Weekend forecasts: Arsenal expected to recover, Barcelona favored in derby match

Every Friday, I highlight the most thrilling or significant matches in the world of football that you should catch over the weekend. From local derbies to crucial top-of-the-table encounters, relegation battles to elite players clashing, and other intriguing tactical showdowns, there will be something for every fan to appreciate.

This week, we focus on England, Spain, Italy, and Germany as the Premier League returns, featuring two major derbies, Championship contests, top-tier clashes, and intense battles for European qualification.

The Gunners aim to regain momentum
Arsenal vs. Bournemouth

Premier League, Matchday 32
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. BST

Following defeats surrounding the international break—against Manchester City in the Carabao Cup final and at Southampton in the FA Cup—Arsenal rebounded with a victory away at Sporting CP in the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals. It was not a dominant performance, with Kai Havertz netting a goal deep into second-half stoppage time, but it was crucial.

The Gunners and Mikel Arteta were not in a state of panic after consecutive cup losses, but they utilized the midweek match in Lisbon to reaffirm their dominance. It was a composed and controlling win, which was the primary objective. Now, they return to Premier League action at home against Bournemouth, sitting atop the table with a nine-point advantage over City (though Pep Guardiola’s team has a game in hand). A victory over Bournemouth would extend their lead to 12 points before City faces a challenging match against Chelsea on Sunday, and Arteta will be hopeful that some of his injured players (Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Jurriën Timber, Piero Hincapié) might return.

Bournemouth currently occupies 13th place in the standings, yet remarkably, they are just four points shy of seventh place and a potential European spot for next season. However, they have many teams to surpass, and numerous results must favor them as the season concludes. Expect them to maintain their typical attacking style, even at the Emirates, where they have historically posed challenges for Arsenal since Andoni Iraola’s arrival.

MY PREDICTION: Arsenal 2-1 Bournemouth. This match presents a solid opportunity for Arsenal to inch closer to the Premier League title. They are expected to secure a win on Saturday, applying additional pressure on City ahead of their encounter at the Etihad next weekend.

A significant derby in LaLiga for the league leaders
Barcelona vs. Espanyol

LaLiga, Matchday 31
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. BST

On the surface, a local derby occurring between two legs of the Champions League quarterfinal against Atlético Madrid (where they lost the first leg 2-0) does not bode well for Barcelona. However, they hold a seven-point lead over Real Madrid at the top of LaLiga and, even with a Clasico still on the horizon in May, they can afford to drop some points along the way. Nonetheless, this is a significant local derby, and Hansi Flick and his squad must approach it with seriousness.

Despite Raphinha’s injury, Barcelona’s offense appears to remain effective, as demonstrated against Atlético in the league last weekend when Marcus Rashford (who took over for the Brazilian on the left wing) scored, and the team generated numerous opportunities. Lamine Yamal is also in exceptional form, making it difficult to envision how Espanyol could contain them. Midfielder Frenkie de Jong is still sidelined, but Jules Koundé has returned to bolster the defense after coming on for the final half hour last weekend. Barcelona has lost Marc Bernal to another injury, but they have sufficient depth in midfield (Marc Casadó, Eric García, Gavi).

Barça has not suffered defeat in this fixture since 2018, while Espanyol has been struggling since Flick & Co. secured a 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture at the beginning of January, going an astonishing 13 league matches without a win.

MY PREDICTION: Barcelona 3-1 Espanyol. There is unlikely to be much competition on Saturday at Camp Nou. Even with two significant Champions League matches surrounding it, Barcelona is expected to overpower their neighbors and extend their impressive run with a seventh consecutive LaLiga victory.

play2:54Marcotti gives Barcelona a 40% chance of overturning deficit vs. Atletico

Gab and Juls make their second leg predictions for Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona and Liverpool vs. PSG in the Champions League.

Can Pep Guardiola & Co. sustain the title challenge?
Chelsea vs. Manchester City

Premier League, Matchday 32
Kickoff: Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. BST

After suffering four consecutive defeats prior to the international break (twice to PSG in the Champions League, along with losses to Newcastle and Everton in the league) and conceding 12 goals in that span, Chelsea triumphed over League One side Port Vale 7-0 in the FA Cup on Saturday. However, that match does not mask their ongoing struggles and lack of momentum. Manager Liam Rosenior is under pressure as the Blues, currently sixth in the standings, cannot afford to miss out on Champions League qualification for next season. They urgently need points to catch Liverpool (one point ahead), while Aston Villa and Manchester United are six and seven points clear in fourth and third, respectively.

This match at Stamford Bridge is crucial for Rosenior and his squad, although midfield key player Enzo Fernández will again be absent after receiving a two-match suspension from the club for comments made about his future and expressing a desire to live in Madrid during an interview.

Conversely, City has regained their form, winning the Carabao Cup against Arsenal and thrashing Liverpool 4-0 last weekend in the FA Cup. However, before facing Arsenal next week, they require a strong performance and result on Sunday to build even more confidence. Erling Haaland netted a hat trick against Liverpool, with Antoine Semenyo providing his first assist since joining the club in January; Rayan Cherki also seems to have added an extra dimension since his return. Yet, even against a struggling Chelsea side, this presents a challenging away fixture for City.

MY PREDICTION: Chelsea 1-2 Manchester City. City must respond to whatever Arsenal achieves on Saturday, as it could result in a nine, ten, or even twelve-point gap by the time they kick off against Chelsea. However, they are expected to demonstrate resilience and character to secure a vital victory.

Can Wrexham maintain their promotion aspirations?
Birmingham City vs. Wrexham

English Championship, Matchday 42
Kickoff: Sunday, 8 a.m. ET / 1 p.m. BST

This match is significant in the Championship, although it is not a derby, and Birmingham has nothing at stake as they are already assured of their survival. This encounter is notable due to the American ownership, with Tom Brady facing off against Ryan Reynolds/Rob McElhenney. It represents a clash of NFL and Hollywood royalty, along with ambitious projects.

Birmingham is currently 16th in the standings; they cannot be promoted or relegated and have encountered a rough patch recently, suffering three consecutive losses and securing only one win in their last eight matches (one draw and six defeats). Overall, it has been a satisfactory season following their promotion back to the Championship, and it has provided valuable experience for manager Chris Davies, 41, and a youthful squad (August Priske, Jay Stansfield, Jhon Solis, and James Beadle are all under 24).

The challenge for the Blues is that Wrexham, also newly promoted, have fared significantly better with their project. Wrexham sits seventh, just two points behind Southampton (having played one game more) for the final playoff position, despite being winless in their last two league outings (a draw at West Brom and a heavy 5-1 defeat at home against Southampton on Tuesday).

Even though their recent form has been inconsistent, and their final two league matches of the season are against league leaders Coventry and third-placed Middlesbrough, they have several winnable games leading up to that point. However, they must capitalize on Sunday. Josh Windass, with 12 league goals and five assists thus far, will be a crucial player, alongside Kiefer Moore in attack.

MY PREDICTION: Birmingham 1-1 Wrexham. Birmingham would relish the opportunity to disrupt Wrexham’s promotion ambitions. They are expected to be aggressive, and the crowd will be highly motivated.

play1:30Moreno: Bayern Munich can raise level against Real Madrid

Alejandro Moreno anticipates Bayern Munich to enhance their performance in the second leg, cautioning Real Madrid despite their 2-1 victory at the Santiago Bernabéu.

A high-stakes encounter in Germany
Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayer Leverkusen

German Bundesliga, Matchday 29
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. BST

This weekend features a clash between second and sixth place in the Bundesliga, as Borussia Dortmund welcomes Bayer Leverkusen—two teams vying for Champions League qualification for the next season. Dortmund is nearly secure in their position, following a comeback victory at Stuttgart last weekend, scoring two late goals in stoppage time. They are 11 points ahead of third place; meanwhile, Leverkusen, in sixth with 49 points, is striving to catch Hoffenheim (50) ahead of them, as well as Stuttgart and Leipzig (53). However, it is not an impossible task. They simply need to string together a series of victories, having not won consecutive matches since February.

Before Leverkusen’s comeback against Wolfsburg last weekend—overcoming a 3-1 deficit to win 6-3—they had managed only one victory in their previous nine matches across all competitions, with two losses and six draws. They have the capability to perform well and challenge top teams, as evidenced by their draw against Arsenal (1-1) in the Champions League round of 16 first leg or their match against Bayern Munich in March (1-1). However, their inconsistency is a concern, especially if they wish to challenge a Dortmund side that has been impressive this season, trailing only Bayern.

Dortmund will be cautious of the attacking talent Leverkusen possesses, although they have the second-best defense in the league, having conceded 28 goals, just one more than Bayern.

MY PREDICTION: Dortmund 2-2 Leverkusen. I anticipate a high-scoring encounter between two offensively-minded teams. Leverkusen must be aggressive if they wish to keep their Champions League hopes alive, while Dortmund demonstrated their attacking prowess in transition against Stuttgart last weekend.

Atalanta to ignite the race for Europe?
Atalanta vs. Juventus

Italian Serie A, Matchday 32
Kickoff: Saturday, 2:45 p.m ET / 7:45 p.m. BST

Serie A is currently filled with significant matches as the top seven teams continue to face each other in an exhilarating race for Champions League and European positions—this is certainly more thrilling than the title race, which appears to be firmly in Inter’s grasp. In Bergamo on Saturday, a crucial match awaits between the hosts (seventh place), who trail Roma in sixth by a point and Juventus in fifth by four points, whom they will face this weekend.

After a commendable draw against Inter amid heavy defeats to Bayern Munich in the Champions League (10-2 on aggregate), Atalanta has secured victories in their last two league matches and must maintain this momentum on Saturday. In the absence of Gianluca Scamacca, forwards Nikola Krstovic and Giacomo Raspadori stepped up to score against Lecce on Monday, while playmaker Charles De Ketelaere provided two assists. Atalanta has lost only two home matches in the league all season. This match will also feature an intriguing tactical battle between Raffaele Palladino and Luciano Spalletti, representing the new and old guard of Italian coaching.

Spalletti and Juventus are currently on a six-match unbeaten streak, five of which are in Serie A, although they have not faced any significant opponents during this stretch apart from Roma, where they drew 3-3. The front three of Francisco Conceição, Jonathan David, and Kenan Yildiz, who started against Genoa last weekend, can be inconsistent—especially David, who has not found the net since February 1. Loïs Openda and Dusan Vlahovic were benched in that match as Juve led 2-0 early and created ample chances to score more, but the team requires more from their forwards, even though midfielders Weston McKennie, Manuel Locatelli, and Khéphren Thuram are in excellent form.

MY PREDICTION: Atalanta 2-1 Juventus. I believe Atalanta will prove too strong at home for a Juventus side that is in decent form. I expect Juve to adopt a defensive approach on Saturday, which may invite pressure from Atalanta’s diverse attacking options.

And finally, the East Anglia Derby
Norwich City vs. Ipswich Town

English Championship, Matchday 42
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. BST

One of the most significant rivalries in English football, Saturday’s East Anglian derby is set to be intense between Norwich and Ipswich at Carrow Road. Both teams have much at stake, in addition to the rivalry and the pride that comes with defeating their arch-rivals.

The hosts are currently ninth in the standings and have a chance (albeit slim) to still reach the playoffs. However, for them, it is more about continuing their strong performance in this fixture, as they have lost only one of the last 15 derbies, with eight wins and six draws—their only defeat in that span was in October’s meeting at Portman Road, which ended 3-1 in favor of Ipswich. Therefore, Norwich will seek revenge at home and aim to disrupt their rivals’ promotion hopes.

Since Philippe Clement took over as manager, Norwich has shown significant improvement: they have lost only once in the league since February, and that defeat came against an in-form Southampton. They have also been defensively solid, conceding only three goals in their last seven league matches.

For Ipswich, there is even more at stake. Kieran McKenna and his squad are second in the table, tied on points with Middlesbrough and Millwall for the