2026 NBA Playoffs Wagering Guide: Top Selections for Champion, Finals MVP, and Every Opening Round Matchup
The NBA playoffs commence on Saturday and will wrap up with the NBA Finals in mid-June.
Which teams are worth supporting all the way to the NBA Finals? Which underdogs merit your consideration? And who offers the best value for the Finals MVP?
Here are Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick, and Steve Alexander to address those inquiries and share their top picks for each first-round matchup.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and may change.
NBA playoffs roundtable
If you could only place one bet before the playoffs begin, what would it be?
San Antonio Spurs to win the NBA championship (+500): I believe they are the strongest team. They outperformed Oklahoma City during the regular season, and Victor Wembanyama is the most formidable player in the league. I expect them to maximize his playing time in the postseason, and if both Stephon Castle and Wemby perform at their best, the Spurs will secure the championship. — Alexander
Spurs to win the Western Conference (+330): Like Mr. Alexander, I am quite optimistic about the Spurs, who concluded the regular season with the third-best net rating and achieved a 4-1 record against the top-seeded Thunder. Wembanyama leads the team after averaging 25.0 PPG, 11.5 RPG, and 3.1 BPG this season. Additionally, since the Warriors’ repeat in 2018, the league has seen seven different champions in seven years. — Moody
Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (+160): The Celtics have a more straightforward route to the Finals compared to the Thunder, and they offer better odds. The Western bracket includes several candidates for the best player in the league, while the East features Boston and a number of young or less polished contenders. With the league’s second-best offense and fourth-best defense, Boston is only getting stronger as the playoffs approach. — McCormick
Celtics to win series over Philadelphia 76ers (-900): Credit to the 76ers for reaching the playoffs despite numerous injuries, but I struggle to see how, without Joel Embiid, they can take more than a game or two from the Celtics. The Celtics are -900 to win that series, and it seems — I hate to say — a bit low. — Karabell
Which team offers the best value to bet on to win the NBA Finals?
Detroit Pistons (22-1): They were undoubtedly the best and most consistent team in the East this season, and their only limitation is playoff experience. JB Bickerstaff is a capable coach, and Cade Cunningham was an MVP contender until late in the season. I am uncertain if they can defeat Boston, OKC, or the Spurs in a seven-game series, but at +2200, I would be willing to find out. — Alexander
How are the Pistons at +2200 to win the Finals? I do not simply assume they represent the East due to their best record, nor that they will defeat the Celtics if they meet in the East Finals, but to have worse odds than the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks, who have achieved nothing in recent playoffs? I find that illogical. — Karabell
New York Knicks (18-1): In the Eastern Conference, it’s easy to overlook the Knicks with the Celtics, Cavaliers, and Pistons drawing the majority of attention. However, New York finished the regular season ranked fourth in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating. This is significant, as 22 of the last 25 champions finished in the top 10 in defensive rating. The Knicks also boast two elite offensive players in Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. This is a team that could surprise. — Moody
Boston Celtics (+550): It pains me to have such strong faith in Boston’s championship prospects. I am a supporter of the Spurs at their odds, but they face a challenging path in the West just to reach the Finals. The experience and savvy of this Boston team genuinely present championship potential. The rationale for this investment is straightforward — the Western finalist arrives fatigued from a series of lengthy, grueling matchups, while Boston will be waiting, fresh and prepared. — McCormick
What is your favorite long shot bet heading into the playoffs?
Los Angeles Lakers to win the NBA championship (150-1): If Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves can all get healthy and play together, the Lakers can compete with anyone and possess considerable playoff experience. While I am uncertain if they will remain in contention long enough to have their full roster available, there is always a possibility it could happen. — Alexander
Nikola Jokic to win Finals MVP (10-1): Coming off the most remarkable statistical season in NBA history — he was the first player since Wilt Chamberlain to lead the league in both rebounds and assists, and recorded the best Box Plus/Minus ever — Jokic is a unique offensive force who might be able to overcome the Thunder and the Spurs. The long odds reflect the challenging path Denver faces, yet it is always intriguing to consider what an all-time great in his prime might achieve. — McCormick
Minnesota Timberwolves to win the NBA championship (100-1): Aside from the Pistons, these odds seem quite long for the Timberwolves, especially after the franchise managed to reach the West finals just a season ago. Sure, overcoming the Nuggets in Round 1 will be tough, but didn’t the Wolves defeat the Nuggets in Round 2 just two seasons ago? — Karabell
If you had to place a bet on a Finals MVP right now, who would you choose?
Victor Wembanyama (+500): Wembanyama is the most thrilling player in these playoffs, and I believe the Spurs will stop restricting his minutes and allow him to play freely in the postseason with the aim of winning it all. He can make plays on both ends of the court and is surrounded by talented teammates like Castle, De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, and others, and the Spurs’ rich playoff history could benefit them here. If the Spurs claim the title, Wemby will be the MVP. — Alexander
It would be quite fitting for Boston’s Tatum to win it, and he has the fourth-best odds at +1100, but I believe the top team in the West is the best in the league. Perhaps that is the Thunder with the obvious choice of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but I also like Wembanyama at +500. Let’s go with Wemby taking over the league. — Karabell
Jayson Tatum (11-1): Tatum’s odds are appealing, and based on the market, there is a strong likelihood the Celtics will represent the Eastern Conference in the Finals. He has looked impressive since returning from last year’s torn Achilles, averaging 21.8 PPG, 10.0 RPG, and 5.3 APG in 16 games this season. There is also added motivation for Tatum if Boston returns to the Finals, as Jaylen Brown secured Finals MVP during the Celtics’ 2024 championship run. — Moody
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+130): Ultimately, I believe the Thunder will repeat. A Thunder championship is priced at +110, which makes this bet on Shai even more appealing. It seems unlikely that another member of the Thunder’s deep roster would outperform Gilgeous-Alexander sufficiently to earn the Bill Russell NBA Finals Most Valuable Player Award. — McCormick
Best bets for the Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Phoenix Suns
Thunder to win series 4-1 (+205): The Thunder went 3-2 against the Suns in five regular-season encounters, but their victories were convincing, including blowouts by 49 and 27 points, indicating a clear advantage when Oklahoma City is at full strength. While Phoenix has several defenders for Gilgeous-Alexander and strong 3-point shooting, Oklahoma City’s ability to force turnovers and manage tempo should outweigh those strengths. This Thunder team ranked third in net rating after the All-Star break, reinforcing its advantage in this matchup. — Moody
No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets
Total games over 5.5 (-115): There is evident uncertainty surrounding the Lakers due to several key injuries, but they do have LeBron, and the Rockets are the visiting team here. I anticipate a lengthy series and for Doncic to have an impact. — Karabell
Rockets win series 4-2 (+250): It is challenging to envision a scenario where the Lakers upset the Rockets with Doncic and Reaves out indefinitely. James continues to perform at an elite level, but the supporting cast around him is lacking. The Rockets concluded the season strongly, ranking ninth in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating post All-Star break. It is difficult to support the Lakers in this situation. — Moody
No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Series leader in total points scored: Anthony Edwards +130: Jokic is a statistical powerhouse, of course, but expect Edwards to take on a significant scoring role. Edwards averaged 31.6 PPG in a playoff series loss to Denver in 2023 and 27.7 PPG when the Wolves got revenge in 2024. He is poised to score heavily here. — Karabell
Nuggets 4-2 (+450): The Nuggets have been an offensive powerhouse post-All-Star break, ranking third in offensive rating, and they possess the best player in the series in Jokic. Jokic and Jamal Murray have dominated opponents throughout the season, and Denver also won the season series 3-1 against Minnesota. The Nuggets ended the year on a 12-game winning streak. While the Timberwolves rank 11th in defensive rating, Denver’s shot creation and experience should be sufficient to overcome that. — Moody
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers
Spurs sweep (+175): The Spurs are among the favorites to win the championship and have a roster filled with talent led by Wembanyama. While they lack extensive playoff experience, the Blazers are in a similar position aside from Jrue Holiday, who is currently performing well. However, I don’t believe we’ve seen the Spurs unleash their full potential this season, and once they do, they will be very difficult to defeat — even once. — Alexander
Deni Avdija series leader in total points (+145): Avdija has averaged 24.2 PPG this season with a 31.0% usage rate. Wembanyama influences the game in numerous ways, but the Spurs do not always depend on him as a scorer. That is not the case for Avdija and the Blazers. It is a challenging matchup, but he should receive a high volume of field goal attempts. — Moody
The Deni Train is heading to Texas. The league leader in drives per game, this aggressive player — who reached the free-throw line at a rate only Doncic surpassed all year — faces a new challenge against the league’s top rim protector. Avdija’s combination of usage and scoring methods makes this an intriguing counter to Wembanyama as the series favorite at -175. Highlighting his potential in this series, Avdija averaged 33 points in two matchups against San Antonio this season. — McCormick
Best bets for the Eastern Conference
No. 1 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic
Pistons to win the Eastern Conference (+500): The Pistons were significant surprises this season, but they did secure the most wins in the conference. With Cunningham and a solid defense surrounding him, it seems unjust that the Cavaliers and Knicks — who have underperformed in recent playoffs — have better odds. Perhaps the Pistons cannot defeat the Celtics, or any other team. Or perhaps they can! — Karabell
Series total under 5.5 games (-110): The Pistons’ defense and depth create a challenging matchup for the Magic, particularly in half-court situations where Orlando struggled this season. Detroit finished the year strong, ranking eighth in offensive rating and second in defensive rating over its last 10 games. Cunningham and Jalen Duren should thrive in this series, and the Pistons’ ability to dictate the pace should lead to a brief series. — Moody
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors
Series goes under 5.5 games (-110): The Cavaliers’ offense, spearheaded by Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, along with their depth, will be too much for the Raptors to manage. Cleveland has also excelled in clutch situations, while Toronto lacks a reliable go-to scorer. This series could conclude swiftly. — Moody
Donovan Mitchell to average 30+ PPG in Round 1 (+225): The Cavaliers posted an offensive rating of 132 points per 100 possessions with Harden on the floor this season. That is exceptional, historically speaking. Harden’s ability to not only defer but also celebrate his high-scoring teammates has been a hallmark of this career transition as a playmaker. Mitchell has the keys to the scoring engine in this Cleveland offense, which currently operates in the 100th percentile. The Toronto backcourt lacks the personnel to keep pace with Mitchell through the barrage of screens and misdirections Kenny Atkinson has devised. — McCormick
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks
Series goes over 5.5 games (-160): The Hawks are underdogs, but they are currently playing some of the best basketball in the NBA. They are 19-5 in their last 24 games, and while the Knicks won the regular-season series 2-1, their two victories were both by just three points, including a 108-105 win on April 6. The Hawks should be ready for the challenge, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jalen Johnson have been nearly unstoppable this season. I would be very surprised if this series does not extend to at least six games. — Alexander
Nickeil Alexander-Walker series leader in total 3s made (+100): An impressive breakout season saw Shai’s cousin rank fourth in the NBA for 3s made and shoot the highest efficiency of any player averaging at least eight attempts per game during the 2025-26 campaign. Alexander-Walker recently scored 36 points, hitting seven from beyond the arc against the Knicks earlier this month. Brunson attempts fewer shots, takes more challenging threes,
