NBA trade intel – How three West leaders are prepping for the deadline
Last week, the NBA descended on Paris for a week of events and a pair of games that were essentially a Victor Wembanyama festival. He’d turned 21 just two weeks before, but the NBA was making this a cornerstone of the regular season, a test for how the European market would react to a major NBA event.
All the league’s top executives joined commissioner Adam Silver in Paris as meetings about a new NBA league in Europe accelerated. The league’s media arm was there in full force, aiming not just to document the occasion but to amplify the games to a global audience via all its platforms. And the league touted the draw of the game, noting fans from more than 50 countries bought tickets.
But it was all built around Wembanyama. He knew it and delivered, scoring 31 points with 11 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 blocks in the first game. It was a jackpot performance. There was a reason Wembanyama, feeling the moment, described it as “a top-five game of my life.”
When Silver got home, he had several days of meetings with the league’s influential competition committee and general managers. In these sessions, sources said, Silver trumpeted the week’s success and the strong response from the fans. It was another powerful reminder that the Age of Victor is rapidly approaching the NBA universe.
Wembanyama earned his first All-Star appearance Thursday night when the Western Conference coaches rightfully selected him as a reserve. Then there was news that Sacramento Kings star guard De’Aaron Fox could be on the move via trade — and that his preference is to become Wembanyama’s running-mate in San Antonio — this just days after A.J. Dybantsa, the potential No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft, said he also wanted to join Wembanyama.
So many signs are pointing toward the ascension of Wembanyama, and the Spurs, to the top of the NBA. But for all of the understandable anticipation of that takeover, consider the top of the Western Conference standings.
There are three teams lining up to form a Wembanyama blockade: the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies. All three feature rosters chock full of young talent, draft capital to spend to improve even further and the ability to be patient to search for the right opportunity.
In our weekly trip around The Association, here’s an in-depth look at where all three of those West contenders stand and how they can strengthen their positions at the trade deadline. Plus, we examine the latest steam on trade talks involving both Fox and Jimmy Butler and check in on the suddenly stumbling defending champion Boston Celtics.
Jump to intel:
Deadline moves for the West-leading trio?
Teams entering the Butler sweepstakes?
How De’Aaron Fox and the Kings got here
Three teams stand in the way of the Wemby era
Oklahoma City Thunder
Bontemps: It is another sign of Wembanyama’s massive potential that we aren’t just writing in the Thunder as the West kings for the rest of this decade. There’s every chance they will be, anyway. OKC is already on pace to have the conference’s best record for a second straight season, has a core that ranks among the league’s best while having no one older than 26 and has as many trade assets as any team in the league.
Few, if any, teams have the options the Thunder do — particularly among contending teams, so many of which have already traded most of their draft capital. But, despite the attention on GM Sam Presti’s next move, it’s far from assured that OKC will be active between now and Thursday’s trade deadline.
Windhorst: The Thunder have let it be known from the start of training camp that they are playing for the long term and not seeking to be aggressive in the trade market during the season. There are two reasons to believe this position, beyond their youth: Last season, their significant midyear addition of Gordon Hayward failed, and they’re not looking to repeat it. They have yet to play a game this season with their preferred starting lineup.
“With all their draft picks [15 firsts and 17 seconds between now and 2031] they can do anything, but they benefit if they can convince everyone they plan to do nothing [at the deadline],” one general manager told me. “Every team that wants to deal with them will want them to overpay. Plus, teams who want to make a trade will want to engage them because it would raise the price for everyone else.”
Bontemps: There’s one other thing to consider: the team’s soon-to-be skyrocketing payroll. ESPN’s Bobby Marks projects that, starting in 2026-27, the NBA’s salary cap will be roughly $170 million. For argument’s sake, let’s pencil in Jalen Williams — who joined Wembanyama as a first-time All-Star Thursday night — and Chet Holmgren for max extensions that kick in that summer. Under that cap projection, those extensions would begin with them both making $42.5 million. If the Thunder pick up team options on both Isaiah Hartenstein and Luguentz Dort — two critical contributors to the current roster — that’s another $46.2 million.
That would, as of now, have the Thunder staring at a payroll of roughly $191 million for seven players, basically ensuring Oklahoma City would be in the luxury tax. And that’s before the following season, when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be starting a supermax extension that would begin at a staggering $72 million if current projections hold.
So any deal that happens now, sources told me, would have to be made with an eye toward the future, as the salaries for this burgeoning young core start to get wildly more expensive.
Houston Rockets
Bontemps: It remains to be seen when Houston will push its chips in for a star. What has been seen over the past month is that Amen Thompson truly has the chance to be one.
Just look at these numbers across January, when Thompson, the fourth pick in last year’s draft, has been in the starting lineup after Jabari Smith Jr.’s shoulder injury: 18.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.2 blocks per game, while shooting 56.7% from the floor.
And his final minute in Boston Monday — including a tremendous move to shake Jaylen Brown and sink the winning bucket with less than a second to go — showed why sources have told me Houston believes he has as much upside as any of its young stars.
Windhorst: Rockets GM Rafael Stone has a case for Executive of the Year as picked by his peers, though Presti is likely the favorite to win the honor for the first time. Stone’s draft picks, namely Thompson, are the central reason, but Stone’s decision to hire Ime Udoka as coach in 2023 looks like it might’ve been a franchise-changing choice. Aligning a roster with a coach is one of the hardest things to do in the league, especially in short order, but the Rockets have no doubt made it happen. This team exudes Udoka’s personality, especially at the defensive end.
Bontemps: The Rockets have also consistently taken the position, sources said, that they are going to see this season through before any significant tinkering. That is partially because the franchise wants to first see what its young core — Thompson, Smith, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard and others — can accomplish in the crucible of the playoffs.
Both Green and Sengun signed rookie extensions in the fall that don’t kick in until July. Does that mean one, or either, would be included in deals? No. But it would give Houston maximum flexibility to remake the roster as it chooses. Already well ahead of the most optimistic expectations for this season, the Rockets have every incentive to be patient.
Memphis Grizzlies
Windhorst: Memphis is a little different from OKC and Houston because it’s a more mature contender, though its window remains plenty open. The Grizzlies could end up being a top-two seed for the third time in the past four seasons.
Their core players are a couple of years older, and they’ve already locked them all into long-term deals, meaning the Grizzlies have the most expensive roster of this trio but are not yet at the point of facing apron trouble. They’re in great shape with picks, having all of their firsts plus a couple of swaps. They’ve been significantly more active than the Thunder and Rockets in trade discussions — and it makes sense; they’ve had more playoff battle scars.
Bontemps: One Memphis player to watch over the next week is guard Marcus Smart. League sources told me there has been plenty of discussion about the former Defensive Player of the Year in recent weeks.
With more than 100 playoff games under his belt, Smart could be an interesting option for playoff teams, though he has played only a combined 38 games overall across the past two seasons in Memphis due to a series of injuries and is currently out with an index finger injury on his right (shooting) hand. Smart’s absence has created opportunities for young players such as Rookie of the Year contender Jaylen Wells, GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr.
Memphis would also potentially benefit from opening up salary next summer to both get a contract extension done with Jackson Jr. and re-sign Santi Aldama. That all makes Smart’s situation one to monitor.
Windhorst: One league executive told me he thinks Memphis is ready to move on from Smart:
“I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets moved for less than everyone might’ve thought a few months ago.”
What’s the latest with Jimmy Butler and Miami?
Bontemps: Nothing has fundamentally changed from where this situation has stood for the past several weeks. Butler and the Heat remain at odds, and the likelihood of him being a productive part of their team is remote.
The franchise would like to trade him, and he would obviously like to be traded. And, as of this writing, there isn’t a deal on the table that provides Miami what it is looking for: some combination of players who can help now, young players with potential, draft capital or salary that stretches into the 2026-27 season and isn’t movable later, as the Heat would love to be a factor in that star-laden free agent period.
What remains to be seen is whether that situation will materially change between now and the Feb. 6 trade deadline.
Windhorst: While sources said Miami is willing to take players with future money on their contracts in a trade, making the narrow window for Butler to get his wish and get traded a little wider, that doesn’t include accepting Bradley Beal, sources told me. Beal’s contract has two seasons and more than $110 million after this one, which is still the sticking point of any Miami-Phoenix discussions.
The Suns have been working for weeks now to assemble two-, three-, four- and even five-team concepts that would get them Butler and deliver Miami the kind of return it wants. It’s been one of the most complicated negotiations of the past decade, compounded by all the relationship peculiarities in this one. Beal’s agent, Mark Bartelstein, is the father of Suns CEO Josh Bartelstein, and, on the other side, Heat president Pat Riley and Butler have butted heads for the better part of a year, culminating in a third Butler suspension this week.
“Everything about this negotiation has been too personal,” said an executive from one of the teams that has been involved in the expansive talks. “It was hard enough to find a way, but that aspect has made it harder.”
Bontemps: Phoenix might not be a likely option for a Butler deal, but the Golden State Warriors could be one, sources told me. The Warriors — with their history of pursuing star players, plus their standing at the edge of the play-in mix in the Western Conference — would be an intriguing possibility for Butler’s services, as the combination of him and Stephen Curry could be a formidable one over the course of a seven-game series. And, as the saga between Butler and the Heat has dragged on, Miami’s ask could be low enough to entice Golden State to make a move now, while leaving room for other moves this summer.
With rookie big man Kel’el Ware now seemingly a permanent fixture in Miami’s starting lineup next to Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins could be a fit to slot into the starting small forward spot in Miami currently occupied by Haywood Highsmith as Butler remains indefinitely suspended. And if Miami needs to make moves in the summer of 2026-27, Wiggins’ $30 million salary is a far more palatable thing to consider than, say, Beal’s $57 million salary — particularly when the latter is attached to a noxious no-trade clause.
That has been a nonstarter for the Heat going back two years, before Beal was dealt to Phoenix by the Washington Wizards, sources said — and their position hasn’t changed.
How did we get here with the Kings and De’Aaron Fox?
Windhorst: To quote Hemingway: gradually and then suddenly.
Fox did not sign an extension in the offseason and has been less engaged than usual during the season, sources said. Matters were worse when coach Mike Brown was fired, which put undeserved blame on Fox and only increased the displeasure.
Bontemps: While there’s always a chance Fox could be moved between now and the deadline, variants of the same issues clogging the market for high-salary stars will complicate any talks.
The process of moving a player making Fox’s salary ($34.8 million) is not easy. Fewer teams need a point guard, arguably the league’s deepest position, limiting the number of realistic suitors for Sacramento. And Fox still has more than a year left on his contract, meaning the Kings could easily take this to the summer, when teams will be more willing and able to swing deals for Fox.
Windhorst: Scouts who have recently tracked the Kings have noted Fox’s down numbers even as the Kings have been winning more since Doug Christie took over as coach. Part of this could be attributed to Fox dealing with a sprained thumb, however.
“Bottom line here is the Kings seem to know Fox isn’t going to re-sign with them,” a league executive told me. “That’s clarifying, and now they can be a first mover and do it at a time when they can get the best deal. This is how Utah played things with Donovan Mitchell a few years ago. They got out ahead of it and generated a bidding war.”
Source: espn.com