Betting the 2025 NBA playoffs: Futures bets to make, best longshots
The 2024-25 NBA playoffs begin Tuesday with the play-in tournament, and the first round starts on Saturday, with the winners of each best-of-seven series advancing to the conference semifinals.
So what are the bets to make before the playoffs get rolling? And what teams stand out as potentially undervalued and overlooked?
Here are NBA betting experts Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick and Steve Alexander with the bets and teams they have their eyes on.
If you made only one bet prior to the playoffs starting, what would it be?
Oklahoma City Thunder to win the NBA Championship (+170): I predicted the Thunder would win it all before the season started and nothing I saw over the last five months has changed my mind. They’re young. They’re talented. They’re healthy. And they’re as deep as any team playing in the postseason. They’ve been working up to this challenge for the last five years and the future is now. OKC’s second unit is as good as half the league’s starters. — Alexander
Los Angeles Lakers to win the NBA Championship (+1400): When everyone is locked in, especially LeBron James and Luka Doncic, the Lakers are a tough team to beat. Los Angeles has the fourth-best odds to win the championship, and considering the playoff track record of both stars, I’m backing them. — Moody
Donovan Mitchell to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP (+275): The Cavaliers are, in my opinion, at least co-favorites with the Celtics to win the conference. And the argument can be made that they should be favorites by themselves with the news that Jaylen Brown is dealing with a knee injury and Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t played more than four consecutive games since the beginning of February. If the Cavs win the Eastern Conference Finals, it would be because Mitchell led the way … particularly against the Celtics. In his last 10 games against the Celtics, Mitchell has averaged 33.7 PPG on 49.0 FG% and 40.9 3P%. — Snellings
California is the NBA Championship Winning State (+1000): This is a unique angle and a fun play put together by oddsmakers. The premise here is that I was wholly impressed with the finish by all three of these California contenders. The Clippers’ finish to the season revealed Kawhi Leonard‘s patience with his body appears to have paid off, while James Harden is legitimately involved in third-team All-NBA discussions. The Warriors somehow look entirely dangerous again, even as they face a play-in scenario. The Lakers meanwhile, suddenly have gobs of creation in both transition and the half-court. The Lakers alone have title odds of +1400 and the Warriors have the third-shortest conference title odds, so this fun bet creates more paths to payoff. — McCormick
Boston Celtics to win the NBA championship (+180): Sure, the Cavaliers had the better regular season, but there is a good reason why the Celtics have consistently boasted better odds for the playoffs. They’ve done it before, and until the Celtics get knocked off, even at low odds, betting the Celtics seems wise. — Karabell
What’s your favorite long-shot bet?
Los Angeles Lakers to win the NBA championship (+1400): This one is enticing to me. Any team featuring LeBron and Luka cannot be taken lightly, and while they lost the defense of Anthony Davis, they have two of the best “quarterbacks” in the league. Austin Reaves has taken his game to another level, and Jaxson Hayes, Rui Hachimura and Dorian Finney-Smith can help keep things real inside. The Lakers aren’t deep enough to win it all on paper, but Doncic and LeBron have karma working on their side. — Alexander
Cleveland Cavaliers to win the NBA championship (+600): All of my darkhorse championship favorites are in the West, but there are just too many to bet on any one in particular. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are one of only two teams in the East with a legit chance to win, and the only of the two that would qualify as a long-shot bet. The Cavaliers are a 64-win team with a +9.5 PPG average scoring margin, marks that correlate with teams capable of winning a championship. And the other power in the East, the Celtics, have injury issues to some of their best players. At 6-1 odds, the Cavs are a longshot fully capable of winning the championship. — Snellings
Lakers to make the NBA Finals (+600): I would like to state that I am not partial to the Lakers. This said, I honestly see contending potential in a team that has this level of playmaking. The defense will have to align in ways that only Voltron could hope, but the recipe for finding buckets in tight games is absolutely present amid what is a difficult Western field to read past the young Thunder. — McCormick
Denver Nuggets to win the NBA championship (+3000): Bottom line, the Nuggets have Nikola Jokic firing off nightly triple-doubles, so not sure it matters who calls the timeouts and the inbound plays. This is an experienced roster, and the odd, late firing of the head coach only serves to motivate the players. Don’t be surprised if Jokic carries them all the way. — Karabell
Out of the three big favorites to win the championship — OKC, Boston and Cleveland — which is the best one to bet on?
Cleveland Cavaliers: The road to the NBA Finals isn’t as daunting in the Eastern Conference, and this Cleveland team finished the regular season ranked first in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating. Donovan Mitchell is also expected to be ready for the Cavaliers’ playoff run, despite missing the last four games of the regular season with a sprained ankle. Cleveland has adequate depth and shoots the ball well, has All-Star guards and elite, defensive-minded bigs in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. — Moody
Cavaliers: But only because of the odds. I still think a Thunder-Celtics Finals is pending, but it is hard to win big money with the favorites. To answer the direct question, of the Big 3, the Cavaliers are the team to bet on. — Karabell
Oklahoma City Thunder: We haven’t seen a team with this level of offensive and defensive balance since the prime San Antonio Spurs. Yes, the Warriors’ dynasty often sustained elite defensive ratings, but also relied on a unique undersized demon named to handle multiple roles. The Thunder team doesn’t apply dominant defense based on a singular force, but rather a collective of length, athleticism, youth, toughness, and did we mention length or youth? I just find that teams that sustain the level of dominance the Thunder have when at full power often find a way to finish the job. The Celtics and Cavaliers are great teams, yet I believe this Thunder group is about to set an entirely new benchmark in the league. — McCormick
Which team do you think is undervalued heading into the playoffs?
New York Knicks: New York is an afterthought in the East behind the Cavaliers and Celtics, and it makes sense considering the Knicks are 0-8 against both teams this season. But with Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and other talent around them, this team has the potential to beat anyone in a playoff series. The Knicks have the third-best odds to win the East at +1000. The last two No. 3 seeds to reach the Finals, the Warriors in 2022 and the Bucks in 2021, both won the championship. — Moody
LA Clippers: The Clippers have quietly played well all season while putting a bunch of All-Stars on the court at one time. Kawhi Leonard has had a dream (and healthy) season, Norman Powell has come into his own, Harden is rolling, Ivica Zubac is an under-the-radar talent and Kris Dunn is a defensive specialist. Derrick Jones Jr. helps firm things up off the bench and the Clippers could be a Cinderella story if Harden shows up for the playoffs for once. — Alexander
Milwaukee Bucks: Perhaps Giannis Antetokounmpo and pals are out in the first round. That would not be a surprise. Or perhaps Damian Lillard returns in Round 1 and the Bucks make a run, then knock off the top East teams. Would that be surprising? The odds say so, but man, those are fat odds to bet on. — Karabell
If you had to bet on a Finals MVP right now, who are you betting on?
Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers (+2800): A lot of eyes are on the Thunder, Celtics, and Cavaliers and their respective superstars as Finals MVP candidates. But seeing these odds on a player like Doncic, who carried the Mavericks to the Finals last year, is too good to pass up. If the Lakers go all the way, Doncic will be a major reason why. He’s averaged 30.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game in his playoff career. — Moody
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (+175): While Jokic has had an incredible season, becoming the first center to ever average a triple-double, Gilgeous-Alexander should win the regular-season MVP based on OKC’s league-best 68-win season and his ridiculous stat lines. The Finals MVP should come from the team who wins it all, and since I feel fairly confident that the Thunder are going to be hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy, he’s the only player on the Thunder capable of winning the MVP award. — Alexander
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+1600): Brown didn’t just earn NBA Finals MVP honors last season, as he also took the award in the Eastern Finals. Perhaps the odds are a bit muted due to a knee injury, but most players are probably dealing with something. These Celtics have already done it. Brown has already done it. Let’s not overthink things. — Karabell
Are there any other bets you like?
Houston Rockets to win the championship (+8000): If I had a spare $100 to throw on a sleeper, I’d put it on the Rockets — the No. 2 seed in the West — to win it all (or the West: +2500). They’re young and seem to be where the Thunder were a season or two ago. Ime Udoka is a great coach, they have outstanding young players like Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith, and the veteran Fred VanVleet, who will have to step up his game for the playoffs. They play defense, can score on anyone and are well-coached, and the odds make them a very enticing play as a sleeper play. — Alexander
California is the NBA Championship Winning State (+1000): This bet caught my attention because the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, and Kings are all in the postseason. The Lakers are the most legitimate contenders in this group, but the postseason is full of surprises. The Warriors, like the Lakers, have championship pedigree. — Moody
Source: espn.com