Fantasy basketball: Is it time to acquire or part ways with SGA, Giannis, Harden, and other prominent players?
The NBA trade deadline is approaching on Thursday, drawing attention to the teams and players most engaged in trade discussions. Any transactions made will significantly impact fantasy rosters, altering the values of the players involved as well as those teams gaining or losing talent.
In a similar vein, the fantasy landscape has its own trade considerations and deadlines to keep in mind as we enter the latter part of the season. A player’s fantasy value fluctuates throughout the season for various reasons, and astute managers capitalize on these changes to enhance their teams.
Below is a compilation of several players frequently traded in ESPN leagues. Considering their current trends and expectations for the remainder of the season, should you pursue a trade for them or consider moving them? Let’s delve into the details.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis is undeniably a top-10 player in points leagues when he is healthy with the Bucks. However, he is currently dealing with an injury and has an uncertain return timeline, placing him at the forefront of the NBA trade discussions as the deadline approaches. This situation creates considerable ambiguity regarding his fantasy value for the remainder of the season, which explains why he is, by a significant margin, the most traded player in ESPN leagues recently.
Giannis is presently ranked around the top-40 in both points and categories for rest-of-season rankings, a drop from his usual standing due to the injury concerns. If I were to trade for Giannis, that would be the level of value I would propose. Conversely, if he were on my roster, I would still seek at least top-15 value in return. For instance, in a specific case involving one of my teams with Giannis, another league manager proposed Evan Mobley and Jordan Poole in exchange. I countered with Mobley and Keyonte George. Negotiations are ongoing, but this illustrates a reasonable range for potential offers and counteroffers for Giannis.
James Harden, PG/SG, LA Clippers
Harden has officially requested a trade from the Clippers and is reportedly collaborating with the team to facilitate a transfer to another franchise. The Cleveland Cavaliers are frequently mentioned as the preferred trade partner, although this is not guaranteed. Should he be traded to the Cavaliers, it would likely be viewed as a downgrade in fantasy terms. This move would shift Harden from a Clippers team where he is one of two primary offensive threats to a Cavaliers squad where he would need to integrate into a hierarchy that includes Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and several other capable scorers, including newly acquired point guard Dennis Schroder.
At this stage in his career, Harden aims to play for a contender. Since he is reportedly working with the Clippers to expedite the deal, he would presumably be heading to a competitive team. Even if it is not the Cavaliers, most contending teams already have an established offensive structure that could lead to a decline in Harden’s individual statistics. He has been a top-10 fantasy performer this season, but that includes a significant period when Kawhi Leonard was sidelined and Harden was the primary option. He should remain productive wherever he lands, but a trade could potentially reduce his status from a top-10 fantasy producer to more in the range of top-25. If Harden is on my fantasy roster, I might consider trading him preemptively if I can secure top-10 value, whereas if he is not on my team, I might propose top-25 value now in case his current manager is feeling anxious.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the league in fantasy points, ranking third in fantasy points per game and second in the fantasy rankings for both points and categories leagues. However, for the second consecutive season, the Thunder hold the best record in the NBA and have a significant lead over the second-place team in the West. As observed last season, the Thunder are willing to rest SGA and their other stars as the season progresses.
Last season, SGA missed only one of the first 62 games, but sat out five of the last 20, including three consecutive games at the end of the season. Therefore, if SGA is the top player on my fantasy team, I might have some concerns about his potential absence during my fantasy playoffs when I need him most.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s trade value is currently at its peak. If he is on your roster, you should only trade him for top-5 value. However, if it weren’t for the slight uncertainty regarding his availability down the stretch, SGA would likely not be available for trade at all. If I were looking to acquire him, I would still be willing to offer top-5 value, potentially with riskier options. In fact, I might consider pairing a high-risk, high-profile player like Giannis with another top-40 player in exchange for SGA and a top-100 player in return.
Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets
Porter transitioned from a championship-caliber Denver Nuggets team to a rebuilding Nets team this past offseason, resulting in an increase in his usage and production, making him a fantasy elite this season. Porter is another player frequently mentioned in trade rumors; however, if he were to be traded to a contender, it is unlikely he would maintain the same shooting opportunities he currently enjoys with the Nets.
Porter is currently ranked in the top 30 for fantasy points per game and top 40 on the player rater. This establishes a reasonable range for his trade value, although if I were to trade him, I would seek top 30 or better, and if I were looking to acquire him, I would likely offer top 40 or lower. The key in negotiations is the uncertainty surrounding the trade rumors, so regardless of which side of the deal you are on, be sure to leverage your perspective on the rumors to optimize your end of the transaction.
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, New York Knicks
Towns is experiencing a subpar season by his standards, averaging just 38.2 fantasy points per game after recording 46.6 FP/G last season. There have been indications of potential friction between Towns and the Knicks, leading to speculation that he may be traded before the deadline. This could prove challenging, as the Knicks possess limited financial flexibility and draft assets to offer, but it introduces an element of uncertainty that makes Towns one of the most frequently traded players in ESPN fantasy leagues.
Towns is a rare impactful player whose fantasy value could potentially increase if he is traded. He has a higher production potential than what he has demonstrated this season, and whether due to team discord or simply the fact that the Knicks are filled with scorers who require their touches, a new environment could benefit KAT. Towns is currently ranked 26th in total fantasy points this season, but possesses top-15 upside in the right circumstances. He ranks 19th on the Player Rater, with his game being slightly more valuable in category leagues than in points leagues. If I have Towns on my roster, I would seek at least top-15 value in any trade involving him. However, if I am looking to acquire him, I would aim for a value closer to the top-40 range based on his current fantasy scoring average rather than his totals or potential.
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid is the highest-risk, highest-reward player in the league, even more so than Giannis. However, quietly, Embiid’s “reward” aspect has been trending positively of late, and the positives appear to be accelerating. Embiid not only missed a significant number of games early in the season, but when he did play, both his minutes and production were restricted. Nevertheless, over the past month, Embiid ranks seventh in the NBA in fantasy points per game. In the last two weeks, he ranks third. Additionally, Embiid has only missed three of his last 18 games.
Currently, Embiid is positioned as a top-50 player in both points and categories, largely due to his risk of missing games. If I were looking to trade for him, I would offer top-50 value, possibly including higher-profile players to make the deal more appealing. However, if he were on my roster, I would demand at least top-20 value in return, if not more. The unpredictability and risk of his availability can be frustrating, but given his current performance, I would not be willing to accept less.
