NBA West tiers: Stacking all 15 teams after trade deadline
After a league-shaking week leading up to this month’s NBA trade deadline, it’s time to revisit where the Western Conference stands coming out of the All-Star break.
The turbulent trade deadline had the majority of its impact on the Western Conference, where Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers) and Anthony Davis (Dallas Mavericks) changed places on two recent conference finalists, the 2022 champion Golden State Warriors added Jimmy Butler, the San Antonio Spurs added De’Aaron Fox to first-time All-Star Victor Wembanyama and the Sacramento Kings replaced Fox with Zach LaVine.
Yet none of those moves affected the top of my West tiers, updating previous check-ins in November and January. The Oklahoma City Thunder’s historic regular season still has them on top as they’ve opened up an eight-game lead on the rest of the conference. Meanwhile, the 2023 champion Denver Nuggets have surged into position for another deep playoff run.
With the help of ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, let’s revisit the 15 West teams based on what we can expect over the remaining third of the regular season and into the playoffs. Note that within each tier, teams are listed alphabetically.
Jump to a tier:
The clear-cut favorite
One team emerging from the pack?
Playoffs? Play-in? Still TBD
Play-in hopes are fading fast
Preparing for the lottery
Tier 1: The clear-cut favorite
Oklahoma City Thunder
Current record: 44-10 (1st in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 9-3
Tier change: 
The Thunder continue cruising along toward what could be the most dominant regular season in NBA history. Oklahoma City still has a better point differential (plus-12.9 points per game) than any team has ever recorded, though three teams — the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks, plus the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors team that finished a record 73-9 — were ahead of the Thunder’s pace through 54 games.
After the All-Star break, we’ll be monitoring how Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren fit together. The two big men have started three games up front since Holmgren returned Feb. 7, and the early returns are encouraging: a plus-30 margin in 49 minutes of action.
Tier 2: One conference finals contender is gaining ground …
Denver Nuggets
Current record: 36-19 (3rd in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 10-3
Tier change: 
For all the focus on the missing pieces from Denver’s 2023 title team, the Nuggets have gone as Jamal Murray has gone over the past three seasons. Murray’s 55-point effort Tuesday against Portland highlighted how well he has played since a slow start — as has Denver as a team.
In the wake of an eight-game winning streak, the Nuggets now have a better point differential (plus-5.6 points per game) than either of the past two seasons. And Denver is only a half-game back of the Memphis Grizzlies for the second seed and home-court advantage in the first two rounds.
Given the Nuggets’ experience edge over Memphis and Houston and continuity advantage as compared to the two L.A. teams, I think they’ve now elevated into a different half-tier from anyone but the Thunder.
… but these teams are still in the mix
Houston Rockets
Current record: 34-21 (4th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 6-8
Tier change: 
The Rockets slumped their way to the All-Star break, losing seven of their past nine games. Five of those seven losses came without starting point guard Fred VanVleet. In VanVleet’s absence, Houston’s offensive rating has ranked among the NBA’s bottom 10 teams, and the Rockets’ defense hasn’t been good enough to compensate.
The good news is the All-Star break will give VanVleet and forward Jabari Smith Jr. time to rehab without missing games. The bad news is Houston, second in the West at the time VanVleet went down, is now fighting just to maintain home-court advantage in the first round.
LA Clippers
Current record: 31-23 (6th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 7-6
Tier change: 
The Clippers won eight of the first 10 games Kawhi Leonard played this season before experiencing a three-game losing streak in early February, including a 25-point loss to the rival Lakers with Luka Doncic watching from the sidelines. The Clippers bounced back to end the first half on a three-game winning streak, including a resounding 14-point win over the Grizzlies.
In the standings, the Clippers are still closer to the play-in (one game up on the Minnesota Timberwolves) than a top-five seed (two games back of the Lakers). Minnesota also has a better point differential. Still, the potential of a healthy Leonard keeps the Clippers in this tier.
Los Angeles Lakers
Current record: 32-20 (5th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 10-2
Tier change: 
Remarkably, the Lakers put together a five-game winning streak without either Davis or Doncic, then ran it to six in Luka Doncic’s Lakers debut before losing at Utah ahead of the All-Star break. The Lakers are now within a half-game of the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round. The winning streak relied on what’s surely unsustainable shooting at both ends, with the Lakers hitting a league-best 42% of their 3s over those six games and opponents hitting an NBA-low 29.5%.
Still, it bought the Lakers time to get Doncic healthy and integrate him in the lineup without having to worry about losing ground in the standings. We’ll have a better idea of the upside for the Lakers as Doncic plays more games.
Memphis Grizzlies
Current record: 26-18 (2nd in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 9-3
Tier change: 
I wouldn’t blame the Grizzlies and their fans for feeling like they belong alongside the Nuggets. Not only is Memphis still a half-game up in the standings, the team’s plus-7.5 point differential is far better. Despite that, it’s fair to wonder whether the Grizzlies’ success against lesser opponents carries over against the best teams.
Against the other four teams in this tier, Memphis is 3-8, the worst of this group. (Houston is best at 8-1.) The Grizzlies’ depth plays better over the course of the regular season than the playoffs, and they don’t have a premier perimeter defender to throw at the likes of Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard. Memphis still has a realistic chance at the conference finals, but it’s perhaps not as good as the Grizzlies’ record would indicate.
Tier 3: In the playoff mix, but the play-in still looms
Dallas Mavericks
Current record: 30-26 (8th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 7-7
Tier change: 
Injuries to Anthony Davis and starting center Daniel Gafford with Dereck Lively II already sidelined will make it difficult for the Mavericks to climb out of the play-in tournament. Dallas is two games back of the Clippers for the sixth spot and would also have to pass Minnesota to advance directly to the playoffs. We saw Davis lead the Lakers from the play-in to the conference finals in 2023, so it can be done.
Still, the Mavericks’ absences have given them little margin for error and limited the time they’ll have to figure out how Davis fits in the lineup. Additionally, the path to the conference finals no longer looks as clear as when it appeared Oklahoma City and Denver would probably be on the same side of the bracket.
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Golden State Warriors
Current record: 28-27 (10th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 7-7
Tier change: 
The Jimmy Butler era in the Bay started well with three wins in four games as he averaged 21.3 points — just over four points more than with the Miami Heat before the trade. Butler’s ability to get to the foul line has predictably benefited Golden State, which has averaged 27.5 free throw attempts in that span, up from 20.4 in the season’s first 51 games.
The Warriors did miss a golden opportunity to move up in the standings last Wednesday, when they lost 111-107 at Dallas. Golden State can still tie the season series by winning at home Sunday but has more work to catch the Mavericks.
As much as we focus on getting in the top six and avoiding the play-in, finishing in the top eight is also important because it means having to win only a single game to advance and the chance to avoid the top-seeded Thunder.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Current record: 31-25 (7th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 9-5
Tier change: 
When Donte DiVincenzo went down because of a turf toe injury not long after moving into the starting lineup, it looked like a problem for Minnesota’s questionable perimeter depth. Instead, the Timberwolves ran off five straight wins before losing Julius Randle to an adductor strain. Minnesota has stayed afloat 5-4 without both players acquired in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns last October.
In their absence, the Timberwolves have seen Mike Conley return to form after a dreadful start. He’s shooting 47% from 3 since Jan. 17, as compared to 36% beforehand. And young guards Jaylen Clark and Rob Dillingham have improved Minnesota’s second unit. If the Timberwolves can maintain those improvements when DiVincenzo and Randle return, they can make a run at a top-six seed and jump back into the second tier.
Sacramento Kings
Current record: 23-29 (12th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 6-7
Tier change: 
The Kings are 3-3 so far in the Zach LaVine era, though their underlying performance has been less impressive. Sacramento has been outscored by 3.0 points per game against a weak schedule, with half of those six games against the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans handed the Kings an OT loss in their last game before the break. Down the stretch, Sacramento can expect better shooting from LaVine, who’s 12-of-46 (26%) beyond the arc since the trade.
Still, the Kings seem to have the lowest ceiling in this tier. The BPI projections show Sacramento making the playoffs just 28% of the time, and the Kings would be heavy underdogs in any first-round matchup.
Tier 4: Play-in hopes are fading fast
Phoenix Suns
Current record: 26-28 (11th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 5-8
Tier change: 
After they were unable to upgrade their roster the week of the trade deadline, it’s looking increasingly likely the Suns will miss the play-in entirely with the NBA’s highest payroll. Though Phoenix added starting center Nick Richards in January, the team’s only subsequent move sent little-used Jusuf Nurkic to the Charlotte Hornets, cutting the Suns’ tax bill.
During February, Phoenix has gone 1-6, with the team’s only win coming in overtime against the Utah Jazz. The Suns are now 1½ games back of 10th in the West and have the NBA’s second-hardest schedule after the All-Star break, per the BPI. The BPI simulations show Phoenix reaching the play-in just 28% of the time.
Portland Trail Blazers
Current record: 23-32 (13th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 9-4
Tier change: 
An 0-3 road trip before the All-Star break, combined with Deandre Ayton suffering a calf strain, dampened the Blazers’ hopes of getting in the play-in mix. It’s remarkable that Portland even got to that point after being 13-28 a month ago. The Blazers went 10-1 over their next 11 games, a surge led primarily by their young talent. That run suggests Portland could contend for the postseason as soon as next season.
San Antonio Spurs
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 23-29 (12th in the West)
Current record: 4-7
Tier change: 
Adding De’Aaron Fox hasn’t had the immediate impact the Spurs hoped. After winning his debut in Atlanta, San Antonio went 1-3 to close the team’s annual rodeo road trip. Fox has played well, averaging 21.6 points and 7.8 assists, but Wembanyama has been quiet by his All-Star standards with 21.2 points per game over those five games.
Of course, the Fox trade was never about this season. Instead, the Spurs are setting up to compete in 2025-26 and beyond. The development of Wembanyama and Rising Stars MVP Stephon Castle, plus the integration of Fox, is most important over the season’s final two months.
Tier 5: Looking forward to the lottery
New Orleans Pelicans
Current record: 13-42 (15th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 2-10
Tier change: 
After trading Brandon Ingram and seeing two starters (Herb Jones and Dejounte Murray) undergo season-ending surgery, the Pelicans can turn the page on 2024-25. Murray’s Achilles rupture was the worst of the numerous injuries New Orleans has suffered this season because his rehab will surely linger into the first half of the 2025-26 campaign.
Utah Jazz
Current record: 13-41 (14th in the West)
Record since Jan. 20 check-in: 3-11
Tier change: 
The Pelicans, Jazz and Charlotte Hornets all hit the All-Star break with 13 wins. They’re not likely to be passed by the Washington Wizards, a league-worst 9-45, or catch the Toronto Raptors. Toronto has 17 wins and the NBA’s easiest remaining schedule, per the BPI. In all likelihood, that means one of the three teams will have just a 12.5% chance at the No. 1 pick, as compared to 14% for the two others that finish with bottom-three records alongside Washington.
Given what’s at stake with Duke’s Cooper Flagg establishing himself as the top prospect, expect aggressive jockeying for position among these three teams down the stretch.
Source: espn.com