What the numbers say about LeBron James’ quest to play 82 games

LeBron James will turn 40 in December, but that fact didn’t make it easier for the Sacramento Kings to prevent a game-changing sequence — and another historic feat — from the NBA’s all-time leading scorer on Oct. 26.

With just over 11 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, James caught a pass from Los Angeles forward Rui Hachimura, then drilled a triple from one step inside the Lakers’ half-court logo. On the next play, James hit a contested elbow jumper over Kings big man Alex Len. One play later, James, after fighting for positioning in the paint, drew an and-1 while being sandwiched between Fox and Kevin Huerter under the basket.

And James wasn’t done. On the next four Lakers possessions, he buried two more 3-pointers, assisted a dunk by Jaxson Hayes and capped his one-man run by cutting baseline for a reverse layup. Seven straight Lakers buckets turned a four-point deficit into a 14-point lead within a three-minute span, sparking a 131-127 win and Los Angeles’ first 3-0 start since 2010.

James finished with game highs in points (32), rebounds (14) and assists (10); the oldest player in league history to lead both teams in all three categories.

For James, who had logged just 26 minutes ahead of that late 18-point flurry against the Kings, staying rested enough to shine in closing moments of games will be critical for the Lakers’ chances in the stacked Western Conference.

That task could become even more daunting after James’ declaration the night before: He doesn’t want to take a single night off.

What would an 82-game season look like for the 22-year veteran? Should the Lakers even consider it? Let’s break down what the approach could mean for James, Los Angeles’ season and the race for the playoffs.

All 82? LeBron already showing how it could be done

There is precedent for future Hall of Famers playing 82 games at age 39 or older, but there certainly isn’t much. Since the league moved to an 82-game schedule in 1967, just two players have done it: John Stockton in 2001-02 and 2002-03 and Michael Jordan in 2002-03.

It’s a difficult feat for a player at any age. Of the 17 players who played in every regular-season game in 2023-24, 34-year-old Reggie Jackson was the oldest to do so. (James has played in all 82 games just once, during his final season with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2017-18.)

Still, despite his incredible bout with Father Time, the Lakers and James seem to be taking early-season measures to conserve his body.

James currently has the lowest usage rate of his career and has brought the ball up to start half-court possessions just 24 times per game, his fewest since 2015-16. He is on pace to have fewer touches than one of his teammates for the first time, as Davis, who is averaging a league-high 32.6 points, has served as the Lakers’ No. 1 option.

James has also seen a shift in his substitution pattern. Lakers first-year coach JJ Redick has taken James out first among his starters in each game, replacing him with wing Max Christie about five and a half minutes into each the season’s first seven contests. That’s a big shift from an average stint of nine minutes when James first joined the Lakers in 2018 and down from almost eight minutes last season under coach Darvin Ham.

The adjustment is designed to allow him more playing stints but also more breathers.

And on the court, James has found ways to conserve energy as a Laker. James ranked as the league’s slowest player in 2020-21 in average speed on the floor, second slowest in 2021-22, eighth slowest in 2022-23 and third slowest in 2023-24.

This season is more of the same, with James as sixth slowest among players with at least 200 minutes, per Second Spectrum tracking. (The vast majority of the slowest-moving players are superstars with James Harden, Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic also in last season’s top five among those with at least 50 games.)

That’s accomplished by playing off the ball, something James, Redick and the Lakers are finding far more creative ways to do.

How Redick’s style could aid LeBron’s quest for 82

It’s fitting that Redick, who frustrated NBA defenses for more than a decade with perpetual motion away from the ball, has implemented a similar game plan in Los Angeles.

The Lakers have jumped from 25th in the league in passes per game (267.5) a season ago to eighth this year (305.0), which has benefited James offensively but does demand a lot of activity from him.

Specifically, Redick has replaced many of those possessions where James once served as the lead ballhandler by having him more active away from the rock instead. He is setting nearly seven off-ball screens per 100 possessions, an almost 55% increase from last season. Similarly, James has been cutting 10.5 times per 100 possessions off his teammates’ off-ball screens, his highest mark since the 2015-16 season when he won the title with the Cavaliers.

The Lakers have been fairly successful in both scenarios, scoring 1.25 points per direct play when James cuts and 1.35 points per direct play when he springs from off-ball screens, both ranking ninth in the NBA.

Defensively, an 82-game grind won’t play to James’ strengths and the demands could be considerable, especially after James logged a season-high 40 minutes in Monday’s 115-103 loss to the Detroit Pistons. The Lakers have switched against on-ball screens 36% of the time, more than any NBA team this season. But when James serves as the screener defender, the team is allowing a whopping 1.33 points — the worst mark in the league among players who’ve been in that spot at least 45 times this season.

Regardless of how they play, the Lakers will need James on the court if Davis sits out for any period of time. With Davis missing Wednesday’s 131-114 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies with a foot injury, James scored a season-high 39 points. Prior to that game, the Lakers had outscored opponents by 2.5 points per 100 possessions in the 72 minutes James has played without Davis.

The verdict

The Lakers, who have needed the play-in tournament each of the past two seasons to reach the playoffs, don’t have much room for error. And they have now lost four out of their last five games since that win against Sacramento.

That reality makes it even more imperative to avoid injuries to James during the regular season, which may be achieved by giving him occasional rest, as opposed to having him push through.

Source: espn.com