Premier League Rankings: Evaluating all 20 teams based on performances rather than outcomes

The leading four clubs in the Premier League have participated in eight matches over the last two matchdays. Can you guess the total points they have accumulated?

The answer is six. That’s six out of a possible 24 points — an impressive rate of 0.75 points per game. West Ham United is currently maintaining a pace of 0.77 points per game. They find themselves in 18th position, and nearly every bookmaker forecasting these outcomes assigns them a significantly higher than 50% likelihood of relegation.

Moreover, the situation may be even more dire than the overall figures suggest. In those eight fixtures, Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa, and Liverpool have collectively secured zero victories. In contrast, West Ham, Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, and Everton have achieved four wins and gathered 14 points during the same period.

However, if we shift our focus away from the top four for a moment and take a broader view, a few more astonishing facts emerge. In the last two weeks, no Premier League teams have won more than one match. And in the past three weeks? No Premier League teams have won more than one match.

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the Premier League is experiencing a contextual crisis due to the notably low quality of attacking play — but more importantly, because the average team’s quality is at an all-time high. Every fanbase appears dissatisfied as teams are dropping points against opponents they typically do not.

To gain a clearer understanding of the Premier League’s current state, we are introducing everyone’s favorite 13-letter, two-word term: power rankings! Welcome to the inaugural edition of ESPN’s Premier League Power Rankings, our monthly assessment of the actual strongest and weakest teams.

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Understanding the Premier League Power Rankings

First, a word of caution: Do not utilize this list to attempt to outsmart the betting markets. You will ultimately lose.

Now, regarding what the ratings in this list signify. These rankings are not intended to be the most precise power rankings ever created — the objective is to develop something straightforward and intuitive while still possessing some predictive capability. The value lies in comparing the rankings to the league table, identifying discrepancies, and exploring the reasons behind them.

As for the metrics that inform these team ratings, there are four key inputs. The first is the team’s non-penalty expected-goal differential, which serves as the best single metric for forecasting future performance. The second is the estimated squad value from Transfermarkt, another metric that has consistently demonstrated its predictive power. This can be viewed as a proxy for a team’s talent level.

That alone provides a solid foundation for a power-rating system, but it is uninteresting to simply state “xG and money,” even if it is often accurate. With assistance from Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points, I examined various other metrics and identified two that slightly enhanced the predictions and also aligned intuitively with our understanding of soccer.

The first is PPDA, or passes allowed per defensive action in what is essentially the opposition half. This is the most commonly used measure of a team’s pressing intensity, and my hypothesis for its predictive value is that teams capable of disrupting play high up the field can achieve dominant performances that teams lacking aggressive pressing cannot. These teams are also less likely to be overrun.

The second is pass completion percentage outside of the attacking third — a statistic I first encountered on the site Markstats. This can be seen as the opposite of PPDA — a team’s ability to withstand an opponent’s press. Teams with higher completion percentages are less likely to be overwhelmed and stalled, and this may also indicate how aggressive opponents are when facing them. If opposing teams are reluctant to apply pressure during buildup play — resulting in a high completion percentage — it suggests something about the team’s quality as well.

For simplicity, our rankings consist solely of these four metrics. Initially, we use all of them to evaluate the teams on a scale of 100, then convert those ratings into what essentially projects the team’s goal differential in an average match. Here’s how our rankings appear:

1. Arsenal

This is quite evident. Based on pure underlying performance through 22 matches, Arsenal stands apart — followed by a group of four other teams. They are also flawless in the Champions League.

This is undoubtedly the top team in the world at this moment:

2. Manchester City

Notably, Manchester City is much closer to Arsenal in the power ratings than in the expected-goals table. Why is this the case? City began the season with the second-most valuable squad in the league and is completing nearly 90% of their passes outside the attacking third.

3. Liverpool

When a reporter directly inquires if another coach is being considered to replace you, it signifies … well, it signifies many different things unrelated to Arne Slot or Liverpool and more about the broader state of affairs. Nonetheless, such inquiries typically arise only when there is a growing sense of unrest surrounding the team you are managing.

Despite drawing their last four Premier League fixtures, Liverpool has been among the stronger teams in the league over the past 10 matches:

Much of the discontent surrounding the team seems to stem from an aesthetic critique rather than a qualitative one.

Liverpool has generated sufficient chances to secure victories in most of their recent matches, but supporters are accustomed to witnessing Jürgen Klopp’s teams rapidly transition and deliver matches filled with goals. Arne Slot’s current iteration of Liverpool may be effective, but they no longer exhibit the same style of Klopp’s high-tempo football.

This is a statement I have rarely been able to make: seven Premier League teams are pressing more vigorously than Liverpool this season.

4. Chelsea

Despite an xG differential that is closer to Leeds than Liverpool, Chelsea’s rating is not far behind the defending champions. This is due to their large, talented squad and an aggressive pressing and possession style that has generally yielded results in the Premier League.

We will see if this continues under new manager Liam Rosenior, whose team had less than 50% possession and attempted only six shots in a fortunate 2-0 victory over Brentford last weekend.

play0:31Rosenior admits he has to ‘earn’ support from Chelsea fans

Liam Rosenior speaks following Chelsea’s 1-0 win over Pafos FC in the Champions League.

5. Manchester United

The recent victory over Manchester City was significant and impressive, but it is unclear if we actually gained much insight into Manchester United — or, more specifically, United under Michael Carrick.

City entered the match with what I would describe as a fourth-choice defense at best, and United capitalized on those four players repeatedly. That strategy will not be feasible in most upcoming matches, and when it is, those opponents will likely possess a much stronger defensive lineup than City did.

Nonetheless, this team performed reasonably well under Ruben Amorim. If Carrick can maintain this momentum, they are likely one of the top five teams in a league that is expected to secure five Champions League spots next season.

6. Newcastle United

Newcastle’s advantage over Manchester United in our ratings stems from their more controlled possession while delivering comparable-quality performances with similar pressing intensity.

Manchester United is achieving their lowest percentage of pre-final-third passes in any of the last nine seasons. In contrast, Eddie Howe’s team is completing a higher percentage of passes outside the attacking third than in any season during that same timeframe.

7. Brighton & Hove Albion

Although it hasn’t translated into results or even performances, Brighton is playing like a team that typically accumulates many points: they have the league’s lowest PPDA and a buildup-pass completion percentage that exceeds all but last season’s top four and Aston Villa. They also possess a theoretically deep and talented squad.

I am uncertain if I fully believe it — not every manager and group of players can convert pressing and possession into points — but if you look closely, you might convince yourself that the Seagulls have a higher potential than any team outside of the six ranked ahead of them.

8. Tottenham Hotspur

If you are still questioning whether the Premier League is weak or if all the teams are strong, let me draw your attention to what is occurring in North London.

This is what Tottenham accomplished against West Ham, at home.

Then they followed it up with this against Borussia Dortmund, at home:

Their underlying statistics in the league are genuinely alarming — ranked 16th! — yet they currently sit in fifth place with one match remaining in the Champions League’s league phase. They are one point ahead of PSG, the reigning European champions.

9. Aston Villa

I consider this a positive outcome for the ratings.

A … positive outcome? A positive outcome?!?! This team is tied for second place and you’re suggesting that a homemade algorithm placing them behind Brighton and Spurs is performing well? It’s rating them as the most average team in the league!

To begin addressing my italicized self: Power rankings are meaningless if they merely reflect the standings. If that is what you want, then … just consult the standings! We aim to isolate the underlying factors that contribute to winning and then utilize them to identify the teams most likely to earn points in the future.

Simultaneously, merely examining xG would rank this team all the way down in 12th. Villa possesses more talent than that, and by emphasizing their unique, City-like approach of patient possession without pressing, I believe we are recognizing some of the reasons why Unai Emery’s teams consistently outperform their underlying statistics each season.

play2:42Why Aston Villa are ‘not title contenders’ after loss to Everton

Frank Leboeuf and Craig Burley discuss Aston Villa’s 1-0 defeat to Everton in the Premier League.

10. Brentford

This is one of those instances where, if I solely analyzed the statistics and observed the matches, I would assert that Brentford is a significantly better team than Tottenham. However, if my life depended on it and Brentford and Tottenham faced off on neutral ground, I would likely choose Tottenham? And I might not survive? I am uncertain.

Brentford has excelled this season, but they have done so with a style that is challenging to consistently convert into dominant performances.

11. Nottingham Forest

By every measure except points, this is a slightly below-average team: they press like one, they pass like one, they create and concede chances like one, and they possess the talent of one.

12. AFC Bournemouth

Six teams in the league are completing fewer than 80% of their passes outside the attacking third, and five of those teams have a PPDA ranking in the bottom six of the league. This is quite common: you defend, absorb pressure, and then counter with vertical, higher-risk passes. It has been the underdog strategy since someone in Scotland realized that passing the ball to a teammate was permissible.

As for the other team among the six? It is Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth, who are pressing more aggressively than all but Brighton and Chelsea.

13. Fulham

Marco Silva’s squad benefits from their reliability with the ball outside the attacking third. They are below average in all other areas, but they are achieving a higher percentage of their buildup passes than all but six other teams.

Silva is extracting more from this team — an aging squad lacking significant high-end talent — than one might expect, and I believe the unique tactical profile contributes to this.

14. Crystal Palace

If we had initiated these rankings earlier, I believe they would have forecasted the current decline of Palace. Not, you know, the cultural collapse, where they allowed their captain to depart for a lesser fee than they were offered over the summer, and then their manager announced he would leave after the season and then set the club’s team-building efforts ablaze in a post-match press conference.

However, despite some truly impressive performances in the initial months of the season, Palace was achieving this without any control: of possession, of opposition territory.

If a major club intends to hire Oliver Glasner, they must determine whether he can implement a different approach with a superior group of players and a significantly higher performance standard.

15. Leeds United

They have moved up to 16th in the standings and are currently closer to 10th place than the relegation zone. My “Daniel Farke for Manager of the Year” campaign is unstoppable.

16. Everton

This entry surprised me more than any other on the list. Everton is in 10th! Jack Grealish! Three points behind fifth! Just defeated Aston Villa! Yet these ratings place them nearly on par with Wolves.

What accounts for this? Their xG differential ranks only 16th, and they continue to play a style reminiscent of pure, distilled David Moyes football, lacking much pressing or controlled possession.

17. Wolverhampton Wanderers

I think I still categorize Wolves among my “three worst teams”