Premier League urgency rankings: Evaluating all 20 clubs based on transfer window anxiety
Transfers in January typically do not yield positive results. While it is true that most transfers generally fail to meet expectations, the winter window transforms an already challenging market into a scenario where one pays 80 cents for the chance to guess the outcome of a coin flip with a 20-cent return.
Signings made in January often carry a 20% premium compared to similar acquisitions during the summer. Over the last ten years, there have been very few instances—if any—of teams making significant winter signings that propelled them to a title they would not have otherwise achieved. Research indicates that approximately 50% of strikers acquired in this window have failed to score any goals from their arrival until the season’s conclusion.
This is not to imply that January signings are universally doomed to fail. Consider players like Virgil van Dijk, Bruno Fernandes, or Martin Ødegaard. However, in many situations, spending substantial amounts on signings that are known to be overpriced and unlikely to create a significant impact before the season ends suggests a sense of urgency.
In fact, Premier League clubs have invested over €400 million in transfers in the past month, while no other league exceeded €230 million in spending. The most desperate teams are found in the wealthiest league globally, where the overall standard of play has reached unprecedented heights, as have the rewards for finishing higher in the standings.
Which clubs, then, exhibited the most urgency in this transfer window that concluded on Monday? We have ranked all 20 Premier League teams from the least to the most desperate.
Not desperate, but they could’ve been
20. Liverpool
19. Wolverhampton Wanderers
18. Arsenal
17. Newcastle United
16. Burnley
A recurring theme in commentary, fan reactions, and general online discourse revolves around Liverpool. The club invested a record sum and brought in seven new players last summer, while allowing several key figures to depart, disrupting the team’s progress and unity. Consequently, the proposed solution appears to be: sign even more new players.
Liverpool is facing numerous injuries and is likely to contend with Chelsea and Manchester United for the final two Champions League spots (potentially including an extra fifth place), while also having a reasonable chance of winning the Champions League. Their response to this situation was … to not sign anyone. This should come as no surprise.
In a similar scenario previously, they concluded the season with Nat Phillips and Rhys Williams as their starting center backs and still qualified for the Champions League. They did make a €60 million acquisition for a center back, but Rennes’ standout Jérémy Jacquet will not join until the summer.
Arsenal, on the other hand, possesses ample depth, with two or three players available for each position. Despite the uproar following their 3-2 defeat to Manchester United last weekend, they remain strong favorites to win the league. A week later, their odds improved further after Manchester City and Aston Villa dropped points. Newcastle continues to operate in a manner that is somewhat perplexing—what exactly is the Saudi ownership group aiming to achieve by not leveraging their financial resources more aggressively?
At the lower end of the table, Wolves and Burnley have made some minor adjustments—both in terms of incoming and outgoing players—as they seem resigned to the likelihood of relegation next season. Wolves’ significant move involved an outgoing transfer, as they are set to receive nearly €50 million for allowing Jørgen Strand Larsen to join Crystal Palace.
We signed someone — but he’s not playing any time soon
15. Brentford
14. AFC Bournemouth
13. Sunderland
Brentford and Sunderland both acquired young players who may not be widely recognized (Kaye Furo and Nilson Angulo, for instance), while Bournemouth allowed their top player (Antoine Semenyo) to depart for Man City and subsequently signed a couple of more expensive young talents that you might have heard of (Rayan and Alex Tóth). None of these clubs are making moves aimed at maximizing their points this season.
We signed someone — but he’s going to be playing for us for a long time
12. Fulham
Last season, Oscar Bobb’s injury felt significant … as Manchester City seemed to depend on him for considerable minutes in their forward rotation. Now, a year and a half later, he has moved to Fulham for a fee (€31 million) that appears (a) too low for a 22-year-old I previously referenced, and (b) too high for a player who has recorded one goal and two assists in seven Premier League starts. He has taken a total of eight shots in the league.
Nonetheless, the risk taken by Fulham is understandable, as they are not in immediate danger of relegation this season but need to rejuvenate their squad as soon as possible. I would not have felt the same way about a similarly priced potential move for PSV’s Ricardo Pepi, which ultimately fell through on the final day of the window.
We’ll take a small bite, why not?
11. Brighton & Hove Albion
10. Leeds United
9. Everton
8. Nottingham Forest
According to projections from Simon Tinsley’s website, Analytic.Football, these teams collectively have a 2% chance of finishing in the top five and a 17% chance of facing relegation. The relegation risk is primarily attributed to Leeds and Forest, both of whom signed one or two players on loan, with Forest also securing Man City’s backup goalkeeper Stefan Ortega on a permanent basis.
The slim chances of Champions League qualification stem solely from Brighton and Everton. Neither club made any permanent signings—only a few loans to enhance depth and address minor gaps.
We have our feet in the freezer and our heads in the oven
7. Crystal Palace
A common saying among statisticians is that if your head is in the oven and your feet are in the freezer, your average body temperature would suggest that everything is fine. This seems to encapsulate the current state at Palace.
Head coach Oliver Glasner has already announced his departure at the end of the season, they allowed club captain Marc Guéhi to leave for City, and star striker Jean-Philippe Mateta expressed his desire to depart, only for AC Milan to withdraw from negotiations on deadline day. This season appears to be a lost cause … correct?
However, they also invested €90 million in winger Brennan Johnson and striker Jørgen Strand Larsen. Johnson represents a solid acquisition for a team in need of forward depth, but JSL has managed just one goal this season, and he is a striker. He is averaging barely more than one shot per game. They also secured Evann Guessand on loan from Aston Villa. With Champions League qualification out of reach, is this all aimed at a potential UEFA Conference League run?
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We fired our coaches but didn’t sign any new players
6. Manchester United
5. Chelsea
There is the typical boost that comes with a new manager, and then there is the situation unfolding at both of these clubs, which have netted 16 goals from 10.6 xG in Liam Rosenior’s and Michael Carrick’s first three matches. Can the performances align with the results? It typically does not happen that way.
We just wanted a better, younger version of what we already had
4. Tottenham Hotspur
Conor Gallagher is a talented midfielder of Champions League caliber. He is at the onset of his prime years, and Spurs acquired him for a €40 million fee—less than what Palace paid for Strand Larsen, who is of the same age. In isolation, this is a commendable move for a team currently sitting 14th in the standings.
However, Gallagher is a diligent, glue-guy-type midfielder, and Tottenham already possesses several players of that profile. The midfield still lacks the essential skill required for the primary function of midfielders: passing the ball.
We’re sure doing a lot
3. West Ham United
2. Manchester City
With two victories from their last three matches, the Hammers find themselves within reach of 17th place. They remain strong candidates for relegation, but there is enough possibility of survival to argue that several “win-now” signings could be justified.
It appears they are attempting to plan for a future in the Championship while also enhancing the current squad. How else can one explain the decision to allow Lucas Paquetá to return to Brazil for €42.25 million while simultaneously acquiring 27-year-old forward Valentín Castellanos from Lazio? They have also signed two additional players: 22-year-old Pablo from Gil Vicente in Portugal and 30-year-old Adama Traoré from Fulham.
Conversely, Manchester City’s transfer activities continue to perplex. They paid an additional €23 million to secure Palace defender Marc Guéhi, who would have been a free agent at the end of the season. Furthermore, they invested €72 million to sign 26-year-old winger Semenyo, who has performed well for Bournemouth but does not seem to address a pressing need for a team with numerous outstanding attackers.
In a league where spending controls are now in effect, one does not spend nearly €100 million on transfer fees for these two players unless there is a sense of urgency.
We don’t care about the future because the present is a gift
1. Aston Villa
Villa ranks as the second-oldest team in the league based on average age. They have signed and loaned two players in, while transferring and loaning out two players. The average age of those departing: 25.5; the average age of incoming players: 27.5.
They have secured Douglas Luiz on loan from Juventus—addressing a pressing need for midfield depth—but spending €2 million on a 15-game loan indicates a level of desperation. This team does not possess unlimited financial resources, and the squad must begin to get younger soon, yet Villa has opted to invest €21 million in acquiring 28-year-old Tammy Abraham. These two moves epitomize a “win-now” mentality.
Currently, Villa holds a seven-point lead over sixth-place Liverpool. They have just made significant financial commitments to ensure that gap remains intact over the next three months.
