Polling NBA execs on Rutgers’ Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey
Piscataway, New Jersey, hit its all-time high in NBA front office foot traffic this season, thanks to a pair of projected top-five draft picks — Rutgers star freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey.
Harper and Bailey, who are ranked Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, on ESPN’s Top 100 rankings for the 2025 draft, could become the first college teammates selected in the top five since Duke’s Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett in 2019. Their high-profile pairing has put Rutgers at the center of behind-the-scenes conversations with NBA teams that are working to get a handle on the top of the draft, which is led by projected No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg (Duke).
In October, the Scarlet Knights earned a preseason top-25 ranking for the second time since 1979, thanks to the additions of Harper and Bailey, two of the highest-ranked recruits in program history. Fast-forward to March, however, and Rutgers’ results haven’t lived up to expectations. The Scarlet Knights (14-16) are not projected to make the NCAA tournament.
Despite the challenging season, Harper and Bailey have made clear their cases as top prospects. Harper, a 6-foot-6 point guard with scoring prowess, is averaging 19.3 points and has won scouts over with his command of the floor. Bailey, a 6-10 wing, is averaging 18.2 points and stepping up as arguably the best tough-shot maker in college basketball.
How have NBA teams’ evaluations of Harper and Bailey changed this season? What are their strengths, weaknesses and most projectable traits at the next level? Whom do they compare to in the NBA? Are scouts concerned about evaluating the pair as individuals and what’s the impact of Rutgers likely missing the NCAA tournament?
To answer these questions and better understand the conversation around Rutgers’ duo, ESPN talked to 10 NBA executives and scouts who agreed to analyze Harper and Bailey on the condition of anonymity.
During these discussions, one notion was unanimous: It rarely hurts to see elite prospects playing together.
“The reality is that’s what happens in the NBA,” an Eastern Conference executive said. “You’re not going to get there and be the only guy that’s good.”
Evaluating Harper: ‘An offensive orchestrator with size’
Scouts view Harper as the safest option at No. 2 due to his polished game and poise. An NBA team searching for the biggest upside would have to give Bailey strong consideration, and Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe (who ranks No. 4 in ESPN’s Top 100) also has a case.
“Before we do postseason deep dives, I think he should be [No.] 2. Isn’t he what everyone is looking for? An offensive orchestrator with size,” a Western Conference general manager said about Harper. “An oversized handler surrounded with shooting and interior defense — he’s just so dynamic. You can build a successful offense around the guy.”
Harper, 19, battled through a difficult January, dealing with the flu (which caused him to lose weight) and an ankle injury that forced him to miss two games. He has showcased his instincts, feel for running a team and scoring. Scouts love his pace and strength. He is shooting 66.9% at the rim, per Synergy, placing him in the 84th percentile nationally — and rates in the 87th percentile as a pick-and-roll playmaker (1.062 points per possession, including assists).
Though not an elite athlete, Harper’s strength, size and tight handle give him an advantage with the ball. Scouts told ESPN he has shown better downhill burst after trimming to 215 pounds entering college. Concerns about his pro potential largely center on his perimeter shooting — he’s an average shooter dating to the Nike EYBL, and is shooting 34% on 3-pointers, leaving room for improvement. Evaluators believe his low assist totals (four per game despite a high usage rate) are due to teammates struggling to finish plays. Nobody questioned his playmaking ability.
“The biggest [issue] is just the shot, nothing other than you just want to project out how high level it can get,” a different Western Conference executive said. “It’s a little flat and inconsistent. But to me, that’s the only question.”
Evaluators zeroed in on Harper’s approach, which they believe can improve with experience. When he’s focused as a defender, he’s capable of success.
“His motor still doesn’t run super high off the ball,” one Eastern Conference executive said. “He still has to learn how to play without [the ball] versus taking breaks in those situations.”
Multiple scouts want to see Harper compete harder, though they didn’t view it as an impediment.
“He may not reach the heights some No. 2 picks reach, but nobody will get fired for taking him,” a scout from a Western Conference team said.
Evaluating Bailey: ‘He might have the highest ceiling in the draft’
There’s a convincing case for Bailey as the top offensive prospect in the draft, but scouts agreed he’s not its most polished. His shotmaking could reach new heights with focused NBA development.
Bailey, 18, isn’t a dynamic ball handler and struggles with efficiency, making a subpar 51.2% of all twos and 69.2% from the free throw line despite shooting 35.4% from distance. His other numbers are more convincing: Per Synergy, he has converted 62.1% of shots at the rim and made 48% of his midrange attempts outside of 17 feet this season (83rd percentile nationally).
“The best players in the league are the good midrange players because teams will give that up in the playoffs,” the general manager said.
Bailey’s ability to make difficult shots, particularly at his size, is a coveted trait for perimeter scorers.
“If he can get to a spot [to shoot], he doesn’t see you,” one Eastern Conference executive said. “He’s one of those types of guys who elevate so high, they don’t even notice the defender is there.”
play2:01Star freshman Ace Bailey drops 37 points in Rutgers’ win
Ace Bailey goes off for 37 points as Rutgers defeats Northwestern, becoming the first Division I freshman with multiple 35-point road games since Trae Young.
Coupled with his quickness and burst at his size, his scoring has kept him atop draft projections despite rudimentary areas in other parts of his game.
“His shot selection, understanding of what the team needs, willingness to keep the ball moving is much better than it was at the start of the year,” another Eastern Conference executive said. “As the scouting report has been refined against him, he’s actually playing sound basketball.”
Bailey has improved as a passer and has created shots for himself despite his below-average handle. One scout underscored that Bailey entered college with limited high-level experience, having played on a low-profile AAU team for much of high school.
Evaluators’ most recurring question centers on Bailey’s ability to process the floor. He has shown improvement in making reads, but can take the occasional wild shot or commit a turnover. He also struggles to focus defensively. There was consensus that where Bailey lands in the NBA, and how that team approaches his development, would be especially important. Multiple executives cited the need for veterans around him to ease the transition.
Evaluators differed on the best developmental pathway for Bailey: There’s a case for NBA teams bringing him along slowly in a lower-usage role and another for funneling offense through him and letting him learn through the likely ups and downs.
“My concern is if you put him into a box [role-wise], will he be able to play in that box?” one Western Conference scout said.
Though there’s a range of opinions from the 10 NBA executives polled, including the feeling Bailey comes with more risk than Harper, the league’s constant hunt for stars has held Bailey’s draft stock in place.
“He might have the highest ceiling in the draft,” a third Eastern Conference executive said. “I know [he’s] inconsistent and there are question marks with the playmaking — the shotmaking and creation could be elite. He checks those boxes if he hits the level he could be capable of.”
Which NBA players are the best comps for Harper and Bailey?
Harper, who’s father Ron is a five-time NBA champion, was most consistently compared to Detroit’s Cade Cunningham, according to scouts ESPN polled. Other players mentioned included Denver’s Jamal Murray, New York‘s Jalen Brunson, and though perhaps lofty, Clippers guard James Harden. Scouts mostly agreed that though Harper’s archetype makes plenty of sense in the NBA, finding a one-to-one comparison was tricky.
“[Harper is] a little bit unique because he’s so versatile and there’s so much depth to his game,” the general manager said. “James [Harden] was a bit more projectably athletic. Dylan is stronger, but his game is power-based. The advantage he gains is through his strength and mass. James had that, too, but he was also quick-twitch athletic and could change directions and speeds.”
Four evaluators brought up Cunningham, and that makes sense from a role perspective but falls short from a tools and versatility standpoint.
“Cade could physically move people,” an Eastern Conference executive said. “He could play every position without being at a disadvantage. Dylan, you still have questions if he can guard 3s in the NBA [due to his size].”
Although Bailey is considered further away from reaching his ceiling, some lofty names also came up in conversations. His combination of shotmaking and athleticism brought to mind former All-NBA selections Tracy McGrady and Carmelo Anthony, pointing to his best-case scenario as a prolific high-usage scorer if everything were to break correctly.
More realistic comparisons included Charlotte forward Brandon Miller, Toronto wing Brandon Ingram, and Denver’s Michael Porter Jr, with scouts citing Bailey’s positional size and pull-up shooting ability. Porter’s role with the Nuggets, where he largely spaces off Nikola Jokic and isn’t tasked with much creation, was viewed by several scouts as a realistic floor, with Bailey’s shooting ability likely a value add.
“[It’s] guys with size who can all shoot and create some offense,” another scout from a Western Conference team said. “Miller naturally is a bit more defensive-minded, but [they’re the] same vein of prospect.”
How has their pairing at Rutgers impacted their pro evaluation?
With college basketball rosters skewing older in this era due to players’ additional eligibility and NIL incentives, and the talent around Harper and Bailey viewed as subpar for the Big Ten level (“mid-major bad,” as one executive put it), the attitude from scouts around Rutgers’ season has largely been forgiving.
For the most part, highly selected college players in the past decade of drafts have starred or played roles on teams that were good enough to make the tournament field. There are exceptions — past No. 1 picks Ben Simmons (LSU, 2016) and Markelle Fultz (Washington, 2017) didn’t make the tournament with their teams, and Anthony Edwards’ Georgia team was 15-16 when the 2020 season was canceled because of the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown.
With Rutgers not projected as a bubble team, Harper and Bailey are likely to join that unenviable club. Many of the NBA personnel I spoke to were unconcerned about that piece of the evaluation. Evaluators told ESPN they have felt positive about Harper and Bailey playing on the same team and competing to be drafted. Scouts like to see high-level talent sharing the floor, and Harper and Bailey didn’t hurt each other’s production with their roles in the Scarlet Knights’ offense.
College teams heavily oriented around high-usage teenagers are signing up for some inconsistency. Texas’ Tre Johnson and Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears, both freshmen who are projected lottery picks in June’s draft, were cited by one executive as similar case studies to Harper and Bailey. NBA teams look favorably on winning backgrounds, but are more focused on players’ nuances during the predraft process.
There’s also recency bias that can stem from a player’s strong showing in March. The tournament’s value for prospects is obvious, but there can also be negative externalities for front offices, particularly if hands-on ownership gets involved in decision-making.
“[For teams], it can be a negative — a lot of the owners watch the tournament,” one Eastern Conference executive said. “Some of them will form opinions after seeing players for a short amount of time, and that can change things [in your process].”
Amid Rutgers’ disappointing season, Harper’s and Bailey’s draft stock has largely held steady. Both have had opportunities to shine: Harper has missed three games, which has given Bailey chances to take over without him, scoring his season highs (39 points at Indiana on Jan. 2 and 37 at Northwestern on Jan. 29) in two of those instances. Harper’s two highest-scoring games (36 against Notre Dame, 37 against Alabama) came in November on back-to-back days in Las Vegas, during a stretch when Bailey, as seen by scouts in attendance, struggled with conditioning after missing the first two games of the season.
When Harper and Bailey are together, scouts tell ESPN they play off each other well. Harper has a teammate who can finish the plays he creates, and Bailey has one capable of drawing attention and setting him up to score. Though it has taken time for them to develop chemistry, the situation has served its purpose for their pro development.
“Had there been no Harper, maybe you’d see [Ace] as a primary [player] jacking up a million shots,” the Western Conference executive said. “Here, I also get to see what it looks like if he plays a support role getting a bunch of open looks, hitting jumpers, not having to be the primary.”
In all likelihood, Rutgers’ season will end next week in the Big Ten Tournament (to clinch a spot, the Scarlet Knights need a win Sunday against Minnesota). It would be the last opportunity for Bailey and Harper to leave an impression, barring an unlikely run that would net Rutgers an automatic bid to the NCAA field. Though this season wasn’t what each player expected, their next challenge will come soon when they cross the Barclays Center stage June 25.
“You want to see [players] be competitive, and play well, more so than hold the team’s success against guys,” another executive said. “What you want to see is guys playing hard, [showing] growth from the start of the season. They both have.”
Source: espn.com