NBA trends – Giannis’ Bucks, star injuries dominate league storylines

As the NBA’s 2024-25 season pushes closer to the one-month mark, a number of things are coming into focus.

The Cleveland Cavaliers, who have reeled off 13 straight wins to begin the campaign, are clearly for real. And despite concerns about the Denver Nuggets after two weeks, Nikola Jokic and the 2023 champs probably still are, too.

But a universal storyline in the league is the sheer number of key players injured, and the one preseason contender feeling it the most.

We’ll tackle that subject, along with a major Milwaukee Bucks‘ issue that even Wednesday’s 59 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo won’t fix, an undersized Indiana Pacers guard thriving in the paint and just how much more space Klay Thompson is enjoying this season with the Dallas Mavericks.

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Major flaw behind Bucks’ 4-8 start
The contender hit hardest by injuries
Klay has been wide open as a Mav
Why a 6-foot-1 guard owns the paint

The porous Bucks have little room for error

Twelve games into the season, the Bucks are behind the eight ball.

Their 4-8 record, 12th in the Eastern Conference, is their worst mark through 12 games since Antetokounmpo’s rookie season in 2013-14. And this is the case despite Antetokounmpo averaging a career-best 33.3 points (on 61.6% shooting), 12.1 boards and 5.5 assists, while fellow star Damian Lillard averages 26.0 points and 6.6 assists.

The star duo scoring nearly 60 points per game magnifies what, aside from injuries, has been the biggest problem for Milwaukee: Between breakdowns on defense and the inability to force turnovers or grab offensive boards, these Bucks have almost no room for error moving forward.

The struggles on the defensive end are apparent most nights, where the Bucks simply look too heavy-footed at times to stop teams from getting where they want.

On Friday, the New York Knicks drove against Bucks center Brook Lopez nine times for a total of 15 points, six of which came from three first-half dunks by Karl-Anthony Towns. On each of them, the 36-year-old Lopez — runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year just two seasons ago — looked as if he was wading through quicksand at the top of the key. That isn’t to say the issues stem primarily from Lopez, who has held shooters 10.3 percentage points lower than their averages at the basket — one of the league’s best rates.

Rather, Lopez and the Bucks are desperately struggling at point of attack defense, both in cutting off driving lanes and in deflecting passes. Milwaukee’s blow-by rate — the percentage of times that opposing players breeze past them off the dribble — is the third highest in the NBA, per Second Spectrum tracking data.

And teams, sensing they own a quickness advantage, have made a point to aggressively target Lillard. The floor general has been forced to guard an average of 11 on-ball screens per game as the screener defender, by far the highest rate of his career and up from such seven plays per game last season. (Only Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young is being forced to guard more on-ball screens each night.) Opposing starting backcourts are lighting up Milwaukee for nearly 40 points a night, the NBA’s fourth-highest mark.

Why does all of it matter so much? Simply put, the once-dominant Bucks aren’t generating enough efficiency advantages to overcome their defense.

Giannis and his teammates are still among the league’s best in transition, but they don’t get to show it often, as they force turnovers at the third-lowest rate in the league. (The Bucks are also the NBA’s only team to rank in the bottom three in offensive rebounding percentage and opponent turnover percentage.)

This hemorrhaging is taking place as the Bucks, who under former coach Mike Budenholzer set a single-game NBA record for most made 3-pointers, no longer enjoy an advantage from deep. As recently as two seasons ago, Milwaukee got up 507 more 3-point attempts than its foes. This season, they’re underwater in that regard.

The 3-point attempts aren’t necessarily the most vital thing. (Even the season the Bucks won it all, their opponents launched more triples than them.) But there are only so many unfavorable data points before they start to spell trouble. And even with a pair of wins this week, Milwaukee appears to have its fair share.

Injuries are adding up (headlined by the unlucky Pels)

Kevin Durant, Chet Holmgren, Tyrese Maxey, Ja Morant and Zion Williamson are among NBA stars who have been sidelined by injury in the past week.

Paolo Banchero, one of three players to notch a 50-point performance so far, was sidelined late last month. So were Desmond Bane, Scottie Barnes, CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray. A handful of franchise players, such as Stephen Curry, Joel Embiid and Paul George, have already returned from early-season ailments. Kawhi Leonard, Khris Middleton, Isaiah Hartenstein and Kristaps Porzingis have yet to play.

It’s undoubtedly a lengthy list for a season that’s just three weeks old; one that so far has seen a 35% increase in games missed over that span when compared to 2023-24, according to Jeff Stotts of InStreetClothes.com.

Which team has ultimately been impacted the most to start 2024-25?

play0:35Shams: Zion to miss ‘several weeks’ with hamstring strain

Shams Charania reports on Zion Williamson’s hamstring strain that will keep him out of action for at least “several weeks.”

While teams like the Philadelphia 76ers and Memphis Grizzlies have relevant cases, it’s hard to point to any team other than the New Orleans Pelicans. Aside from missing Williamson (who’s out indefinitely with another hamstring injury), McCollum (adductor strain) and Murray (left hand fracture suffered in the season opener), All-Defense forward Herb Jones is out, as is backup guard Jose Alvarado. Second-year guard Jordan Hawkins, who had seen his minutes and scoring per game double from last season as a result of the injuries, also is set to miss time with a back injury. Trey Murphy III, one of the NBA’s best 3-and-D wings, made his season debut Monday after suffering a hamstring strain in the preseason.

In the aftermath of adding Murray, this was seen as a potentially enormous season for the Pelicans, in part because they were set to try two lineup tweaks: taking McCollum off the ball and playing Jones at center in hopes of finally having a healthy campaign. But New Orleans finds itself at 3-9 in an unforgiving Western Conference.

The only key member of the team who has been fully healthy is former All-Star Brandon Ingram, a free agent to-be whose name came up in trade rumors all summer but who has played well this year with a depleted supporting cast.

It may never fully come together healthwise for this group. But the Pels will need far better injury luck than they’ve had to make a run in the West.

Klay Thompson hasn’t been this wide-open in years

When Thompson made his return to The Bay on Tuesday as a Maverick — guarded by Stephen Curry, no less — it was an undoubtedly bittersweet and emotional night for the future Hall of Famer. After all, he won four titles with the dynastic franchise and comprised one half of the greatest jump shooting duo in league history.

“A night I’ll never forget,” Thompson said after the back-and-forth affair, which ended with Curry and the Warriors coming out on top 120-117.

All that said, Thompson, who tied a season high with 22 points on 6-for-12 shooting from deep, is already getting more open shots from 3 than he has in years.

Thompson is averaging 6.1 feet of space when he lines up his catch-and-shoot 3s with the Mavs, the biggest cushion he’s had since 2016-17, when Durant joined the Warriors. It represents nearly a foot more space than he saw on shots last season. Put another way: 54% of Thompson’s shots from distance this season have been designated as either open (four feet of space) or wide-open (six feet of space). That’s a huge uptick from last season, when just 42% of Thompson’s 3-point tries were uncontested.

The extra space Thompson enjoys is a promising metric for Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Mavs, who are still getting used to playing alongside the 34-year-old. Opposing defenses will focus on the star guard duo (and on center Dereck Lively II as a roller to finish lobs), which figures to leave great looks outside for Thompson.

Doncic is already tapping into the connection, as he’s assisted 17 Thompson catch-and-shoot 3s, the most in the league between any passer and shooter this season.

There is room for improvement, as Thompson, who in his first 13 seasons never shot worse than 38.5% from deep in a campaign, is knocking down 37.2%.

The paint presence of … undersized guard T.J. McConnell?

It’s well-established that McConnell is a professional pest. Despite standing just 6-foot-1 and going undrafted out of Arizona, McConnell has grinded an impressive 10-year stay in the league; first with the lowly Process-era 76ers and for the past six seasons, the Pacers. McConnell leads the league with 100 steals in the backcourt over the past five-plus seasons, per Second Spectrum. But there’s far more to McConnell than his carefully timed steals off inbound passes.

One thing that has jumped out, in particular: He’s been wildly efficient around the basket. In fact, no one has been better.

McConnell’s 72.7% mark from inside the paint this season is the NBA’s best among players with at least 20 attempts; an incredible feat, given his lack of size. And while McConnell may not end the season in the top spot — no guard or wing has finished No. 1 since Jimmy Butler in 2017-18 — his lofty ranking is no fluke. McConnell finished with the NBA’s third-highest mark in 2019-20 and the fourth best in 2020-21. McConnell’s unpredictability in the paint plays a massive role.

Somewhat similar to Hall of Fame guard Steve Nash, McConnell patiently probes deep into the lane — and, like Nash, sometimes all the way through it — without shooting or passing. In true pest form, McConnell sometimes just flies through, leaving defenders on edge while waiting for something to happen.

According to Second Spectrum, McConnell has dribbled through the paint without shooting or passing an NBA-high 250 times since the 2019-20 season. (Fred VanVleet and Trae Young, tied for second in that span, have only done so 101 times.)

Because of that, McConnell can catch players off guard when he does look for his own shot.

Source: espn.com