Why feints, traps and body shots could determine Usyk-Fury 2

The first fight between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk in May was closely contested, with two judges scoring it for Usyk (115-112 and 114-113), giving him a split-decision victory at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Both Fury, who went into the fight as WBC champion and lineal champion, and Usyk, who owned the WBA, WBO and IBF belts, showed their strengths but also weaknesses throughout the fight. They must make some changes to avoid the same mistakes and create an effective strategy for their rematch.

Usyk landed 170 punches on Fury (the most landed by any of his opponents), including an incredible 70 body punches to 46 by Fury. Will Fury be able to avoid Usyk’s body attack? Can Fury out-jab Usyk and keep him out of range? Let’s look at how the rematch Saturday could play out.

Fury’s mistakes

play1:19Tale of the tape: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury II

Take a look at how heavyweights Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury compare ahead of their much-anticipated rematch on Saturday, December 21.

Fury’s performance in the first fight revealed several critical mistakes that occasionally hindered his effectiveness. One major issue was his excessive use of the long guard (lead hand extended straight out), a technique used to control the space between fighters, creating a barrier-like defense. But while this maneuver allowed Fury to control Usyk in spots, keeping him at bay. Despite the long guard helping Fury, the fleet-footed Ukrainian often slipped past the extended arm with precise head movement. Usyk’s mid-entry (simultaneously slipping past the long guard into midrange and throwing the straight left to the body) slowed Fury down in the last half of the fight.

Fury often walked right into Usyk’s power, a common pitfall of Fury when facing a southpaw. His tendency to move back in a straight line made him vulnerable, especially when forced against the ropes. Fury’s guard placement was another concern. His hands remained low and out of position most of the time, leaving him susceptible to Usyk’s pinpoint offense.

Fury wasn’t sharp, and his hand speed and accuracy weren’t the same as usual. That likely was due to the demanding pace of the fight, particularly given his age and the wear and tear from previous fights. Fury started slowly and lost some early rounds, which set a disadvantageous tone for the rest of the fight, as he was having to play catch-up at the end. Fury even had footwork issues that contributed to his struggles, particularly when moving laterally to his right and even when he squared up while throwing his right cross.

What Fury did well

Some of Fury’s tactics were successful in the first fight, and he can again employ them in the rematch. His feints were pivotal in setting up his offense, forcing Usyk to second-guess when he would attack. By attacking off the feints, Fury kept Usyk on the defensive, freezing him in an inactive high guard and opening up occasional combinations as Usyk moved forward. Fury’s feints also allowed him to utilize a sharp jab and effectively relocate Usyk’s head positions and guards with probes. Moving to his left, Usyk’s weak side, helped Fury land straight rights and made Usyk readjust his point of attack. However, Fury did not do this often enough.

Fury’s uppercut proved valiant against Usyk’s overly aggressive, lunging approach, capitalizing on Usyk’s instinct to retaliate quickly after he got hit. Throughout, Fury’s long guard acted as a speed bump, altering Usyk’s plan to close distance, keeping him momentarily flustered and occupied in a jousting battle.

What Usyk did well

Usyk demonstrated a rapid pace and sound techniques and strategies that capitalized on Fury’s mistakes. His ability to dominate lead foot positioning outside Fury’s allowed him to line up his straight, looping left hand and force Fury to reach with his right cross. Usyk effectively broke clinches by keeping his elbows tight to his body, avoiding reaching out and being entangled in Fury’s long arms, minimizing the risk of roughhouse tactics.

Usyk’s relentless pressure created opportunities, mainly when Fury found himself stationary or along the ropes. Usyk’s superior technique, stamina and conditioning were evident as he started fast and finished strong, pushing Fury into uncomfortable positions and taking advantage of his own lower center of gravity and big motor.

What Usyk must improve

Usyk also made his share of mistakes. He occasionally reacted to feints, leaving himself open for counters. He often reached and lunged for desperate offense. His footwork issues, particularly when disengaging, left him out of position and unable to return fire when needed. Usyk’s high guard, while generally effective, left him open to body shots and uppercuts, mainly when he followed Fury too closely into midrange and failed to cut off the ring appropriately.

Usyk must avoid Fury’s right crosses and not walk into right-hand traps. He should ignore Fury’s feints and stay close enough to counter him between and after he punches. I expect Fury to stop attacking from the same angle this time and vary his attack points throughout the night.

How the rematch can play out

Both fighters have physical vulnerabilities that could impact the fight. Fury’s punch resistance was tested in his grueling fights with Deontay Wilder, and it became an issue for him when he was knocked down by Francis Ngannou and rocked in the first fight against Usyk. Fury is 36, and age possibly has diminished his stamina, making rounds feel longer as the fight progresses. On the flip side, Usyk has a notable weakness when absorbing body shots. The impact on him by a controversial low blow he received last year from Daniel Dubois, perceived by many as a legal body shot, further highlights my suspicion.

Fury must be assertive early in the fight. Moving to his left more often will help him evade Usyk’s sharp and stinging left hand while enhancing his own defense and positioning. Attacking the body is also essential to slow Usyk down. Throwing more combinations and moving forward at every opportunity will better his chance of victory. Incorporating the left hook to set up his right cross could be advantageous and innovative for Fury, showing something different.

For Usyk, adjustments should include avoiding lunging and reaching, using feints to create angles and increasing his combination output. He should focus on moving forward and cutting off the ring while refining his footwork to avoid being caught in unfavorable positions. Plus, avoid standing in front of Fury with an inactive high guard.

Who wins?

Fury can adjust his fighting style, shifting to a more aggressive approach and better using his weight for a physical edge. He came in lighter than usual for their first battle (262 pounds), but I suspect he’ll bulk up this time to intimidate and use his size against the smaller Usyk (who was 223 ½ for the first bout). But while Fury has an extensive range of skills, Usyk possesses superior technique, quicker hands and good footwork, impressive stamina and exceptional ring intelligence. I believe Usyk will secure another victory, but this time by knockout.

Ian Parker’s best bet

The first fight was extremely competitive and lived up to the hype, and I believe the rematch can do the same. However, I don’t think the result will be much different. As good as Fury is, the speed and durability of Usyk will give him the same trouble it did in their first fight. If Fury doesn’t land something early that throws Usyk off his game and slows down his pace, I expect Usyk to out-volume strike Fury for another victory.

Prediction: Usyk by decision.

Source: espn.com