Álvarez appears to be inopportune circumstances at Atlético Madrid.

Given his moniker, it seems fitting that Julián Álvarez’s current status, performance, mindset, and prospects are enveloped in uncertainty. Known as La Araña, the Spider, since the age of four, he has been crafting aspirations for many years, yet he appears somewhat ensnared at this moment.

Numerous inquiries arise. Why has he not been scoring or significantly impacting Atlético Madrid’s recent season? Why is he struggling to establish a solid partnership with fellow Atlético striker Alexander Sørloth? Can Arsenal meet his buyout clause, and would he consider a return to the Premier League? Alternatively, could Barcelona somehow lure Atlético’s prized forward to succeed Robert Lewandowski?

In the meantime, Álvarez must be concerned: Will this lackluster performance affect his standing with Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni as the Albiceleste aim to defend their World Cup title in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico this summer?

He cannot express this, so I will articulate it for him: As he approaches his 26th birthday on Saturday, the most desirable gift would be the revelation that he is on the brink of joining a club where the playing style aligns with his strengths, where the coach has complete confidence in him and structures the team to support him, and where the allure of trophy opportunities is more pronounced than at Atlético. The very fact that Álvarez appears disheartened, somewhat adrift, and, most critically, ineffective has prompted Andrea Berta at Arsenal and Deco at Barcelona to contemplate whether they can entice him away from Atlético.

To provide some context that, despite being a top-tier, dynamic, creative, and elite goal scorer, he is currently struggling, here are some statistics.

In his 20 starts (plus one substitute appearance) in LaLiga, La Araña has netted seven goals and provided three assists. However, Atlético is so far from contention that they are unlikely to secure the title this season, and the more one examines how Álvarez fits into the hyper-conservative approach of his compatriot coach, Diego Simeone, the more the situation appears bleak.

Domestically, Álvarez has made only 13 passes to fellow striker Sørloth this season, while receiving the ball from the tall Norwegian—who has been significantly more productive than Atlético’s No. 19 for the second consecutive season—18 times. That, however you interpret it, does not constitute a partnership.

Álvarez has attempted 41 shots on goal, resulting in a 17% success rate for his seven goals. Clearly off form. There is no debate about that.

While not advocating for the notion of rough, aggressive defenders targeting a smaller striker, it is surprising that Álvarez has only been fouled 14 times, given his playing style and the threat he should pose. If he were in more dangerous positions and scoring more frequently, that number would undoubtedly be higher.

Examining his heat maps reveals a trend where (in 70% of his Liga matches) they extend nearly from box to box. This is not where a prolific, dangerous forward should be operating. Álvarez is winning the admiration of fans and teammates through significant defensive contributions, but that is not his primary role.

His high-intensity mid-length running ranks 217th in LaLiga. Even more concerning, his sprinting numbers, essential for a threatening striker, place him 9th within the Atlético squad and 235th in the league. In terms of ball-winning, considering the amount of time he spends tracking back and forth across the pitch, he ranks 403rd in LaLiga.

The final point? He has not scored domestically since November 1. For a player whose overall statistics show 40 goals and 13 assists in 86 appearances for Atlético, it is evident: there is an issue.

The image of an unfulfilled, underperforming talent who, if transferred to an attacking, system-oriented, well-coached, ambitious club like Arsenal or Barcelona, would likely begin to produce impressive statistics instead of mediocre ones.

In the Champions League, the scenario is notably different. Lesser teams such as Eintracht Frankfurt, Union St.-Gilloise, and PSV Eindhoven, unfamiliar with Atlético’s style, have fallen victim to their “create big moments” approach, and in that competition, Álvarez has scored four goals in six matches. His goal against Inter Milan in a 2-1 victory over last season’s runners-up was a glimpse of what he should be delivering more consistently.

It is crucial that if they defeat Bodo/Glimt in Madrid on Wednesday, Atlético has a significant opportunity to secure a place in the vital top eight. If they fail, the pressure will mount: Álvarez is a talented, dedicated, disciplined, creative, and seasoned player who is about to enter the prime years of his career.

However, challenges lie ahead.

Not only is he under contract with Atlético until June 2030, but his buyout clause is firmly established at €500 million. This is an unattainable figure.

Financially, does Atlético need to part ways with the 25-year-old? No.

Atlético has generated nearly €148 million from Champions League revenues alone over the past season and a half, with the potential for significantly more if they advance to the later stages in the coming months. The club is also undergoing a substantial ownership transition, resulting in financial stability—thanks to the investment from Apollo Sports Capital.

In interviews, Álvarez has handled inquiries about a potential move away from Los Colchoneros with composure.

Recently, while promoting a sponsorship, he was asked by Marca: “You’re often linked with a move to the Camp Nou. Does that bother you?”

Álvarez replied: “Look, none of that bothers me at all. I try not to seek out that kind of speculation, but I am aware of it. It’s more what’s said on social media than in reality. I try to distance myself from all that and focus on myself, on improving as a footballer, and on winning.”

This does not, in my opinion, reflect any form of denial. Most notably, Álvarez is performing like a potential superstar who increasingly feels that he is in the “wrong place, wrong time.”

The solutions are clear: accept that your golden handcuffs (that €500 million release clause) are unbreakable and continue, or communicate to your employers that either Arsenal or Barcelona is your preferred destination, indicating your willingness to create a stir to facilitate that move, and, similar to Antoine Griezmann in his time, advocate—both publicly and privately—for a negotiated exit.

Mikel Arteta and Hansi Flick will be watching developments with keen interest in the coming weeks and months. Drawn into the spider’s web.