LONDON — There is a valid discussion regarding England’s chances of winning the World Cup with Harry Kane. The 1-0 home loss to Japan on Tuesday strongly indicates that their prospects are bleak without him.
Kane’s omission from the starting lineup resulted from a minor injury sustained during England’s final training session yesterday. The 32-year-old generally maintains an excellent fitness record, yet this type of situation could occur during what England hopes will be a seven-match journey in this summer’s tournament.
Prior to Monday’s session, manager Thomas Tuchel spoke to the media and was queried about his plans should Kane be unavailable, having tried out Dominic Solanke and Dominic Calvert-Lewin during Friday’s 1-1 draw against Uruguay.
He hesitated, chuckled, and remarked: “Good question… you’ve seen my answer already that I’m maybe not close. I have some ideas, but I will not make them public.”
England’s performance against Japan was similarly unimpressive. Instead of continuing with Solanke or Calvert-Lewin, he chose to deploy Phil Foden as a false nine, with Cole Palmer in a central role and Morgan Rogers positioned on the right flank, while Anthony Gordon occupied the left in a narrow formation.
Palmer’s most notable moment came when he lost possession, leading to the match-winning goal, a well-executed play initiated and concluded by Kaoru Mitoma, marking Japan as the first Asian nation to defeat England.
Foden’s evident decline in confidence and form persisted. England attempted 19 shots, yet none were taken by Foden, who was substituted after an hour with only 22 touches. In contrast, England’s goalkeeper Jordan Pickford recorded 39 touches.
Tuchel’s tactical adjustments did little to awaken England from its lethargy. Solanke took the lead, Rogers moved to a No. 10 role, and Jarrod Bowen entered to play on the right. Marcus Rashford provided a slight boost when he replaced Gordon with 19 minutes remaining, but England’s late surge, a generous term for the limited pressure they exerted, came primarily from set-pieces where Harry Maguire and Dan Burn created challenges.
Japan’s failure to clear one such corner allowed Lewis Hall an opportunity to challenge Zion Suzuki, but the visitors’ goalkeeper made a smart save low to his right.
This was one of England’s four shots on target during a match where Ben White faced boos before kickoff, and the entire team was booed at full time by those still present. The majority of the 79,233 crowd had departed long before the conclusion to make their way home.
Any team would miss Kane. He is arguably the top striker in world football currently — with 53 goals in 45 appearances for Bayern Munich and England this season — and as captain, his influence off the pitch is as significant as his on-field presence in establishing the standards England aspires to achieve.
Since the beginning of the 2018 World Cup, where Kane won the Golden Boot, England has a 65% win rate from 88 matches when he has started. This figure drops to 57% from 14 matches without him, but his absence feels much more significant than those statistics imply.
“Without Harry Kane, we don’t possess the same threat,” Tuchel stated. “Bayern Munich lacks the same threat in his absence. No team in the world has the same threat; it is simply normal.
“If top teams and nations depend on top players, that is absolutely normal. Furthermore, Harry’s departure means we not only lost him as a player but also as a personality. It is always somewhat disruptive when the captain leaves the last training session after 15 minutes and is out of the squad.
“We can win matches without Harry; we will win matches without Harry; we have won without Harry, but it is easier to secure victories with Harry.”
Nonetheless, the necessity for a viable alternative arises not only from injury. Kane often struggled as England advanced to the final of Euro 2024, and the extreme heat conditions expected in the United States this summer will likely increase the importance of squad depth and rotation.
Ollie Watkins was excluded from this squad because Tuchel feels sufficiently familiar with what the Aston Villa forward can offer. Solanke, Calvert-Lewin, and Foden all failed to capitalize on the opportunity presented to them during this international break.
Watkins, therefore, undoubtedly has a strong case for inclusion in the final 26-man squad, although the demand in certain circles for Brighton’s veteran forward Danny Welbeck may intensify if he continues to perform well in the Premier League — the 35-year-old is currently the highest-scoring Englishman in the league.
Tuchel was, of course, justified in his experimentation here. The performance may have been lackluster, but the broader context is more crucial. However, that broader context does have imperfections, particularly England’s record against top-tier teams, which has long been a concern, even while reaching the finals of the last two European Championships.
England secured their World Cup spot with a perfect qualifying campaign, winning all eight matches without conceding a goal. However, they have now faced three top-20 ranked nations under Tuchel: Senegal, Uruguay, and Japan. Their record stands at one draw and two losses.
These results can be attributed to experimentation. Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, and Bukayo Saka will all return. Yet, the purpose of that experimentation is to discover solutions, and it appears Tuchel is no closer to finding a way to manage without Kane as the World Cup draws nearer.
