2024-25 NBA season preview – Rankings, predictions, odds, more
For many years, amid fan festivals, T-shirt giveaways and light-up bracelets that spice up opening nights across the NBA, there has been an open secret that hangs over tipoffs each season.
Almost none of these teams celebrating fall renewals will have a chance to win by spring.
In a “good year” throughout the 2000s and 2010s, maybe five teams per season could truly look themselves in the mirror at the season’s start and believe they could hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June. Don’t even ask about the 1980s and ’90s, when the league was basically dominated by five teams over 20 years.
It was good for business in many respects, but from 1999 to 2007, Tim Duncan or Shaquille O’Neal was in the Finals in eight out of nine years. From 2007 to 2020, either LeBron James or Kobe Bryant was in the Finals in 12 of the 13 years (sadly, never against each other). You might recall the Golden State Warriors, who played in six Finals (2015-22), and the Cleveland Cavaliers played in the Finals four consecutive years from 2015 to 2018.
Which brings us to today. Parity has swept through the NBA like a breath of fresh air. This season, an exponential number of teams will begin the season believing they can win compared with a decade ago. And with good reason.
It’s true that the legacy Boston Celtics are the reigning champions, about to hang banner No. 18 and collect their rings on opening night, but last June they became the sixth different team in a row to celebrate under the confetti.
Eight teams start the season with championship odds of 13-1 or better, according to ESPN BET. Before the 2017-18 season, which as it turned out proved to be the end of the dynasty era, there were only two teams with those odds.
In this six-year span of change, some legacy teams indeed won — the Warriors, Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers — but there were glorious and unique championship parades in Milwaukee, Toronto and Denver, too.
There are a few major storylines to follow this season. The new-look Philadelphia 76ers being the newest quasi-superteam, assuming they can all get on the court together. The continued rise of the Oklahoma City Thunder, fueled by the addition of some high-class role players. The ascension of Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. The challenge of past champions, the Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets, to regain momentum with franchise players in their primes. And, of course, LeBron and Bronny James on the Lakers.
But maybe the most relevant storyline is that this collective group believes it can hold back the Celtics.
The 2024-25 NBA regular season opens with the New York Knicks taking on the Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET) and the Timberwolves facing the Lakers (10 p.m. ET) on Tuesday. But before we jump, let’s preview all 30 teams, where they stand and what to expect ahead of the NBA’s 79th season.
— Brian Windhorst
Note: Team rankings are based on where members of our panel (ESPN’s Kendra Andrews, Tim Bontemps, Jamal Collier, Michael Wright, Tim MacMahon, Dave McMenamin, Ohm Youngmisuk, Chris Herring and Kevin Pelton) think teams belong heading into this season.
ESPN
Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTAH | WAS
1. Boston Celtics
BPI’s overall ranking: 2
Chances to make playoffs: >99.9%
Projected wins: 56.0
When we last saw them: After years of coming close, the Celtics finally claimed banner No. 18 with a dominant run through the playoffs, capped by a five-game defeat of the Dallas Mavericks. The 2023 offseason acquisitions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis transformed Boston into a juggernaut that won a league-leading 64 games with a 16-3 mark in the playoffs. Boston’s summer was spent keeping the team intact. Extensions were given to Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Sam Hauser, after Holiday got his own in April. The biggest news of Boston’s offseason was the Grousbeck family putting its controlling stake in the team up for sale. The decision has left the short-term future of the team — set to cost more than $500 million in combined payroll and luxury taxes for the 2025-26 season — up in the air.
Biggest strength and weakness: Boston has plenty of strengths, but its 3-point shooting is near the top of the list. The Celtics averaged more than 50 attempts per game in their opening preseason games in Abu Dhabi, and it won’t be a shock to see them set the NBA record for makes and attempts this season. There aren’t many obvious weaknesses, but center health stands out. Al Horford is in his age-38 season and Porzingis is already out until at least December because of offseason surgery. The Celtics probably will need both players to repeat as champs. — Tim Bontemps
Celtics in NBA Rank:
Jayson Tatum (5)
Jaylen Brown (14)
Jrue Holiday (36)
Derrick White (39)
Kristaps Porzingis (46)
Al Horford (96)
Number to watch: Scoring and clutch net efficiency
The Celtics outscored opponents by 10.7 points per game last season — the fifth-best differential in NBA history. They also went 6-0 in clutch-time games with a plus-46.9 net efficiency — the first team to do so in a single postseason since play-by-play was first tracked in 1997.
Best bet: Celtics win division (-145)
The Celtics were the dominant team in the NBA last season, winning the East by a whopping 14 games in the regular season before going through the playoffs with a 16-3 record. Despite teams such as the Knicks and 76ers making great offseason moves, the gap between the Celtics and those teams was so large that Boston should still be a huge favorite to win the Atlantic Division. Those moves by competitors got the odds to move to almost even money, making the Celtics excellent value here. — Andre Snellings
Fantasy: Do draft … Derrick White
I doubt many fantasy managers realize White finished 36th in ESPN fantasy points, and he was 24th on the Player Rater. He is a prime example of how fantasy points can evolve from stats other than traditional scoring, including assists, 3-pointers and blocked shots. Incidentally, White outscored his far more famous teammate Jaylen Brown last season. — Eric Karabell
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
BPI’s overall ranking: 1
Chances to make playoffs: 97.3%
Projected wins: 51.2
When we last saw them: The Thunder’s “breakfast” season — borrowing from general manager Sam Presti’s analogy to indicate how early the organization was in the building process — ended up being a breakout campaign. After a three-year playoff hiatus, Oklahoma City became the youngest No. 1 seed in NBA history and advanced to the Western Conference semifinals, giving the Thunder reason to believe the foundation of a long-term contender is already in place with MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the last two Rookie of the Year runners-up, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. OKC also added two high-caliber role players in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein — without dipping into OKC’s stockpile of first-round draft capital — during the offseason to enhance the West’s most well-rounded roster.
Biggest strength and weakness: It’s hard to find a weakness on this roster. Presti addressed the Thunder’s glaring flaw (28th last season in rebounding rate) by adding Hartenstein. The former Knick will sit out at least the first month of the season, but reigning Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault will soon have the option of playing two skilled 7-footers together in a jumbo-sized lineup that assures OKC will almost always have a rim-protector on the court. Presti flipped the one starter who was a questionable fit, guard Josh Giddey, for an elite glue guy with championship experience in Caruso. The Thunder joined the Celtics as the only teams to rank among the top five in offensive and defensive ratings last season, and Oklahoma City could be even better on both ends of the court. — Tim MacMahon
Thunder in NBA Rank:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4)
Chet Holmgren (32)
Jalen Williams (44)
Alex Caruso (59)
Luguentz Dort (85)
Isaiah Hartenstein (88)
Number to watch: Gilgeous-Alexander’s production
He averaged 30.1 points, 54% shooting and 2.0 steals, becoming the third player to average those numbers, joining Michael Jordan and Stephen Curry.
Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander to score 50+ points in any regular-season game (+130)
Only Luka Doncic (33.1) and Joel Embiid (34.1) are projected to have a higher PPG than Gilgeous-Alexander (32.0). His career high is 44 points, but he had six games with 40-plus last season. As the Thunder’s top offensive playmaker, there’s a strong chance he’ll finally hit 50 this season. — Eric Moody
Bold fantasy prediction: Chet Holmgren becomes a fantasy superstar
The leap from unknown to rotation player is always an intriguing development. The rare surge from there to stardom can change your fantasy fortunes or the outcomes for real NBA teams. The rarest of transitions, however, is from star to superstar. This will occur for Holmgren this season. My bold take is that he will ascend to — while not Wemby heights — an entirely new statistical tier that includes dominant defense and a growing offensive repertoire that could become even more dangerous given his team’s added talent. He’s the only player who should be considered a peer with San Antonio’s special center in terms of block rate potential, while the support of his gifted teammates frees him up for direct handoffs, high-efficiency cut-and-lob plays, and even spot-up 3-point work. Put it this way, this is the last season for likely a decade that you can get Chet outside of the first round. — McCormick
3. New York Knicks
BPI’s overall ranking: 19
Chances to make playoffs: 64.6%
Projected wins: 40.6
When we last saw them: Even without star forward Julius Randle and center Mitchell Robinson, who’d been ruled out due to surgical procedures, the Knicks were on the cusp of reaching the Eastern Conference finals as they hosted the Pacers at Madison Square Garden in Game 7. But then the wheels came off in just about every conceivable way, with OG Anunoby — who tried to come back from a hamstring strain prematurely — hobbling around from the start, and star guard Jalen Brunson fracturing his shooting hand later in the game. By that point, the snakebit New York club lacked the horses to close out Indiana — let alone take on the eventual champion Celtics in the next round.
Biggest strength and weakness: The club’s offense, which at times was bogged down last season when teams sought to wall off Brunson, should be supercharged this season with the high-profile addition of Karl-Anthony Towns. The duo of Brunson and Towns will be difficult to stop: Is it more important to sink down and seal off Brunson’s ability to get to the basket, or is the priority to stay with Towns if and when he stays on the perimeter? Regardless, the Knicks will now have better floor spacing. New York’s depth undoubtedly took a hit with the loss of Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in a trade to Minnesota for Towns. Randle was a two-time All-NBA selection and was one of the toughest players on a team, and DiVincenzo — on one of the league’s best contracts — hit the third-most 3-pointers in the NBA in 2023-24. Because of the bruising style the Knicks play under coach Tom Thibodeau, depth always matters; particularly on the wings. Speaking of wings, the Knicks might have the best defensive duo in Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. But there’s still a question of rim protection with Towns, who primarily played power forward in Minnesota. This will be a shift for the big man, especially with Robinson, the backup center, unavailable for the first few months. — Chris Herring
Knicks in NBA Rank:
Jalen Brunson (12)
Karl-Anthony Towns (30)
Mikal Bridges (38)
OG Anunoby (51)
Josh Hart (61)
Mitchell Robinson (82)
Number to watch: Defense of Bridges and Anunoby
Over the past three seasons, Bridges has given up a 42.9% field goal percentage as the contesting defender, fifth lowest among 50 players to have contested at least 2,500 shots. Alongside Bridges on the wing will be Anunoby. The Knicks went 20-3 in Anunoby’s 23 games compared with 30-29 in his absence (from injury or pre-trade).
Best bet: Brunson to average over 26.5 points (-125).
Brunson averaged 28.7 points last season, comfortably over the 26.5 threshold. He was the clear focal point of the Knicks’ offense, working largely off the dribble with high usage. Despite New York’s big trades this offseason, its offensive lineup doesn’t change largely in scoring and playmaking caliber. If anything, with DiVincenzo no longer in town, Brunson might have to create even more. — Snellings
Fantasy: Do draft … Josh Hart
Hart is tougher to roster in roto/categories formats, since he neither scores much nor provides many 3-pointers, but for those who have to fill positions, having a guard rebound to this high level is golden. Hart goes undrafted in many leagues. — Karabell
4. Denver Nuggets
BPI’s overall ranking: 6
Chances to make playoffs: 81.6%
Projected wins: 46.3
When we last saw them: The Nuggets, after winning the 2023 NBA title, were bounced in the second round on their home court in a Game 7 loss to the Timberwolves. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray & Co. looked physically and mentally spent after trying to defend their title but now look to get back to the top of the West. They’ll do it without key cog Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who left in free agency for Orlando, although Denver added Russell Westbrook to give them a much-needed spark and leadership off the bench.
Biggest strength and weakness: The Nuggets will once again rely heavily on the best player in the game (and recently voted as the No. 1 player in ESPN’s top 100) in reigning MVP Jokic, who ranked in the top five in total points, rebounds and assists last season. He might have to shoulder even more during the start of the season after coach Michael Malone said Murray felt something “funny” in his knee ahead of last week’s preseason game against Phoenix. The Nuggets’ title hopes will be determined by Murray’s health as well as their bench after Christian Braun moved up into the starting lineup. As such, Westbrook, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther and Dario Saric will have to do one of the tougher things in basketball — deliver positive minutes when Jokic is resting. — Ohm Youngmisuk
Nuggets in NBA Rank:
Nikola Jokic (1)
Jamal Murray (31)
Aaron Gordon (49)
Michael Porter Jr. (89)
Number to watch: Jokic’s offensive prowess
The Nuggets outscored opponents by 682 points with Jokic on the court last season and in contrast were outscored by 251 points with him on the bench. Last season was the second consecutive one when Jokic led the NBA in plus/minus.
Best bet: Western Conference No. 5 Seed (+800)
Though Jokic is a three-time MVP who has carried the former champs when needed, even he can’t do it all. Murray looked banged up during the Olympics, and, with his new contract extension, the pressure on him is immense. Another issue is the tough competition in the West. Teams such as the Kings, Mavericks, Timberwolves and Thunder might be hungrier to win a championship and, in some cases, have better rosters than Denver. — Moody
Big fantasy question: Joker or Wemby at No. 1?
I am not drafting Joker No. 1 this season, despite his extremely worthy résumé and outlook, because I am taking a chance on the Alien. Wembanyama has a chance to put together a sophomore season for the ages. He has the potential to push toward the league lead in scoring and rebounding, and toward the league lead among centers in assists, steals and 3-pointers. He is flat going to lead the league in blocked shots, likely by a lot. In points-based leagues, I project Joker with a slightly higher fantasy points total than conservative estimates for Wemby, but it’s still close. Those same conservative estimates put Wemby on an island, alone in first place, in projected category-based league value. Overall, while Jokic has the higher floor than Wemby, with the top pick I’m taking a chance on the player with no ceiling. — Snellings
5. Philadelphia 76ers
BPI’s overall ranking: 3
Chances to make playoffs: 99.6%
Projected wins: 51.5
When we last saw them: The 76ers lost a hard-fought six-game series to the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs. Each team completed wild comebacks inside Madison Square Garden, with New York ultimately ending Philadelphia’s season on its home court. Former MVP Joel Embiid never quite looked like himself after sitting out most of the final 2½ months of the season because of a knee injury and returned just before the playoffs.
In response to their postseason performance, Philadelphia landed Paul George in free agency — one of the biggest offseason trades via free agency since Kawhi Leonard joined George with the Clippers five years earlier. They also re-signed Tyrese Maxey, extended Embiid, signed Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon and Caleb Martin and also brought back Kelly Oubre Jr. and Kyle Lowry. They also have several first-round picks they can use in deals to improve this season.
Biggest strength and weakness: Star power. When healthy, the trio of Embiid, George and Maxey is just as good as any team entering this season. If Philadelphia is going to break its decades-long championship drought, it’ll be on the backs of those stars delivering in April, May and June. Conversely, this team’s weakness is the health record of Embiid and George who are both currently dealing with injuries that stifled them in the preseason. The future of the franchise depends on the chemistry these two superstars cultivate this season — they just need to be on the court to do so. — Bontemps
76ers in NBA Rank:
Joel Embiid (8)
Tyrese Maxey (19)
Paul George (21)
NBA Rank’s top 100 countdown
• Nos. 10-1: Jokic tops LeBron, KD, Curry
• Nos. 50-11: A giant leap for Wemby
• Nos. 100-51:
Source: espn.com