The most favorable and unfavorable trade possibilities for Giannis Antetokounmpo’s fantasy worth

Giannis Antetokounmpo is closely associated with the Milwaukee Bucks. However, indications suggest that his tenure with the team may be nearing its conclusion. Additionally, Giannis is currently managing a calf injury that has him out “indefinitely,” which likely means he could be unavailable for four to six weeks, potentially extending into March.

If Giannis were to be traded before the NBA trade deadline on February 5, what implications would this have for fantasy teams? Furthermore, what are the most favorable and unfavorable trade scenarios from a fantasy standpoint?

If Giannis is part of your roster, would a trade impact his fantasy value? Conversely, if Giannis is not on your fantasy team, should you consider acquiring him?

Let’s delve into this.

How fantasy managers should prepare for a Giannis trade

Over the past week, Giannis has emerged as the most frequently traded player in fantasy basketball, surpassing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Michael Porter Jr., Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Jalen Brunson, and Karl-Anthony Towns.

This trend is particularly noteworthy given Giannis’ injury status. With his uncertain recovery timeline, there is a possibility that he may not return before the fantasy playoffs in March.

In contrast, last season’s significant in-season trade involved Jimmy Butler III, who was also dealing with an injury prior to being traded to Golden State, yet Butler was able to return to play immediately after the trade. The high interest in Giannis for fantasy trades may suggest that there is some expectation he will be moved from Milwaukee and could return to the court sooner than anticipated.

Another reason for his popularity in trade discussions could be his currently diminished value. Giannis is typically a top-five performer in fantasy rankings, but due to his injury and trade rumors, his fantasy value has dropped significantly.

Thus, teams willing to take a chance on Giannis, despite the uncertainty, might negotiate a compromise between his usual top-five ranking and his current position around the top-40 in trades. Additionally, fantasy managers who currently have Giannis may be anxious enough about his situation to facilitate trades.

If Giannis is traded, what are the most probable destinations? Bobby Marks provided a comprehensive analysis of the potential trade market for him, outlining what all 29 teams could offer and identifying the 11 teams that might present the best proposals.

Best-case scenario

From a fantasy basketball perspective, the most favorable of the 11 trade destinations for Giannis would likely be the Warriors. This is an ironic development, as last season the Warriors were also considered the prime landing spot for Butler. Following Butler’s trade there, he became an ideal fit both in the NBA and fantasy contexts.

However, Butler has recently suffered an ACL tear and is out for the remainder of the season. The Warriors still possess veteran players Stephen Curry and Draymond Green as their core, which means they are in a win-now mode.

The article did not specify a proposed trade package but indicated that any deal would need to include Butler and his $54 million salary. It also suggested that the Warriors would likely trade Jonathan Kuminga and possibly Brandin Podziemski, both promising young talents who could serve as foundational pieces for a rebuilding Bucks team, along with up to four first-round picks. To balance the salaries, the Bucks would need to include either Bobby Portis or Kyle Kuzma.

This scenario would be an ideal fantasy situation for Giannis, as he would play alongside the greatest shooter in NBA history. No player in the league disrupts defenses like Giannis, and no one creates and capitalizes on space quite like Curry. Moreover, Curry excels at moving without the ball and shooting off the pass.

Part of the reason Giannis and Damian Lillard never fully optimized their synergy is that Lillard preferred to create his own shot off the dribble and never seemed to find his rhythm with Giannis creating opportunities for him. The entire Warriors offense, including much of Curry’s chemistry with Green, has been built around Green facilitating for Curry’s spot-up jumpers. This dynamic would become even more potent with Giannis collapsing the defense and generating even better scoring chances.

With Giannis and Curry on the same roster, opponents would struggle to devise a defensive strategy to counter that combination. Aside from Curry and previously Butler, the Warriors lack other high-usage shot creators. On the Warriors, Giannis would be able to maintain his high usage while facing much less stringent defensive coverage. This could lead to increases in both volume and efficiency for Giannis, as well as enhanced 3-point production from Curry and the other Warriors.

Worst-case scenario

From a fantasy basketball perspective, the worst-case scenario would involve Giannis being traded to a contending team with multiple high-usage shot creators who would limit his opportunities or to an equal-opportunity offense where Giannis cannot be showcased to the same degree.

Among the teams considered best positioned to pursue Giannis, the Houston Rockets (assuming they retain Durant and Alperen Sengun), the New York Knicks (if, as mentioned in the article, they swap Giannis for Towns straight up), the Oklahoma City Thunder (alongside Gilgeous-Alexander and potentially Jalen Williams and/or Chet Holmgren), and the San Antonio Spurs (with Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox) are all teams that would become championship contenders with Giannis but would negatively impact his fantasy value.

Furthermore, adding Giannis to any of those teams could similarly diminish the fantasy values of the other star players on those rosters.

What to do

If Giannis is on your fantasy team

• Assess his trade value in your leagues. If you can secure a top 10 to 15 player in return, you should seriously consider trading him to mitigate the uncertainty surrounding his injury and potential trade destination.

• Even if you can only obtain a player valued in the top 20 to 25 range, it may still be worthwhile, especially since the injury could keep him out for a significant portion of the remaining fantasy season.

If Giannis isn’t on your fantasy team

• Investigate how much the manager with Giannis is seeking in return. The ideal candidate for trading for him is a team already positioned near the top of the league that is likely to make the playoffs, even if Giannis remains sidelined until the fantasy playoffs.

• For a team in this situation, acquiring Giannis now at approximately top-25 player value could enable them to add a top-five caliber player just in time for their playoff push. If you pursue a trade for Giannis, be aware that you are taking a risk, so negotiate to secure the best deal possible.