NBA trade deadline: Strategies of 8 Eastern Conference contenders as they enter final week

The NBA season has surpassed its midpoint, with the trade deadline and All-Star Weekend on the horizon, yet the Eastern Conference remains open and filled with uncertainties.

However, the circumstances in the East have not permitted the Milwaukee Bucks to stay competitive with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Consequently, as reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania on Wednesday, the two parties may be heading towards a separation after over 12 seasons together. Above the 12th-place Bucks, several teams in the East will enter April with genuine aspirations for the Finals.

After engaging with league insiders this week, our latest analysis of the NBA presents a reset for the East. What does the future hold for the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, and other contenders? What arguments exist for and against each as the leading conference favorite? Additionally, how might these franchises — along with Milwaukee — approach the trade deadline on February 5?

“Numerous teams can justify to themselves that they have a chance to win,” stated a veteran advance scout focused on the East. “However, none of these justifications are foolproof.”

First, what lies ahead for Giannis and the Bucks?

While the competition for the top contender in the East remains debatable, the most significant narrative in the conference — and the NBA — is clear.

In discussions with sources around the league over the last 48 hours, there is a prevailing expectation that the Giannis situation will extend at least until Thursday. Following that, Bucks general manager Jon Horst and his team will need to determine whether to act now or defer until the offseason.

Three sources indicated they anticipate the trade situation in Milwaukee to continue into the summer.

“I’m uncertain why it wouldn’t be sensible to wait,” remarked an East scout. “They can assess the draft [lottery] and evaluate their options then.”

Nonetheless, Milwaukee is fielding calls, evaluating the trade value of its star forward in a manner that the franchise, as one source noted, has never done before.

Antetokounmpo’s calf injury may compel Milwaukee to postpone any decisions until the offseason. He is sidelined for at least a month due to a calf strain, eliminating one rationale for a deadline trade: the risk of Antetokounmpo potentially playing the Bucks out of a favorable lottery position for their 2026 first-round pick. (This is the same reason, sources mentioned, that trade discussions for the Mavericks’ Anthony Davis have cooled in recent weeks.)

Consequently, the league — from teams already interested, such as the Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Miami Heat, and New York Knicks, to others that might enter the competition for a top-five player — will continue to monitor developments leading up to the deadline.

Regarding the state of the East beyond Milwaukee, here is an overview of the arguments for and against each contender aiming for the Finals, starting with the team that has dominated the conference for several months.

Detroit Pistons

The case for: Detroit ranks second in the league for defensive rating (No. 1 since December 1) and net rating, trailing only the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. With a 15-2 start, Detroit has been the clear leader in the conference and currently holds a six-game lead over the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. Cade Cunningham has emerged as a legitimate star and MVP candidate, leading a resilient, physical team with a distinct identity.

The case against: Championship-caliber teams typically possess two dependable perimeter playmakers. Recent title-winning teams, for instance, included Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams; Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown; Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic; Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Detroit has Cunningham but lacks another reliable scoring option. Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff must also demonstrate that he can guide his team past the second round of the playoffs. The Pistons feature a young roster that has yet to secure a playoff series victory. Can they transition from that to winning three consecutive series? History suggests otherwise. “It’s challenging to assert that Detroit [will reach the Finals] until they prove it,” a Western Conference executive commented.

Trade deadline synopsis: The Pistons have consistently expressed patience, sources have reiterated, believing that Detroit is more likely to act as a facilitator at the deadline rather than pursue a significant move to accelerate the team’s timeline. This perspective is reasonable, given that Detroit’s core has not yet reached its peak, and substantial contract decisions loom for Jalen Duren (restricted free agency) and Ausar Thompson (extension discussions) this summer. However, there remains time to alter that approach and transform the young Pistons into genuine conference title contenders for the first time in a generation.

Boston Celtics

The case for: Brown is performing at an All-NBA level, Tatum has not ruled out a return this season from his Achilles injury, and coach Joe Mazzulla has fostered development among Boston’s young or unproven players (forwards Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez and centers Neemias Queta and Luka Garza). Consequently, the Celtics possess the league’s No. 2 offense, the No. 12 defense, and the No. 3 net rating, trailing only Oklahoma City and Detroit. “I don’t believe they’re a title threat because the East isn’t strong,” a West scout remarked. “But I think they can win the East, for sure.”

The case against: Despite exceeding many expectations, the Celtics still lack depth. This is a consequence of losing Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kornet, and Al Horford in one offseason with minimal returns. Relying on Tatum is not guaranteed, and those impactful young players have yet to demonstrate their capabilities in the playoffs.

Trade deadline synopsis: Throughout his time as president of basketball operations, Brad Stevens has consistently found ways to enhance the team at the trade deadline — even if only marginally. Sources anticipate that this trend will continue. Guard Anfernee Simons, who has had notable moments for the Celtics but is on a $27 million expiring contract, would be the most likely candidate to be traded if Stevens pursues a move that necessitates matching a larger salary. Although sources believe Boston would seek frontcourt size, significant trades for stars like Antetokounmpo or Memphis Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. appear improbable.

New York Knicks

The case for: Raw talent. The Knicks began the 2025-26 season as conference co-favorites, and they have spent portions of the season demonstrating that potential, including a run to the NBA Cup title in December. Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, and OG Anunoby provide New York with the versatile and defensive wing core that every Finals contender desires, while Jalen Brunson excels in clutch situations. New York boasts the No. 2 offense, driven by outstanding 3-point shooting statistics (fourth in makes, third in percentage).

The case against: The primary issue is defense, which ranks 14th in the league but has struggled significantly in recent weeks, placing 28th during the team’s 2-9 slump earlier this month. The Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns pick-and-roll combination raises defensive concerns. The Knicks’ 116.9 defensive rating when those two are on the court is equivalent to the 24th-ranked Chicago Bulls this season. Additionally, this team faces considerable pressure to succeed this season, especially after firing coach Tom Thibodeau following last season’s conference finals appearance and owner James Dolan recently stating that New York “must” reach the Finals and “should” win them.

Trade deadline synopsis: The Knicks, as Charania has reported, have shown interest in acquiring Antetokounmpo since the summer. The question remains whether they possess sufficient assets to secure him. The most viable route for such a trade would involve draft capital, which New York has limited availability of. The Knicks could offer several rotation players instead, but that does not align with the premium value Milwaukee seeks in a potential Antetokounmpo trade.

Another option would necessitate a third team to facilitate the deal. Trading Anunoby could yield the young players and/or draft picks that Milwaukee desires. Although Anunoby has never been an All-Star, his acquisition could mirror the impact that Derrick White — another exceptional two-way player — had for Boston after arriving from San Antonio. Like White, Anunoby could serve as a key player for a title contender and would attract significant interest if made available.

“Dolan believes this is a championship-caliber team,” stated one West GM. “The front office must determine whether they still hold that belief.”

Cleveland Cavaliers

The case for: Donovan Mitchell is experiencing a career year, and while it is understandable that he was not named an All-Star starter due to Cleveland’s underwhelming performance in the first half, it is unjust. Mitchell has filled various roles, including recently taking over as the starting point guard due to Darius Garland’s absence. The Cavaliers can also exhibit strong defensive capabilities at times, and their potential, which they have reached on occasion this season, ranks among the league’s elite.

The case against: They may never achieve full health. Garland has faced issues with both big toes, Evan Mobley has injured his left calf twice, Sam Merrill has sprained his right shooting hand twice, and Max Strus recently had his injury timeline extended while recovering from a Jones fracture. Even when healthy, the Cavaliers are undersized at the guard positions, and their interior defense has faltered in the playoffs over the past three years against the Knicks, Celtics, and Indiana Pacers. This has contributed to their postseason disappointments, and there is little evidence to suggest they have altered that pattern.

Trade deadline synopsis: With only one guaranteed year remaining on Mitchell’s contract, the franchise is approaching a critical moment. Mitchell has not indicated any dissatisfaction with his situation in Cleveland, and he has already signed one extension. Would that change following another early playoff exit? Mitchell has yet to reach a conference finals in his eight-plus seasons. This is why sources around the league are closely observing Cleveland in the upcoming week and into the offseason.

“Cleveland is active [in trade discussions],” one East executive noted. “We’re uncertain about their objectives — and they may not be either — but they’re engaged.”

Philadelphia 76ers

The case for: When Joel Embiid is at his best, few players can match his offensive dominance. The former MVP is beginning to regain that form, fostering a belief within the franchise that the 76ers could pose a threat in the playoffs. Tyrese Maxey, who was named an All-Star starter, continues to evolve into a superstar. Paul George has settled into a role as a third or fourth option, and rookie guard VJ Edgecombe is meeting expectations as the No. 3 pick.

The case against: The injury risk is substantial in Philadelphia, and predicting the health of Embiid and George, who is 35, as spring approaches is precarious. The 76ers are also undersized throughout the rotation despite the 7-foot Embiid anchoring the middle. George or Kelly Oubre Jr. often assume a small-ball 4 role, while the talented guard quartet of Maxey, Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes, and Jared McCain is average height or shorter for their respective positions.

Trade deadline synopsis: Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey is known for the “5% rule,” which suggests that if a team has at least that much of a chance at a title, they should pursue it. Although Morey has a history of making significant trades — including acquiring James Harden with two franchises — the prevailing sentiment from Philadelphia and around the league is that another blockbuster deal is unlikely. The 76ers are $7 million into the luxury tax and have avenues to reduce their expenditure. Achieving this would likely require parting with a player such as Oubre or Grimes, a move sources indicate the team is not pursuing. Creating roster space to convert two-way players Dominick Barlow and Jabari Walker to standard contracts may be the extent of Philadelphia’s activity leading up to Thursday’s deadline.

More East teams with a chance

With numerous uncertainties surrounding the top few teams in the East, several other franchises would contend they also have a shot at making a run. This is particularly true if any of the next three teams execute a significant move before the deadline.

Toronto Raptors

Raptors supporters may disagree with their inclusion in this category after a strong start to the season. Despite a lopsided home defeat to the Knicks on Wednesday, Toronto ranks fourth in the East standings, bolstered by the league’s No. 6 defense and an impressive all-around performance from Scottie Barnes, along with notable contributions from rookie Collin Murray-Boyles.

However, the loss to the Knicks underscored why this team does not rank higher. Toronto, which is 21st in offense, is among the bottom 10 in the league for 3-point makes, attempts, and percentage. Competing in the modern NBA is challenging with such low output from beyond the arc.

Sources predict that Toronto will be proactive, with significant long-term financial commitments and all future draft picks available for trade, allowing them to offload burdensome contracts while also acquiring talent to enhance their playoff chances. Although Toronto was previously viewed as a strong candidate for Anthony Davis, the star forward’s injury has likely eliminated that option. It seems certain that Toronto will aim to clear the approximately $1 million needed to exit the luxury tax, but the opportunity for a major acquisition may not arise.

“Only a few teams possess full control of their drafts,” remarked one seasoned East executive. “That positions [the Raptors] as potential buyers if they choose to be. However, considering their contracts [$165 million for their top five players next year], they will require those picks.”

Miami Heat

Miami finds itself in a transitional phase following the conclusion of the Jimmy Butler III era and the next chapter for the franchise. The Heat rank 18th in offense despite implementing a new free-flowing system in the offseason, although injuries have limited former All-Star Tyler Herro to just 11 games. While coach Erik Spoelstra is arguably the best tactician in the game, maximizing player potential, it is difficult to envision another Finals run until a true star is acquired to complement big man Bam Adebayo.

This is where Antetokounmpo’s future becomes relevant. As Charania has reported, Miami is a strong contender for the two-time MVP forward. Adebayo and Antetokounmpo share an agent in Octagon’s Alex Saratsis, and the Heat’s front office, led by Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg, has executed more star-level trades than any team over the past three decades. The primary challenge this time is Miami’s limitations regarding draft assets and available young players.

The Heat possess only two tradeable first-round picks, along with Herro (a Milwaukee native), Kel’el Ware, and Jaime Jaquez Jr., but lack the premium trade package that may be necessary to acquire Antetokounmpo. It is unlikely that the front office will take significant action before the deadline. They may either shift their focus to the offseason if Antetokounmpo remains with the Bucks or prepare for summer 2027, when Miami could have considerable cap space.

Orlando Magic

Orlando was anticipated to be an under-the-radar Finals contender after signing Paolo Banchero to a max extension and acquiring scoring guard Desmond Bane from Memphis for four first-round picks. However, Orlando’s offense currently ranks 19th in the league — if this persists, the Magic would be in the top 20 for the first time in 15 years — with a defense that is 15th after finishing in the top three in the previous two seasons.

Sources across the league strongly believe that Orlando, which is approximately $5 million into the luxury tax, will make a move to reduce that figure. Parting ways with guard Tyus Jones’ expiring $7