Thunder continue to be favored in NBA championship odds; Spurs and Celtics trail behind.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will enter the NBA Playoffs as significant favorites to defend their title, but the betting public’s attention will likely shift to the teams ranked just below them in the odds standings.
The Thunder are listed at +110 to secure the NBA Finals, with the San Antonio Spurs (+500) and Boston Celtics (+550) following in the next tier, while the Denver Nuggets (+900) complete the favored teams, as per DraftKings odds. There is a notable gap on the odds board before the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks appear at 17-1 and 18-1, respectively.
The top four teams have attracted substantial bets and handle across the sportsbook landscape, but Oklahoma City and Denver are primarily not liabilities due to their relatively short odds throughout the season.
“Among the genuine contenders, OKC is the best outcome on the futures market,” stated BetMGM sports trader Anthony Parenti in an email release. “The sportsbook is in the fortunate position of being able to support the favorite to win it all.”
The Thunder do not hold the top position by handle at either DraftKings or BetMGM. Instead, San Antonio and Boston have emerged as larger liabilities, primarily because they began the season as long shots and evolved into contenders, allowing bettors to secure them at favorable prices during the season.
The Spurs have been on the rise since selecting superstar Victor Wembanyama first overall in 2023, and with Wemby maintaining relative health, the 2025-26 season turned out to be their breakout year. Bookmakers were initially cautious regarding San Antonio, with DraftKings assigning them 65-1 championship odds at the start of the season.
Bettors recognized the potential and placed bets early and frequently: The Spurs have become the leading attractor of NBA Finals winner handle, as well as Western Conference winner tickets, at both BetMGM and DraftKings. Even as many bookmakers attempted to adjust to the trend, the public continued to support Wembanyama and his team.
“I can’t imagine what some other books’ liability sheets look like on them because they were 50-to-1-plus for most of the year,” remarked Caesars Sportsbook lead NBA trader David Lieberman to ESPN. “We were very proactive in reducing their odds because Wembanyama was performing exceptionally well, and we still have a significant amount of money on them. So I’m uncertain what else we could have done, but it’s one of those situations where people are going to bet on the Spurs based on their performance regardless.”
Meanwhile, the Celtics were expected to undergo a mild rebuild with superstar Jayson Tatum sidelined for most of the season due to an Achilles injury, along with considerable roster changes from the previous two seasons when they were consistent title contenders. This led DraftKings to assign them 60-1 odds at the season’s outset, but Boston managed to remain competitive throughout the year and is now favored to win the East (+155) with Tatum back in action.
“The Celtics were a team that didn’t have a complete roster, didn’t appear to have a complete roster, and here they are at full strength heading into the playoffs,” commented DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello. “They were bet at some really high numbers. We had them at maybe 75, 80-1 at one point.”
“Those two teams are not favorable outcomes for us,” Lieberman added.
There are additional intriguing betting narratives and liabilities to explore further down the odds board. The Minnesota Timberwolves, for instance, were as low as 12-1 for the title and were 50-1 at the beginning of April, but they extended all the way to 100-1 after securing a first-round matchup with Denver.
The Los Angeles Lakers also experienced a significant drop in the odds from a short price of 12-1 to 150-1 following key injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Both before and after those injuries, however, the Lakers remained popular among bettors, with Avello and Lieberman both noting strong support for them, and BetMGM identifying them as its largest remaining future liability.
Lieberman also points out that many bettors are placing wagers on longer shots from Eastern Conference teams further down the board in the conference and championship markets, hoping they can yield similar value to the upstart Indiana Pacers last year. He specifically highlights the Atlanta Hawks (130-1 at DraftKings) and Philadelphia 76ers (150-1) as teams drawing interest.
