UWCL discussion points: Do Arsenal hold the edge over Chelsea? Is there potential for Madrid to challenge Barça?

The Women’s Champions League is advancing to the quarterfinals!

This week’s second legs of the play-off round saw Arsenal, Manchester United, Real Madrid, and Wolfsburg secure their spots in the final eight, joining Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, and OL Lyonnes.

Continue reading as ESPN analysts Emily Keogh, Alex Kirkland, and Yash Thakur share their insights on some pressing questions.

Q1: Arsenal faces Chelsea in the quarterfinals. Who do you consider the favorites?

Keogh: With the Women’s Super League title at stake and the possibility of finishing the season without the two major trophies, I wouldn’t count Chelsea out.

There is a significant chance that finishing third is the best they can achieve in the WSL this season, which would barely qualify them for next year’s Champions League. If they fall lower than that, their only route back next year would be to win this season’s tournament. Chelsea might be focusing all their efforts on the continental competition.

There is a precedent for this: Last year, Arsenal experienced a similar situation, suffering two heavy league losses leading up to the final in Lisbon. I can definitely see Chelsea putting everything into these quarterfinals to ensure this season is a success.

However, form could be a concern for Sonia Bompastor. Chelsea has faced difficulties in recent matches, and their performance has not been cohesive. Nevertheless, anything can happen over two legs, and Chelsea’s experience as a team could help them navigate through to victory.

play2:03Russo double books Arsenal’s quarterfinal spot vs. Chelsea

Arsenal defeats OH Leuven 7-1 on aggregate to set up a Women’s Champions League quarterfinal match against Chelsea.

Kirkland: Arsenal — but it’s very close! This is a challenging match to predict: the teams drew 1-1 in November, and then Arsenal won 2-0 last month. Chelsea is currently four points ahead in the WSL standings, but Arsenal has two games in hand. In the Women’s Champions League, Chelsea finished the league phase with two more points, while last season, the draw kept them apart in different brackets. The most relevant indicator we have is their meeting at Stamford Bridge on January 24, where Arsenal was dominant, suggesting they might be the favorites at this moment.

Thakur: Chelsea’s inconsistent season makes Arsenal the favorites in my view. Bompastor’s team has struggled with decisiveness in the final third and defensive actions. Their consecutive losses to Arsenal and City exposed weaknesses in their playing style and Bompastor’s unclear squad identity. I concur with Emily that they may go all out for the Champions League title.

Q2: What did Real Madrid demonstrate this week that could concern Barcelona?

Kirkland: Honestly, I don’t think there’s anything about this Real Madrid team, or Wednesday’s match, that would genuinely concern Barcelona. “Concern” is a strong term. This Barça squad has consistently triumphed and has repeatedly defeated Madrid, with only one notable exception in March 2025.

Does this Madrid team appear better prepared at this level this season? Absolutely. They have reached the Champions League quarterfinals for the second consecutive year, which is evident. Recent Clásico encounters, such as the Spanish Supercopa final last month, have been more competitive. Players like Caroline Weir and Caicedo can certainly pose a threat to Barça. However, there will be no intimidation, especially with the second leg of this quarterfinal set to take place at Camp Nou.

play2:01Real Madrid set up women’s Clásico quarterfinal clash with Paris FC win

Real Madrid secures their Women’s Champions League quarterfinal spot against Barcelona after defeating Paris FC 5-2 on aggregate.

Keogh: The only way I believe Real Madrid can genuinely challenge Barcelona is by getting Linda Caicedo involved in critical areas. She is a world-class talent — her combination of speed, creativity, and technique is exceptional — and she can force mistakes from Barcelona’s defenders. However, she may be the only factor that can significantly impact the match for Madrid.

There have already been two Clásicos this year — Barcelona won both, scoring six goals and conceding none. History, in various aspects, favors Barça. Madrid’s best chance is to frustrate their opponents and capitalize on counterattacks.

Thakur: I agree that instilling fear in Barcelona is challenging, but Real Madrid has posed challenges to Barça in their encounters over the past year. Their pressing in this season’s Clásicos has been impressive, pushing Barça back into their own half and creating issues. This tactical adjustment could be crucial for them in this quarterfinal matchup. Additionally, the performances of Madrid goalkeeper Misa Rodríguez have been outstanding. Madrid must contain Barcelona’s potent offense, and Misa is essential to achieving that.

Q3: How has Manchester United reached the quarterfinals in their debut season, and can they go all the way?

Thakur: The short answer is no. United’s inaugural campaign has been commendable. Their defensive strength has propelled them into the last eight, with Marc Skinner’s side achieving five clean sheets in their eight UWCL matches. However, against the top clubs, that defensive solidity has faced scrutiny. Wolfsburg and OL Lyonnes each scored three or more goals against them during the league phase.

I anticipate United’s defense will encounter similar challenges against Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals and beyond. The newcomers may lack the necessary tools to consistently execute their solid defensive strategy against tougher opponents. I do not expect them to progress further.

play2:05Jess Park’s stunner helps Man United cruise into quarterfinals

Manchester United defeats Atletico Madrid 2-0 in the knockout phase playoff second leg of the UEFA Women’s Champions League.

Keogh: United has been impressive, without a doubt. However, they have benefited from a favorable draw thus far.

Indeed, they faced both less challenging and more experienced opponents in the league phase — they were punished by the latter — but their playoff tie was evenly matched against a familiar opponent. This does not diminish their impressive performance, but it is likely to be a different scenario against Bayern Munich.

It is not guaranteed that the German giants will easily defeat United, but this is where the true test lies for the newcomers. Bayern has already triumphed over Arsenal, Juventus, and PSG this season. They are leading the Frauen Bundesliga and have proven to be significantly more competitive this season compared to previous years. United has the capability to pressure any team and is in good form, but I believe this quarterfinal matchup will mark the end of the fairytale for the debutants.

Kirkland: Can they go all the way? Almost certainly not. I cannot envision them overcoming Bayern, or, if it comes to that, Barcelona in the semifinals. However, they have performed well. I had the opportunity to watch them live here in Madrid back in October when they defeated Atleti, and I was impressed by their performance in a challenging match where they were down to 10 players but still emerged victorious. Atleti must be extremely frustrated with their repeated encounters!

It has been a solid campaign for United, and if it concludes in the quarterfinals, I believe it will provide valuable experience for future endeavors.

Q4: Which quarterfinal matchup are you most eager to see?

Keogh: These quarterfinals feature some of the most exciting matchups we’ve ever seen in this competition. While a Clásico clash is hard to surpass, the inaugural London derby between the two most competitive English teams must take the top spot.

Chelsea and Arsenal have never faced each other over two legs before, especially not in the knockout stages of the Champions League. It promises to be an exhilarating spectacle, and hopefully, both teams will showcase their best football. For neutral spectators, this will serve as an ideal promotion for the domestic women’s game and the broader competition.

Both teams have reached the semifinals recently — Chelsea has been eliminated in each of the past three years by Barcelona — and both are equally deserving of a spot there this season. The fact that local rivals will eliminate one another adds to the occasion, making it a perfect opportunity for fans to fully engage. Bragging rights are at stake.

play1:29Jess Park reveals the secret to her goalscoring form

Jess Park discusses how she has been consistently finding the back of the net this season, following a brilliant strike in Manchester United’s victory over Atletico Madrid.

Kirkland: Apologies for being predictable, but it’s Real Madrid vs. Barcelona, without a doubt. Yes, they frequently face each other, but this is the Champions League, a tournament Madrid is eager to establish their credentials in, making this encounter even more significant. I believe Madrid has demonstrated enough in recent meetings to indicate they can genuinely compete with Barça over two legs, even if Barça will still be the clear favorites to advance.

Thakur: I believe we have four very thrilling matchups set for the quarterfinals. The rivalries and shared histories among many teams enhance the “watchability” of every game. However, there are two matches that I am particularly looking forward to.

The London derby between Arsenal and Chelsea is an obvious choice. Additionally, Bayern Munich against Manchester United presents an intriguing narrative of a fairytale debutant facing a team with scars from previous defeats. What more could one want?

UWCL power rankings

1. Barcelona

Barcelona continues to be the strong favorites to claim the UWCL title once again — and they are seeking revenge after an unexpected 1-0 loss to Arsenal in last season’s final. They are significantly ahead in the Spanish league, allowing them to concentrate on reclaiming their European title. The rise of young talents such as Clara Serrajordi, Carla Martinez, and Aïcha Cámara has also been a significant storyline this season.

2. OL Lyonnes

OL Lyonnes aims to return to the finals of a competition they have dominated. They remained unbeaten in the group stages, achieving five victories in six matches. Jonathan Giraldez has shaped the team to his vision, and they possess talent throughout their squad. The addition of exciting young players in the summer and a new tactical approach has provided the team with a much-needed reset.

They have potent attacking options, solid midfield and defensive capabilities, and if needed, they can rely on Wendie Renard for set-piece situations. They feel well-equipped to reach the finals in Oslo this season.

3. Arsenal

The reigning champions have had a somewhat underwhelming season. Renee Slegers’ tricky reds have been relatively easy to read. Their struggles in front of goal have plagued them at times. With the WSL title appearing unlikely, they will be hoping to salvage their season with European success.

4. Chelsea

Chelsea boasts an undeniably talented roster. However, they have seldom managed to deliver performances that exceed the sum of their individual talents this season. Chelsea remains unbeaten in Europe with the joint-best goal difference, but it seems improbable that they can secure the title.

5. Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich was shocked by a 7-1 defeat to Barcelona in their opening UWCL match, but they have since recovered, winning four of their remaining five group stage matches. In fact, they are unbeaten in all competitions since that loss. Klara Buhl and Pernille Harder have been exceptional in attack this season, combining for some outstanding performances.

6. Manchester United

The newcomers have reached the last eight in the UWCL this season with some commendable performances. United has demonstrated defensive resilience this season and has maximized this approach with a fluid attack. However, United has already struggled against teams like OL Lyonnes and Wolfsburg. They may have the potential to challenge these clubs, but it might be premature to expect them to overcome them this season.

7. Real Madrid

Real Madrid has received the toughest draw in the competition. After failing to secure a top-four finish on the final matchday of the league phase, Pau Quesada’s team is now faced with a quarterfinal matchup against Barcelona.

The head-to-head record in all competitions between the two teams stands at 23-1 in favor of Barcelona, and Madrid has never advanced past the last eight in the UWCL. The historical record and the fact that the second leg will be played away make Real Madrid the team least likely to advance to the final four of the competition.

8. Wolfsburg

The original giants of the European competition are once again among the final eight, despite a mixed performance in the tournament. The German powerhouses concluded the group stages with three wins and three losses and fell short in nearly all their significant challenges, notably losing to a depleted Real Madrid side. If their group-stage performance is any indication, Wolfsburg may face elimination against OL Lyonnes in the quarterfinals.