NBA playoffs 2025: League insiders break down Round 1 games
t’s already been an eventful start to the NBA’s postseason.
We’ve seen five of the eight first-round matchups split the first two games, with huge performances from players with extensive playoff experience — including former champions Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard — and from young stars such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cade Cunningham.
It all sets up for an intriguing second weekend of the playoffs — with three games Friday and all eight series in action over Saturday and Sunday — with the potential of some teams getting swept if they don’t grab a win.
With that in mind, here’s a look at where things stand in each first-round series and what to watch as we await which eight teams will advance to the conference semifinals.
Jump to an East series:
Bucks-Pacers: Can anyone help Giannis?
Knicks-Pistons: Expect a long series?
Cavs, Celtics in control: Should they worry?
Jump to a West series:
Nuggets-Clippers: Peak Kawhi is back?
Rockets-Warriors: Butler’s injury the X-factor?
Lakers-Timberwolves: Which star will rise up?
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: A collapse spells doom?
Pacers vs. Bucks: How much more can Giannis do?
No. 4 Indiana leads No. 5 Milwaukee, 2-0
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been sensational through the first two games of this series and his averages back that up: 35 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.5 blocks on 65% shooting. That’s an otherworldly production.
And yet, the Milwaukee Bucks were outscored by 29 points with Antetokounmpo on the floor in 38 minutes so far in this series. And now that the series shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 3 Friday night (8:00pm ET, ESPNU), there’s not a lot of optimism that Milwaukee can find its way back into it.
When asked if Milwaukee has a chance this series, one NBA executive was blunt: “I really don’t … Giannis has been Giannis, and it just still hasn’t been close.”
In the Game 2 loss to the Indiana Pacers, the Bucks couldn’t take advantage of Antetokounmpo’s stellar play nor the 28 points on efficient shooting from Bobby Portis off the bench. Damian Lillard made his emotional return after missing the past month because of a health scare, but it still wasn’t enough for Milwaukee to do anything more than make a late push back into the game after trailing big for most of it.
It’s tough to see how they can either slow down the Pacers enough defensively, or keep up with them enough offensively, to make this series competitive – and especially not with the current lineup iterations in place.
That’s why there was some thought about benching Kyle Kuzma — who has had a rough first couple games, including becoming one of six players in NBA history to play at least 20 minutes in a playoff game and not register a single point, rebound, assist, steal or block – and replacing him with a shooter, either Gary Trent Jr. or AJ Green.
“Keeping Kuzma off the ball isn’t going to work,” said a scout. “Either have him come off the bench and have the ball when Giannis is out and start someone like Green, or don’t play him at all.”
Knicks vs. Pistons: A hard-fought slugfest continues
No. 3 New York leads No. 6 Detroit, 2-1
After two straight second-round exits, the Knicks made a pair of massive moves last offseason — trading several first-round draft picks for Mikal Bridges and swapping out Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo (plus another pick) for Karl-Anthony Towns — to try to break through and at least reach the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2000.
So far in their series against the Detroit Pistons, though, it doesn’t look entirely clear that the Knicks will be getting out of this round.
“I’ve been wondering all season if [the Knicks] are a true second-round team, meaning one that shouldn’t lose in the first round,” one executive said.
That sentiment was expressed while the series was tied at one apiece and before New York had a much more balanced offensive output in Thursday night’s Game 3 victory. It looked like a conscious choice from a Knicks team that didn’t get Towns a single shot in the fourth quarter of a Game 2 loss and was far too reliant on Jalen Brunson to carry a massive offensive load virtually by himself.
“Jalen foul hunting and holding the ball has really caught up with them,” a West scout said. “There’s only so much you can do. That’s a recipe to win a lot of regular-season games, but it’s a huge load to carry on a nightly basis for playoff-heavy minutes when defenses have adjusted and loaded up. KAT and [OG Anunoby] have to play a role, and it’s hard when [Brunson] has the ball in his hands so much of the time.”
It’s also hard when the Pistons have size and length to throw at him — particularly second-year wing Ausar Thompson, who has been effective in defending Brunson despite fouling out in Game 2.
“I don’t even know if Thompson knows what he’s doing yet,” an East scout said with a laugh, “but he’s a gifted kid defensively.”
Anything to worry about for the Cavs or Celtics?
No. 1 Cleveland leads No. 8 Miami, 2-0
No. 2 Boston leads No. 7 Orlando, 2-0
The series involving the East’s top two teams have gone according to expectations.
It’s been an impressive start for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who cruised through the opening three games with ease even while Gilgeous-Alexander got off to a slow start in the series (33.3% shooting against the Memphis Grizzlies through the first two games after finishing the regular season at nearly 52%).
“I’m feeling confident about my OKC over the field pick,” said a West executive.
The only question in the Boston Celtics-Orlando Magic series is the health of Jayson Tatum who missed his first-ever playoff game with a bone bruise in his right (shooting) wrist in Game 2, and appears ready to miss another in Game 3, with him listed as doubtful once again for that contest.
But the Celtics know they can lean on Jaylen Brown — who was dealing his own bone bruise in his knee late in the regular season — after he exploded for 36 points on 12-for-19 shooting to help the Celtics in Game 2.
“Orlando isn’t good enough,” said a scout. “They just need more offense and more shooting.”
And while the Miami Heat have battled in both Games 1 and 2, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ far superior firepower across the board has been too much to overcome. Miami needs all three of their top players to play well to give them a chance but Bam Adebayo was 3-for-9 in Game 2 and Andrew Wiggins wasn’t on the court in the fourth quarter.
Despite a 33-point game in Game 2, Tyler Herro has been picked on relentlessly by the Cavaliers, giving Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Ty Jerome a target to attack repeatedly.
“Cleveland is clearly the better team,” said a scout. “Their depth is impressive, [Evan] Mobley is awesome … their depth will overwhelm Miami. Give the Heat credit, they’ve competed.
“But they don’t have enough firepower. Just too many reluctant shooters.”
Nuggets vs. Clippers: The return of peak Kawhi?
No. 4 LA leads No. 5 Denver, 2-1
From everyone I spoke to over the past several days, there have been two universal sentiments coming out of the Denver Nuggets-LA Clippers series:
Holy cow, what an incredible series to watch, and Kawhi Leonard is still that good.
“Clippers-Nuggets has been every bit as good as we hoped it would be,” an Eastern Conference executive said. “And it’s why people really believe in Kawhi. If the shoe doesn’t drop, he’s really, really good.”
The “shoe” there, of course, is the possibility of Leonard being sidelined with an injury, as he has been so many times during his Clippers tenure — including multiple times in the playoffs. But the version of Leonard that has shown up this season has been right on par with any of the past iterations, including the one who led the Toronto Raptors to the 2019 NBA title, and that makes the Clippers an extremely dangerous team in these playoffs.
Through three games in this series, the Clippers have been the clearly superior team — including their impressive Game 3 takedown of Denver in the first-ever playoff game at the Intuit Dome.
“The longer that series goes, the more it favors Denver,” a scout said, referring to the potential Leonard injury factor. “But those games have been sensational.”
Denver, however, has its own injury issues. The Nuggets aren’t a deep team, dealing with injuries to Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon during the season and now Michael Porter Jr.’s shoulder issue that could impact his availability.
“Denver just looks physically beat up,” the executive said. “They’re a thin team, and they’ve had their best players miss time.”
One thing insiders agree on is that this has been the best matchup in the first weeks of the playoffs and decidedly does not feel like a first-round series.
“Those teams are going to destroy each other to just get out of Round 1,” a West executive- said.
Rockets vs. Warriors: Will Butler’s status decide the series?
No. 2 Houston tied with No. 7 Golden State, 1-1
As this series shifts back to San Francisco for Saturday’s Game 3 after the Houston Rockets evened the series on Wednesday, the focus is on whether Jimmy Butler III will be available for the Golden State Warriors after suffering an pelvic contusion due to his awful-looking fall in the first half of Game 2.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported late Thursday night that Butler has been diagnosed with a deep glute muscle contusion, and that his status for Game 3 is in serious jeopardy.
“I expected Houston to bounce back, and thought they would wipe the floor with [the Warriors] when Jimmy went out,” said a West scout, “But they just don’t score enough. They won’t put up a big lead on anyone.”
This series, as TNT analyst Stan Van Gundy said multiple times during Wednesday’s telecast, feels like something straight out of the 1990s rather than today’s more pace-and-space dominated game. Every inch of the court is a fight for contested space, with physical play at the forefront and Draymond Green jawing with both Dillon Brooks and Fred VanFleet at various times.
Golden State’s Game 1 win showed that if the stars are right — and if Butler doesn’t miss much time — it would seem the Warriors have an extra offensive gear that Houston, with most of the Rockets making their first playoff appearance, can’t match.
“They play hard, and they guard,” said an executive, “but their offense isn’t ready.”
The biggest thing the Warriors have going for them at the moment is a full three days between Games 2 and 3 — potentially giving Butler enough time to get back onto the court and help Golden State maintain homecourt advantage for this series.
Lakers vs. Timberwolves: A star-studded but uncertain series
No. 3 Los Angeles tied with No. 6 Minnesota, 1-1
This series has lived up to its billing of being one of the most compelling ones to study entering the first round. The Minnesota Timberwolves jumped on the Los Angeles Lakers in the first game, and the roles were then reversed in the second, and as a result neither side has shown a lot of separation heading into Game 3 Friday night (9:30pm ET, ESPN).
In particular, the first two games showed all sides of the Timberwolves. In Game 1, Anthony Edwards didn’t shoot the ball well, but he was disciplined — nine assists to one turnover, not forcing it, and helping shepherd Minnesota to a comprehensive victory. In Game 2, Edwards didn’t have a single assist, and the Wolves as a team finished with just 14 (way below their season average of 26.1) as they looked like they were in quicksand for virtually the entire game.
“Minnesota might be the most complete team outside of Oklahoma City in the West,” said an NBA scout, “but they aren’t consistent enough.
“They’re young, athletic, dynamic, have positional versatility … but I struggle with them, and their offense is an issue and it shouldn’t be.”
The Lakers, though, had their own set of issues in the first couple of games. Their defensive effort and intensity was nowhere near where it needed to be in Game 1, although it improved in Game 2. While LeBron James was part of that improvement in Game 2, both he and Austin Reaves haven’t been at the same level they were in the regular season, and the Jaxson Hayes experiment as the team’s starting center has been a struggle.
But the Lakers have had, unquestionably, the best player in the series in Luka Doncic — even if he got a little too caught up in trying to turn Wolves big man Rudy Gobert into a highlight in the second half of Game 2. And as long as Doncic keeps playing the way he did in the first two games, when he’s averaged 34 points and has converted 19 of 20 free throws, the Lakers will like their chances.
“The Lakers have the best player,” said an NBA executive. “If you’re in a series this close, that’s often the deciding factor.”
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: A collapse that likely ends the series
No. 1 OKC leads No. 8 Memphis, 3-0
Through two games, the Oklahoma City Thunder looked like a well-oiled machine. Oklahoma City nearly set an NBA playoff record with its 51-point demolition of the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1, then cruised to another easy win in Game 2.
The expectation, as the series shifted to Memphis for Game 3, was that this one was all but over.
But then came a truly bizarre 48 minutes. The first half was all Memphis, with Scotty Pippen Jr. hitting more 3-pointers by himself (five) than the Thunder hit as a team (four) in the entire first half, helping Memphis claim a 26-point halftime advantage.
But after an ugly fall by Ja Morant late in the first half, Memphis imploded. The Grizzlies scored only 31 points after halftime, while the Thunder completely turned the game around and set an NBA record with a comeback victory that was hard to watch as the Grizzlies completely short-circuited, failing to score a single point over the final 4:51 of the game.
“That’s a crusher,” one executive said.
“I feel for the Grizz,” another said. “That one hurts.”
That fourth quarter put a massive spotlight on Alex Caruso, the defensive ace who came over in the trade for Josh Giddey last summer — a deal where, by the way, the Chicago Bulls managed to not get a single draft pick as part of it.
And all Caruso did in that fourth quarter was grab three steals, a block and five points to help turn the game in Oklahoma City’s favor.
Now, the only question is whether the Grizzlies can push the series back to Oklahoma City for a fifth game. If Memphis isn’t able to do so, that would send the Grizzlies into an offseason full of all sorts of questions about this team’s future after the complete collapse down the stretch, the dismissal of Taylor Jenkins as coach late in the regular season and then the way this series played out.
Source: espn.com