NBA playoffs betting: How to bet the conference finals
The NBA’s Conference Finals are set, with the Oklahoma City Thunder taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference and the New York Knicks facing the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference.
After a semifinals that saw the likes of Boston, Cleveland, Golden State and Denver go down, what can be expected in these two series? And what are the bets to make?
NBA betting experts Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick and Steve Alexander provide the bets they like most for each series.
Odds are updated as of publication. For latest odds go to ESPN BET
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Favorite bets for the series
Timberwolves +1.5 games (+140). I go into this series feeling that it is at least a toss-up that could go either way, and at most a clear Timberwolves advantage. So I love being able to get the Timberwolves plus 1.5 games for plus money. The Timberwolves had a slow start to the season, seeming to need time to adjust to the blockbuster trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to New York in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. But adjust they did, and they caught fire down the stretch. Since March 1, including the playoffs, the Timberwolves are 25-6, neck-and-neck with the Thunder (28-6) for the best in the league. The two teams have split the season series 2-2 in each of the last two seasons, further emphasizing how evenly matched they are. For the Timberwolves to be getting both games and plus money makes this a strong value play. — Snellings
Series Total games under 5.5 (+115). Many were surprised when the Mavericks blew right through the Timberwolves last season for a berth in the NBA Finals. Minnesota won one game. OK, so the Thunder didn’t exactly roll over the Nuggets, but this is a different matchup. The Thunder can score and certainly will defend Anthony Edwards well. Throw some money at the Thunder doing what Dallas did last season and making this a quick series win. — Karabell
Exact Series Total games: Thunder up 2-1 after three games (+110). Threading the needle here results in plus odds for an exact prediction of the series after three games. Based on exact series odds, the expectation is a 4-1 series favoring the Thunder. Have you heard that story before? It’s because that was the context for the Denver series, as well. This isn’t a slight to an awesome Oklahoma City team, rather the reality that regular season dominance doesn’t always prove congruent with playoff outcomes. I have no expectation of an upset, but I do expect the first games of this series to include a series of adjustments and new looks. — the Timberwolves will take one of the first three games. — McCormick
Exact Series Total 5 games (+220). Minnesota rolled past a Lakers team virtually without anyone playing defense (other than LeBron James) and a Warriors team that lost Stephen Curry. The Thunder have yet to exert their full powers other than a few random games in these playoffs, but I think it all changes against Minnesota. If you want to hit a home run, I like a sweep at +450, but giving the Wolves at least one game is a safer play. We should know if the idea of this being a good matchup for the Wolves is true halfway through Game 1. — Alexander
OKC Thunder 4-2 (+425). The Thunder’s elite defense, anchored by Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso, will challenge the Timberwolves’ scorers on every possession. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the series, and Oklahoma City’s depth — along with its experience from a tough second-round battle with the Denver Nuggets — gives them the edge. Chet Holmgren’s rim protection and hometown motivation could be the X-factor. Thunder in six. — Moody
Favorite prop bets
Julius Randle most total points in the series (+1800). Randle has scored 29 and 31 points in his last two playoff games, respectively, and has scored at least 24 points in each of his last four. The Thunder will likely try to stop Edwards but might be willing to let Randle shoot as much as he wants. If so, the payoff is very enticing at +1800 — and he’s currently on fire. — Alexander
250 or more total points in any game this series (+300). Rooting for scoring is fun. Winning is more fun, thus why unders can prove savvy so often. This said, it feels like at least one game, because that’s all it takes, will turn into an offensive opus. A game that goes to overtime or just has some wide-open, relentless transition that drives the score to pinball levels is all we need. It’s a three-to-one bet for a reason, but it’s also a fun one. — McCormick
Chet Holmgren most total rebounds in the series (+275). Holmgren dominated the glass against the Nuggets in a dynamic that could be similar to this round: Isaiah Hartenstein battles the opponent’s big center (Rudy Gobert/Nikola Jokic), while Holmgren crashes the boards against the opponent’s shorter power forward (Randle/Aaron Gordon). Holmgren averaged 11.7 RPG over the last six games against the Nuggets, and if he maintains a similar pace against the Timberwolves he’d have a legit shot to win this prop at solid plus-money. — Snellings
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Favorite bets for the series
Pacers +1.5 games (-175). The Pacers have been the best team in the Eastern Conference during the playoffs, with an 8-2 record against two strong opponents in the Cavaliers and Bucks, but they were playing excellent basketball for much longer than that. The Pacers were one of four teams in the NBA (Thunder, Celtics, Cavaliers and Pacers) to win more than 70% of their games in calendar year 2025, going 34-14 down the stretch. Their style of play is extremely effective, with a team full of shooters and defenders that can be equally effective playing fast as in the half court. The Knicks won two of three against the Pacers in the regular season and are playing well in the playoffs themselves, but the Pacers are at least co-favorites in my eyes and strong value with the added 1.5 games. — Snellings
Exact Series Total 7 games (+175). This is a classic rivalry with a storied history that sits close to even throughout playoff history. And I just have a feeling that this one will be a series for the ages and will go seven games. In fact, a lot of us will be disappointed if it doesn’t. The Knicks get the edge because of home court, but the Pacers have never been scared of playing at Madison Square Garden. — Alexander
Knicks win series 4-3 (+350). The Knicks hold the edge in physicality, reboundin, and playoff-tested toughness. With Mitchell Robinson healthy and dominating the glass, New York can control possession and create elite second-chance opportunities. Jalen Brunson is the best player in the series, while versatile defenders like Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby are talented enough to disrupt the Pacers’ stars. Though Indiana has ample depth, the Knicks’ offensive talent and defensive prowess give them the advantage. The Knicks’ grit, rebounding and experience should carry them to win a grind-it-out series. — Moody
Exact Series Total 7 games (+175). Let’s take a second to reflect on this angle: the shortest odds in this exact series menu games played is seven. What does this mean? It means no one really knows. At least there is no confidence emitting from both those who set the market and those who bet the market. If there were, we’d see one team have strong odds to finish this in five or six games. If you aren’t old enough to have watched the Pacers-Knicks battles from the mid-to-late 1990s, the hope is that this series replicates even a fraction of indelible moments gained from competition. The Pacers want to sprint. The Knicks want to grind. This could be special. — McCormick
Favorite prop bets
Jalen Brunson to score 40+ points in any game in the series (-110). Brunson needed to score more in the Detroit series to keep the Knicks alive, and he will need to do this again versus Indiana. In fact, it is easy to see how Brunson averages more than 30 PPG in this series. Let’s take the easy way out and assume he tops 40 at least once here. — Karabell
Josh Hart to record the most total rebounds in the series (+700). While I believe Towns will end up winning this, I don’t like the -1000 odds. Hart is the next-best bet at +700, and he might be the best rebounding guard in the league. With averages of 8.7 boards against Detroit and 8.3 against the Celtics, he has a slugger’s chance of out-rebounding KAT for the Knicks. — Alexander
Jalen Brunson to score 50+ points in any game (+725). This guy has 18 career games of at least 40 points and three career games with at least 50 points — all of which have come in a Knicks jersey. The pace. That’s the key. The Knicks will do their best to make this their fight; a half-court grind that reduces variance. The Pacers will do their best to make this a sprint to 150 points. Rarely does a series this deep belong to one fighter. Imagine the Garden when the tens column hits five. There will be a game that is curated by the Pacers, and that game could see Brunson take his scoring to absurd heights that, for him, actually aren’t that preposterous. –McCormick
Karl-Anthony Towns to score the most total points in the series (+600). Towns has been excellent against the Pacers this season. In their three matchups, Towns averaged 30.3 PPG with at least 21 points in each game and a season-high of 40. While Brunson is clearly the leading scorer of the Knicks, he has had more difficulty against the Pacers this season, averaging 22.3 PPG. Brunson is the deserved favorite to lead the series in points, but Towns has a legit chance and a lot more juice at 6-to-1 odds. — Snellings
Source: espn.com