2026 NBA Playoffs: Forecasting Every Matchup, Including the Championship Series

It is a well-known fact among sports enthusiasts: Everyone enjoys brackets.

So why should college basketball have all the excitement? With the NBA playoffs about to commence this week, let’s borrow from the March Madness format and create an NBA playoff bracket.

Initially, we will utilize ESPN’s Basketball Power Index to identify the four teams expected to progress from the play-in tournament:

• East 7 seed: Philadelphia 76ers

• East 8 seed: Charlotte Hornets

• West 7 seed: Phoenix Suns

• West 8 seed: Portland Trail Blazers

Next, we will forecast the remaining playoff results, narrowing down 16 teams to one that will lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.

East first round

Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Charlotte Hornets (8)

Despite the difference in seeding, these teams share a comparable profile. Since January 1, Charlotte ranks second in the league for net rating, while Detroit is third. The Hornets feature a top-tier offense, and the Pistons possess a robust defense. Both squads are guided by several former lottery selections, along with one significant player who was previously on a two-way contract (Daniss Jenkins for Detroit, Moussa Diabate for Charlotte).

Additionally, both teams were involved in a brawl in February, resulting in suspensions for Diabate, Miles Bridges, Jalen Duren, and Isaiah Stewart.

These elements create a more intriguing 1 vs. 8 series than typically expected. However, the Pistons are likely to progress due to their greater size, which poses a challenging matchup for the high-scoring Hornets. Detroit finished the regular season 3-0 against Charlotte and outscored the Hornets 188-96 in the paint during those encounters.

The pick: Pistons in 6

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)

Do not focus too much on the season series, which ended in a 2-2 tie: These teams have only faced each other once since November 11, and Jayson Tatum did not participate in any matchup against Philadelphia this season.

The 76ers could be an interesting upset choice if Joel Embiid were definitely available, as he would pose a significant challenge for Boston’s inexperienced front line.

However, with the 76ers’ MVP center potentially out due to an emergency appendectomy, while Boston’s lineup is fully fit, there is little reason to anticipate Philadelphia will pose a challenge to the most well-rounded team in the conference.

The pick: Celtics in 5

New York Knicks (3) vs. Atlanta Hawks (6)

New York and Atlanta provided an exciting playoff preview last week, as both teams tightened their rotations in a 108-105 Knicks victory. The difference between the two teams was razor-thin, as Hawks guard CJ McCollum’s potential tying half-court shot came just a moment too late.

This game illustrated that Atlanta has a genuine opportunity for an upset in this series. The Hawks possess a strong starting lineup and have been performing well for months, while Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will put forth considerable effort to contain Jalen Brunson. Nevertheless, the Knicks’ superior depth, especially in the frontcourt, will be pivotal: X factor Mitchell Robinson averaged 10.5 rebounds (four offensive) and two blocks in 19 minutes per game against Atlanta this season.

The pick: Knicks in 7

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Toronto Raptors (5)

Cleveland possesses more talent than Toronto, yet the Raptors swept the season series 3-0; the Celtics are the only other Eastern Conference team to achieve this against the Cavaliers this season.

However, do not place too much emphasis on those regular-season results: All three games occurred before Thanksgiving, meaning James Harden was not yet on the Cavaliers’ roster, and Larry Nance Jr., De’Andre Hunter (twice), and Lonzo Ball (twice) were starters for the Cavs due to various injuries. Cleveland also recorded an unsustainably low 28% success rate on 3-point attempts against Toronto, compared to 36% for the entire season. Furthermore, Toronto, which ranked 26th in made 3s this season, is not well-equipped to exploit Cleveland’s defensive weaknesses from beyond the arc.

All these factors indicate that the Raptors are unlikely to carry their regular-season success into the playoffs, and the Cavaliers should advance with relative ease.

The pick: Cavaliers in 5

East semifinals

Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)

Even though the Pistons are the higher seed, having won eight more regular-season games than the Cavaliers, Cleveland would likely be favored in this matchup: According to DraftKings, the Cavaliers have the second-best odds to reach the Finals in the East, while the Pistons are ranked fourth.

However, I believe that this prevailing opinion is misguided. Firstly, there is a significantly larger disparity between Detroit’s strong defense (No. 2 in the league) and Cleveland’s inconsistent unit (No. 15) than between the two offenses (No. 6 for Cleveland, No. 9 for Detroit).

Secondly, Cleveland’s late-season surge appears somewhat misleading. The Cavaliers are 21-9 since February 7, when Harden made his debut for the team, but many of those victories were narrowly secured against Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Chicago, Utah, and Indiana. The Cavaliers have a plus-4.8 net rating during this period, while the Pistons boast a plus-9.0 rating in the same timeframe.

One aspect of that stretch convinced me of the Pistons’ readiness for the playoffs: Detroit went 9-3 during Cade Cunningham’s absence due to a collapsed lung, with two of the losses occurring in overtime. The top-seeded Pistons pull off a perceived upset — at least, according to Vegas — and advance to the conference finals.

The pick: Pistons in 7

Boston Celtics (2) vs. New York Knicks (3)

The Knicks are not intimidated by the Celtics, having won the season series 3-1 and eliminated them in a second-round upset last spring.

However, Boston’s consistency, in contrast to New York’s fluctuating performance throughout the season, makes it a much safer choice. In some respects, the Celtics were quite unfortunate to exit in the second round last year; they had significantly better shot quality throughout the series, according to GeniusIQ, and lost Tatum to an Achilles injury midway through. They will seek revenge this season, winning the decisive game at Madison Square Garden, where Tatum sustained his injury a year ago.

The pick: Celtics in 6

East finals

Detroit Pistons (1) vs. Boston Celtics (2)

This conference finals matchup would have seemed unlikely in the preseason, when the Pistons were viewed as a developing contender and the Celtics appeared set for a “gap year” without Tatum.

Now, it presents an intriguing battle between the NBA’s second-best offense and second-best defense, along with the likely top two candidates for the Coach of the Year award.

To determine which team will reach the Finals, the difference between the two teams’ wings could be crucial. Tatum (who did not play against Detroit this season), Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White are two-way stars, while Ausar Thompson and Duncan Robinson are one-dimensional specialists. Advantage: Boston.

The pick: Celtics in 6

West first round

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (8)

The Thunder’s only defeat during their 24-1 start was against Portland, but that occurred on the second night of a back-to-back road trip, and Oklahoma City was ahead by 22 points before faltering down the stretch. In the other three encounters, Oklahoma City won by margins of eight, 27, and 29 points, even with Deni Avdija participating in every game.

In a playoff context, the Thunder should continue to dominate. Both teams feature formidable perimeter defenders, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superior primary option compared to Avdija, and the Thunder have significantly more secondary playmakers supporting their leading scorer.

The pick: Thunder in 4

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Phoenix Suns (7)

At first glance, this series may appear competitive, as Phoenix defeated San Antonio twice in November (though Victor Wembanyama missed one of those games) and lost by just one point in a matchup last month.

However, San Antonio’s recent performance indicates that the No. 2 seed has reached a higher level, suggesting this series will conclude swiftly. The Spurs’ only losses since late January have been to the Nuggets (three times) and Knicks, both of whom secured No. 3 seeds; they have not lost to a non-elite opponent in months.

The pick: Spurs in 4

Denver Nuggets (3) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6)

Historically, Minnesota had success against Denver, going 8-3 against the Nuggets during the 2024 postseason and the 2024-25 season. However, the Nuggets fared better against the Timberwolves this season, winning three of four matchups, with their only loss occurring when Aaron Gordon was unavailable.

The Nuggets enter the playoffs riding a 12-game winning streak, while Minnesota struggled towards the end of the season. Denver holds the advantage in this series as Gordon is healthy, and the Timberwolves’ multi-big defensive strategy against Nikola Jokic has proven ineffective. Jokic averaged 36 points, 15 rebounds, and 11 assists while shooting 65% against Minnesota this season.

The pick: Nuggets in 5

Los Angeles Lakers (4) vs. Houston Rockets (5)

Even with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Fred VanVleet, and Steven Adams sidelined, this series features notable star power, highlighted by one particularly intriguing storyline: For the first time after three Finals encounters, LeBron James and Kevin Durant will face off in a non-Finals playoff series. Remarkably, both players are now their teams’ primary options, despite their combined age of 78.

Despite their injuries, the Lakers have a genuine opportunity in this series. Lineups featuring James without Doncic and Reaves this season have recorded a plus-9.0 net rating, according to databallr, and James has historically thrived in lineups with shooters. However, I suspect that after a surprisingly competitive start to the series, Houston will adapt and take control; the Rockets’ talent advantage is too significant for even James to overcome.

The pick: Rockets in 6

West semifinals

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs. Houston Rockets (5)

After the Thunder required two overtimes to defeat the Rockets on opening night, Houston appeared to be a contender to upset the reigning champions. However, a 20-point defeat in January dampened that enthusiasm. (Houston’s sole victory against Oklahoma City occurred with Gilgeous-Alexander absent.)

Turnovers will undermine the Rockets’ chances of keeping pace in this series: Oklahoma City ranked first in turnover rate on offense and second on defense, according to Cleaning the Glass, while Houston ranked 27th on offense and 21st on defense.

The pick: Thunder in 5

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Denver Nuggets (3)

Expect a high-scoring series: In the first three games between these teams (many regulars did not play in the fourth, on the final day of the regular season), the final scores were 139-136, 136-131, and 136-134 (in overtime),