Ten points at a time: Inside the incredibly high-risk, low-reward LeBron James bet
Professional sports bettor David J. spends his nights staring at updating box scores on his computer, rather than watching the actual games that determine his income. He is confident in his edge and doesn’t worry much about results. Sometimes, he plays multiple games of online poker while his sports bets are being decided. The night of Dec. 2, 2024, was different.
A situation potentially as detrimental to the 30-year-old’s pride as to his bankroll was unfolding in Minnesota, where the visiting Los Angeles Lakers were down 15 to the Timberwolves in the fourth quarter. More pressing for David J., LeBron James was laboring through one of his worst scoring games in years. Down in his dimly lit, unfinished basement in Iowa, David J. tuned in to the game.
Earlier in the season, he noticed that sportsbook FanDuel offered odds on James to score at least 10 points in a game and thought, “He’s LeBron James. He’s going to score 10.” He started betting the prop, laying pricey odds. In December, he decided to have a little fun and began publicizing that he was risking thousands of dollars for a chance at winning only a few hundred if James scored at least 10 points.
If you’re gonna give me LeBron 10 PTS I’m gonna take it for the max idc pic.twitter.com/0YeJjOd8gW
– Foazn (@FoaznPoker) December 2, 2024
On Dec. 1, a screenshot of his bet — $10,125 at -1800 odds to win a net $562 on James reaching double figures against the Utah Jazz — went viral, amassed 3.3 million views on X. He bragged to his buddies in their group chat and talked trash to commenters on X who questioned his strategy of betting a lot to win a little. He rubbed it in when his wager cashed in the second quarter.
“I was just laughing at all the people calling me an idiot, which I very well might be,” said David J., who asked to be identified by only his first name and last name initial. “I don’t care how lame I sound. It was cool when I was getting millions of impressions. It was fun.”
The next night, Monday, Dec. 2, was much more stressful. James, who had scored at least 10 points in every one of his games since 2007, had only seven points with 12 minutes to play in a blowout against the Wolves. An early exit for the King and the end of his record streak was a realistic scenario. David J. was sweating. He worried about his $9,000 bet and any potential social media backlash he would receive if James fans decided his wager jinxed the streak.
“It would have been the biggest egg-on-my-face moment. I thought all the LeBron fan accounts were going to hunt me down if this bet loses and the streak ends. I was ridiculously nervous,” he said with a chuckle. “It was fun, but I was [soiling] my pants.”
James hit a layup with 11:24 left and two minutes later made a free throw to give him 10 points, before exiting the game with seven minutes left and the Lakers down by 25 points. David J. exhaled. He had avoided an avalanche of being lambasted on social media and won $562.50, enough to buy new pants.
The LeBron 10-point betting market has taken off in the past three months
A high-stakes version of “The Price is Right” featuring an NBA legend, the market regularly draws six figures in action and often pits professional bettors against each other on opposite sides of the yes/no bet.
FanDuel stopped offering the wager on a game-by-game basis in mid-December, instead opting to use odds on James continuing his streak through the rest of the regular season. According to FanDuel, James was a -6000 favorite to score at least 10 points in the Lakers’ remaining games before being sidelined by a groin injury sustained on March 8 against the Boston Celtics. James scored 22 points before leaving midway through the fourth quarter.
With sportsbooks no longer taking action on the streak extending on a game-by-game basis, the wagering has shifted to peer-to-peer sweepstakes sites such as ProphetX, where customers use virtual currency to buy and sell sports outcomes among themselves instead of betting against the house at traditional sportsbooks.
“We’ve seen six figures in Prophet Cash traded most nights, and it is hundreds, if not thousands of customers, ranging from very big players on ‘Yes’ side, because of -5000 odds, to very small players on ‘No’ side, at long odds [usually 50-1 or longer]” Jake Benzaquen, co-founder of ProphetX, told ESPN.
David J. says he’s up around $42,000 betting the “yes” on James this season. His largest single-game risk came on Christmas Day, when he laid odds as short as -7000 to bet $74,275 on James to score at least 10 points against the Golden State Warriors.
“HE MIGHT CASH FIRST QUARTER,” he posted during the game. “YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID.”
He won a net $1,250 by early in the second quarter when James eclipsed 10 points on a 3-pointer.
The other side: Betting against LeBron
Chris D., a hedge fund analyst and savvy bettor in his mid-20s, has been on the other side of David J.’s bets. He says he believes the hype surrounding the streak has inflated the price and has bet against James scoring 10 points in a handful of games this season.
“I’ve lost over $10,000 on it,” said Chris D., who also requested to be identified only by his first name and last name initial.
He maintains there is value in betting against the streak when the price climbs to 65-1 or longer and believes the true probability of James not reaching 10 points in a game is approximately 2%, or 50-1. He used artificial intelligence to analyze historical injury rates for NBA players, factored in James’ age (40), but also his durability, and then shifted his focus to gauging just how much the Lakers’ superstar really cares about keeping the streak alive.
“This is where I differentiate most from people,” Chris D. said. “I do think LeBron wants the streak to continue, but he already has the record. I don’t think it’s as meaningful to him anymore. I don’t think it’s as extreme as people think it is.
“I’m not a LeBron hater,” he added. “This is price-sensitive to me.”
David J. disagrees and is convinced that James is extremely motivated to keep the streak alive. He says he believes the true price of James not scoring at least 10 points is less than 1%, closer to 120-1. For what it’s worth, James has scored fewer than 10 points in eight of 1,550 regular-season games or 0.52%.
Both bettors say they’re basically wagering on the odds of James getting hurt early in a game. On March 20, 2021, James rolled his ankle early in the second quarter against the Atlanta Hawks. He had seven points at the time and, despite the gimpy ankle, elected to stay in the game for one more offensive possession. He made a 3-pointer, giving him 10 points, then came out of the game. He would sit out the next 17 games because of the ankle injury.
James returned from his groin injury Saturday in a blowout loss to the Chicago Bulls. He finished with 17 points, giving David J. another win.
“If he gets to eight points, he’s going to get to 10,” David J. said. “He’ll get a bucket.” David J. has upgraded his workspace since those December nights in his Iowa basement. He’s now spending time betting in Arizona. He says the liquidity on the James’ 10-point prop increased significantly since he started posting about the bets on social media, but so has the price.
“You can still get down a bunch most game days,” he said. “Just have to do it at higher prices.”
Even as the price climbs upward of -7000, meaning he has to risk $7,000 to win $100, David J. believes it’s worth it and plans to continue backing James for as much money as possible, haters be damned.
“It’s nice to be on the side of minus-7000,” he said. “Even if I’m making a bad bet, there’s a decent chance I get to take a victory lap on the people that were dunking on me to begin with.”
Source: espn.com