NBA free agency intel – Wolves moves, centers and LeBron’s option
There are 93 days between now and the start of free agency on June 30. In the NBA, that is an eternity — particularly when that time period encompasses the end of the regular season in April, the NBA draft lottery in May and the entire run through the playoffs.
But just because so much is left unsettled between now and this summer doesn’t mean teams aren’t preparing for it. On the contrary: Most, if not all, the focus of NBA front offices over the next few weeks will be split between getting final looks at the college prospects participating in March Madness and beginning preparations for free agency and trade season.
And while the league likely won’t see a flurry of superstar moves, plenty of interesting questions will be answered. We’ll delve into them here in our weekly look at The Association, including a deep dive into the intriguing offseason center market, what could happen this summer with the Minnesota Timberwolves and some of the more complex decisions among this year’s restricted free agent class.
Jump to a section:
Watch Minnesota’s moves this summer
Key player options, including LeBron’s
Centers are in the offseason spotlight
2025 restricted FAs have ‘no leverage’
What’s happening in Minnesota this summer?
Bontemps: It might seem odd to start with a team sitting above the second luxury tax apron, but the Timberwolves — despite having no salary cap space — will be one of the more intriguing storylines to monitor this summer. That’s because the Timberwolves potentially have three of the best unrestricted free agents: guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker, center Naz Reid and forward Julius Randle.
Alexander-Walker, who has been on one of the best bargain contracts in the NBA the past couple of seasons, will definitely hit the open market, while both Reid and Randle have player options to manage. All three will create some interesting decisions for Minnesota, and for different reasons.
Windhorst: Six weeks ago, Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez won their arbitration case against current Wolves owner Glen Taylor in their dispute over the sale of a controlling interest in the team. As part of their case, Lore and Rodriguez said they had $950 million ready in an escrow account to complete the sale quickly. And since? Crickets.
This week’s NBA board of governors meeting came and went without a vote on the sale, the last step in the process. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said Taylor is still considering his options, including potentially appealing the arbitration case as well as continuing to speak to Lore and Rodriguez.
This is important because the Wolves have about $145 million in salary on the books next season before re-signing any of their key free agents. There are some combinations where they could fit Alexander-Walker, Reid and Randle back in below the projected $207 million second apron, but there’s no clarity on how deep whoever owns the team is willing to go. Over the past 21 years, the Wolves have paid a total of $1.5 million in luxury tax. This season the owners are paying $93 million! (As you can imagine, that means the team is expected to finish heavily in the red. The Wolves, by the way, are currently in the play-in tournament zone.)
Minnesota has another potential free agent: team president Tim Connelly. A highly respected executive, Connelly was poached from the Denver Nuggets on a five-year, $40 million contract three years ago. But with ownership uncertain, he negotiated a no-strings-attached out in his contract after last season. When Taylor and Lore went to court, sources told ESPN, Connelly agreed to an amendment in his deal to push the opt-out to this summer. Team sources also said that Lore has made it a priority to extend Connelly with a new deal once he gets full control of the team. Lore doesn’t have the team yet, and Connelly is still holding the opt-out.
Bontemps: For all the palace intrigue surrounding the ownership and front office situations in Minnesota, those questions won’t put a pause on the decision-making processes involving Alexander-Walker, Reid and Randle.
Alexander-Walker, cousin of Oklahoma City Thunder guard and MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is set to cash in as he enters his prime years (he turns 27 in September). A former first-round pick that has resuscitated his career in Minnesota, Alexander-Walker has shot at least 39% each of the past two seasons for the Timberwolves while providing quality defense, which is why multiple scouts and executives think he could command a contract for the full midlevel this summer (roughly four years and $60 million), be it from Minnesota or elsewhere.
The general belief from sources around the league on both Reid and Randle is that they’ll be back in Minnesota next season, though what form that takes is unclear. Both could potentially opt into their contracts and extend (Reid has a $15 million player option, while Randle’s is $29 million) or opt out and sign new deals.
What about other major player options?
Windhorst: There are three, all belonging to veteran future Hall of Famers: LeBron James, James Harden and Kyrie Irving.
Let’s start with James. He could simply opt into his $53 million for next year, or he could sign another one-year max deal with a player option to keep his year-to-year flexibility as he moves into his 40s. But recall last summer, when James told the Lakers front office that he might be willing to take less money to help the team add to its roster. As it turned out, the Lakers couldn’t close any deals with their targets and James took his full payday. Would James be willing to reexamine that offer now that Luka Doncic has been added to the team? Perhaps.
If James opts into the deal or re-signs at similar money, the Lakers would dip about $1 million into the luxury tax and have their $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception. If he takes a discount, the Lakers may have the ability to use their full midlevel exception of about $14 million. Any flexibility James might consider could give the Lakers extra breathing space below the second apron and open up possibilities. They have more than $60 million in potential expiring contracts and still have a few draft assets, including the 2031 first-round pick and a 2030 pick swap they originally sent to the Charlotte Hornets in the rescinded deal for center Mark Williams. Those could be combined for a significant trade this summer.
play0:42Kyrie Irving discusses season-ending ACL tear
Kyrie Irving reflects on his ACL injury and road to recovery on TikTok.
Bontemps: There’s a similar discussion to be had with Irving, who has a player option with the Dallas Mavericks for $42.9 million for next season. While Irving is expected to miss at least a large chunk of next season after tearing his ACL last month, the statement general manager Nico Harrison put out in the wake of the injury signaled to the rest of the league, and to Irving, that the guard will be in a Mavericks uniform for next season and beyond.
The question will be what that new deal looks like, as Dallas has to navigate the aprons and fill the shot-creating void. If Irving just picks up his option for next season, the Mavericks are already going to be a luxury tax team with 11 players under contract. Among them, there isn’t a single proven ball handler and creator good enough to shoulder the load while Irving is sidelined.
Windhorst: In the fall of 2021, Harden passed on a three-year, $160 million contract extension with the Brooklyn Nets, and he’s been chasing it ever since. Harden has subsequently taken two pay cuts, $11 million in Philadelphia in 2022 and a more modest one from last season to this year with the LA Clippers on short-term deals. The circumstances around those situations could fill a book but none of that is important now.
Last year, Harden bet on himself as part of a two-year, $70 million deal, banking on playing well and opting out of the second year. Well, he has, making the All-Star team for the first time in three years, and he likely will use that opt-out and get himself a raise. The Clippers have made a series of decisions aiming at potentially protecting cap space for 2026 and giving Harden, who will turn 36 this summer, a new multiyear contract that might require a new plan. But with Norman Powell, who is having a career-best season at age 31, having only one year left on his contract, the Clippers may have to do some fresh spending anyway.
What about the rest of the free agent centers?
Bontemps: Between Naz Reid, Brook Lopez and Myles Turner, the most interesting position in free agency this summer — excluding players like Irving, Harden and James that no one expects to change teams — is at center. We got into Reid’s situation above, but both Milwaukee and Indiana find themselves in cash crunches that will complicate the Lopez and Turner situations.
For the Bucks, if Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton and Kevin Porter Jr. all opt into their player options for next season, Milwaukee will have over $155 million committed to six players — putting the Bucks just $32 million below the luxury tax with the rest of the roster to fill out. That doesn’t leave a lot of room to retain Lopez if the team hopes to stay under the tax. Indiana finds itself in a similar situation with Turner.
Windhorst: Team sources told me the Pacers absolutely want to keep Turner, who is closing in on his 700th game for the franchise. But Indiana has to manage a cash crunch. They are currently projected to be about $22 million below next season’s luxury tax without Turner, and he’ll probably be looking for a significant raise on his current $19.9 million salary. The Pacers haven’t paid the luxury tax since 2005, and there are no plans to go into it next season, sources said. Keeping Turner is going to require some negotiating and some maneuvering.
Bontemps: On the flip side of the negotiations for Lopez and Turner, however, is the depressed center market around the league. There are only a couple of teams with significant cap space this summer, and none of them is going to be targeting a big-money, veteran center.
So for both Lopez and Turner, their only real leverage in negotiations could be to take the full midlevel with another team. But that would be a pay cut for both players. As a result, how hard of a bargain will Indiana and Milwaukee drive for their big men? As the salary structure around the league gets more restrictive as the new collective bargaining agreement fully comes online, these are the types of negotiations that could be a lot thornier than they have been in the past.
What about the restricted free agents?
Windhorst: It’s a bad year to be a restricted free agent.
“There’s only one team that has a lot of cap space [Brooklyn] and they may want to do a slower rebuild and aren’t looking to spend it all now,” one veteran agent said. “I’ve never seen a free agency where only one team has real cap space in my career. These free agents are f—ed.”
The Nets are expected to have between $45 million and $60 million in space. They could have more if they let some players go, but they may not want more. Last summer the Nets reacquired rights to their 2025 and 2026 first-rounders, signaling they remained focused on rebuilding through next year.
“They’ve sent the message that if they do anything major with their space, it’s likely going to be through trade, not signings,” a rival executive said. “Even if that trade doesn’t happen this summer, they’ll want to keep their options open.”
Without the fear of a team like Brooklyn putting down a large offer sheet, restricted free agents such as Josh Giddey of the Chicago Bulls, Jonathan Kuminga of the Golden State Warriors and Santi Aldama of the Memphis Grizzlies have limited leverage. That also includes current Nets star Cam Thomas.
“Actually it’s no leverage,” a prominent agent said. “I’ve prepared my clients for a free agent recession this summer. Next year will be different, the cap will be going up and teams will clean up their books as they deal with the new spending rules. So you may have to wait and try again.”
Bontemps: Of these players, Kuminga is the most compelling. His name came up in trade discussions for Kevin Durant back before the trade deadline, but Warriors owner Joe Lacob has been a long and well-documented supporter of the 22-year-old versatile wing.
Golden State owes Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green a combined $139.6 million, and it’s unclear whether Kuminga is a clean fit in a starting five alongside Butler and Green, with all three forwards below average from the perimeter. That could make it complicated to give him the kind of big-money offer he’ll certainly be looking for in free agency after both sides failed to come to an agreement on an extension before the season.
Windhorst: Giddey’s will be an interesting scenario to watch. His role has been boosted since the Bulls traded Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball went down with a wrist injury. Since Feb. 1, Giddey is averaging 20.9 points on 51.1% shooting plus 8.9 rebounds and 7.7 assists, including his halfcourt buzzer beater to take down the Lakers Thursday night. Before that, he was playing six fewer minutes a game and scoring just 11.5 points, as his role was different. What’s hurting Giddey, other than the lack of available cap space, is that the Bulls signed restricted free agent Patrick Williams to a five-year, $90 million contract last summer and he responded by having the worst year of his career. The Bulls didn’t play hardball with Williams, who agreed to the deal on the first day of free agency, and Giddey might have to cope with that fallout.
ESPN’s Bobby Marks contributed to this report.
Source: espn.com