Australian Open 2025 experts’ picks and betting tips
The first Grand Slam of the year is upon us and the Australian Open promises to deliver epic action and storylines. Two-time defending women’s champion Aryna Sabalenka will attempt a three-peat which has eluded the game’s best since the dominant days of Steffi Graf, Monica Seles and, most recently, Martina Hingis in 1997-99. She’ll likely need to beat two of Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina to do so.
On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic and his 10 titles loom large, but 23-year-old Jannik Sinner is the defending champion and the future of men’s tennis alongside 21-year-old Carlos Alcaraz. The 2025 Australian Open begins Sunday in Melbourne. You can read more about it, or we can get down to the business of predicting winners, as well as getting an odds-on take from our tennis wagering experts.
Who do you think will win the women’s singles title, and why?
Rennae Stubbs: I think Coco Gauff can do it. Her confidence is sky-high. It will be interesting to see who gets through the top half of the draw between Aryna Sabalenka and Gauff, but whoever does is my favorite and I think it’s Coco’s time.
Jarryd Barca: I think we’re going to witness history. It’s likely to be the popular — and perhaps boring — answer, but it’s hard to go past current world No. 1 Sabalenka, who is looking to claim a third consecutive Australian Open title. It’s a feat no woman has achieved this century, and it’s the pressure of that monumental milestone that could prove to be her biggest challenge. But the 26-year-old has a strong record Down Under, winning her past five tournaments there, and in recently winning the Brisbane International, she enters the first Grand Slam of the year in top form, which is exactly what you want to see from a main contender.
Bill Connelly: It’s tempting to go with Gauff, who might be the most in-form player on tour. She’s 18-2, with a pair of wins over Iga Swiatek, since her loss to Emma Navarro at the US Open. But I’m not one to pick against a streak. It’s been almost three years since Sabalenka lost at the Australian Open (and it took a third-set match tiebreaker from ultimate-underdog Kaia Kanepi to even knock her out in 2022). Sabalenka dropped only one set in Brisbane in her first 2025 tournament, pummeling Mirra Andreeva, her potential fourth-round opponent and the only player to beat her in a Slam last year, in the process. She’s the definitive favorite.
D’Arcy Maine: Despite a tough draw, I’m still going with Gauff. After switching things up with her team and her game following her fourth-round exit at the US Open, the 20-year-old American has reclaimed her status as one of the best on tour. And she’s shown she’s capable of beating just about anyone. At the WTA Finals in November, Gauff defeated top-ranked Sabalenka in the semifinals and No. 2 Swiatek in the group stage — both in straight sets — en route to the trophy. She’s hardly slowed down in the new year. At the season-opening United Cup, Gauff won all five of her singles matches, including another decisive victory over Swiatek in the final, as she led the United States to the title. With an improved serve and grip, and surging with momentum and self-belief, Gauff has everything it takes to win her second major singles title this month in Melbourne.
Jake Michaels: It really feels like there is only one correct answer to this question: Sabalenka. The world No. 1 is the unquestioned best hard-court player on the women’s tour, having won three of the past four majors on the surface, including the past two Australian Open titles. She is in top form, having just romped to victory at the Brisbane International last month, and few would be surprised if in two weeks’ time she’s hoisting the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup once again.
Matt Walsh: Sabalenka is the logical choice — she’s just so good here — but I’m going to break rank here and throw support behind Zheng Qinwen. She was awesome in Melbourne in 2024, making the final before going down to Sabalenka, and is ranked fifth here this year. After a final in Wuhan late last year, a gold medal at Paris, and the quarters at the US Open at the last Slam of the year … could she be priming for a run Down Under?
Who do you think will win the men’s singles title, and why?
Stubbs: Sinner is my favorite. I think the court is perfect for him and I just believe his overall confidence will be hard to overcome for anyone.
Barca: Alcaraz is chasing the final piece of his puzzle and has a career Grand Slam on his mind, with the Australian Open the only major that has continued to elude him. The 21-year-old had a great 2024 campaign, winning the French Open and Wimbledon and claiming Olympic silver in Paris, while also defeating Sinner to win the China Open in Beijing. His second-round US Open exit does raise questions, and his finish to the year was hardly eyebrow-raising, but this guy’s talent is still undeniable. After last year’s quarterfinal run, it feels like a deeper push this year is inevitable for one of the sport’s brightest stars.
Connelly: First things first: It’s great to have Alcaraz and Sinner on opposite sides of the draw again! For three straight Slams they were in the same half, and their only Slam meeting came in the French Open semis. They are the two biggest stars in the sport at the moment, and we’re still waiting on the first Alcaraz-Sinner Slam final. It’s going to be great for the sport when we actually get it, and considering Alcaraz went 3-0 against Sinner during Sinner’s breakout season in 2024, it’s fair to think he might win that matchup.
But I’m picking Sinner to repeat, simply because he’s more likely to reach the final in the first place. For one thing, Alcaraz battled inconsistency issues last year. For another, everything has clicked for Sinner. He’s the best hard-courter in the world and he got a great draw, not that he needed it.
Maine: Before the draw came out, I had been leaning toward Djokovic making history at the tournament with longtime rival-turned-coach Andy Murray by his side. But then the bracket was released, and with it his incredibly challenging projected path, and let’s just say my sentimentality and the vibes changed dramatically. I simply don’t see him being able to get past the potential trio of Alcaraz (quarters), Alexander Zverev (semis) and Sinner (final) at this stage of his career. So, that said, I’m picking Sinner here, largely because he has a more favorable draw. Daniil Medvedev or Taylor Fritz could be challenging in the semis, but he had little problem against either in 2024. He was able to block the outside noise at the US Open and, if he can do the same this time around, defending his title is well within reach.
Michaels: Everything in my bones is telling me Sinner deserves his Australian Open favoritism and will likely go back-to-back Down Under, but how can you ever bet against Djokovic? Last year was a “down” year for the Serb, yet he still made the Wimbledon final and won that elusive Olympic gold medal. Being just one major title away from an outright record 25 Slam triumphs, you know motivation will be as high as ever. And, oh yeah, he’s been pretty handy at this tournament throughout the years!
Walsh: It’s tough to defend a Slam title, and there’s going to be a lot more attention on Sinner after his doping case. Alcaraz has struggled here, Medvedev is flying into Melbourne late after the birth of his second child, and Djokovic is 37. Who else is a genuine threat in the top 10? Zverev? Fritz, Casper Ruud, or Alex De Minaur? I get the feeling this could be the year that someone shocks the tournament for a first Slam win. Maybe it’ll be Zverev.
What is your best bet for the men’s side and why?
Maldonado: Novak Djokovic to reach final (+230)
Djokovic enters as the third favorite but remains a strong contender for an unprecedented 11th title. The Serbian legend, with a perfect 10-0 record in Australian Open finals, now has Andy Murray as his coach. Murray’s unique perspective as a former top player and longtime rival could provide fresh strategies to enhance Djokovic’s game. Despite a challenging 2024 season, Djokovic’s hunger for a 25th Grand Slam title endures. With Murray’s insights and Djokovic’s dominance in Melbourne, this partnership could spark another historic triumph.
Snellings: Djokovic (+550)
This is still the Joker’s house, and even with the tough draw, if he gets past Alcaraz to make the final, I don’t think he stops there. With the retirement of Rafael Nadal and his inevitability at Roland Garros, there is not a single player on the tour with the type of dominance at any Grand Slam like Djokovic has at the Australian Open. He has won 10 of the past 13 times he has played the event, including four of his past five. Djokovic reportedly had a fever the night before his semifinal loss last season, and was not allowed to compete in 2022 due to his COVID vaccination status, but other than that he has won every Australian Open since 2019. While there are two young lions on tour establishing their own supremacy in the post-Big Three era, until Djokovic retires I will have him as my favorite to win the Australian Open. And him getting more juice than the other two favorites doesn’t hurt, either.
What is your best bet for the women’s side and why?
Maldonado: Aryna Sabalenka to win (+200)
Sabalenka has dominated Melbourne, winning the past two titles, and now boasts three consecutive hard-court major wins, including the 2024 US Open. Sabalenka has improved her game significantly, reducing double faults to a career low and achieving a career high in first-serve percentage. With titles in Cincinnati, Wuhan and the Brisbane International, she’s in peak form. Her odds offer value for a player poised to make history with a third consecutive Melbourne triumph.
Snellings: Sabalenka to win (+200
Sabalenka seems to have a special affinity for the Australian Open. She has won the past two Opens in dominant fashion, dropping only a single set in 2023 and not losing any sets last year. Sabalenka entered 2025 as the No. 1 player in the world, the first time she has ever achieved that, and has already won the Brisbane International title to start the year. With her overwhelming power, plus the added confidence after winning multiple majors, Sabalenka is in the driver’s seat to win her third straight title in Melbourne. And she’s getting enough juice at 2-to-1 odds that backing her now would return solid value. I expect she’ll be the odds-on favorite by the start of Week 2.
What is your favorite long shot bet to win the women’s title and why?
Maldonado: Zheng Qinwen (+1400)
The 22-year-old reached the 2024 final, proving her ability on Melbourne’s courts. Her breakout year included Olympic gold, three singles titles and a WTA Finals appearance, finishing the season ranked world No. 5. Known for her powerful serve and a potent forehand, Zheng combines aggressive play with improving consistency and tactical awareness. Skipping the United Cup to focus on Melbourne highlights her commitment. At +1400, her odds offer value for a player on the rise with a proven record in high-stakes matches.
Snellings: Jessica Pegula (+2800)
Pegula is getting an awful lot of juice for a player with her résumé on hard courts. Pegula lost a hard-fought 7-5, 7-5 match to Sabalenka in the Finals of the 2024 US Open, which came on the heels of her winning one WTA 1000 event (Canadian Open) and making the finals of another (Cincinnati Open) on hard courts. And while she lost early in last year’s Australian Open, she has had more success in Melbourne than at any other Slam, with three straight quarterfinals appearances from 2021 through 2023. Pegula has shown she can compete and win on hard courts at the highest levels, which makes her 28-to-1 odds strong value for those looking to back a long shot with a chance to win.
What is your favorite long shot bet to win the men’s title and why?
Snellings: Daniil Medvedev (+1600)
Medvedev has been knocking on the door to win the Australian Open for years now, coming tantalizingly close multiple times while consistently giving himself chances. Medvedev has played in three of the past four Australian Open finals, losing to three different champions. Djokovic stopped him in three sets in 2021, but in both 2022 (Rafael Nadal) and 2024 (Sinner), Medvedev pushed the final to five sets. His length, use of power and angles, and a surprising quickness on defense make him very difficult to beat on hard courts. He won the 2021 US Open, has six finals appearances between the Australian and US Opens, and has won multiple Masters 1000-level events on the surface. And he has the experience and game to look any of the favorites in the eye and expect to defeat them. He is value at +1600, as one of the few players I believe has a legitimate chance to win this event.
Maldonado: Taylor Fritz (+2000)
Fritz is a strong contender for majors, no longer just a “why not” candidate. He showcased excellent form by winning the 2025 United Cup with Team USA and reached the 2024 US Open final, proving his Grand Slam potential. Achieving a career-high ranking of world No. 4 and breaking into the ATP top 5 highlight his upward trajectory. Fritz excels in five-set matches and thrives in Melbourne’s California-like conditions. His improved explosiveness and confidence position him as a legitimate threat for any major title.
Source: espn.com