NBA panic meter: 11 teams already worried about playoffs?
The 2024-25 NBA regular season is still less than a month old, but it’s never too early for teams to worry about slow starts.
Sure, coaches and players might not admit they’re panicking per se. But when a team starts losing, it’s hard not to feel a sense of the season slipping away. Take this quote from New Orleans Pelicans star Zion Williamson a few weeks ago:
“It’s a high level of urgency but not in a panic kind of way. It’s more of a focused, coming-together-as-a-team kind of way. …I don’t think it’s a cause for panic. We just need to lock in.”
Williamson was careful to make it clear he and his teammates were not overly concerned — but it certainly sounded like the pressure was creeping in. (Not that it seemed to have much effect as New Orleans won a single game before embarking on another long losing streak after Williamson gave that quote.)
So which NBA teams should be experiencing that sense of (let’s just be honest here) … panic?
Let’s go through all 11 of the teams who had at least a 35% chance to make the playoffs before the season — based on the average of their preseason BPI forecast and their implied probabilities from ESPN BET — and whose playoff odds have dipped since then, classifying them by just how worried they should be now.
Jump to a panic level:
High! | On Edge | Starting to Worry | Remaining Calm
Note: All odds in this story are as of Monday morning, Nov. 18.
High Panic!
New Orleans Pelicans (4-10)
Preseason playoff odds: 55.8%
Current playoff odds: 6.1%
Difference: -49.7%
The Pelicans’ decline has been dramatic this season, as a team that improved from 21st in net rating in 2021-22 to 10th in 2022-23, and sixth last year, is back down to 28th. The simplest explanation for New Orleans’ struggles is injuries: Four of the team’s five leading returning players by 2023-24 minutes — Williamson, Herb Jones, CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy III — have missed at least half of the team’s games so far, and offseason addition (and former All-Star) Dejounte Murray has suited up for one game. A full-strength Pelicans roster would be faring better, without question, but the few well-known players who’ve been in the lineup are also producing below last season’s levels, with Brandon Ingram (-0.4 points/100 possessions), Jose Alvarado (-0.3) and Javonte Green (-0.9) seeing big dips in their Estimated RAPTOR ratings.
What’s next? You need two hands to count the number of Pelicans currently out multiple weeks — a group Alvarado recently joined with a strained hamstring — so it’s going to be a while before we see any healthy version of this team. And if or when that happens, they’ll likely be digging out of a huge hole; even from today, New Orleans would have to play at a 54-win pace per 82 games to even match last year’s 49-33 record, a task that will only get tougher from here.
Milwaukee Bucks (5-9)
Preseason playoff odds: 92.4%
Current playoff odds: 63.8%
Difference: -28.6%
As if Milwaukee’s Doc Rivers Era needed more second-guessing, the Bucks have gotten off to one of the worst 13-game starts in franchise history (4-9) and their playoff odds have dropped nearly 30 percentage points since opening night. In part because they added defensively challenged Damian Lillard as their second star, the Bucks were already used to dealing with an uncharacteristically weak defensive showing last season (ranking 19th at that end despite the presence of former Defensive Player of the Year Giannis Antetokounmpo), and that hasn’t changed much in 2024-25 (they currently rank 15th).
But while last year’s Bucks at least ranked sixth on offense, this year’s version is down to 18th and now rates below league average at both ends of the floor.
What’s next? Add in their many injury problems — both Lillard and Antetokounmpo are struggling to stay healthy, as is Khris Middleton — and Milwaukee would seem to be in major panic mode.
The only saving grace is that the forecast models and betting odds still think the Bucks are in OK playoff shape, with a better than 60% chance to make it despite their poor record. But with trade rumors already starting to swirl around Giannis, Milwaukee can’t afford to mess around much longer before turning things around.
On Edge
Philadelphia 76ers (2-11)
Preseason playoff odds: 95.8%
Current playoff odds: 77.0%
Difference: -18.8%
With Paul George joining Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers were supposed to be a superteam, the likes of which tends to win NBA championships throughout history. But Philadelphia has shown few signs of being that team so far. George has played six games and Embiid only recently made his season debut, between injuries and a suspension for shoving a reporter. Mostly leaning on Maxey — who has since hit the injured list himself — plus struggling Kelly Oubre Jr., a surprisingly good rookie Jared McCain and a bunch of role players, the Sixers rank outside the NBA’s top 20 on both offense and defense, checking in at a shockingly low No. 27 in net rating so far in 2024-25.
What’s next? Somehow, the Sixers’ playoff odds are still over 75%, but they also fall into the camp of teams who can’t keep piling up losses for much longer. Incredibly, the Embiid/Maxey/George Big Three still has yet to play a single minute together in any capacity (including the preseason). If they can sync up and stay healthy for the playoffs, that is still a fearsome trio of stars to contend with. But will it happen? The Sixers should be worried about how bad the Maxey-only version of this team has looked, especially given how much Philadelphia plans on load-managing stars this season.
Dallas Mavericks (7-7)
Preseason playoff odds: 87.3%
Current playoff odds: 71.5%
Difference: -15.8%
Similar to Minnesota — the team Dallas beat in the Western Conference Finals (more on them below) — the belief was that the Mavericks would build on last season’s NBA Finals run and remain a top championship contender in 2024-25. But the Mavs seem to have returned to the maddening inconsistency that has plagued them off and on throughout the Luka-Kyrie partnership: Sometimes they’ll look like that Finals squad, and sometimes they lose to the dreadful Utah Jazz. We’re also still waiting for Luka Doncic to pop off for some truly monster advanced metrics — they’ll come eventually, but he’s scoring at his lowest level per 100 possessions since 2018-19, with a below-average 54.1% True Shooting percentage (TS%).
What’s next? It’s uncanny how much the Mavs resemble the Wolves, to the point that Dallas also ranks a lot higher in net rating (9th, at +3.9) than we’d expect from its pedestrian record. You never want to fall too far behind in the conference and risk flirting with the play-in, and a 16-percentage point loss in playoff odds is concerning, but as long as Dončić and Irving are healthy — yes, Luka’s knee and Kyrie’s shoulder are worth monitoring — Dallas can fix things quickly if some of their close losses even out into wins.
Minnesota Timberwolves (8-6)
Preseason playoff odds: 84.1%
Current playoff odds: 72.9%
Difference: -11.2%
Our most likely next first-time NBA title winner from before the season, the Wolves were supposed to build on last season’s ahead-of-schedule trip to the Western Conference Finals and become even more of a title contender. Instead, they’ve started with a record only slightly above .500 and are currently below 75% to make the first round of the playoffs proper. (BPI thinks there’s a 50% chance they’ll have to go through the play-in tournament.) The big culprit for Minnesota’s slow start has been a defense that dropped from No. 1 to No. 10, dragging the Wolves’ net rating from +6.6 to +2.8, as Rudy Gobert has been less of a rim-protecting force — his block rate is down from 5.5% to 4.2% — and the integration of new power forward Julius Randle at that end has been rocky. (The Wolves’ defense has been a whopping 7.4 points per 100 worse with Randle on the court.)
What’s next? Even though they sit seventh in the West, the Wolves ought to turn things around soon enough.
They still have the NBA’s 11th-best net rating, which includes an improved offense that should be a big asset once they smooth out their defensive hiccups. Making the new players fit perfectly was always going to be a work in progress.
Starting to Worry
Sacramento Kings (8-7)
Preseason playoff odds: 57.2%
Current playoff odds: 49.8%
Difference: -7.5%
The Kings are in a weird version of NBA purgatory, with a winning record but playoff odds that have now dropped below a coin flip. While newcomer DeMar DeRozan continues to age like fine wine, continuing an impressive string of 10 consecutive seasons with an Estimated RAPTOR of +2.5 or better, and most of the Kings’ other stars — including Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox (who scored 60 on Friday against Minnesota and 49 against Utah on Saturday) — are playing well, it might not be enough for them to escape the play-in. Nothing is all that wrong with coach Mike Brown’s team, but they might still be victims of a numbers game (again) in the West.
What’s next? The Kings will have to weather the next patch of games with Malik Monk, Sabonis and DeRozan all sidelined with injuries, which could take a toll on their playoff odds. But one reason for hope is this team’s all-around statistical résumé. Sacramento ranks among the top 10 in net rating, a group from which every single team last season at least made the first round of the playoffs.
Atlanta Hawks (7-8)
Preseason playoff odds: 36.1%
Current playoff odds: 30.1%
Difference: -5.9%
The Hawks just snuck in above our 35% preseason playoff-odds threshold, and they’ve lost less since opening night than some other teams on this list. But for Atlanta, the panic might be more of the existential variety: In their second full season under coach Quin Snyder, nothing has really changed for this team. The Hawks ranked 12th on offense and 27th on defense last season with Trae Young being a major plus on offense — and a major minus on defense — when healthy. This season? They rank 17th on offense and 22nd on defense, with Young having exactly the same strengths and weaknesses. There’s little to suggest Atlanta has any higher ceiling than another play-in exit this time around.
What’s next? The Hawks do have one of the league’s youngest rosters (with an average age of 24.6), so there is potentially room to get better as the season goes on. Jalen Johnson, a 23-year-old who had an impressive +1.6 Estimated RAPTOR a year ago, is +1.0 this season, but he’s been better of late and could improve his season stats further. Likewise, 2024 No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher has, unsurprisingly, struggled to a horrid -4.3 RAPTOR rating, but has shown some scoring aptitude despite a subpar 46.2 TS%.
LA Clippers (8-7)
Preseason playoff odds: 37.5%
Current playoff odds: 32.3%
Difference: -5.2%
If the Clippers had hopes of christening their new arena, the Intuit Dome, with a playoff appearance, those chances remain in the 30-percent range, slightly down from before the season. There are certainly interesting things happening with the Clippers, including Norman Powell’s impressive +2.6 Estimated RAPTOR in the early going and James Harden returning to his high-usage rate roots. This team also ranks ninth in defensive rating after a couple of seasons outside of the top 15. The Clippers aren’t bad, but they are just sort of average. In the West, that still might land a team in the play-in (at best).
What’s next? Obviously, the Clippers’ long-term prospects rest on the health of Kawhi Leonard, who has yet to make his 2024-25 debut and remains out indefinitely with a knee injury.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported in late October that Leonard was expected to return at some point this season, which would provide a huge spark, especially in combination with the Clippers’ strong defensive showing so far. But will it be too little, too late to salvage those playoff chances if and when it happens?
Remaining Calm
Memphis Grizzlies (8-6)
Preseason playoff odds: 67.8%
Current playoff odds: 60.0%
Difference: -7.8%
Unlike Atlanta, Memphis remains more likely to make the playoffs than not, despite a similar loss in postseason probability since preseason. But for a Grizzlies team that had high expectations with Ja Morant returning from injury, an early record mildly above .500 isn’t going to gain Memphis much ground in a crowded West. Still, we’re listing them among the low-panic group because they are so much better than their record indicates. Memphis has the sixth-best net rating of any team so far this season — right in line with the Grizzlies’ pair of No. 4 rankings in 2021-22 and 2022-23 — including the No. 8 offense and No. 4 defense in the league.
What’s next? Despite their decent-but-far-from-certain playoff chances in the BPI and betting odds, it’s hard not to still be bullish on the Grizzlies. In addition to their elite underlying numbers, the team is 5-3 when Morant plays, and this is without Morant even performing at the level he did before suspension and injury cost him the better part of a season and a half.
Denver Nuggets (7-5)
Preseason playoff odds: 83.5%
Current playoff odds: 76.9%
Difference: -6.5%
Some things about Denver’s season are pretty standard, such as Nikola Jokic being one of the league’s top statistical performers. But in other ways, the Nuggets look a bit less sharp than usual — even if it’s not quite grounds for panic yet. Take, for instance, Denver’s defense, which rose to eighth in the league last season; now that ranking is down to 18th, which would be the Nuggets’ worst showing since Jokić’s third NBA season (2017-18). And their overall ranking of 13th in net rating would also be the franchise’s lowest since ’17-18. After two straight seasons of qualifying comfortably with a top-2 seed, the Nuggets (at No. 6 in the West) would barely avoid the play-in tournament if the season ended today.
What’s next? Aaron Gordon’s calf injury is worth keeping an eye on, as he is perennially one of Jokić’s best supporting teammates. But a bigger factor in the trajectory of Denver’s playoff odds might be the team’s lack of depth. As has been the case with many of his teams since leaving Oklahoma City, the Nuggets are a lot worse (-26.4 points per 100) with Russell Westbrook on the court versus off, but that’s just part of the larger issue whereby Denver has the league’s worst bench by net rating. The more the Nuggets have to rely on players aside from their core stars, and the worse those players perform, the more the panic level will rise.
Indiana Pacers (6-8)
Preseason playoff odds: 76.4%
Current playoff odds: 73.0%
Difference: -3.4%
Let’s be honest: Things could be going better for the Pacers. The team got blown out by the Charlotte Hornets earlier this month — never a good thing — and they were one of the few teams who fell to the Maxey-led Sixers. Tyrese Haliburton is off to a slower start than expected (+0.6 Estimated RAPTOR) after concerns about his full return to health over the summer. Playoff mainstays Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard are out with injuries. Myles Turner is on pace to generate -1.4 Wins Above Replacement this season. And yet, Indiana still checks in with greater than a 70% shot at the postseason, only slightly down from the Pacers’ preseason forecast.
What’s next? If nearly everything can go wrong for the Pacers and they still have very solid playoff odds, that’s an encouraging sign for coach Rick Carlisle’s squad. Surely Haliburton’s eventual TS% will more resemble last year’s 60.5% mark than this year’s 51.8%, and surely a full season of Pascal Siakam — who is playing great, averaging 20.2 points per game on a 65.9 TS% — will yield a better offensive ranking than 13th by season’s end. The main source of concern for the Pacers might be that they rank 23rd on defense, essentially identical to last season’s showing in an area where they needed to improve to reach the next level.
Source: espn.com