Current top teams in Europe: Barcelona and Bayern lead the way
Throughout the majority of the 2025-26 season, two soccer clubs have consistently distinguished themselves in Europe. Arsenal and Bayern Munich concluded the Champions League group stage with the highest point totals — Arsenal achieved a flawless 24 points from eight matches, while Bayern only dropped points against Arsenal — and they have dominated their respective domestic leagues from nearly the beginning of the season. Additionally, both teams remain active in their domestic cup tournaments.
These clubs have set the benchmark this season, but the campaign is lengthy. Are they still the top teams in Europe as the season’s final phase approaches? Not necessarily. They are among the elite, but they are not alone.
Periodically, I assess teams’ performance over the past couple of months using what I refer to as “adjusted goal differential,” which is a combination of 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11 vs. 11 scenarios. This metric is not adjusted for opponents and thus lacks high predictive power, but it indicates which teams are performing well. Based on league matches, selected domestic cup matches* and UEFA competitions, here are the 30 most in-form teams from Europe’s Big Five leagues since January 5.
(*Due to numerous matches involving first-division teams against much lower-division clubs in the FA Cup and Coupe de France, those will be excluded.)
1. Barcelona (Last time: 8)
Past two months: 13 matches, 30 points (2.31 PPG), +1.65 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Athletic Club (March 7), at Newcastle (Champions League, March 10), Sevilla (March 15), Newcastle (Champions League, March 18), Rayo Vallecano (March 22), at Atletico Madrid (April 5)
(Note: Matches against other teams in this top 30 list are italicized in each team’s upcoming schedule)
The Copa del Rey featured several lower-division routs in this two-month period, but I chose to include it because Barcelona’s adjusted goal differential is significantly higher than that of other teams, which accounts for their 4-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semifinals. This illustrates their overall quality. In this 13-match span, they have secured six victories by three goals — including one in the return leg against Atleti — and three more by two goals.
While the level of competition hasn’t been exceptional, Barcelona has maintained an extraordinarily high standard, and they have been somewhat unlucky: Robert Lewandowski, Ferran Torres, Dani Olmo, and Fermín López have collectively scored only 11 goals from shots valued at 19.3 xG. This quartet managed 2.0 xG but failed to find the net in a 2-1 defeat to Real Sociedad.
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Hansi Flick is my preferred manager in Europe, not necessarily because he is the best — although he certainly ranks highly — but because he reveals all his strategies in every match.
To defeat Barcelona, one must play their style. They will dominate the field with their short passing and exceptionally high defensive line, compelling opponents to play directly (and likely get caught offside) or lose possession quickly. They will attempt significantly more shots than their opponents and will require you to convert a few of the limited high-quality chances you create.
As the new year progresses, teams will increasingly need to find a way to contain Lamine Yamal. The 18-year-old has been in outstanding form, netting nine goals (third among all players in this sample), creating 48 chances (first), winning 106 ground duels (first), and successfully completing 12 one-on-ones in the box (first). Remarkable.
Barcelona is performing at this level despite the poor finishing from players other than Yamal and the limited minutes from either Pedri or Raphinha, who are possibly two of the three most crucial players for executing Flick’s tactics. If they can maintain their health for the first time in a while, and if the aforementioned quartet begins to convert chances at an average rate, they could easily emerge as the top team in Europe as the season progresses.
One thing is certain: The upcoming month will present challenges. Barcelona will visit San Mames this weekend, followed by four matches in four weeks against teams currently in this top 30. To keep their aspirations for a LaLiga and Champions League double alive, they will need to perform at a level close to the best in Europe.
2. Bayern Munich (Last time: 1)
Past two months: 12 matches, 31 points (2.58 PPG), +1.32 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: Borussia Monchengladbach (March 6), at Atalanta (Champions League, March 10), at Bayer Leverkusen (March 14), Atalanta (Champions League, March 18), Union Berlin (March 21), at Freiburg (April 4)
Bayern’s strong performance in the first half of the season makes their recent shakiness more noticeable, yet they remain the second-highest ranked team on this list. They have started to allow opponents more high-quality scoring opportunities: Among the 96 teams in this two-month sample, they rank 71st in xG allowed per shot and 49th in the number of high-quality shots (0.2 xG or higher) that opponents are attempting per match. Nevertheless, they are still very much Bayern. Harry Kane has scored 15 goals in this period (first), Michael Olise has provided 10 assists (first), Luis Díaz has created 33 chances (fourth), and despite an unexpected loss to Augsburg and a draw against Hamburg, their 2.58 points per game in this sample is comfortably the highest.
Oh, to have their issues.
3. Paris Saint-Germain (Last time: 6)
Past two months: 12 matches, 26 points (2.17 PPG), +1.20 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: Monaco (March 6), Chelsea (Champions League, March 11), Nantes (March 15), at Chelsea (Champions League, March 17), at Nice (March 22), Toulouse (April 5)
They have yet to reach the heights of last season, and whenever they come close (as seen in their 5-0 victory over Marseille), it is often followed by an unexpected setback (such as their 3-1 loss to Rennes). However, the balance between quality and uncertainties continues to improve, and with Barcelona missing Raphinha and Pedri, some of PSG’s top players have yet to find their best form: Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé has played only 52% of minutes in this match sample, right back Achraf Hakimi has played 57%, and midfielder Fabián Ruiz remains sidelined due to injury.
With a slightly more stable lineup, PSG could easily still repeat in the Champions League.
4. Liverpool (Last time: unranked)
Past two months: 12 matches, 21 points (1.75 PPG), +1.05 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Wolves (FA Cup, March 6), at Galatasaray (Champions League, March 10), Tottenham Hotspur (March 15), Galatasaray (Champions League, March 18), at Brighton (March 21)
They were outperformed in losses to Bournemouth in January (xG differential: minus-1.6) and Manchester City (minus-1.7), but Liverpool is a strong team, appearing capable of a Champions League run. Despite competing in the demanding Premier League, they have achieved a positive xG differential in nine of their 12 matches during this period, and they were quite unfortunate in their recent loss to Wolves (xG differential: plus-1.4) and draws against Fulham (plus-0.7) and Burnley (plus-2.9!).
They are attempting significantly more shots than their opponents, creating far better chances, counterattacking effectively when necessary, and nearly every attacker — from Hugo Ekitike to Florian Wirtz, Dominik Szoboszlai, and Mohamed Salah — has been making impactful contributions recently.
5. Lens (Last time: 14)
Past two months: 7 matches, 13 points (1.86 PPG), +1.05 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Lyon (Coupe de France, March 5), Metz (March 8), at Lorient (March 15), Angers (March 22), at Lille (April 5)
A 3-2 close loss to Monaco (xG differential: plus-0.1) and an unfortunate draw with Strasbourg (plus-0.8) likely dashed Lens’ Ligue 1 title aspirations — they are now four points behind PSG — but they continue to craft an engaging narrative this season. They have received a combined nine goals, nine assists, and 109 chances created from 32-year-old Adrien Thomasson and 33-year-old Florian Thauvin, along with 10 goals from 30-year-old Wesley Saïd, and only PSG has conceded fewer goals.
Manager Pierre Sage has harnessed remarkable potential, and Lens should secure a return to the Champions League next year as a result.
6. Inter Milan (Last time: 7)
Past two months: 17 matches, 38 points (2.24 PPG), +1.03 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at AC Milan (March 8), Atalanta (March 14), at Fiorentina (March 22), Roma (April 4)
In their last 15 Serie A matches, Inter have dropped only two points. They are on track for 94 points in Serie A; no team has achieved more since Juventus reached 95 in 2017-18. They have advanced to the Coppa Italia semifinals (where they drew at Como in the first leg). Domestically, this has been one of the club’s finest seasons.
However, their Champions League campaign has not gone as planned, as they lost three of their last four matches and were eliminated by Bodo/Glimt in the knockout phase playoffs. Yet, even if Serie A isn’t exceptional this season, one does not dominate to this extent without being truly outstanding.
7. Arsenal (Last time: 2)
Past two months: 14 matches, 31 points (2.21 PPG), +1.01 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Mansfield (FA Cup, March 7), at Bayer Leverkusen (Champions League, March 11), Everton (March 14), Bayer Leverkusen (Champions League, March 17), vs. Manchester City (League Cup final, March 22)
When adjusting for the quality of opponents, Arsenal would likely rank higher on this list. In their 14 matches over the past two months, they faced five teams ranked 12th or higher here. (Their results in those five matches: four wins and a draw.) They are ranked No. 1 by a significant margin in Opta’s power ratings, which currently give them a 94% chance of winning the Premier League and a 27% chance of winning the Champions League.
The standard might have dipped slightly, and their one-in-four chance in the Champions League serves as a reminder that they still have a challenging path ahead: They may need to defeat Barcelona in the semifinals, followed by either Bayern, PSG, City, Liverpool, or Chelsea in the finals. However, they remain the top team in Europe, even if we briefly considered their vulnerability in the Premier League.
8. VfB Stuttgart (Last time: 26)
Past two months: 14 matches, 29 points (2.07 PPG), +1.00 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Mainz (March 7), Porto (Europa League, March 12), RB Leipzig (March 15), at Porto (Europa League, March 19), at Augsburg (March 22), Borussia Dortmund (April 4)
In 14 matches over the past two months, Stuttgart faced only two teams in this top-30, losing 2-0 to Roma and defeating Bayer Leverkusen 4-1. However, they achieved a positive xG differential in both encounters and have done so in 12 of their last 14 overall.
If you need a remedy after watching Premier League teams play aggressively and score solely from set pieces, watch Stuttgart instead. Their defense is above average, but they are recognized for an attack that netted at least three goals in nine of these 14 matches, primarily in open play. They are receiving contributions from numerous players, but few in Europe are performing as spectacularly as Deniz Undav, who has tallied eight goals and seven assists during this period.
Sebastian Hoeness has been with Stuttgart long enough to transform his squad multiple times, and the current version may be his finest yet.
9. AS Roma (Last time: 29)
Past two months: 12 matches, 22 points (1.83 PPG), +0.94 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Genoa (March 8), at Bologna (Europa League, March 12), at Como (March 15), Bologna (Europa League, March 19), Lecce (March 22), at Inter Milan (April 4)
While they haven’t faced Inter in some time — we’ll have to wait another month for that matchup — Roma is likely the second-hottest team in Italy following a rough December. Gian Piero Gasperini’s squad has lost only one of its last nine Serie A matches and has generated a positive xG differential in 11 of 12 matches overall. Donyell Malen has scored six goals in seven matches since joining from Aston Villa (whom they could face in the Europa League quarterfinals), and the young trio of Matìas Soulè (22), Wesley (22), and Niccolò Pisilli (21) is thriving under Gasperini’s leadership. They may also welcome Paulo Dybala back from injury soon.
10. Hoffenheim (Last time: unranked)
Past two months: 9 matches, 19 points (2.11 PPG), +0.93 adj. goal differential
Next month’s schedule: at Heidenheim (March 7), Wolfsburg (March 14), at RB Leipzig (March 20), Mainz (April 4)
A year ago, Hoffenheim struggled through a challenging season and finished just three points above the relegation playoff. Now they sit in third place in the Bundesliga and are poised to secure their second-ever Champions League berth (they went winless in the group stage in 2018-19). They won six out of seven to start 2026, and while they were outclassed in a disappointing 5-1 defeat
