How to bet on golf: Tips and strategies to win in 2025, plus Masters picks
Betting on golf is a beautiful, maddening, exhilarating puzzle — kind of like standing over a three-footer to save par with your buddies watching. There are tons of ways to bet on a tournament, but if you’re blindly firing outright winners and hoping for the best, you’re likely going to find yourself in a financial bunker.
Instead, here’s a step-by-step guide on how to structure your betting card like a pro, balancing risk and reward to make sure you’re in the hunt come Sunday.
When betting on golf, three key factors often come into play: course fit, current form and course history.
Course fit is all about how a golfer’s skill set aligns with the layout — whether it’s a bomber’s paradise, a precision-heavy track or a putting contest.
Current form looks at recent results, momentum and confidence — because a player striping it tee-to-green last week is more appealing than one searching for his swing.
Course history is the comfort factor — some players see certain courses better, whether it’s the type of grass or memories of past success. The sweet spot is when all three align. But in betting, you’re looking for the best value, and sometimes weighing one over the others is where you find the edge.
Understand your betting options
Golf betting is more than just picking a winner. There are plenty of ways to get action — some safer than others — and if you structure your bets correctly, you can still cash even if your outright pick implodes. Here’s a quick rundown of the most popular wagers:
Outright winner
This is the classic “who’s holding the trophy on Sunday?” bet. Because golf fields are massive, outright odds are juicy — but that also means they’re tough to hit. A 30-1 ticket is fun, but only if you’re betting outright winners. You’ll have a lot of weekends where your wallet looks like the rough at a U.S. Open.
Top-5, top-10 and top-20 finishes
Think of these as more conservative wagers, with top 20-bets being the higher-probability plays. Instead of needing a golfer to win, they just have to finish inside a certain range. A top-20 bet at +120 might not sound thrilling, but cashing these consistently will keep your bankroll alive while you’re sprinkling on outright tickets.
A golfer at 30-1 to win the tournament has a 3.2% implied probability of winning. Compare that to a top-20 bet at +200 (33% implied probability) — huge difference, right? That’s why I bet less on longer odds and more on higher-probability plays.
First-round leader
This is where things get fun. Instead of sweating a full four-day tournament, you just need your golfer to lead after 18 holes. Since first-round odds are often 20-1 or longer, I bet these in fractions of a unit (more on that later). Morning tee times, calm conditions and aggressive scorers are key factors in first-round leader betting. If you like a player to potentially win a tournament, then you certainly want to risk something on him to come out strong in the opening round. If it hits, you’re potentially freerolling the rest of your card.
Head-to-head matchups
If betting outright winners is like aiming for the pin, matchup bets are like a layup to the middle of the green. You’re just picking one golfer to beat another, either for a single round or the full tournament. A much more controlled way to bet. I prefer betting a full tournament, as it offers the bigger picture outcome over the course of four days as opposed to higher volatility with just a single round. There are also 3-ball matchups. Think head-to-head but with three players. Longer odds, but adding a third brings more risk.
Props and majors-only markets
Majors unlock a buffet of fun bets. Some you see on a weekly basis, while others you only see for the biggest tournaments of the year:
Top American, top European, etc.: Picking the best finisher from a specific region.
Will there be a hole-in-one?: Self-explanatory. Always fun, always tempting.
Lowest round, highest round: Will someone go full Cam Smith at St. Andrews (-8)? Or will someone post an 82 in windy conditions?
Make the cut parlays: A combination of players to make the cut line.
Structuring your betting card and managing your bet size
Throwing darts at the board and hoping for a bullseye isn’t a strategy — it’s a good way to run out of funds before the weekend. And if you’re putting the same amount on everything, stop right now — that’s the equivalent of using a putter from the fairway.
Instead, I like to build my card around two or three players and mix in different bet types to balance risk and reward. Since golf odds vary wildly, bet sizing needs to be proportional to the risk.
This works because top 20s provide consistency, cashing more often and keeping your bankroll steady. Top-10 and top-5 wagers could be .5 units, while outright winners could range from .2 to .25, since they are harder to hit. First-round leaders are even higher risk, but high reward, not only giving you a shot at a big win but at lower bet sizes. Spreading bets across different markets keeps you in play all tournament. Even if your outright pick stumbles, your top-20 bet could still cash. The longer the odds, the smaller your bet size, since it is a much lower implied probability to hit. Betting too large on long shots can wipe you out quickly if you go on a losing streak.
If you’re betting multiple players (five or more) in an event, your total stake needs to be balanced so you don’t go all-in on a single golfer. The more players you add, the more you need to adjust individual bet sizes to keep total exposure in check.
PGA Tour’s biggest tournament schedule: The four majors and golf’s ‘fifth major’
THE PLAYERS Championship: March 13 – 16, TPC Sawgrass
Expect some predictions from me when The PLAYERS Championship rolls around, because this one always delivers. With one of the strongest fields, a massive purse and TPC Sawgrass setting the stage, it’s as close to a major as it gets. It may not have the official label, but the drama, history and that island green at 17 make it one of the best tournaments of the year.
Majors
Masters Tournament: April 10-13, Augusta National Golf Club
PGA Championship: May 15-18, Quail Hollow Club
U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont Country Club
The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush
Like anything else, betting on golf is about staying disciplined and using wagering as a way to enhance your viewing experience. Golf betting can be a grind. If you’re expecting to hit an outright winner every week, you’re in for a rude awakening. But by structuring your bets wisely, managing risk and spreading exposure across different markets, you can stay profitable and keep the sweat alive all weekend.
Bets to make on the 2025 Masters
Corey Conners Top 20 Finish (+155)
This time last year, Conners was losing strokes around the green and with the putter, relying entirely on his ball-striking to carry him. Now? His irons have leveled a bit, but he’s gaining in every strokes gained category, including putting. That’s a real shift. His last two trips to Augusta weren’t ideal (MC, T38), but before that, he had three straight Top 10s. And now he’s coming in with some juice-multiple Top 20s in strong fields and steady tee-to-green play. He doesn’t need to catch fire. He just needs to stay steady.
Friday’s rain helps. It means softer greens, which takes some pressure off the putter and gives Conners more room to lean on his approach game. He can stuff it tight and let his irons do the work. Once the weekend hits and the course firms up, Augusta starts playing tougher — exactly the kind of setup that rewards elite ball-strikers. Another plus.
Jon Rahm Top 10 Finish (+170)
Rahm finished T45 at last year’s Masters, but it came during the only stretch in 2024 where his form truly dipped. From April through June, he lost strokes on approach — something rarely seen in his profile. That run included a poor showing at Augusta, a missed cut at the PGA Championship, and a withdrawal from the U.S. Open. Physically and mentally, he just wasn’t right and it showed.
Now? He’s trending. LIV form doesn’t always translate to majors, but Rahm has proven he can bridge that gap. You’re backing one of the most complete players in the world at a course where he’s consistently contended — three Top 10s in his last five starts, including a green jacket. There’s no real weakness when he’s dialed in, and the recent data points to a return to that level. The setup suits him. The track record holds. After a one-off down year, he’s a bounce-back candidate worth backing.
Collin Morikawa Top 10 Finish (+125)
Morikawa is my pick to don the green jacket. He’s trending upward at Augusta-showing increasing course comfort, gaining strokes putting in each of his last four Masters starts, including four strokes putting last year. Is that a rare spike or a repeatable result in a place of familiarity?
Even still, he’s one of only two players to finish in the Masters Top 10 each of the last two years-the other being Scottie Scheffler. When his ball-striking is trending beautifully-first in the field in approach, ball striking and tee-to-green, and second in strokes gained total behind Rory McIlroy — you take notice that his odds are “of value.”
This is a player who was in the final group last year, owns two majors, and could thrive in rainy conditions. It’s time. The putter will be key, especially if weather delays reset green speeds. But you don’t back Morikawa for the putter-you back him for the dialed-in approach game.
He’s a high-upside wager with a modest win probability. To bet him outright? Only if you believe he can survive Augusta’s greens. I do.
How to wager Rory McIlroy
If not Morikawa, it’s time for Rory. McIlroy is one of the most complete players in the field — mentally ready, statistically elite and trending into Augusta with precision. If you’re not ready to pull the trigger on Rory outright (or pay -140 for a Top 10), you’re not alone. The number is short, the pressure of chasing the career grand slam is real, and the history at Augusta is complicated. But there’s still a sharp way to play him — especially with the way the weather sets up.
The move? Wait and watch.
If McIlroy opens Thursday with a solid but not spectacular round, you’ll likely get a better number live. And if that happens before the Friday rain hits and softens the course, that’s your entry. McIlroy ranks third in the field in ball striking-soft greens only amplify that edge. If the setup allows, he can absolutely go low.
You can either wait on the live line entirely or put a half unit on McIlroy at +650 before the tournament. Drop the second half-unit live, and you’re sitting on a blended ticket around +725 or better.
If you’re betting McIlroy, it’s not about Thursday fireworks — it’s about timing your entry before Augusta separates the contenders from the pretenders. Think not just outright, but the Top 10 live market, too.
McIlroy doesn’t need to force it. Neither should you.
Note: I reference other betting options in the 2025 Masters Betting Roundtable, mentioning additional talking points on Conners, Morikawa and more.
Source: espn.com