Fantasy basketball: Don’t be surprised if … Haliburton has more fantasy points than last season
Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised if … Chris Paul plays in 75-plus games
San Antonio Spurs C Victor Wembanyama is enjoying a remarkable second NBA season, and we could point to several of his statistics as modestly surprising. As Wembanyama and his teammates prepare for this week’s much-anticipated two-game series with the thriving Indiana Pacers in Paris, he is third in ESPN fantasy points, averaging 57.6 per game, up from 51.3 last season. Wembanyama’s averages have risen in traditional points (24.4), rebounds (10.8), blocks (4.0) and 3-pointers (3.2) and he is shooting better as well. There is nobody like Wembanyama.
Near the other end of the draft-day spectrum, future Hall of Famer Paul went outside the top 100 selections in most fantasy leagues, with meager expectations after he joined the Spurs. Paul, 39, didn’t quite fit in with the Warriors last season, producing his worst career marks in points, assists and steals. He averaged 29.5 ESPN fantasy points per game. Most of us pegged Paul as a helpful depth point guard for this season, not someone to target. He would aid Wembanyama for 50 or 60 games, but fantasy managers couldn’t really count on someone who looked just about done as a Warrior, and last surpassed 70 games in the 2015-16 season.
So it is that on a team with the great sophomore Wembanyama further emerging, perhaps the most stunning number coming from the Spurs this season is zero, the number of games that Paul has missed in his 20th NBA season. Yep, he’s been perfect so far (don’t jinx it)! Paul is averaging 33.8 fantasy points, easily No. 2 on the Spurs and a top-75 figure overall, but because of this newfound — and we sure hope it continues! — durability, Paul is a top-50 volume fantasy scorer so far. We love it! Paul does seem to be playing at a different speed, perhaps to stay healthy, and he remains an excellent distributor and defender. His top achievement, however, is doing this for every game.
play2:01Waiver wire pickups: Castle and Henderson are top options
Andre Snellings urges fantasy managers to pick up Stephon Castle and Scoot Henderson this week with both widely available in ESPN fantasy leagues.
Of course, fantasy managers should always be wary. Even while statistically underachieving last season, Paul participated in 32 of Golden State’s first 35 games into the second week of January, and then he missed six weeks with a fractured left hand. He played in the final 26 games, starting quite a few in March/April. It looked like the end of a fantastic career. Paul joined the Spurs, but figured to merely run things until UConn prospect PG/SG Stephon Castle could handle the offense. Perhaps this still happens this season, but for now, Paul is thriving, and most importantly, healthy.
One more point on Castle: If you can acquire Castle in your dynasty/keeper format, do it! He will be a star. I predicted prior to the season that he would earn the Rookie of the Year award, and this remains a wide-open race. Now back in the starting lineup, Castle recently scored 20 or more points in three consecutive games. He may not be a natural point guard, not someone likely to average more than 8.0 APG in a future season, but he will be a scorer, and he won’t be shooting 25% from 3-point range for long. Don’t be surprised if Castle averages 15.0 PPG and more than 25 fantasy points per game the rest of this season, before emerging as a star in the fall.
Don’t be surprised if … Tyrese Haliburton scores more fantasy points than last season
As for the Pacers, entering play having won eight of their past nine contests, fantasy managers have spent much of the season whining about the disappointing play of PG/SG Haliburton, who averaged 50.5 ESPN fantasy points per game last season, and is down to 43.6 points this season. Hailiburton’s scoring, assist and usage figures indeed are down, and he is attempting fewer shots, but this seems partly by design. The wildly fast Pacers led the league in scoring at 123.3 PPG last season but were easy to score on. This season, the slower Pacers average 115.2 PPG and play far more competent defense. Perhaps this is a more sustainable way to win playoff games.
Haliburton is scoring fewer fantasy points per game than last season, but thanks to missing only one game so far, combined with injuries and inconsistent play from others, only 11 players have outscored him. Last season, Haliburton played in 69 games, finishing 11th in total fantasy points, and ninth on a per-game basis. This season, a more durable Haliburton is trending better for volume, and that is important. Teammates PF Pascal Siakam and C Myles Turner are also scoring a bit less for fantasy on a per-game basis, but fantasy managers really shouldn’t be complaining about them, either.
One Pacer to watch in the second half of the season is PG/SG Andrew Nembhard, but until he becomes more of a 3-point threat, it is tough to recommend him in ESPN leagues. Nembhard averaged 13.0 PPG, 4.8 APG and he shot 50% from the field and 90.6% from the line in December, forcing us to take notice. His January numbers are not as impressive (53.6% from the line?) despite more minutes. Nembhard should be averaging 13.0 PPG and 6.0 APG on the regular, even next to Haliburton. The usage is there as a starter playing more than 30 minutes per game since November began, and we saw more upside in last season’s playoffs. He just needs to play better.
Don’t be surprised if … Kel’el Ware makes a run for top rookie honors
The Miami Heat center was not mentioned in ESPN’s midseason rookie rankings earlier this week, which is fair considering the Indiana product averages only 7.7 PPG and 4.4 RPG in 14.9 MPG. Then again, Ware’s situation changed this week, as coach Erik Spoelstra awarded him his first start on Tuesday against Portland, and he responded with 20 points, 15 rebounds and the coveted combination of two blocks and two 3-pointers. Ware was playing well lately off the bench and Miami, sitting at .500 entering Thursday’s game at Milwaukee, and not knowing how much longer it will have to deal with malcontent SF/SG/PF Jimmy Butler, needed a shakeup. Ware provided it. Fantasy managers must pay attention.
Ware is a legit 7-footer with defensive chops, an athletic shot-blocker who somehow slipped out of the lottery and into Spoelstra’s capable employ. Ware barely played the first two months, then minutes opened with C Thomas Bryant being traded to the Pacers. Ware scored 25 points on Jan. 2 against the Pacers, though he added nary a rebound. It looked like an aberrant performance. Three weeks later, as he has earned more than 30 minutes in three of five games, it doesn’t.
I still think Castle has a good chance at winning Rookie of the Year honors, because he gets ample minutes as a mature defender, and he will improve his shot-making soon. Ware offers a different skill set, obviously, and those in roto/categories formats love when shot-blockers also shoot from deep range. Bucks C Brook Lopez has been doing this for years. Lopez was third in total blocks last season, and the lone player with 100 blocked shots to also deliver more than 130 3-pointers. Wembanyama may block 300 shots and hit 250 3-pointers. Suffice to say, nobody has ever done that.
Ware isn’t going to do that, either, but we should watch how he scores his points this week, because if he keeps shooting well and playing with energy, the rookie race is wide open (Castle and Wizards C/PF Alex Sarr are ESPN BET favorites). Spoelstra seems to like having two bigs with Ware and C Bam Adebayo, and Bam isn’t much of a 3-point shooter. Backup C Nikola Jovic is getting 30 minutes a night these days, and he hits 3-pointers.
Ultimately, the unhappy Butler is going somewhere soon, and who knows what the return will be (Suns SF/SG Bradley Beal may not be any better fit, really), but the Heat has something intriguing in Ware and Jovic, and Spoelstra knows what he is doing. Just add Ware now in fantasy and see what happens later.
Source: espn.com