As retired football great Marshawn Lynch famously said, “It don’t get no better than solid.” And when it comes to the boxing world, Saturday’s matchup between Gervonta Davis and Lamont Roach Jr. is just that: solid.
Davis, the WBA lightweight champion, is a fan favorite known for his brash ways and knockout power. He’ll be defending his title against Roach, a fighter with whom he shares a rivalry that dates back to 2011, when they were amateurs.
Roach has been a top contender for quite some time, and in 2023 he captured the WBA junior lightweight belt. But his career hasn’t been without setbacks. In November 2019, he faced Jamel Herring for the WBO junior lightweight title and lost by unanimous decision. That experience taught him valuable lessons for his next title fight.
That would come four years later in November 2023, and Roach’s hard work and dedication turned things for the best when he faced Hector Luis Garcia, an opponent Davis had beaten 10 months before. In a close fight, Roach staged an impressive finish, scoring a knockdown in the final round and ultimately winning by split decision. Since then, he’s defended his title once, an eighth-round stoppage win over the previously undefeated Feargal McCrory last June.
Now Roach (25-1-1, 10 KOs) sets his sights on a bold new goal: winning a world title in a second weight class. But he’s facing “Tank” Davis (30-0, 28 KOs), one of boxing’s most dangerous and exciting fighters, whose reputation in the ring is nothing short of must-watch.
Let’s look at the matchup, explain both fighters’ styles and anticipate how the fight could play out.
The matchup
Although Roach is moving up in weight to face Davis, it’s noteworthy that his first professional fight was at 140 pounds, the same weight as Saturday’s fight. Although Roach may be the lighter man, his skill and fighting spirit are mighty. Standing at 5-foot-7 with a reported 68-inch wingspan, he is slightly taller than Davis (5-foot-5½, 67½-inch reach).
Roach, 29, has transformed and developed his game throughout his career, working on his techniques and trusting his team. He started boxing at a young age, trained by his cousin Bernard “Boogaloo” Roach. Bernard passed away in 2017, and Lamont Roach Sr. became his son’s new trainer. Under that guidance, Roach has improved his counterpunching abilities, refined his punching techniques, enhanced his defense and improved the way he delivers his punches under a solid foundation.
These improvements have paid off, as he’s inflicted severe damage on his competition. Since that tough loss to Herring, Roach has scored six knockdowns over six fights, stopping three of his opponents — two by breathtaking body shots and one with a combination of both head and body shots.
Davis, a left-handed fighter who brings knockout power and ferocious energy with every punch, recently made a significant change to his team by parting ways with his long-time trainer, Calvin Ford. For this fight, he brought in the renowned head trainer Barry Hunter from the Headbangers gym in Washington, D.C.
Hunter has a calm demeanor and approach to boxing, and unique and challenging training methods. He is known for training technically skilled, well-conditioned, mentally tough fighters. Davis’ fighting style aligns perfectly with Hunter’s philosophy, and I expect solid results on fight night.
Davis’ experience and patience key to the fight
Davis keeps his stance low, allowing him to launch upward with power shots. His approach to fights is like a bird-watcher sitting quietly on a bench, patiently taking in the surroundings. With his high guard gloves projected upward on his forehead, it’s as if he’s created binoculars to observe his opponent closely, looking through his guards and patiently waiting for the appropriate time to attack.
Davis is a master at sneaking past defenses and counterpunching, delivering explosive attacks through single punches or combinations. He often starts slowly, analyzing the fight and gradually ramping up his intensity as he gathers information.
Experience and patience are divine qualities that can set fighters apart in the boxing ring. While concentration is vital, it’s not the same as patience. And Davis is an experienced and patient fighter. Think of patience in the ring as controlling your and your opponents’ reactions, meticulously moving throughout the ring, limiting mistakes and exposure. Patience helps a fighter remain calm and relaxed, freeing up unnecessary tension so punches become much more efficient, spot-on and ultimately fight-ending. An example: Davis throws about 25 fewer punches per round than the rest of the lightweight division’s fighters, but he lands 36% of his punches, a much higher percentage than the division’s 28% average.
Experience in the ring develops boxing smarts, helping a fighter recognize patterns, movements and even subtle cues in body language that reveal an opponent’s offensive and defensive strategies. What makes a fighter like Davis so special isn’t just his punching power, hand speed or fast-twitch explosiveness, but his combination of ring experience and patient approach. He knows how to read situations and positioning behaviors, making him almost a mind reader inside the ring.
How can Roach upset Davis?
I consider Davis to be the faster of the two fighters, and I see a few technical weaknesses in Roach’s style that could get him into trouble. Tactically, I envision Davis slowly applying pressure on Roach, as counterpunchers such as Roach need space and distance to see punches coming so they can counter. I’ve noticed Roach stands his ground when being pressured, catching punches on his guard and shooting back with offense. The problem with this defensive approach against a prolific puncher is that catching punches relies on reflexes, which leave a fighter momentarily stationary. That is something Davis will take advantage of.
However, Roach presents challenges for Davis, too. Roach has two punches in his arsenal that can be helpful and problematic. One is his left hook, which he utilizes against southpaws (such as Davis) from inside foot position. It’s a punch that can be launched from out of view. Davis’ high guard likely blocks his peripheral vision a bit, allowing hooks to start within his view but quickly exit his sight before landing. The other Roach punch that could be pivotal is the right hook, a powerful weapon against a southpaw. This requires exceptional timing and positioning, with the left foot placed outside the lead foot of the southpaw stance, known as lead foot dominance.
Both punches can target Davis’ head and body. However, it’s important to note that straight punches can effectively time wide punches, so Davis can land first unless Roach has impeccable timing. Feints can also be a valuable tool for Roach to set up these attacks, as any missed hooks can be countered with an uppercut or a straight shot down the middle, something Davis does very well.
Roach also uses shoulder rolls and slips while in mid-range to counter incoming offense, another defensive system that requires reflexes, timing and, believe it or not, feeling. One misguided roll or slip can make Roach another victim of Davis’ freakish power. With Davis’ superb accuracy, excellent positioning against orthodox fighters and a stance that’s second nature to a southpaw, Roach must be perfect with every move he makes. Otherwise, it could be night-night, like it has been for 28 of Davis’ previous 30 opponents.
How the fight can play out
Since both fighters are boxers first, I see this matchup being very technical to start, with each fighter respecting the art of not getting hit. I see the fight action heating up around Round 4 and begin to ooze out around the eighth and ninth rounds.
Both have supreme boxing smarts and understand each other’s strengths and flaws. And although Davis is the bigger puncher, Roach is a sharp puncher, meaning he has excellent timing and placement on his shots. If he connects to the right spot, he could hurt Davis.
Those who have seen any success against Davis usually fight well off their back foot. However, Roach is predominantly flat-footed, moving only when forced out of position. He reaches with straight right hands, which I see Davis countering with heavy artillery. I anticipate Roach slowly gassing out under Davis’ relentless pressure.
After four rounds, Davis will recognize Roach pacing himself, as this is the biggest fight of Roach’s career and only his fifth 12-rounder. Once Roach’s offensive activity diminishes, he’ll start receiving more punches than he can dish out.
Something to look for: Previous opponents have hurt Roach with body shots, forcing him to bite down to win. This fight will be about patience and waiting … until Davis decides to turn up the heat and land his left hand.
Who wins?
Davis can throw every punch in the book and has shown a granite chin over the years. Nine times out of 10, you’ll be another statistic if he can touch you. My guess is “Tank” wins by knockout.
Source: espn.com