Teofimo Lopez and Shakur Stevenson: Selections, forecasts, and additional details
Teofimo Lopez Jr. will defend his WBO junior welterweight title on Saturday against Shakur Stevenson at Madison Square Garden in New York.
Lopez (22-1, 13 KOs), a former unified lightweight champion, is making the fourth defense of the title he secured with a unanimous decision over Josh Taylor in June 2023 at the Theater at MSG. Since that victory, Lopez, who enters the bout as a +250 underdog according to DraftKings Sportsbook, has achieved decision wins over Jamaine Ortiz and Steve Claggett in 2024, followed by a victory against Arnold Barboza Jr. last May. Although he has not achieved a stoppage since his seventh-round knockout of Pedro Campa in August 2022, Lopez has showcased several commanding performances, particularly against Taylor and Barboza.
Lopez’s combination of power, footwork, and athleticism may be crucial to his success, especially if he can close the distance and land combinations against a challenging opponent.
Stevenson (24-0, 11 KOs), the current WBC lightweight champion, is moving up to 140 pounds for the first time as he aims to become a four-division world champion after title reigns at featherweight, junior lightweight, and lightweight. Widely recognized as one of boxing’s top defensive technicians, Stevenson (-330 favorite) has faced criticism at times for his cautious style, but his ability to control the ring and evade punches has made him nearly untouchable as a professional. He also demonstrated an offensive edge in a commanding win over William Zepeda last July.
This matchup presents a classic stylistic contrast: Can Lopez penetrate Stevenson’s defense and impose his offense from close range? Or will Stevenson manage the distance with his jab and footwork, neutralizing Lopez’s power?
Hall of Fame commentator Al Bernstein, former welterweight champion Shawn Porter, and former junior middleweight champion Raul Marquez analyze how the fight might unfold and provide their predictions for the outcome.
Editor’s note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.
Shawn Porter, former welterweight champion
The match up
Lopez possesses the innate qualities in boxing that cannot be taught — athleticism, explosiveness, and power. Stevenson has the natural ability to find timing and control the distance and pace of the fight. While Lopez may have a broader skill set, he must determine the right approach against arguably the most elusive boxer in the sport, and crucially, when to implement it. This fight is Stevenson’s to lose and Lopez’s to win.
How does Lopez win?
His patience will be essential. He must begin the fight with composure, avoiding the temptation to rush in for a big punch. The more he attempts that, the easier it will be for Stevenson to anticipate him and establish his rhythm. If he fights off rhythm by employing a simple jab and feints to create openings for combinations, his patience can help dictate the fight’s tempo, leading to opportunities.
How does Stevenson win?
Stevenson simply needs to be himself to secure a victory. He prefers space and excels at controlling the pace. He must compel Lopez to engage him and fight on his front foot. An aggressive opponent plays to Stevenson’s advantage. If he deviates from his usual style, that could lead to his defeat. He fought aggressively against Zepeda, so he understands that he cannot afford to do that with Lopez, who is also a significant offensive threat. However, as long as he maintains his identity as a skilled counterpuncher, he can prevail.
Fight prediction
I maintain that it’s Stevenson’s fight to lose, and if it is someone’s fight to lose, it suggests they should likely win. It’s a challenging fight to predict, but I will say Stevenson emerges victorious.
Raul Marquez, former U.S. Olympian and junior middleweight champion, boxing analyst
Breaking down the fight
I’m pleased this fight is occurring at the right time. I appreciated Shakur’s performance in his last bout against [William] Zepeda. He was not in his typical defensive mode; instead, he was very offensive, engaging with Zepeda, which was entertaining. Teofimo is one of those fighters whose performance can vary based on how he feels that day. When Teofimo is at his best, he is a skilled and confident fighter with great footwork. Shakur is a highly intelligent boxer. While he may not possess the power that Lopez has, his ring intelligence and speed certainly compensate for it.
This represents boxing at its highest level. I believe that after three or four rounds, Teofimo needs to take control. I genuinely think he is stronger and possesses more power. But can he achieve that against Shakur? I’m uncertain.
How does Stevenson win?
Shakur must box effectively by utilizing his jab, straight shots down the middle, and maintaining movement. He should continuously circle around Lopez, keep his foot in the center of the ring, and avoid the ropes and corners. Additionally, he must throw punches in combinations, clinch when necessary, lean on Lopez, and then return to the outside with the jab, doubling up as needed. The key for him is to remain focused, composed, and box effectively.
How does Lopez win?
There will be a few rounds of both fighters trying to gauge each other, but eventually, he will need to launch an attack. When he is on his game, he is elusive, comfortable, relaxed, and enjoying himself in the ring. When he reaches that state, he becomes formidable and difficult to defeat. The key is to launch attacks from various angles with combinations while consistently moving forward.
Fight prediction
I believe Shakur is favored to win, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Teofimo pulls off an upset. I am going to side with Teofimo for the upset.
Al Bernstein, boxing commentator and member of the International Boxing Hall of Fame
The match up
This matchup is intriguing because Stevenson is an excellent boxer and a capable puncher, while Lopez is also a skilled boxer-puncher. Despite their differing stances, they share somewhat similar skill sets. However, I believe Stevenson is more of a pure boxer than Lopez. The critical question is which version of Lopez will show up?
In terms of consistency, the advantage goes to Stevenson, even though he has had a couple of performances that did not meet expectations. Another aspect of this fight is the uncertainty regarding whether either fighter will perform outside their typical style. Will we see Stevenson adopt a more aggressive approach than usual? I thought he displayed a burst of offense against [William] Zepeda [in July]. And will Lopez perhaps take a more calculated approach than anticipated? Opponents often try to pressure Stevenson due to his boxing style — will Lopez, who possesses boxing skills, adjust his strategy? These are some questions to consider.
How does Lopez win?
For Lopez, it is crucial that he puts forth his best effort. When he does, he is a very capable fighter.
At his best, he embodies the definition of a boxer-puncher, with a strong emphasis on punching power. He has the ability to knock opponents out, which he will need to do in this fight. He must be aggressive; that is essential, and he will need to increase his output. Lopez must ensure he is active in this bout, as doing so could help him win rounds. In previous fights, he has experienced periods of inactivity, which he cannot afford in this matchup.
If he remains busy, focuses on both body and head, and can cut off the ring without chasing Stevenson, he has a chance to succeed.
How does Stevenson win?
I believe he will win by employing his strong boxing skills while ensuring he is sufficiently offensive to win rounds. Shakur must ensure he does enough offensively to secure rounds if the fight goes the distance, which is a distinct possibility.
Fight prediction
The challenge in picking against Stevenson lies in the fact that Lopez has a loss and Stevenson generally wins most rounds in his bouts. Thus, it gives the impression that he can control the fight. However, whether he can maintain that control at this weight class and against Lopez remains to be seen. I would give a slight edge to Stevenson, but I consider it a closely contested fight.
