Steph Curry out with hamstring strain: Next for Warriors, Wolves
The Golden State Warriors won Game 1 of their second-round series with the Minnesota Timberwolves Tuesday, claiming home-court advantage as the lower seed, but it came at a high cost. After leaving the game with a hamstring injury, star guard Stephen Curry was diagnosed Wednesday with a Grade 1 strain, as reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania.
With the Warriors expecting to play at least the next week without Curry, which would mean missing the next three games at a minimum, they’ll have to find a way to continue Tuesday’s shooting-driven success after Curry left the game to stay in position to win the series.
Let’s break down how Golden State will handle Curry’s absence in Game 2 and how quickly the Warriors might need him to return to reach the conference finals for the first time since winning the 2022 championship with Curry as Finals MVP.
Warriors’ unsustainable shooting edge
Up 10 points when Curry hobbled off not long after making a 3-pointer to give him 13 points in as many minutes on the court, Golden State actually extended the lead to as many as 23 points before holding off a fourth-quarter run by Minnesota.
Without the greatest shooter in NBA history, the Warriors still went 5-of-9 from 3-point range in the pivotal third quarter, with Buddy Hield making three to continue his hot streak dating back to Sunday’s Game 7 win over the Houston Rockets. Draymond Green also did a fair Curry impression, making four 3-pointers — his most in a playoff game since 2017 — with two of them coming just after Curry left the court.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves’ inaccurate shooting carried over from where they finished a five-game series win over the Los Angeles Lakers despite going 7-of-47 from 3-point range in Game 5. Minnesota missed all 15 tries from beyond the arc in the first half and 16 in a row before Naz Reid finally broke the drought early in the third quarter. The Timberwolves finished 5-of-29 (17%) on 3s, their second-worst percentage in a game all season ahead of only Game 5.
That won’t carry over to Game 2. In fact, you might be surprised how little Game 1 shooting percentages from 3-point range tell us about what to expect going forward. Over the past decade, there’s been no relationship between 3-point percentages in the first two games of a series.
Golden State outscored Minnesota by 39 points beyond the arc in Game 1. Even that difference up and the Timberwolves are surely favored going forward without Curry available.
How Golden State can adjust without Steph
Scoring without Curry has been a problem for Golden State dating back to the team’s five consecutive Finals appearances and three titles from 2015 through 2019. Over the course of the regular season, Warriors lineups without Curry ranked in the 11th percentile league-wide in offensive rating according to Cleaning the Glass.
However, the addition of Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline gives Golden State a fighting chance to cobble together a competitive offense. Not only is Butler a better playmaker than any other Warriors option at point guard — where natural wing Brandin Podziemski served as Curry’s backup most of the first half — his ability to get to the free throw line backstops Golden State’s efficiency.
Lineups with Butler but not Curry scored at a league-average rate after the deadline, per Cleaning the Glass, and outscored opponents by an impressive 12.8 points per 100 possessions thanks to 99th-percentile defense.
The biggest challenge for Warriors coach Steve Kerr over the next handful of games might be avoiding running Butler into the ground. After all, he’s also dealing with an injury, having missed Game 3 against Houston in the first round due to a pelvis contusion. Since returning, Butler has averaged 20.4 PPG but is shooting just 42% from the field.
Kerr and the Golden State coaching staff will have to carefully manage when to rest Butler, leaving them without a lead playmaker. The Warriors staggered his minutes with Green in the second half, sitting Butler for the final three minutes and a change of the third quarter. Golden State was a plus-1 in that span.
With regular-season stalwarts Moses Moody and Quinten Post struggling, Curry’s absence also forced Kerr deeper into his rotation on Tuesday. Jonathan Kuminga played 13 minutes, contributing five points, and Pat Spencer was an unlikely source of energy with four points and two steals after playing only the final eight seconds of Game 7 against the Rockets.
Curry’s absence keeps Minnesota favored
Ordinarily, the Warriors taking Game 1 of what looked like a toss-up series on the road would give them the clear edge. Instead, due to Curry’s injury, Minnesota is now bigger favorites at ESPN BET than before the series. Their minus-200 odds translate to an implied 65% chance of winning the series.
Combine Curry’s absence with the tendency for teams that lose Game 1 at home to bounce back in Game 2 and Golden State is favored by 10.5 points on Thursday. I’d expect them to be favorites for Games 3 and 4 in the Bay as well, albeit more narrowly.
Beyond the time Curry will miss, the other issue for the Warriors is how well he performs upon returning. If Curry rushes back, his mobility will likely be compromised to some degree.
As an extreme example, James Harden returned ahead of schedule from what he described as a more severe Grade 2 hamstring strain in Game 1 of the 2021 conference semifinals with the Brooklyn Nets after teammate Kyrie Irving was injured in Game 4 of the series. Badly limited in his mobility, Harden averaged just 14.3 PPG on 31% shooting over the last three games as Brooklyn lost the series in overtime of Game 7.
Reinjury is also a concern with a hamstring strain. Any additional wins Golden State can pick up between now and when he is cleared will make it easier to get him as close to 100% as possible when he does return. Either way, Curry’s injury cast the Warriors’ improbable Game 1 victory in a much different light.
Source: espn.com