How to bet on golf: Tips to win in 2025, plus PGA Championship picks
Betting on golf is a beautiful, maddening, exhilarating puzzle — kind of like standing over a three-footer to save par with your buddies watching. There are tons of ways to bet on a tournament, but if you’re blindly firing outright winners and hoping for the best, you’re likely going to find yourself in a financial bunker.
Instead, here’s a step-by-step guide on how to structure your betting card like a pro, balancing risk and reward to make sure you’re in the hunt come Sunday.
When betting on golf, three key factors often come into play: course fit, current form and course history.
Course fit is all about how a golfer’s skill set aligns with the layout — whether it’s a bomber’s paradise, a precision-heavy track or a putting contest.
Current form looks at recent results, momentum and confidence — because a player striping it tee-to-green last week is more appealing than one searching for his swing.
Course history is the comfort factor — some players see certain courses better, whether it’s the type of grass or memories of past success. The sweet spot is when all three align. But in betting, you’re looking for the best value, and sometimes weighing one over the others is where you find the edge.
Understand your betting options
Golf betting is more than just picking a winner. There are plenty of ways to get action — some safer than others — and if you structure your bets correctly, you can still cash even if your outright pick implodes. Here’s a quick rundown of the most popular wagers:
Outright winner
This is the classic “who’s holding the trophy on Sunday?” bet. Because golf fields are massive, outright odds are juicy — but that also means they’re tough to hit. A 30-1 ticket is fun, but only if you’re betting outright winners. You’ll have a lot of weekends where your wallet looks like the rough at a U.S. Open.
Top-5, top-10 and top-20 finishes
Think of these as more conservative wagers, with top 20-bets being the higher-probability plays. Instead of needing a golfer to win, they just have to finish inside a certain range. A top-20 bet at +120 might not sound thrilling, but cashing these consistently will keep your bankroll alive while you’re sprinkling on outright tickets.
A golfer at 30-1 to win the tournament has a 3.2% implied probability of winning. Compare that to a top-20 bet at +200 (33% implied probability) — huge difference, right? That’s why I bet less on longer odds and more on higher-probability plays.
First-round leader
This is where things get fun. Instead of sweating a full four-day tournament, you just need your golfer to lead after 18 holes. Since first-round odds are often 20-1 or longer, I bet these in fractions of a unit (more on that later). Morning tee times, calm conditions and aggressive scorers are key factors in first-round leader betting. If you like a player to potentially win a tournament, then you certainly want to risk something on him to come out strong in the opening round. If it hits, you’re potentially freerolling the rest of your card.
Head-to-head matchups
If betting outright winners is like aiming for the pin, matchup bets are like a layup to the middle of the green. You’re just picking one golfer to beat another, either for a single round or the full tournament. A much more controlled way to bet. I prefer betting a full tournament, as it offers the bigger picture outcome over the course of four days as opposed to higher volatility with just a single round. There are also three-ball matchups. Think head-to-head but with three players. Longer odds, but adding a third brings more risk.
Props and majors-only markets
Majors unlock a buffet of fun bets. Some you see on a weekly basis, while others you only see for the biggest tournaments of the year:
Top American, top European, etc.: Picking the best finisher from a specific region.
Will there be a hole-in-one?: Self-explanatory. Always fun, always tempting.
Lowest round, highest round: Will someone go full Cam Smith at St. Andrews (-8)? Or will someone post an 82 in windy conditions?
Make the cut parlays: A combination of players to make the cut line.
Structuring your betting card and managing your bet size
Throwing darts at the board and hoping for a bull’s-eye isn’t a strategy — it’s a good way to run out of funds before the weekend. And if you’re putting the same amount on everything, stop right now — that’s the equivalent of using a putter from the fairway.
Instead, I like to build my card around two or three players and mix in different bet types to balance risk and reward. Since golf odds vary wildly, bet sizing needs to be proportional to the risk.
This works because top 20s provide consistency, cashing more often and keeping your bankroll steady. Top-10 and top-5 wagers could be .5 units, while outright winners could range from .2 to .25, since they are harder to hit. First-round leaders are even higher risk but high reward, not only giving you a shot at a big win but also at lower bet sizes. Spreading bets across different markets keeps you in play all tournament. Even if your outright pick stumbles, your top-20 bet could still cash. The longer the odds, the smaller your bet size, since it is a much lower implied probability to hit. Betting too large on long shots can wipe you out quickly if you go on a losing streak.
If you’re betting multiple players (five or more) in an event, your total stake needs to be balanced so you don’t go all-in on a single golfer. The more players you add, the more you need to adjust individual bet sizes to keep total exposure in check.
PGA Tour’s biggest tournaments: The four majors and golf’s ‘fifth major’
Like anything else, betting on golf is about staying disciplined and using wagering as a way to enhance your viewing experience. Golf betting can be a grind. If you’re expecting to hit an outright winner every week, you’re in for a rude awakening. But by structuring your bets wisely, managing risk and spreading exposure across different markets, you can stay profitable and keep the sweat alive all weekend.
PGA Championship: May 15-18, Quail Hollow Club
U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont Country Club
The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush
Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, won in playoff)
The Players Championship: Rory McIlroy (-12, won in playoff)
With one of the strongest fields, a massive purse and TPC Sawgrass setting the stage, it’s as close to a major as it gets. It may not have the official label, but the drama, history and that island green at 17 make it one of the best tournaments of the year.
Bets to make on the 2025 PGA Championship
Odds are accurate as of publication. For latest odds go to ESPN BET.
Quail Hollow isn’t just about shipping it to the moon; it’s about being bold and smart at the same time. You’ve got to take risks off the tee and know how to handle tough shots when the course throws challenges your way. It rewards players who don’t just play it safe, but know when to go for it and when to dial it back. For this PGA Championship, I’m backing guys who aren’t afraid to take chances while staying steady under pressure. The guys who win at Quail Hollow are the ones who can bomb it off the tee, hit towering long irons, and scramble like mad when they miss.
This year, it feels like Rory McIlroy against the LIV guys, the ultimate showdown. McIlroy’s got the history, the form and the course knowledge. He’s basically the king of this track. Then you’ve got the LIV guys like Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, coming in with something to prove, but they’re walking into Rory’s territory. It’s not just about skill; it’s about pride and making a statement. If there’s ever a place where Rory puts his foot down and reminds everyone who owns Quail Hollow, it’s here.
Let’s break down golf’s second major.
My favorite bets
Rory McIlroy Top 5 (+110) and win (+475)
Picking the second-favorite, how original, right? Except, McIlroy at Quail Hollow is putting a lion back in its territory. He knows every inch of this course. He’s won here four times, including his first PGA title in 2010, and the 2024 edition of the Wells Fargo Championship. His combination of length off the tee and ability to score on the par-5s makes him a natural fit. Quail Hollow rewards aggressive drivers who can shape shots, and McIlroy’s high fade suits the layout perfectly.
Yes, Rory just won the 2025 Masters, but he did so showcasing his ability to close out a big tournament under immense pressure, while navigating the ebbs and flows of the game. His putting, which if there was a weak area, then it would be that, has been reliable, and if he carries that momentum into Charlotte, he’s a threat to lap the field. On approach, he’s been dialed in, fourth in the field in strokes gained in the last 32 rounds.
Quail Hollow’s greens are tricky, but when McIlroy is in rhythm, his confident stroke on fast surfaces is an asset. He ranks second from tee to green, excels with his long irons, crucial at a track that stretches beyond 7,500 yards. His elite ball-striking and course familiarity make him a high-confidence play for both a Top 5 finish and the outright win.
For the Masters, I suggested waiting after Round 1 for a better number live. This time, I suggest taking the pre-tournament odds. His dominance here makes it worth it. If that number is too short for your liking, Top 5 is the way to go.
Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (+105)
There are only two players I would ever feel comfortable with for a Top 5. Rory and Scottie. Scheffler is the definition of consistent. The guy’s been a machine all season, piling up top finishes in elite fields, three Top 5’s in his last four starts, including a win in the RBC Heritage destroying the course with a 31 under par overall score. He’s got the best tee-to-green game on Tour right now and leads in strokes gained total. That kind of steadiness travels well, even to a place like Quail Hollow where he’s making his PGA Tour debut. Risky, but warranted.
His improved putting lately is a big plus. Even when he’s not at his absolute best, he’s still in the mix because his ball-striking is that good.
With his form trending up after a win and his ability to stay composed in major settings, getting Scottie at plus money for a Top 5 feels like a solid calculated wager.
Jon Rahm Top 20 (-105)
Rahm for a Top 20 for the PGA Championship just makes sense. Quail Hollow is built for a guy like him. Blasts it off the box, precise with long irons, and has the ability to grind through tough conditions. He’s 9th in driving distance and 11th in accuracy, so he can sail it and keep it in play, exactly what this course demands. Unlike Augusta, where he surprisingly lost strokes on approach, only the second time this year that’s happened, Quail Hollow rewards his tee-to-green dependability. Rahm’s long game is typically rock-solid, and this setup allows him to lean on that strength without being overly punished for a rare off week with his irons. The -105 price feels like a steal for a guy who has finished Top 15 in five of the last 10 majors he’s played.
Corey Conners Top 20 (+200)
Conners impresses me each week. His tee-to-green game is dialed in, 6th in the field, and at Quail Hollow, that’s half the battle. His driving accuracy (17th) is a huge asset here, especially when the rough is thick and penal. Plus, his long iron game, particularly from 200-225 yards (8th). gives him a real edge on those longer par 4s. Sure, his putting can be hit or miss, but he doesn’t need a lights-out week on the greens to finish in the top 20. At +200, you’re getting value on a guy who fits this setup perfectly, and riding a Top 20 heater, six in his last seven starts. At +200, the implied probability feels too low for someone of his caliber on this course.
Full tournament head-to-head
Rory McIlroy (-125) vs. Bryson DeChambeau
This is about reliability. McIlroy’s game holds up over four rounds at a challenging venue like this, while DeChambeau is more of a wildcard, as highlighted at Augusta last month, scoring 20 under par thru the first three holes, and three over on Day 4. When DeChambeau’s driver gets wild or his putter goes cold, his rounds can go sideways fast. With McIlroy’s history at Quail Hollow and his balanced game give him the edge. Bryson might outdrive him, but Rory’s combination of distance and accuracy makes him more reliable.
Jon Rahm (-135) vs. Collin Morikawa
On a course that stretches over 7,500 yards, Rahm’s ability to hit it long and still find the fairway is invaluable. Even when Rahm doesn’t have his A-game, he typically grinds out a respectable finish. Morikawa, on the other hand, can fall apart if his putter or short game isn’t cooperating. That kind of volatility makes him a riskier bet in a head-to-head. You’re betting on a hammer with accuracy, and the ability to minimize mistakes, essential for four rounds at Quail Hollow.
How to bet Bryson DeChambeau
You may love DeChambeau to win this tournament and I get it. He goes full throttle off the tee, which is tailor-made for this course, and if he’s in control, he can overpower Quail Hollow.
But for me, Top 10 at +110 just doesn’t cut it. DeChambeau’s game can flip on a dime: when he’s dialed in, he can dominate, but when his driver gets wild or his putter goes cold, it’s game over. I’d rather wait to see how he handles Round 1 and reassess. If he’s in form, you might find a better live line for a Top 10 or even a Top 5 finish.
Source: espn.com