would be returning to Dallas for rehabilitation and that his recovery timeline could extend to approximately 10 weeks.
All of this, of course, positions the Wizards to potentially secure the highest draft pick this year (with the caveat that their pick would convert to the New York Knicks if it falls outside the top eight) while also making a swift move toward contention next season when Davis and Young would, theoretically, be healthy.
“You may believe your fans are the most challenging ones to appease during a rebuild,” one veteran league executive stated. “But it’s truly your owner. Owners want to know when a rebuild will conclude, and it’s evident that some of these teams have a deadline.”
The Jazz, for their part, seem to be in a similar situation as they aim for their own flip — transitioning from tanking to the playoffs as quickly as possible.
Utah’s pick is also top-eight protected, and the Jazz exemplify what a few spots in the lottery can signify. The team’s coaches and front office express enthusiasm about Bailey’s future, but he was not invited to participate in the league’s Rising Stars Game during All-Star Weekend, while former Duke teammates and top-four picks Cooper Flagg and Knueppel are headlining.
Like the Wizards, the Jazz made a significant move at the trade deadline, surprising the league by acquiring Jaren Jackson Jr. in a draft-pick-heavy deal with the Memphis Grizzlies.
In his debut with the team on Saturday, Jackson scored 22 points in just 25 minutes. He was then benched during the fourth quarter of a subsequent three-point loss in Orlando.
His new teammate, Lauri Markkanen, recently missed seven consecutive games due to illness and has frequently been removed from the lineup during close games. Markkanen scored 27 points in 27 minutes against the Magic and was seated next to Jackson during the fourth — a scenario likely to recur as the season progresses.
“Trae and AD plus a top-five pick in this draft, or Jaren and Markkanen plus a top-five pick, and you have something that could be special,” one Eastern Conference head coach noted. “No standout from this draft, and you have teams at the bottom that may only manage to reach the middle.”
Based on their actions, it appears other teams are considering similar strategies. This includes teams like the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers.
THE NETS DID something unprecedented this season, acquiring and utilizing five first-round picks and consistently fielding the youngest lineups in the league (the Wizards started a lineup with an average age of 20.6 years old at one point).
Lacking control over their first-round picks for the next several years, the Nets are highly motivated to secure the highest pick possible, then swiftly propel themselves back into relevance. This is a significant reason Brooklyn retained forward Michael Porter Jr., who is enjoying a career season and is in demand, at the trade deadline.
He is essential for the flip, which the Nets aim to achieve by aggressively utilizing the nearly $50 million in cap space they possess this summer. The Pacers share a similar hope, albeit they are a few years ahead: a quick resurgence next season when star point guard Tyrese Haliburton returns from a torn Achilles.
Indiana took a step in that direction by acquiring a new franchise center in Ivica Zubac from the LA Clippers at the deadline.
After participating in 15 out of 16 possible games before being traded, Pacers coach Rick Carlisle announced that Zubac will miss some upcoming games to address a sore ankle that was not previously on the injury report. He also recently welcomed a new child.
Other teams could also gain from short-term losses, particularly those with stars sidelined due to uncertain injury timelines, such as the Milwaukee Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Dallas Mavericks with Kyrie Irving.
“You know what’s ironic?” one Western Conference executive remarked. “Charlotte trades for White hoping to utilize him immediately, and they discover he’s actually injured. Meanwhile, Utah, Indy, and Washington trade for players and find ways to keep them sidelined.”
Indeed, when the Hornets conducted a physical on White last week, they uncovered a previously undiagnosed calf injury that necessitated an amendment to the trade, with Charlotte removing a second-round pick from the agreement with the Bulls.
Unquestionably, there is some frustration within the league, even if the flip strategy has some intellectual validity. The subject of these long-term non-competitive tactics was discussed at a recent NBA competition committee meeting, sources indicated.
However, any significant rule changes to address this approach will not be able to halt it this season.
And the tanking is likely to become more apparent and possibly more widespread.
This raises some philosophical questions regarding the overall direction of the league.
“You’ve heard of Icarus and what occurs when you fly too close to the sun,” one team president stated. “I believe some teams are at risk of flying too close to the ground.”
