Expect Cooper Flagg to rank among the top 25 fantasy players, while Jalen Green records an average of 20 points per game.

Every week in the NBA tells its own tale, filled with both unexpected developments and disappointments, compelling fantasy basketball managers to discern what to trust as they move forward. We may offer some assistance. If any of these insights materialize … don’t be taken aback.

Don’t be surprised if … Dallas Mavericks SF/PG/PF Cooper Flagg emerges as a top-25 fantasy player this season

Flagg recorded averages of 23.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.8 APG, and over one steal, block, and 3-pointer in December, while achieving shooting percentages of 51.6% from the field and 80.8% from the free-throw line. These statistics easily qualify as top-20 fantasy figures. Currently, no player is averaging all of these metrics for the entire season. There are 25 players averaging 23.5 PPG, most of whom are relevant in rebounds, 3-pointers, and steals, but they do not consistently achieve all these stats, including hitting half of their field goal attempts. Additionally, they are all significantly older than Flagg, who recently celebrated his 19th birthday.

We can observe fluctuations and a tendency to blend in during games, which can be frustrating for fantasy managers, as Flagg sometimes appears more comfortable not taking charge on offense. However, this is likely to shift in the latter half of the season, as the Mavericks are not in contention for the championship, and C/PF Anthony Davis will not be on the court. Flagg, who recently missed a couple of games due to a left ankle sprain, scored a straightforward 18 points at Madison Square Garden (in a victory!) on Monday. His scoring numbers in January do not align with those from December, but his potential is evident and impressive.

I acknowledge that I was generally skeptical of Flagg on draft day, with an ESPN ADP of 25, primarily because he was just 18 years old, and it seemed ambitious for him to become a top-25 statistical player so quickly. The Mavericks had a roster of big men to manage physicality and rebounding in the paint (Davis, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II), and it was assumed that someone of a typical NBA point guard’s size and skill would fulfill that role (D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Williams, Ryan Nembhard) until Kyrie Irving (knee) returned. Currently, Flagg is the primary big man and, at times, the offensive facilitator.

Flagg leads the 18-26 Mavericks in total points, rebounds, assists, and steals, and he may also lead in blocks. It is fair to assert that Flagg is exceeding even the highest expectations, even as a teenager, and he is undoubtedly a foundational piece for fantasy, not just for future seasons, but for this one as well.

Don’t be surprised if … Phoenix Suns SG Jalen Green averages 20 PPG … while Dillon Brooks does not

Fantasy managers may not have completely overlooked Green, but they could have. Last season, Green accumulated 2,600 fantasy points for the Houston Rockets, a top-50 total, and fantasy managers anticipated similar output for Phoenix following the significant offseason trade for Kevin Durant. However, Green sustained a right hamstring strain in early October, causing him to miss the initial weeks of the season, and upon his return, he aggravated the injury in his second game. Green participated in only his third game of the season on Tuesday, coming off the bench in a victory against the Philadelphia 76ers, where he scored 15 fantasy points while facing a minutes restriction.

Green will not remain a bench player for long, and it will be intriguing to observe how this affects the fantasy value of other Suns players. As a starter, Green is expected to play at least 30 minutes per night, receive plenty of shot opportunities, and be a valuable asset for fantasy managers. As of Wednesday morning, Green was still available in 23% of ESPN standard leagues. While he is not PG/SG Devin Booker, it is unlikely that the overachieving Brooks (who shot 2-of-13 on Tuesday) will continue to average 17 field goal attempts per game or score 20 PPG. Surprise PG Collin Gillespie also cannot maintain an average of 32 fantasy points. He is likely to transition to a reserve role.

Although Green, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, ultimately underperformed in fantasy during his time with the Rockets due to primarily scoring and hitting 3-pointers, he is set to be the No. 2 player for the Suns moving forward. Brooks is not contributing significantly in rebounding or passing either. In fact, these players are quite comparable in that regard. There are 42 players averaging 20 PPG; only Brooks provides fewer than 3.5 RPG and 2.0 APG. Green is expected to surpass those numbers.

Other thoughts

• I understand why fantasy managers are picking up Golden State Warriors PF Jonathan Kuminga, as he possesses offensive talent and one would assume the team must utilize him following the season-ending injury to SF/SG/PF Jimmy Butler III (knee). Coach Steve Kerr played Kuminga for 21 minutes in Tuesday’s blowout home defeat to the Toronto Raptors. It was Kuminga’s first game in over a month, and he recorded 31 fantasy points. However, I do not believe the Warriors intend to keep Kuminga on the roster. I suspect he will be on another team within two weeks, and it remains uncertain if he will produce fantasy numbers there. I am cautious about this situation.

  What concerns me more regarding the Warriors losing Butler — and any semblance of a strong defense, as demonstrated on Tuesday — is the potential impact on PG Stephen Curry in March/April, as the team fights for a Western Conference play-in spot but may find a lottery position more appealing. Curry, who turns 38 in mid-March, may miss games if it serves the team’s best interests (similar to Washington’s Trae Young, who might not play at all), and the same could apply to PF/C Draymond Green, although he has never been less valuable for fantasy purposes. Curry averages 44.2 fantasy points, a top-20 figure. In a season marked by numerous postseason injuries affecting the subsequent season (Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, etc.), will the Warriors want Curry to play regularly in the final weeks?

• In need of rebounds in a very deep dynasty roto league (thanks to injured Zach Edey and inconsistent Andre Drummond), I turned to Mavericks rookie C Moussa Cisse and Sacramento Kings rookie C Dylan Cardwell. This is far from ideal, but the energetic Cisse has been impressive, recording 48 rebounds and 10 blocks over five games, and Cardwell has shown flashes as well. This league operates with a FAAB budget, so there is minimal risk in spending a dollar each Sunday night on a young player who may efficiently utilize minutes and become reliable. I have done this in previous seasons with Drummond and last year with Charlotte Hornets C Moussa Diabate, and it proved successful. Diabate averages 8.4 RPG. Perhaps the Mavericks will limit Cisse’s minutes when Gafford (ankle) returns to health, but they should not.

• Orlando Magic PG/SG Anthony Black did not capture my interest much when he came off the bench for the first six weeks of the season. He averaged 12.8 PPG and 3.1 APG in that role, shooting 45.8% from the field and 68.4% from the line. However, everything has shifted now, and it is surprising that he remains available in 35% of ESPN leagues. Black, now in his third NBA season after being the No. 6 pick in 2023, averages 18.7 PPG as a starter, along with 5.0 APG. His shooting has improved as well. Perhaps he simply did not thrive as a reserve? The most astonishing statistic is the 6-foot-7 Black averaging 6.4 APG in January, while also hitting 49.5% of field goals and 82.1% of free throws. This positions him as a top 30 fantasy producer over the past 30 days.