What lies ahead for the 10 teams entering the lottery before the NBA draft?

As the 2025-26 NBA regular season approaches its conclusion, the playoff landscape is becoming more defined for both teams vying for postseason spots and those at the lower end of the standings aiming to make changes.

Following their appearance in the 2025 NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers have significantly declined this season due to injuries. However, they have the potential to secure a top-five pick in the upcoming June draft, which could aid in their pursuit of a championship. The Milwaukee Bucks are also expected to be active this offseason, with Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future being a major topic of discussion.

Our NBA analysts assess the 10 teams at the bottom of the standings, reviewing updates since the trade deadline and whether their strategies for the draft and offseason have shifted.

While it may not be their time to claim the Larry O’Brien Trophy this June, these 10 teams will be focused on the NBA lottery, scheduled for May 10.

Projections are based on ESPN Analytics as of Feb. 23

Jump to a likely lottery team:
Kings | Wizards | Nets
Pacers | Jazz | Hawks
Mavericks | Bulls | Grizzlies | Bucks

1. Sacramento Kings

• Current record: 13-46

• Projected record: 18-64

• Chance at the No. 1 pick: 13.9%

What’s new after the trade deadline?

Player deactivations and numerous blowout defeats. Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and recent acquisition De’Andre Hunter — three of their four highest-paid players — have all recently undergone surgeries that will end their seasons. The Kings were only managing occasional wins when their veterans were available, and they have now shifted towards a youth movement that has exacerbated their struggles. They ended a franchise-record 16-game losing streak on Monday with a victory over Memphis, bringing their road record to 4-26 this season. — Anthony Slater

How have the Kings’ draft plans changed?

Sacramento is in the process of overhauling an aging and costly roster and should not be overly concerned with fit. Ideally, the player selected this year will serve as a foundational piece for the team’s future. The Kings’ draft strategy should primarily focus on long-term potential and how they envision their style of play moving forward. The priority should be to select the best available player, with other considerations to follow. — Jeremy Woo

How could Sacramento approach the offseason and free agency?

With the worst record in the NBA and the fourth-oldest roster, the Kings must emphasize youth. This can be achieved by trading Sabonis, DeRozan, and LaVine.

Additionally, Sacramento needs to address its financial situation. The Hunter trade has increased their salary commitments for next season, pushing them over the luxury tax threshold and likely into the second apron when accounting for a high lottery pick.

There is some financial flexibility with DeRozan’s partially guaranteed contract — his $25.7 million salary for next season is only guaranteed for $10 million. — Bobby Marks

2. Washington Wizards

• Current record: ​16-40

• Projected record: 21-61

• Chance at the No. 1 pick: 13.6%

What’s new after the trade deadline?

Will Trae Young or Anthony Davis join their new teammates this season? Young has been sidelined since Dec. 27 due to an MCL sprain and a thigh bruise, but the team announced last week that he will “ramp up” basketball activities. Davis has been out since Jan. 8 as he recovers from ligament damage in his hand, with no timetable set for his return. — Tim Bontemps

How have the Wizards’ draft plans changed?

Young’s presence is a key factor, as it may (and should) deter Washington from pursuing a true point guard in the draft. Young and his max contract are expected to remain with the team for the foreseeable future, which likely excludes players such as Kingston Flemings (Houston), Darius Acuff (Arkansas), and Mikel Brown (Louisville) from Washington’s draft considerations. — Woo

play2:37Rich Eisen breaks down Anthony Davis’ trade to the Wizards

Rich Eisen reacts to the breaking news that Anthony Davis has been traded to the Washington Wizards.

How could Washington approach the offseason and free agency?

Washington began its free agency preparations five months early by trading for former All-Stars Young and Davis. With limited cap space, the focus this summer will be on ensuring both players are healthy and integrated with their new teammates.

The offseason priorities will include negotiating new contracts for Young, Davis, and 2023 lottery pick Bilal Coulibaly. Young has a $49 million player option and could either opt in and extend or become a free agent and sign for less money but with guaranteed years. On Aug. 6, Davis will be eligible to sign a four-year extension. Coulibaly can extend his contract up to the last day of the regular season. — Marks

3. Brooklyn Nets

• Current record: ​15-41

• Projected record: 22-60

• Chance at the No. 1 pick: 13%

What’s new after the trade deadline?

Releasing Cam Thomas has clarified his future with the team. Although general manager Sean Marks retained all five first-round picks for 2025, hoping they could all contribute immediately, the results have not met expectations. However, the Nets are no longer in a rush to finish at the bottom. Their salary cap situation remains favorable (lowest in the league), and they plan to leverage that space, along with their young roster, to improve through trades. Meanwhile, Nolan Traore and Egor Demin are playing without pressure, and the team is looking ahead to a promising draft in June. — Vincent Goodwill

How have the Nets’ draft plans changed?

Brooklyn made five first-round selections last year and has seen promising early performances from Demin and Traore. The Nets are focused on adding rookies with positional size who can share the ball, and they need a top talent to unify the roster. This lottery is crucial for them. Securing a top pick like Darryn Peterson (Kansas) or AJ Dybantsa (BYU) would significantly enhance their roster. — Woo

How could Brooklyn approach the offseason and free agency?

In addition to the ongoing development of six players on rookie contracts, the Nets must decide on Michael Porter Jr.’s $40.8 million expiring contract. Porter, a free agent in 2027, is eligible for a four-year extension.

The Nets are among the few teams, alongside the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers, projected to have cap space this offseason. Brooklyn could have up to $50 million available and could utilize it in two ways: by extending an offer sheet to a player like restricted free agent Peyton Watson or by using the cap space along with their nine tradable first-round picks (and 19 second-rounders) in a trade. — Marks

4. Indiana Pacers

• Current record: 15-43

• Projected record: 24-58

• Chance at the No. 1 pick: 12%

What’s new after the trade deadline?

The Pacers secured their center of the future by acquiring Ivica Zubac from the LA Clippers, a move that should set them up well for next season. However, Zubac is unlikely to contribute for the remainder of this season, as the team has held him out since the trade deadline to recover from an ankle injury. The Pacers traded their 2026 first-round pick to acquire Zubac, but the selection is top-four protected, providing Indiana with an incentive to enhance its lottery odds this year before attempting another championship run next season. — Jamal Collier

How have the Pacers’ draft plans changed?

If the Pacers’ pick lands in the top four, it would be a significant win for Indiana following their bold move to acquire Zubac. The four top players on our draft board — Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer (Duke), and Caleb Wilson (UNC) — would all be great fits for Indiana and could help initiate another playoff push with Tyrese Haliburton returning next season. The prospect of pairing Peterson with Haliburton in a dynamic backcourt is particularly appealing. — Woo

How could Indiana approach the offseason and free agency?

Aside from retaining their first-round pick, a healthy Haliburton will be the most significant addition to the Pacers’ roster.

After acquiring Zubac at the deadline, Indiana has 13 players under contract and is $2.8 million below the luxury tax. If the Pacers keep their first-round pick, they will be a luxury tax team and likely exceed the first apron. Indiana retains the pick if it lands between 1-4 or 10-30.

Indiana will have eight players eligible for contract extensions this summer, including Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. — Marks

5. Utah Jazz

• Current record: 18-40

• Projected record: 25-57

• Chance at the No. 1 pick: 11.1%

What’s new after the trade deadline?

The Jazz made a bold move in “pre-agency” by executing a surprising blockbuster trade to acquire Jaren Jackson Jr. This trade underscores Utah’s commitment to concluding its lengthy rebuilding phase and making a significant leap towards competitiveness next season. The Jazz surrendered three first-round picks in the deal, including their own in 2027, a considerable cost that the Utah front office deemed worthwhile to secure a former Defensive Player of the Year entering his prime. — Tim MacMahon

How have the Jazz’s draft plans changed?

With the Jazz clearly aiming to compete next season, this will be their best chance at the lottery for some time. They appear well-stocked in the frontcourt with Jackson, Lauri Markkanen, and pending restricted free agent Walker Kessler, but should select the player who best enhances their long-term potential. Given the number of quality guards in this draft class, the pick could serve as an interesting indicator of Utah’s stance on Keyonte George, who has shown significant improvement and is eligible for an extension this year, but is more of a natural scorer than a true point guard. — Woo

play1:40Windhorst: Jazz tanking more ‘egregious,’ but still within the rules

Brian Windhorst comments on allegations that the Utah Jazz have been “tanking” late in games, noting they are not the only franchise doing so.

How could Utah approach the offseason and free agency?

Similar to the Wizards, the Jazz transformed cap space this summer into a star forward. Their focus will now shift to Kessler and George.

Kessler is a restricted free agent after both sides failed to finalize an extension before the season began. However, the Jazz have already committed 68% of next season’s payroll to Jackson and Markkanen.

George, whose breakout season has placed him in contention for Most Improved Player honors, is eligible to sign an extension until the last day of the regular season. — Marks

6. Atlanta Hawks (via NO)

• Current record: ​28-31

• Projected record: 40-42

• Chance at the No. 1 pick: 10.1%

What’s new after the trade deadline?

The Hawks restructured their roster, trading Luke Kennard and Kristaps Porzingis while acquiring Jock Landale, Buddy Hield, and Jonathan Kuminga as they aim to advance out of the East play-in for the first time since 2023. Atlanta will also monitor the standings of the Pelicans and Bucks, as they will receive the better of those teams’ picks. — Bontemps

How have the Hawks’ draft plans changed?

The Hawks are poised to benefit after trading the rights to Derik Queen for this selection (the better of New Orleans and Milwaukee). With a young roster and a relatively clean cap sheet, the team should target the best available blue-chip rookie. A primary area of need is point guard, following the trade of Trae Young to Washington. They could select a dynamic playmaker such as Kingston Flemings or Keaton Wagler, even if Atlanta does not pick at the top of the draft. — Woo

How could Atlanta approach the offseason and free agency?

The Hawks must determine whether to operate as a team with cap space or exceed the threshold. To create room, Atlanta would need to decline Kuminga’s $24.3 million team option, which would generate $30 million in cap space.

If Kuminga remains, Atlanta would still be positioned to add in free agency due to its $15 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception. A key offseason goal will be to enhance the size of its frontcourt. — Marks

7. Dallas Mavericks

• Current record: ​20-36

• Projected record: 31-51

• Chance at the No. 1 pick: 6.9%

What’s new after the trade deadline?

The Mavericks traded Anthony Davis in what was essentially a salary dump a year after he was the centerpiece of the controversial Luka Doncic deal. Dallas’ interim co-GMs also reduced another combined $12 million in salary for next season by including guards D’Angelo Russell and Jaden Hardy in the trade with the Wizards, who provided modest draft compensation and expiring contracts in return. Dallas now has some financial flexibility to initiate what they hope will be a swift rebuild around rookie Cooper Flagg. — MacMahon

How have the Mavericks’ draft plans changed?

Dallas does not control its picks for the foreseeable future, making this a crucial moment to identify the right partner for the emerging Flagg. The Mavericks should carefully consider this point guard class, as several potential long-term starters are available, depending on their lottery position. — Woo

How could Dallas approach the offseason and free agency?

Trading Davis has improved the Mavericks’ financial outlook. Once projected to be a luxury tax and second-apron team, Dallas is now well below both thresholds. The focus will be on assessing the roster and determining who fits alongside Flagg.

Kyrie Irving is anticipated to return and has two years remaining on his contract ($39.4 million and $42.4 million), while Klay Thompson is on an expiring contract. Dallas is expected to be proactive in discussions with Max Christie, who is eligible for a four-year extension worth $92.8 million. — Marks

8. Chicago Bulls

• Current record: 24-34

• Projected record