Assessing major reactions from the Australian GP: Could Max Verstappen leave F1, is McLaren in trouble?
The Australian Grand Prix marking the start of the 2026 season was undoubtedly memorable. As we approached Sunday, there were worries regarding the cars, the racing dynamics, and a seemingly overpowering Mercedes. However, the Grand Prix itself delivered a significant amount of excitement, with numerous overtakes and a competitive atmosphere.
Nonetheless, there remains much to discuss and analyze.
We have examined some of the broad generalizations being made about the sport following the first race of the season and assessed whether they are exaggerated.
Max Verstappen may consider leaving the sport
Max Verstappen is clearly struggling with the new cars — significantly. This was evident from his initial media session during preseason testing, and his mood has not improved since. His situation was exacerbated by an unusual crash during qualifying on Saturday. Verstappen has previously hinted that he might exit F1 if he finds it unappealing. Could these cars be the final straw?
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Verstappen did not directly address this topic on Sunday evening, but he did not dismiss the notion when it was raised by ESPN. When asked if Formula 1 should be concerned about his potential departure, he stated: “I think what they should worry about is the rules, just focus on that.”
It is evident that Verstappen is one of the drivers advocating for changes behind the scenes, and Formula 1 would be unwise to ignore his input. While it may be easy to assume that drivers are merely complaining, Verstappen emphasized after the race that he speaks out because of his passion for the sport — he expressed a desire for it to be “Formula 1 on steroids,” referencing his earlier comment that the new regulations have transformed it into “Formula E on steroids.” Regardless, we should not underestimate this possibility.
Verstappen is expected to participate in an endurance race at the Nurburgring this year, and his enthusiasm for motor racing is well-known. The introduction of F1’s new energy-dependent cars coincides with Red Bull’s ambitious new project, which, while in a better position than many anticipated, is not yet the leader in its class. Red Bull may be able to narrow the gap to Mercedes throughout the season, but the difference is substantial. The options for improving these regulations in Formula 1 appear limited, so if a swift solution is not forthcoming and Verstappen continues to be uncompetitive with Red Bull, it is reasonable to suggest he may seek other opportunities.
Remarkably, he would only be 33 when the rules are revised again. Given his talent, Verstappen would always have a pathway back to the sport, and his concerns must be taken seriously. His departure would represent a significant setback for the sport.
play2:19Have the new F1 regulations been successful?
ESPN’s Nate Saunders and Laurence Edmondson discuss whether the new Formula One regulations are effectively working.
F1’s new cars may be disappointing to watch throughout the season
Let’s be frank. Qualifying was harsh, extremely harsh, and the race was an unusual spectacle. The start was unexpectedly chaotic, and the battle between George Russell and Charles Leclerc provided F1 with a positive narrative, but as many drivers later noted, their back-and-forth struggle seemed somewhat artificial and overly reliant on their battery levels. Is this the future of F1?
Verdict: OVERREACTION (we hope)
Formula 1, the FIA, and the teams are already engaged in discussions about how to adjust these regulations. While significant and rapid changes seem improbable, as the issues are deeply rooted in the hybrid turbo’s 50-50 split, several drivers pointed out that Albert Park was one of the least favorable venues for the new engines to debut in competitive conditions due to the absence of heavy braking zones necessary for effective energy harvesting.
Conversations are ongoing to address the impacts of what has been termed super-clipping. Disturbing footage of Oscar Piastri’s car losing over 60km/h approaching Turn 9 went viral after qualifying. The FIA made a somewhat absurd reversal regarding its own decision on active aerodynamic regulations during the weekend, indicating that the governing body is struggling to determine the best course of action.
However, we must maintain our confidence. Formula 1 represents the pinnacle of engineering in motor racing, and solutions are often discovered, particularly when the sport has access to a broader data set. We included the note in brackets here because even some of the most optimistic members of the paddock have found it challenging to align with this perspective. We must hope they can, or else it will be a very challenging year for Formula 1.
play2:05Who’s the favourite to win the F1 Chinese GP?
ESPN’s Nate Saunders and Laurence Edmondson preview the Chinese Grand Prix as George Russell leads the championship after his victory in the Australian Grand Prix.
Russell and Mercedes may secure the title ‘in a few months’
Lewis Hamilton indicated that his former team could clinch the title by the time the FIA addresses the contentious engine trick that Mercedes is believed to have achieved. Russell and Mercedes showcased the full extent of their dominance on Saturday with a comfortable front-row lockout, followed by a one-two finish that was made less secure by the fast-starting Ferraris.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Mercedes appeared strong, but Ferrari’s starts will be an intriguing factor throughout the year. The disparity is so pronounced that it is surprising, and there will be numerous instances this season where Mercedes’ qualifying advantage is negated by Turn 1. While the assessment of the new style of F1 overtakes may have been overly negative, Mercedes and Ferrari possess contrasting strengths that suggest their battles will be very close when they are in contention. Mercedes seems to have a significant advantage in straight-line speed, but reigning world champion Lando Norris noted after the race that Ferrari’s car excels in cornering. Sources within the paddock have echoed this sentiment to ESPN.
Additionally, there is the impending FIA scrutiny. The extent to which the compression ratio controversy influences Mercedes’ strong start to the season remains uncertain. Hamilton himself expressed hope that it is not a significant factor and stated he would be disappointed if it were true and the FIA had permitted it to remain in the car.
Regardless of the reality surrounding Mercedes’ engine, Ferrari’s situation this year cannot be overlooked. Another questionable strategic decision was evident on Sunday, but the atmosphere within the team has been positive for some time. Charles Leclerc appears to be performing at his best, while Hamilton was right on his tail by the conclusion of the Melbourne race. It is just one race, and Ferrari may be playing catch-up early on, but numerous factors suggest that Ferrari will make Mercedes earn every victory it pursues this season.
Aston Martin may struggle throughout the season
Aston Martin’s opening race was marked by astonishing revelations and press conferences. Initially, it was disclosed that the car vibrates so intensely from the engine that Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll risk permanent nerve damage if they drive for extended periods, followed by the news that those same vibrations had damaged two of the four batteries the team can utilize (without incurring penalties) this year. Quite perplexing. The car remains very slow and could not even complete half of the first race without requiring a pit stop.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The promise and potential of the Aston Martin project are still significant, but envisioning a major turnaround in 2026 seems challenging. Aston Martin is in a serious predicament, and its competitors are not remaining idle. The green cars are weeks behind their rivals from preseason testing, and with each race that they cannot complete a full race distance, that gap only widens.
What was most shocking in Melbourne was the sheer magnitude of Honda’s issues. The battery problem is astonishing. F1 teams are expected to utilize two batteries per car over a season, yet Honda exhausted one on each car before the first qualifying session of the year.
Penalties will inevitably follow later in the season due to this. New team principal Adrian Newey is pushing hard for Honda to enhance its performance behind the scenes, but his efforts seem to be causing internal frustration, even as both parties publicly reaffirm the strength of their partnership. Honda must also be questioning whether the notoriously impatient Lawrence Stroll has the patience for a project that could be two or three years behind schedule.
We wish the situation were different, but the reality is clear: Aston Martin is in for a challenging year. It may not always be as dismal as the Australian Grand Prix, but it was expected to make significant progress this season. That turned out to be a false dawn. To understand why this conclusion is so frustrating, one need only watch an onboard of Alonso’s start and his first lap. Captivating stuff — he still possesses the skill. Whether he will have the opportunity to demonstrate it again remains uncertain.
Audi is likely to be F1’s fifth-best team this year
Audi had an impressive debut in Melbourne, with Gabriele Bortoleto finishing in eighth place. The German manufacturer took over the Sauber team at the end of last year, and Sunday’s race marked the first time an Audi competed in any F1 event, which is remarkable considering its stature and history in motor racing.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Kudos to Jonathan Wheatley, Mattia Binotto, and the rest — Audi appears to be ahead of where most experts anticipated them to be a year or two ago. Some in the paddock last year expressed concerns about the incoming Audi project, similar to the current pessimism surrounding Honda, but F1’s newest engine manufacturer seems to be in excellent shape.
The gap between the top four teams and the midfield is substantial, and bridging that divide will require multiple years for any team, but Audi seems to be the best positioned to accomplish it. Firstly, Mercedes’ customer teams are already voicing concerns that their supplier has a much better grasp of the class-leading engine than they do — which poses challenges for Alpine and Williams. The latter appears to be in a significant predicament as well. We know Aston Martin and Honda will likely be at the lower end of the championship this season, and one would expect a manufacturer team to outperform Haas over the course of the season, even if the American team has a history of exceeding expectations this year.
Considering all of this, along with Audi’s strong positioning and the rapid progress of Bortoleto and the consistently reliable Nico Hülkenberg, it already seems poised to be one of the uplifting narratives of F1’s new era.
Some quickfire verdicts
Isack Hadjar can break the second Red Bull seat curse
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Hadjar had an outstanding debut — the occasion did not seem too overwhelming for him, and he delivered everything required. While we are uncertain if he can outperform Verstappen over an entire season, the curse was never about that — it was simply about achieving results that are competitive with the other car. Hadjar is likely to excel in 2026.
Carlos Sainz or Alex Albon may leave Williams
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The vision James Vowles had for Williams was centered on 2026, but the team finds itself significantly off the pace. This is evident on the faces of both drivers: this is not what they anticipated. Williams has two of the more talented drivers on the grid, and they may attract interest from other teams.
Audi showed interest in Sainz, but he was not sufficiently convinced about the project to commit — that may change if our prediction comes to fruition. It is difficult to determine where Albon might go, but having two drivers who feel misled is detrimental for a struggling team.
Cadillac will be three laps off the pace all year
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Cadillac’s inaugural race was far from spectacular, but it was never intended to be. The team is still experiencing significant growing pains — and some minor ones, such as a car losing its wing mirrors during the race — and finished well behind the rest by the end of Sunday’s race. Everyone in F1 was aware that Cadillac would face a steep learning curve upon joining the grid alongside a new set of regulations, but Graeme Lowdon has assembled a highly skilled team, and the performances we have seen from Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas thus far have justified prioritizing experience over other factors.
play3:09Can George Russell win the F1 championship this year?
ESPN’s Nate Saunders and Laurence Edmondson respond to George Russell’s victory in the Australian Grand Prix in Formula One.
McLaren could finish a distant third or fourth
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
After witnessing Zak Brown and Andrea Stella develop the benchmark team over recent years, it was surprising to see the papaya cars so off the pace in Melbourne.
Stella has already indicated that McLaren is still significantly behind in understanding its Mercedes engine compared to how Toto Wolff’s team does, but has also mentioned that the team is lagging in its car development as well — although this may be a diplomatic way of softening criticism of the team’s engine partner, as McLaren’s cars in recent years have been among the best.
In an era that seems heavily influenced by the new hybrid engines, it is conceivable that McLaren is simply playing catch-up for too long. It is bold to bet against the reigning world champions, but the current regulations appear particularly challenging for customer teams.
Kimi Antonelli can win three or more races
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Kimi Antonelli experienced an unusual opening race, with a significant crash in final practice that did not affect his qualifying due to his team’s exceptional work in repairing his car. This highlighted the quality of Mercedes’ engine, which performed admirably after the rebuild.
Despite the erratic moments, Antonelli is incredibly fast and one of the most exciting young talents on the grid. Russell will be a formidable competitor throughout the season, but he did not dominate his teammate on Sunday, especially considering Antonelli spent the early part of the race recovering from a poor start. Keep an eye on this space — the Italian teenager is likely to find himself on the top step of the podium multiple times.
Source: espn.com
