Real or not? Five top trends from NBA playoffs’ first round
The first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs has already produced some thrilling moments, overtime clashes and big-time performances — all of which serve as a good reminder of how small differences can decide best-of-seven series.
There’s no better example of that than Aaron Gordon’s buzzer-beating dunk to win Game 4 in the Denver Nuggets‘ hard-fought series against the LA Clippers. Slowed down to the frame level, it was as close as can be when the ball left Gordon’s hands before the clock struck zero, potentially the difference in a series in which the Nuggets now have a 3-2 lead.
Within the small sample size across the postseason’s first two weeks, the trends that have defined the first round probably won’t prove sustainable. But it’s worth examining if they could swing some of the series that have yet to be decided, especially Wednesday’s key matchups in the Western Conference.
Are the Minnesota Timberwolves’ strong finishes and the Houston Rockets’ success playing a pair of centers legitimate? Those answers could decide whether the Los Angeles Lakers can force a Game 6 against Minnesota and if the Golden State Warriors can knock out Houston.
Let’s dig into the numbers to try to separate some of the initial key takeaways from the playoffs into what’s real and what’s not.
Jump to a trend:
Wolves more clutch than Lakers?
Rockets big men an issue for the Dubs?
Heavy minutes a factor?
Celtics gone cold from the 3?
All OK with SGA?
Trend: Timberwolves dominating in crunch time
Minnesota’s difficulty winning close games was a big reason it had to battle to avoid the play-in tournament despite the second-best point differential (plus-5.0 PPG) in the Western Conference. Minnesota went 20-26 in games that reached the NBA advanced stats definition of clutch (a game within five points in the final five minutes of regulation), and the Timberwolves’ minus-8.4 net rating in those situations was ahead of only two other playoff teams — the Detroit Pistons and Miami Heat.
Close games in this matchup figured to favor the Lakers, who went 23-16 in clutch games to claim the No. 3 seed in the West with the conference’s eighth-best point differential. Instead, after two lopsided games as the teams split in Los Angeles, Minnesota was plus-14 in clutch situations during a pair of close games at home to put the Lakers on the brink of elimination.
By definition, crunch time in a single series will be subject to small-sample randomness. For all of Anthony Edwards’ efforts down the stretch, the Timberwolves’ leading scorer on field goals in these situations is center Naz Reid, who has gone 3-of-3 from 3-point range. It’s hard to take much from that as we project ahead to a potential second-round series in which Minnesota would have home-court advantage if the No. 7 seed Warriors were to also advance.
But within this series, the Lakers’ clutch problems feel less random and more a product of fatigue. The Lakers’ recipe for success since adding Luka Doncic has been to have him control the first three quarters before LeBron James takes over late. In Game 3, Doncic’s illness threw off the equation, forcing James to take too heavy of a load early in the game.
During Sunday’s Game 4, Lakers coach JJ Redick decided he couldn’t trust his depth for even a minute during the second half, playing the same five players. Both scenarios left James out of gas for the stretch run. In Game 3, the Lakers scored only one point (a free throw) over the last 4½ minutes. Role players Dorian Finney-Smith and Rui Hachimura made a pair of 3s late in Game 4, but Doncic and James were scoreless over the final five minutes, missing all four of their shots.
Had a play or two gone differently Sunday, the Lakers could have won, and it’s possible they’ll get a clutch victory Wednesday to extend the series. But the Timberwolves’ superior depth gives them the edge in close games, flipping an advantage the Lakers were relying on.
Verdict: Real for this series, not real beyond
Trend: Double-big lineup spells trouble for the Warriors
After using 6-foot-11 centers Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun together at times over the first three games of their series with the Warriors, the Rockets went all-in on the double-big lineup in Monday’s Game 4. Adams and Sengun played 23 minutes together, most in any game this season, and the Rockets outscored the Warriors by 18 points.
About the only solution Warriors coach Steve Kerr found in Game 4 was to hack Adams, a 46% free throw shooter during the regular season. Instead of testing Adams at the line as in Saturday’s Game 3, Houston counterpart Ime Udoka pulled him from the game, not to return until the final two minutes when intentional fouls away from the play are penalized more harshly.
Heading into Wednesday’s Game 5, we can expect to see more of Adams and Sengun. But we probably shouldn’t anticipate the same Rockets dominance. Although Houston has mauled Golden State on the offensive glass with Adams and Sengun throughout the series, rebounding more than half of the team’s misses when both are on the court, Monday’s results were supercharged by aberrant shooting. The Rockets went 7-of-9 on 3s (78%) with the double-big lineup, while the Warriors shot 6-of-23 (26%) against a heavy dose of Houston zone.
From Golden State’s perspective, I’d be more concerned about future matchups. After all, Houston playing Adams and Sengun together is partly a product of how ineffective the Rockets’ more traditional lineups have been with Jalen Green scoring in double figures only once in four games (not coincidentally, Houston’s lone win). Udoka played his two centers together for more than a single possession only once before March.
If both the Golden State and Minnesota advance, the Timberwolves’ duo of Rudy Gobert and Reid offers similar size with more floor spacing and experience together. And should Golden State reach the conference finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s starting frontcourt of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren could expose Golden State’s lack of size and defensive rebounding prowess for more extended stretches than the Rockets have.
Verdict: Not real this series, real beyond
Trend: Jokic among key players logging big minutes
Redick isn’t alone in not trusting his depth in the first round of the playoffs. With Russell Westbrook sidelined for Saturday’s Game 4, Nuggets interim coach David Adelman played his starters at least 42 minutes. Both Nikola Jokic and Christian Braun played the entire second half, the second time Jokic has done so in this series — already as many times as during the Nuggets’ 2023 title run.
More generally, eight players are averaging at least 40 minutes in the first round, with four Nuggets (Braun, Gordon, Jokic and Jamal Murray) at 39.1 or more. In an era in which the minutes of stars are carefully managed, that stands out. First-round playing time bottomed out from 2016 through 2020, when there were only 10 total series in which a player averaged at least 40 minutes. (Three of those times were James, and another three Paul George, with Giannis Antetokounmpo twice and two other players once each.)
But recently we’ve seen an uptick. During the 2024 first round, 14 players reached the 40-minute average in the first round, the most in a decade. To some degree, limiting minutes during the regular season so players can ramp up during the playoffs when it matters most is the whole point of load management. Still, averaging 40-plus minutes over an extended playoff run is a challenge.
Since 2018, only three players who have topped 40 per game in the first round have seen their teams reach the NBA Finals, and all three of them — Devin Booker with the 2021 Phoenix Suns, Jayson Tatum with the 2022 Boston Celtics and Doncic with last year’s Dallas Mavericks — saw their teams lose in the Finals. The last eventual champion to average at least 40 minutes in the first round was James in 2016.
That’s good news for the Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, who didn’t have to extend their stars in lopsided sweeps. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led Oklahoma City at 35 minute and no Cleveland player averaged more than 31.3.
Verdict: Real, but worrisome
Trend: The Boston 3-party has quieted down
After setting an NBA record by attempting 48 3-pointers per game during the regular season, the Celtics rank 11th of the 16 playoff teams so far in the first round with 33 attempts per game against the Orlando Magic.
Taking advantage of their mobile big men and physical guards, the Magic have been comfortable switching pick-and-rolls and defending one-on-one, keeping their help defenders at home on Boston’s dangerous shooters.
The Celtics still rank fifth in pull-up 3-point attempts (12.5 per game), according to GeniusIQ tracking on NBA advanced stats, but their 20 catch-and-shoot attempts — down from 30.7 in the regular season — are tied for third lowest.
Although Orlando’s anemic offense was incapable of taking advantage, could the way the Magic have defended the Celtics provide a template for future opponents? Yes and no. The flip side of Orlando’s strategy is the Magic — one of five teams to average at least 20 fouls during the regular season — have put the Celtics on the foul line frequently. Boston’s 26.3 free throw attempts per game lead all teams after the Celtics attempted the fewest free throws (19.1) per game during the regular season.
As a result, limiting 3s hasn’t short-circuited the Boston offense, which has still scored at the sixth-highest rate on a per-possession basis. Given Orlando boasted the NBA’s second-best defensive rating in the regular season, that’s not so bad. And not every team has the personnel to switch pick-and-rolls so frequently — 46% of the time, according to GeniusIQ — without creating mismatches.
The New York Knicks and Cavaliers, the Celtics’ most likely remaining opponents, have small guards who might not be able to handle defending Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis and Tatum one-on-one. And the Knicks won’t want to put Karl-Anthony Towns on an island against Brown or Tatum either.
The team best equipped to follow the Magic’s game plan is the only team that had a better defensive rating this season: the Thunder. But Oklahoma City has used the opposite strategy. Thunder opponents attempted 3s at the league’s highest rate, including 109 for Boston in two meetings. But the Celtics made only 27% of those 3s as Oklahoma City swept the season series.
Verdict: Not real
Trend: OKC concerned with SGA’s slow start
After scoring 18 points on Oct. 30 in a win over San Antonio, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reached 20 points in the remaining 75 games of the regular season. Only Wilt Chamberlain (80 games, twice) and Oscar Robertson (76) have had longer single-season streaks. In that context, it’s notable that the MVP front-runner was relatively quiet over the first three games of the Thunder’s first-round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished with just 15 points in 23 minutes during Oklahoma City’s 51-point Game 1 win, and while he totaled 58 points in the next two games, that came on atypically poor 20-of-55 (36%) shooting. Only in Game 4 did Gilgeous-Alexander score efficiently, putting up 38 points on 13-of-24 shooting with 11 free throws.
Memphis guard Scotty Pippen Jr. deserves credit for his defense on Gilgeous-Alexander. On 25 shots with Pippen as the closest defender, Gilgeous-Alexander’s quantified shot probability (qSP) — the effective field goal percentage we’d expect based on the type of shot, location and distance of nearby defenders — was just 49.5%, as compared to 54% during the regular season, according to GeniusIQ.
On all other shots, Gilgeous-Alexander’s qSP was 54%, same as the regular season. Yet Gilgeous-Alexander actually shot an effective 45% on those attempts.
Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander was 16-of-53 (30%) on shots outside the paint in the first round. He hit those at a 43% rate during the regular season. I don’t see any reason for concern as the Thunder look ahead to the second round and beyond.
Verdict: Not real
Source: espn.com