2026 World Cup qualifying playoff analysis and forecasts: Which teams will progress?

The 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup is now less than 80 days away, and the final six qualification spots will be determined during the international break as the last four European teams and two intercontinental qualifiers emerge from the World Cup playoffs, scheduled for Thursday and Tuesday.

Can Italy, the four-time world champions, avoid missing their third consecutive World Cup? Which European nation will secure the last spot in the USA’s group at the finals? Is there a possibility that the small nation of New Caledonia could qualify for the World Cup through the intercontinental playoffs?

With so much on the line for the 22 nations striving to secure one of the remaining spots, the pressure will be high in this week’s semifinals. But who will prevail to earn a place in the playoff finals on Tuesday?

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EUROPEAN PLAYOFFS

PATH A
Winner enters World Cup Group B (Canada, Qatar, Switzerland)

Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina (Cardiff, Wales): Wales enters their semifinal against Bosnia and Herzegovina with Craig Bellamy’s squad ranked 35th in the FIFA men’s rankings, 36 spots ahead of their rivals. However, Bosnia has achieved two victories and two draws in their four prior encounters with Wales, losing only once in UEFA Group H, where they finished second behind Austria.

Wales enjoys home advantage in Cardiff, but the absence of injured Wrexham forward Kieffer Moore will be a setback for Bellamy’s team. Conversely, 40-year-old Edin Dzeko, who has netted six goals in eight matches for Schalke since joining the 2. Bundesliga club in January, remains a potent threat and could provide Bosnia with an advantage.

Winner: Bosnia and Herzegovina

Italy vs. Northern Ireland (Bergamo, Italy): Italy’s coach Gennaro Gattuso has addressed the “nervousness” within his squad ahead of their matchup with Northern Ireland in Bergamo, stemming from the Azzurri’s inability to advance through the playoffs for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. The memory of a home loss to North Macedonia in the 2022 playoff semifinal still lingers for Italy, but Gattuso’s team is expected to be too strong for a Northern Ireland side missing injured Premier League defenders Conor Bradley (Liverpool) and Dan Ballard (Sunderland).

Northern Ireland’s coach Michael O’Neill, who led the team to Euro 2016 qualification, is striving for World Cup qualification for the first time since 1986. However, O’Neill required a fully fit squad to have any chance of success in this semifinal, and the absence of Bradley and Ballard creates a significant gap in Northern Ireland’s defense.

Winner: Italy

Path A final: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy (Zenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina): Prediction to follow on Monday.

PATH B
Winner enters World Cup Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia)

Ukraine vs. Sweden (Valencia, Spain): Sweden did not secure a single victory during the qualifying campaign, finishing last in Group B with four losses and two draws, but they had already clinched a playoff spot due to their Nations League performance a year prior. Liverpool forward Alexander Isak’s ongoing absence due to a broken leg has left Sweden’s coach Graham Potter without his top striker, but Arsenal’s Viktor Gyökeres is fit and available, meaning the Swedes still pose a threat.

Ukraine has concerns regarding the fitness of Lyon forward Roman Yaremchuk, but despite playing on neutral ground in Spain at Levante’s Estadi Ciutat de Valencia, Serhiy Rebrov’s team is still anticipated to receive considerable support from a Ukrainian contingent that could help them succeed.

Winner: Ukraine

Poland vs. Albania (Warsaw, Poland): Both teams finished as runners-up in their qualification groups — Poland behind the Netherlands and Albania behind England — and this matchup has the potential to be the most closely contested of all the European playoffs.

Robert Lewandowski will lead Poland’s attack, with the 37-year-old Barcelona forward aware that this could be his final chance at a World Cup appearance. However, Albania has emerged as one of the most underestimated teams in Europe under coach Sylvinho, having lost only twice in their last 10 matches — both against England.

Playing at home in Warsaw should provide Poland with an advantage, but Albania is a formidable and confident side that will expect to triumph.

Winner: Albania

Path B final: Ukraine vs. Albania (Valencia): Prediction to follow on Monday.

PATH C
Winner enters World Cup Group D (U.S., Paraguay, Australia)

Turkey vs. Romania (Istanbul): All signs indicate that Turkey will not only win this semifinal but also secure the Path C spot at the World Cup. Coach Vincenzo Montella can rely on the attacking prowess of Real Madrid’s Arda Güler, Juventus winger Kenan Yildiz, and Porto’s Deniz Gül, along with the experience of Inter Milan midfielder Hakan Çalhanoglu and Borussia Dortmund’s Salih Özcan.

Hosting this match in Istanbul is another advantage for Turkey, as Romania, managed by the 80-year-old Mircea Lucescu, lacks experience with a squad primarily drawn from the Romanian Super League. Turkey is expected to comfortably advance to a final against Slovakia or Kosovo.

Winner: Turkey

Slovakia vs. Kosovo (Bratislava, Slovakia): Kosovo ranks as the lowest team in the European playoffs, positioned 79th, and travels to Bratislava to face a Slovakia team that won all three of their qualification home matches — including a 2-0 victory against Germany — without conceding a goal.

Home advantage appears to be a significant factor for Slovakia, who have the experience of Burnley goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka, Fenerbahce defender Milan Skriniar, and Napoli’s Stanislav Lobotka, but Kosovo should not be overlooked. Franco Foda’s team achieved home and away victories against Sweden during the qualification campaign and drew with group winners Switzerland, but despite their evident talent and determination, Kosovo must overcome Slovakia’s strong home record.

Winner: Slovakia

Path C final: Slovakia vs. Turkey (Bratislava): Prediction to follow on Monday.

PATH D
Winner enters World Cup Group A (Mexico, South Korea, South Africa)

play0:36Séamus Coleman: We want to make Ireland proud

Ireland captain Séamus Coleman aspires for the team to once again make their nation proud as they gear up for their World Cup playoff against Czech Republic.

Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland (Prague): Troy Parrott’s hat trick in a 3-2 victory over Hungary in Budapest, capped off with the decisive goal six minutes into stoppage time, secured Ireland’s impressive qualification for the playoffs. The Irish had been just a point above the bottom position heading into their final two qualifiers, but a 2-0 win against Portugal (where Parrott scored both goals) and the triumph over Hungary set up a playoff encounter against the Czechs in Prague.

Czechia remained unbeaten at home during the group stage, but Jaroslav Kostl’s squad experienced a surprising away defeat to the Faroe Islands. The Irish carry winning momentum, which could be sufficient to tip the balance in their favor.

Winner: Ireland

Denmark vs. North Macedonia (Copenhagen, Denmark): Denmark missed their chance for automatic qualification from Group C by earning just one point from their last two matches against winless Belarus and eventual group winners Scotland, which places significant pressure on Brian Riemer’s team to rectify their situation in the playoffs.

Competing at home in Copenhagen with players like Christian Eriksen, Rasmus Hojlund, and Mikkel Damsgaard — although injuries have sidelined keeper Kasper Schmeichel, along with defenders Andreas Christensen and Patrick Dorgu — should provide the Danes with enough advantages to secure a semifinal victory. However, they failed to deliver in the qualifiers, and North Macedonia’s 2022 playoff win away to Italy underscores their capability to create an upset.

The Danes are a diminishing force; North Macedonia certainly has the potential to win this matchup.

Winner: North Macedonia

Path D final: Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia (Dublin): Prediction to follow on Monday.

INTERCONTINENTAL PLAYOFFS

PATHWAY 1
Winner faces DR Congo in final, the winner of which enters World Cup Group K (Portugal, Uzbekistan, Colombia)