NBA trade deadline tiers – Deal scenarios, outlooks for all 30 teams

Which NBA teams are most likely to make moves at the trade deadline?

The league has seen a flurry of smaller deals, most notably the Los Angeles Lakers adding Dorian Finney-Smith and the Phoenix Suns picking up a few first-round picks.

But is there a star trade out there between now and the trade deadline Feb. 6?

We’re tiering all 30 teams based on the likelihood of a deal and adding each franchise’s salary cap status and most valuable draft assets.

Plus, we’re identifying one trade (or more) we’d like to see for each team at the deadline. Some feature contenders filling a need before the stretch run, while others result in the Oklahoma City Thunder accumulating more draft picks.

On to my trade deadline tiers, starting with the seven teams that could be very active over the next week and a half.

Jump to a tier:
The true dealmakers
The wild card teams
Bottom-line watchers
Mega deal facilitators
Tradable contracts, not picks
Don’t rush into a deal
The power brokers

Tier 1: The true dealmakers

Brooklyn Nets

Recent transactions:

• Traded Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton to the Los Angeles Lakers for D’Angelo Russell, Maxwell Lewis and three second-round picks (2027, 2030, 2031 via Lakers)

• Traded Dennis Schroder and a 2025 second-round pick (via Miami if 38-59) to Golden State for De’Anthony Melton, Reece Beekman and three seconds (2026 via Atlanta, 2028 via Atlanta, 2031 via Golden State)

Keep an eye on: GM Sean Marks and forward Cam Johnson

Brooklyn’s trade to regain their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks from Houston and the trade to send Mikal Bridges to New York set the stage for how Marks would conduct business this season.

Instead of competing for the play-in tournament, the Nets’ goal was to establish a foundation with new coach Jordi Fernandez, increase draft assets, create additional financial flexibility and be in a position for a high lottery pick. Marks and Brooklyn have accomplished that.

The Nets have a league-high four first-rounders in June’s draft and $60 million in projected cap space. Their own first, originally controlled by Houston, will likely fall in the top-6.

In total, Brooklyn has 15 first-round picks and 16 seconds available in the next seven years. The Nets could increase their future draft picks in a Johnson trade or wait until the offseason if one does not materialize. Johnson has two years remaining on his contract and there should be no sense of urgency to trade him.

Johnson checks three boxes for playoff teams: He plays a position of need, is on a team-friendly contract ($20.5 million and $22.5 million) and is averaging career highs in points (19.3), field goal percentage (49.1%) and 3-point percentage (43.2%). Teams interested in Johnson have to weigh the $4.5 million in unlikely bonuses that count toward the apron.

For example, a hypothetical trade with Golden State involving Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, Brandin Podziemski and a 2026 top-8 protected first-rounder would match in salary. However, because bonuses count toward the apron, the trade is not legal.

One trade that works

Brooklyn receives:
Cole Anthony
Gary Harris
2026 Orlando first-round pick (top-12 protected)
2028 second-round pick (more favorable of Lakers or Wizards)
2030 first-round swap (top-10 protected)

Orlando receives:
Cameron Johnson
Keon Johnson

In this deal, the Nets add to their collection of 31 draft picks over the next seven years and create additional financial flexibility. If Brooklyn declines Harris’ $7.5 million team option, it would then have over $70 million in cap space available.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• Unprotected first-round picks from New York in 2027, 2029 and 2031

• Swap rights in 2028 with Phoenix or New York

Other notable draft assets:

• Own first-round pick in the next seven years (Houston can swap in 2027)

• Unprotected first-round pick from New York in 2025

• 2025 first-round pick from Milwaukee (if 6-30)

• Least favorable of Phoenix, Houston (if 11-30) and Oklahoma City (2025)

• Top-8 protected from Philadelphia (2027 or 2028)

• Least favorable of Dallas, Phoenix and Houston (2029)

• 16 future second-round picks

Other notes

• The Nets are $667K below the luxury tax and $1.9 million below the first apron

• They are not in position to take back salary despite having six exceptions ($23.3M, $12.8M, $4.7M, $3.4M, $2.9M and $2.7M)

• Trendon Watford signed a one-year contract. Because he is a free agent with Bird rights in the offseason, he has the right to void any trade.

Detroit Pistons

Keep an eye on: cap space

In December at the G League showcase, NBA executives pointed to Detroit as a team that could control the trade deadline. With contending teams over the apron or luxury tax, the Pistons and their $14 million in cap space were in an ideal position to act as a third team, taking back contracts with draft picks attached to continue their rebuild.

A lot has changed since.

The Pistons still have that $14 million, but rather than acting as a facilitator, they are now in position to improve a roster at the deadline. After starting the season 11-17, Detroit is competing not only for a postseason spot but a top-6 seed in the East.

Detroit will not have its own first (it goes to Minnesota if it falls outside of the top-13) but has 11 second-round picks. If they exhaust all their cap space, Detroit will be allowed to use the $8 million room exception to use in a trade.

One trade that works

Detroit receives:
Jabari Walker

Portland receives:
Wendell Moore Jr.
2027 second (less favorable of Brooklyn and Dallas)

Detroit receives:
Kevon Looney
Cash considerations

Golden State receives:
2031 second (if 56-60)

These separate trades would strengthen the Pistons’ depth without sacrificing future flexibility. Looney, who is on an expiring contract, is averaging 6.9 rebounds and would back up Jalen Duren. Walker has fallen out of the rotation in Portland. Last season, he scored in double digits 28 times and racked up 16 games of double-digit rebounds.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 11 second-round picks in the next seven years

Other notable draft assets:

• Their own first starting two years after the pick to Minnesota is conveyed

• The Pistons owe Minnesota a top-13 protected first this season

• If it does not convey, they will then send a top-11 protected first next year or a top-9 protected first in 2027.

Other notes

• The Pistons have an open roster spot.

• Cade Cunningham signed a rookie max extension in July. Although it is extremely unlikely, Cunningham can still be traded but his incoming salary counts as $37.8 million and outgoing $13.9 million.

Memphis Grizzlies

Keep an eye on: Luke Kennard, John Konchar, future first-rounders and Jimmy Butler

Before the Lakers came in at the last minute, the Grizzlies were positioned to acquire forward Dorian Finney-Smith from the Nets. The framework of that offer — Kennard, Konchar and a 2025 protected first-rounder — confirms Memphis is not content with the third-best record in the West.

Kennard is on an expiring $9.2 million contract and has Bird rights as a free agent, meaning he has to approve any trade. He has $1.4 million in unlikely bonuses (the team he is on wins the NBA championship) that count toward the apron. Konchar is owed $13.2 million over the next two seasons.

Since GM Zach Kleiman took over in 2019, the Grizzlies have never traded one of their own first-round picks outright. (Kleiman sent one to Boston as part of the Marcus Smart trade, but that was acquired from Golden State.)

As for Butler, the Grizzlies are the one team with the contracts, draft picks and apron flexibility to trade for the former All-Star. The unknown is whether Memphis sees Butler as a rental for the remainder of the season or a player to invest in for the next two seasons.

One trade that works

Memphis receives:
Jimmy Butler

Miami receives:
Marcus Smart
Brandon Clarke
John Konchar
2025 top-14 protected first

Toronto receives:
Luke Kennard
2026 second (via LAL)
cash considerations

There is a calculated risk in acquiring Butler considering he can be a free agent in the offseason. But the risk is worth it when considering the Western Conference is wide open this season. And even with Butler’s $48.8 million salary, Memphis stays under the luxury tax.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• Own first in the next seven years

Other notable draft assets:

• Five future second-round picks

• More favorable swap of their own and least favorable swap of Orlando and Phoenix (2026)

• The right to swap their own with the less favorable first of Phoenix and Washington (2030)

Miami Heat

Keep an eye on: the Butler saga

Before Butler’s first team suspension was lifted, coach Erik Spoelstra best explained what is next.

“Look, we work in a league of complexity,” Spoelstra said. “We’re in an unusual place right now. But really all it is is complex and we fully plan on operating within this complexity. So it’s my job to prepare this team, get them ready to play at a high level and that’s what I’m doing. That’s what the plan is. My methods for doing it are really none of your business.”

The complexities in Miami revolve around Butler, his desire to be traded, the Heat not compromising their future in a trade and more importantly, the consequences if he is on the roster after the deadline.

The first option for Miami is to trade Butler and not let the distraction continue into the summer. The Heat will contend for a playoff spot with or without Butler on the roster, but the Heat are not going to trade Butler just to make a deal. The team Butler wishes to be traded to, Phoenix, is not a destination unless Bradley Beal is relocated to a third team. Beal has a no trade clause and is owed $111 million on his contract after this season.

Sources told ESPN’s Tim Bontemps last week that the Heat would like to find a deal to accommodate Butler’s wishes, but a deal that satisfies what Miami is looking for — some combination of (A) players who can help the Heat now, (B) movable short-term salary, (C) young players and (D) draft capital — hasn’t materialized. Butler can be a free agent in the offseason but that requires him declining his $52.4 million option.

Butler is currently on the suspended list but this time for an indefinite period of time.

One trade that works

Miami receives:
Marcus Smart
Brandon Clarke
John Konchar
2025 top-8 protected first

Memphis receives:
Jimmy Butler
Josh Richardson

Washington receives:
Luke Kennard
2026 second (via Los Angeles Lakers)
cash considerations

Out of the possible trade destinations, Memphis gives Miami the best options in players who can contribute now and future flexibility. Smart and Clarke’s contracts expire after the 2025-26 season and Konchar has one more year. In this deal, the Heat barely avoid paying the luxury tax and drop below the first apron, saving $35 million in combined salary and tax penalty this season.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

Their own first but only two years after the conditions to Charlotte have been met. Miami is sending their 2025 top-14 protected first to Oklahoma City. If the first is sent, then the Heat will send their 2027 top-14 protected first to Charlotte (the first is unprotected in 2028 if not conveyed in 2027). If the Heat miss the playoffs this season, an unprotected first goes to the Thunder in 2026 and Hornets in 2028.

Other notable draft assets:

• The right to swap first-round picks in 2029, 2030 and 2031

• Three future second-round picks

Other notes

• The Heat are $13.1 million over the luxury tax and projected to pay a $23.8 million penalty.

• They are $2.4 million below the second apron and are not allowed to aggregate contracts sent out if the post-trade salary leaves them over the second apron.

New Orleans Pelicans

Keep an eye on: luxury tax and Brandon Ingram

The Pelicans are going to make a major trade.

The statement is not a reaction to their disappointing season but the business of basketball reality. New Orleans is not making the playoffs and is $1.4 million over the luxury tax.

They have not finished a season over the tax in franchise history and will not do so this year, especially in the lottery.

How the Pelicans get below could range from taking less salary in an Ingram trade or finding a new home for Daniel Theis, Javonte Green or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Those three players are earning $2.1 million this year.

The future of Ingram continues to be in flux. He is on an expiring $36 million salary and has not played since Dec. 8 when he sprained his left ankle. He is a free agent in July if no extension is reached between both sides or a trade materializes.

Leading up to the Feb. 6 deadline, one of three things will occur:

Ingram signs an extension worth less than the max to remain in New Orleans.

Ingram, who recently switched agents to Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, has been eligible to sign a four-year, $208 million max extension since the first day after the NBA Finals. But the Pelicans have shown no inclination to pay Ingram a contract that starts at $46.4 million per year.

“There’s a difference between getting something done, and having the opportunity to make it all work, and we haven’t yet,” Pelicans executive vice president of basketball operations David Griffin said before the start of preseason. “If we get to a point where it’s the right time and the right fit, we can. Unfortunately we just haven’t been in a situation where the parties have met in the middle.”

The Pelicans find Ingram a new team.

Ingram, 27, has averaged 22 points or more in six straight seasons. If Ingram were traded, he is eligible to sign up to a three-year, $146 million extension prior to June 30. If Ingram were traded, the Pelicans would owe him a $2 million trade bonus. The bonus is added to his salary in a trade but can be reduced or voided.

No trade materializes.

The financial landscape of the NBA makes it challenging to trade for him. Outside of the Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder, the top teams in either conference are in the luxury tax or apron and are restricted on first-round picks to send in a trade. (Five teams — San Antonio, Brooklyn, Oklahoma City, Houston and Utah — control 65 first-round picks over the next seven years.)

The other obstacle could be teams’ unwillingness to give up significant compensation, in either players or draft picks. While there is a risk that Ingram can leave for nothing as a free agent, only Brooklyn and Washington project to have more than $30 million in cap space next summer.

Two trades that work

San Antonio receives:
Brandon Ingram

New Orleans receives:
Keldon Johnson
Zach Collins
2027 second (via Charlotte)
2028 second (via Denver, if 34-60)

The trade does not bring back a first but it does have New Orleans add the 25-year-old Johnson and a backup center in Collins. Johnson averaged a career-high 22 points in 2022-23 but has seen his scoring and minutes decline this season.

Denver receives:
Daniel Theis
2030 second (via New Orleans or Orlando)

New Orleans receives:
Cash considerations

In this deal, moving Theis to Denver is about getting under the luxury tax. Because Denver does not have a second-round pick or the rights to a player selected in the draft, $110,000 is being sent from the Nuggets. The trade saves New Orleans nearly $20 million.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• Their own first-round picks in the next seven years

• The right to swap first-round picks with Milwaukee in 2026

Other notable draft assets:

• The lesser of their own or Milwaukee (if 5-30) in 2027

• Three future second-round picks

Other notes:

• The Dejounte Murray trade hard-capped New Orleans at the first apron. They are $3.8 million below.

• New Orleans has three trade exceptions ($12.8M, $9.9M and $4.7M). They are not allowed to use it if the acquiring salary pushes them over the first apron.

• Trey Murphy III has a poison pill restriction. His incoming salary counts as $23.4 million and outgoing $5.1 million.

Phoenix Suns

Recent transactions:

• Traded their 2031 unprotected first-round pick to Utah for three first-rounders: 2025 least favorable of Cleveland, Minnesota and Utah (if 1-10); 2027 least favorable of Cleveland, Minnesota and Utah; 2029 least favorable of Cleveland, Minnesota (6-30) and Utah.

• Traded Josh Okogie and three second-round picks (2026 via Denver, 2031 via Denver and 2031 own) to Charlotte for Nick Richards and a 2025 second (via Denver)

Keep an eye on: First-round picks acquired from Utah, Jusuf Nurkic, Bradley Beal and Grayson Allen

Phoenix took an unorthodox approach with what had been its lone tradable first-round pick. Instead of dangling the 2031 unprotected first to include in a Beal or Nurkic trade, the Suns turned the pick into multiple first-rounders.

The three first-round picks give Phoenix the option to make multiple ones. Finding a trade for Beal or Nurkic will require creativity, as Phoenix is not allowed to aggregate contracts, use more than 100% of the Traded Player Exception or send out cash.

The Suns have 78% of their payroll tied up in paying Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Beal and Nurkic. Beal has a no trade clause (more on that below) while Nurkic will be paid $18.1 million this season and $19.4 million next season. He has been replaced in the rotation by Mason Plumlee and Nick Richards.

Beal is one of two players (LeBron James is the other) who has a no trade clause. The clause was negotiated into his contract while he played for Washington in 2022. He has $111 million left on his contract after this season and has the right to approve any trade. (His agent Mark Bartelstein indicated to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst that he would never give up the no trade clause if he were moved again.)

Grayson Allen signed a four-year, $70 million extension last April and is shooting 42.4% from 3. The addition of Tyus Jones and Beal’s recent move to the bench have cut into Allen’s playing time. He’s averaging 10 fewer minutes per game than last season.

The Suns face the same restrictions next season if their roster stays intact. Phoenix has nine players under contract and could top $500 million in salary and luxury tax. The Suns’ 2032 first-round pick starting in June is not available because they are over the second apron this season.

Two trades that work

Phoenix receives:
P.J. Tucker
Bones Hyland

LA Clippers receive:
Jusuf Nurkic
2027 least favorable first of Cleveland, Minnesota, Utah

Phoenix receives:
Gary Harris
Cory Joseph
2025 first from Denver (if 6-30)

Orlando receives:
Grayson Allen
Monte Morris

These two separate trades would get Phoenix below both aprons next season and give the Suns two first-round picks in this year’s draft. The trade saves the Suns over $200 million in salary and luxury tax penalties next season.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2029 least favorable first-round pick of Cleveland, Minnesota (if 6-30) and Utah

Other notable draft assets:

2025 first-round pick (via Cleveland)
2027 least favorable first-round pick of Cleveland, Minnesota and Utah
2025 second-round pick (via Denver)

Other notes:

• Phoenix has an open roster spot.

• The Suns are projected to pay a combined $382 million in salary and luxury tax, the largest in NBA history.

• They have a $3.25 million trade exception. They are allowed to use the exception despite being over the second apron.

Sacramento Kings

Keep an eye on: Kevin Huerter, Trey Lyles and future draft picks

We can question the manner in which Mike Brown was fired as coach but there is no doubt the Kings’ season turned around in late December.

Since Brown was replaced with Doug Christie, Sacramento ranks fourth in offensive efficiency, 11th defensively and has the fifth-best record.

The turnaround has not catapulted Sacramento into the top six of the Western Conference but the Kings are in contention for a play-in spot.

How the Kings proceed closer to the Feb. 6 trade deadline will be decided by how much more draft capital they are willing to surrender and if lottery pick Devin Carter is untouchable.

The previous seven trades have cost Sacramento one first (2023), the right to swap first-round picks (2031) and six seconds. They owe Atlanta a 2025 top-12 protected first from the 2022 trade to acquire Kevin Huerter.

Huerter’s $17.4 million contract is the Kings’ largest tradable salary outside of their core four players: Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, DeMar DeRozan and Malik Monk. After starting 96% of the regular-season games the past two seasons, Huerter has been relegated to coming off the bench. He is shooting a career-low 30.9% from 3. Huerter is under contract through 2025-26 with an $18.8 million salary.

Lyles is on an expiring $8 million salary and is averaging 6.9 points. He has $1.2 million in unlikely bonuses that count toward the apron.

One trade that works

Sacramento receives:
Cameron Johnson

Brooklyn receives:
Kevin Huerter
Devin Carter
2027 top-14 protected first

The trade for Johnson helps but has future implications. Johnson is on a team-friendly contract ($22.5 million, $20.5 million and $22.5 million) and is averaging career highs in points (19.3), field goal percentage (49.1%) and 3-point percentage (43.2%). However, because his contract stretches into the 2026-27 season, Sacramento could be a luxury tax team if Keegan Murray and Fox sign extensions this summer. They have some flexibility with the partially guaranteed salary of DeRozan.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• The Kings owe Atlanta a top-12 protected first-round pick in 2025.

• They are allowed to trade their own first beginning two years after the conditions are met. If conveyed, the first is top-10 protected in 2026.

Other notable draft assets:

• The right to swap first-round picks in 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030

• Two future second-round picks

• Sacramento can trade a conditional 2026 and 2027 second-round pick. However, if the first to Atlanta in 2025 or 2026 is not conveyed, the Hawks would receive both seconds.

Other notes:

• Sacramento has an open roster spot, is $3.2 million below the luxury tax and $7 million below the first apron.

• The Kings have five exceptions available ($12.8M, $6.3M, $5.9M, $4.8M and $4.7M)

Tier 2: The wild cards

Atlanta Hawks

Keep an eye on: GM Landry Fields

As the team’s general manager, Fields is tasked with answering this question before the deadline: What version of this roster does he trust?

There is the team that went 7-1 in late November and early December, a stretch that included wins against Cleveland (twice), New York, Milwaukee and the Lakers. In those eight games, Atlanta ranked ninth in defensive efficiency. After an ensuing three-game losing streak (Milwaukee, San Antonio, Memphis), the Hawks won their next four games. This season, the Hawks are 4-1 against Boston and Cleveland.

Then there is the team that went 1-4 on a road trip in early January. The Hawks lost by double digits in three of those games (Denver, Lakers and Clippers). They gave up an average of 128 points in the four losses.

Despite not controlling their own first until 2028, Atlanta has three first-round picks acquired in prior trades, including an unprotected first from the Lakers in June. The Hawks also have $33 million in the expiring contracts of Clint Capela and Larry Nance Jr. Before breaking his right hand Dec. 28, Nance was playing his best basketball, averaging 11.2 points and 7.6 rebounds in the five games before the injury.

One trade that works

Atlanta receives:
Tre Jones

San Antonio receives:
Larry Nance Jr.

The addition of Jones improves an Atlanta team that ranks 25th in turnovers and has allowed the fifth most points off turnovers per game. Last season in San Antonio, Jones ranked in the top-10 in assist-to-turnover ratio. Jones’ minutes have decreased this season due to a sprained right ankle early in the campaign and the additions of Chris Paul, Stephon Castle. He is averaging the fewest minutes since his rookie season in 2020-21.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2025 unprotected first-round pick (via Los Angeles Lakers)

• 2027 less favorable (if 5-30) from Milwaukee or New Orleans

Other notable draft assets:

• 2025 top-12 protected first-round pick from Sacramento

• Six future second-round picks

Other notes

• The Hawks are $1.3 million below the luxury tax.

• They have four exceptions ($25.3M, $10.6M, $4.7M and $3.7M) available in a trade. However, they are $5.3 million below the first apron and not allowed to exceed the threshold.

• Jalen Johnson signed a rookie extension before the season and has a poison pill restriction. Johnson can still be traded but his incoming salary counts as $25.8 million and outgoing $4.5 million.

Chicago Bulls

Keep an eye on: Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine and their 2025 first-round pick

The Bulls should be in the dealmaker tier. However, the last time Chicago made an in-season trade was 2021, when it sent Wendell Carter Jr. and two future first-round picks (which became Franz Wagner and Jett Howard) to the Magic in a trade for All-Star big man Vucevic.

Four years later, Chicago is wondering whether it should reset its roster, including trading away Vucevic. But would the Bulls trade their second-leading scorer if the return brings back a combination of a first-round pick, expiring contracts and a young player?

Chicago could be better served to wait until the summer, when Vucevic enters the last year of his contract. He’s averaging 20.3 points and career highs in field goal percentage (55.9%) and 3-point percentage (44%).

LaVine’s trade prospects should be different this year. Instead of being seen as an albatross contract (yes, he is still owed $94 million after this season), LaVine is quietly having the most efficient season of his career. He joined Michael Jordan and DeMar DeRozan as the only Bulls to have five straight 30-point games.

LaVine ranks fifth in the NBA in 3-point field goal percentage and is shooting a career-high 51.5% from the field. After playing only 25 games last season, LaVine is on pace to play more than 70 games for only the second time in nine seasons.

Chicago owes San Antonio its first-round pick this season if it falls outside of the top 11. If the first is not sent, San Antonio will receive a 2026 or 2027 top-8 protected first.

The Bulls are in the last play-in spot, ahead of Philadelphia.

Two trades that work

Golden State receives:
Nikola Vucevic
Torrey Craig

Chicago receives:
Dennis Schroder
Kevon Looney
2025 top-14 protected first

There is no urgency to move Vucevic, considering he is under contract next season. The Bulls shouldn’t pass on a deal that gets them a first-round pick instead of multiple seconds (Golden State has only two). The pick remains top-14 protected in 2026 if not conveyed.

Chicago receives:
Khris Middleton
Bobby Portis
2031 top-2 protected first-round pick

Milwaukee receives:
Zach LaVine

Toronto receives:
MarJon Beauchamp
Cash considerations

Houston receives:
Delon Wright
Cash considerations

LaVine is having a career year and Milwaukee is in win-now mode. This deal adds scoring punch for a team that has climbed out of its early funk but still trails the other elite offenses in the East. The Raptors and Rockets are included because Milwaukee needs to go below the second apron to aggregate contracts. LaVine is waiving his trade bonus to make the deal work.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• Own first-round pick starting two years after the conditions to San Antonio are met.

Other notable draft assets:

• 2025 top-14 protected first-round pick from Portland. (Because the first is likely not to convey this season, Chicago will receive a top-14 protected first from the Trail Blazers next year.)

• Five second-round picks

Other notes:

• The Bulls are $4.5 million below the luxury tax and triggered the first apron when they signed Jalen Smith to more than $5.2 million of the non-tax midlevel exception.

• If LaVine were traded Feb. 6, the Bulls would owe him a $9.4 million trade bonus. The bonus is evenly added to his salary this season and next season.

Dallas Mavericks

Keep an eye on: First-round draft capital

The defending Western Conference champions face a decision at the deadline.

When healthy, the Mavericks are a top-4 team in the West. Dallas is 6-1 with the starting lineup of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington and Dereck Lively II. They are plus-25.6 points per 100 possessions with that group, but it has played just 6% of total possessions. Since Doncic went out due to a calf injury on Christmas Day, Dallas is 5-11 and in danger of falling into the play-in mix. The Mavs’ frontcourt has taken a hit with injuries to Maxi Kleber and Lively. Both players are expected to miss extended time.

Don’t be surprised if GM Nico Harrison makes a move before the deadline. He has made deals at three consecutive deadlines, adding Irving, Washington and Daniel Gafford. And a month after reaching the NBA Finals, Dallas added Klay Thompson, Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall.

Harrison has made 14 trades since he was hired in 2021, sending out two first-round picks, 12 second-rounders and two years of pick swaps.

Despite sending a 2024 first to New York as part of the Kristaps Porzingis trade, Dallas is allowed to trade or swap its 2025 first. The Mavericks can also trade a 2031 first. One thing to watch is the Mavericks taking back more salary if a trade were to occur. Dallas is $526K below the first apron and is not allowed to exceed it.

One trade that works

New Orleans receives:
Dante Exum
Cash considerations

Dallas receives:
Javonte Green

This trade is contingent on New Orleans making a separate trade to drop below the luxury tax to take back the $1 million in additional salary of Exum. Green is shooting a career-high 38.5% from 3, while Exum has not played this season because of a right wrist injury. The Pelicans are acquiring Exum with part of their $9.9 million trade exception.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2025 and 2031 first-round picks

Other notable draft assets:

• The right to swap first-round picks in 2025, 2026 and 2031

• Two second-round picks in 2025

Other notes:

• Dallas is $5.3 million over the luxury tax and projected to pay a $7.7 million penalty.

• Thompson, Marshall and Irving all have a trade bonus. The Mavericks have four trade exceptions available ($16.2M, $4.7M, $4.3M and $4M). Because of the first apron, they are not allowed to use any in a trade if the post-transactional salary leaves them over.

Indiana Pacers

Keep an eye on: Myles Turner and Obi Toppin

A year ago, an Eastern Conference executive told me that Indiana was the model of roster building under the new CBA.

The Pacers had two future max players (Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam) and 13 players earning between $2 million and $20 million. A year later, the same roster that reached the Eastern Conference finals is below the luxury tax and first apron.

Looking toward this summer, the financial model of roster building that was lauded will get tested. The Pacers are not a luxury tax team in 2025-26 and still have no player earning more than $20 million other than Siakam and Haliburton.

But with starting center Myles Turner a free agent and Bennedict Mathurin rookie extension eligible, the cost to keep the roster together the next two years gets expensive.

Not including Turner and their first-round pick, the Pacers will be $20 million below the luxury tax in July. The following season, they are $37 million below the tax without Turner and Mathurin. If both players are signed, the Pacers — barring a trade — could be a luxury tax team in consecutive seasons.

Indiana has three options at the deadline. First, the Pacers could do nothing and wait until the offseason. After a sluggish start to the season, Indiana is in contention for a top-6 seed.

The second is to address its financial issues and explore options to trade Turner. Because his contract was renegotiated and then extended two seasons, he is an unrestricted free agent. Turner is averaging 15 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.1 blocks. The Pacers are already without backups James Wiseman and Isaiah Jackson. Both suffered season-ending torn Achilles injuries.

The third is to shed the $45 million owed to Toppin in the next three three seasons. Toppin is averaging double-digit points for a second consecutive season.

One trade that works

Indiana receives:
Rui Hachimura
2029 top-5 protected first from the Lakers

Los Angeles Lakers receive:
Myles Turner

Toronto receives:
Jalen Hood-Schifino
2029 second from Portland

The trade does not help the Pacers now but gives them flexibility next offseason and a highly coveted, lightly protected first from the Lakers in 2029. Because the Lakers cannot take back more salary than sent out and Indiana is close to the luxury tax, Hood-Schifino is included and traded to Toronto.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2028 first-round pick. (Because Indiana owes Toronto a 2026 top-4 protected first, the earliest the Pacers can trade a first is two years after the pick is conveyed.)

Other notable draft assets:

• The right to swap first-round picks in every year except 2026 and 2027

• Nine future second-round picks

Other notes

• The trade to acquire backup center Thomas Bryant in December left Indiana $147K below the luxury tax.

• T.J. McConnell signed an extension in the offseason and is not allowed to be traded.

• Indiana has four exceptions: $12.8M, $4.7M, $2.2M and $1.1M. However, using an exception pushes Indiana over the luxury tax.

Golden State Warriors

Recent transaction:

• Acquired Dennis Schroder, a 2025 second-round pick (via Miami) from Brooklyn for De’Anthony Melton, Reece Beekman and three seconds (2026 via Atlanta, 2028 via Atlanta, 2029 own)

Keep an eye on: The luxury tax

Stephen Curry gave a glimpse of the reality of Golden State faces at the deadline.

“Desperate trades or desperate moves that deplete the future, there is a responsibility on allowing or keeping the franchise in a good space and good spot when it comes to where we leave this thing when we’re done,” Curry said earlier this month.

After starting the season 12-3, Golden State is 10-20 and closer to having its season end in mid-April than competing for a championship in early June.

Curry’s comments do not mean Golden State won’t be active at the trade deadline.

“What you’re really trying to do is see if you can make some moves at the margins that can help your current team,” coach Steve Kerr told ESPN’s Ohm Youngmisuk on Jan. 20. “We are going to do everything we can to be as competitive as possible, to put the best team around Steph as possible without mortgaging the future, and that is the right decision.”

Golden State has up to three tradable first-round picks and $40 million in expiring contracts. The Warriors also have soon-to-be restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga and former draft picks Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis. They are $330K below the first apron and not allowed to exceed the threshold.

The Warriors could make a trade but likely not the needle-moving type that can turn them back into a championship team.

Because they are $6 million over the luxury tax, the Warriors can look to trade the expiring contracts of Gary Payton II ($9.1M) or Kevon Looney ($8M). The Warriors have up to two seconds and are allowed to include up to $3.6 million in cash.

Trading either player would get them under the luxury tax for only the third time in 10 seasons.

One trade that works

Detroit receives:
Kevon Looney

Golden State receives:
2029 second (if 56-60)

Trading Looney helps financially but not on the court. The Warriors are $6 million above the luxury tax, and this trade would get them under because his expiring $8 million salary is sent to Detroit.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2025 and 2027 own first-round picks

Other notable draft assets:

• The right to swap a first-rounder in the next seven years.

• Two seconds in 2025 (via Miami) and 2031 (own or Minnesota).

• The Warriors could also trade a conditional second-round pick in 2030. However, the Wizards receive the pick if the first-rounder owed to them by Golden State in 2030 (top-20 protected) is not conveyed.

Other notes:

• Golden State has an open roster spot. Because of the apron restriction, the Warriors are allowed to sign a 15th player starting March 18.

• Moody has a poison pill restriction. For trade purposes, his incoming salary counts as $10.8 million and outgoing $5.8 million.

Los Angeles Lakers

Recent transaction:

• Traded D’Angelo Russell, Maxwell Lewis, three second-round picks (2027, 2030, 2031) to Brooklyn for Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton

Keep an eye on: First-round picks and Christian Wood

The addition of Finney-Smith accomplished two goals off the court. It gave the team more flexibility below the second apron, and, more importantly, it preserved its first-round picks (2029 and 2031) that are available to trade. The Lakers can also swap first-round picks in five different years.

A two-step process is next. The first should be opening a roster spot. That could come at the expense of Wood, who was signed to a two-year veteran minimum contract last season but hasn’t played since last February. The Lakers would save $11 million toward the luxury tax if Wood were traded and have $6.5 million in room below the second apron.

The second is for GM Rob Pelinka to determine if the return of Jarred Vanderbilt plugs a hole in the frontcourt, or if there’s a center they can acquire. The Lakers are allowing the third-most points in the paint and the fifth-most second-chance points.

In an interview with ESPN’s Shams Charania, Anthony Davis stressed that the Lakers need another big. “I feel like I’ve always been at my best when I’ve been the 4, having a big out there.”

Davis has played 96% of his minutes at center this season. In the title-winning 2019-20 season, he played 40% of his minutes at center.

Before the season, Pelinka made it clear that their first-round picks were in play.

“We would do a trade with both picks if that would lead to sustained Lakers excellence,” Pelinka said. “We would also use one pick to make a marginal upgrade if we felt like it was the right thing to do.”

Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent and Rui Hachimura have salaries between $10.7 million to $17 million. Vanderbilt is owed $37 million after this season, and Vincent and Hachimura are under contract through 2025-26.

Two trades that work

Los Angeles Lakers receive:
Myles Turner

Indiana receives:
Rui Hachimura
2029 top-5 protected first

Toronto receives:
Jalen Hood-Schifino
2029 second from Portland

There is certainly a risk-reward with acquiring Turner. The risk comes with the Lakers having one future first-round pick to trade. Turner is also a pending free agent and could leave this summer. (The Lakers can sign Turner and exceed the cap in the offseason.) But the reward is Turner can complement Davis. Turner is shooting a career-high 39.3% from 3 and averaging almost two blocks per game.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2029 and 2031 unprotected firsts

Other notable draft assets:

• The right to swap first-round picks in 2026, 2028, 2029, 2030 and 2031

• Two future seconds

Other notes:

• LeBron James has a no trade clause

New York Knicks

Keep an eye on: Bench depth and Mitchell Robinson

The Knicks overhauled their roster with the addition of Mikal Bridges in July and then traded for Karl-Anthony Towns before training camp.

New York has the third-best offense and is in the top four of the Eastern Conference.

But New York should be concerned about the workload of its starting five. Bridges and Josh Hart lead the league in total minutes played and New York is the only team with five players in the top 32. As a result, the Knicks’ reserves rank last in minutes per game.

Robinson’s potential return would strengthen the Knicks’ bench. If he can return before the Feb. 6 trade deadline (he continues to rehab offseason ankle surgery), New York will have to decide whether he has more value playing with the current roster or in a trade.

Because they are below the second apron, the Knicks are allowed to aggregate Robinson’s $14.3 million salary with another player. However, because of the second apron, the Knicks are not allowed to take back more than $535K in salary.

One trade that works

New York receives:
Guerschon Yabusele

Philadelphia receives:
Jericho Sims
2025 first-round pick (more favorable of Boston, Memphis)
2028 second (less favorable of Indiana and Phoenix)

The addition of Yabusele strengthens the Knicks’ frontcourt and improves their bench. Yabusele is averaging 10 points and 5.3 rebounds in 26 minutes for a struggling Sixers team.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2025 top-10 protected first from Washington. The first is top-9 protected in 2026. If not conveyed, New York will receive a 2026 and 2027 second from the Wizards.

• The right to swap first-round picks in 2026 and 2030.

Other notable draft assets:

• Eight second-round picks between 2025 and 2028

Other notes:

• The Knicks have an open roster spot but are not allowed to sign a player until March 1.

• New York is $17.5 million over the luxury tax and is projected to pay a $36.3 million penalty.

• Ariel Hukporti has a Feb. 5 trade restriction.

• Landry Shamet cannot be traded because he signed a contract in late December.

Orlando Magic

Keep an eye on: Future spending

The Magic have built their roster organically, opting not to take shortcuts with trades.

Out of the 15 players on the roster, 13 were drafted or signed as free agents. Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris were acquired at the 2021 deadline. Along with those two, Orlando spent $550 million in contracts last offseason for Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Goga Bitadze, and Moritz Wagner.

There is a strong likelihood that number will top $800 million this summer when Paolo Banchero signs a five-year, $249 million max extension. As a result, Orlando can’t take back additional salary in future years. The Magic could be headed for the luxury tax for the first time since 2010-11.

The organization also doesn’t know what this roster is capable of when healthy. Because of injuries to Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando has used 13 different starting lineups.

If the Magic were to make a deal, it would be to strengthen their perimeter scoring. The Magic rank last in 3-point shooting.

Orlando has 12 players earning between $2 million to $12.9 million, including Harris ($7.5M) and Cole Anthony ($12.9M).

Isacc has a $25 million contract that decreases to $15 million next season, making him more valuable in a future trade. The remaining two years are non-guaranteed.

One trade that works

Phoenix receives:
Cole Anthony
2025 first (from Denver; if 6-30)
2027 second (via Boston)

Orlando receives:
Grayson Allen

Acquiring Allen helps the Magic from beyond the arc. In the past two seasons, the guard shot 46.1% and 42.8% from 3-point range and is under contract through the 2027-28 season.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2025 top-5 protected first from Denver. In the scenario where the first is not conveyed this season, Orlando will receive the Nuggets’ 2026 top-5 protected or 2027 top-5 protected first.

Other notable draft assets:

• Their own first-round pick in the next seven years

• The more favorable first-round swap of their own and less favorable swap of Phoenix and Washington (if 1-8). (For example, the Suns, Wizards and Magic have the Nos. 4, 6 and 25 picks in the first round. The Wizards would select No. 4, Orlando No. 6 and Phoenix No. 25.

• 12 second-round picks, including eight in the next four years

Other notes:

• The Magic are $20.5 million below the luxury tax. They have an $8 million exception.

• Carter signed an extension in the offseason and cannot be traded.

• Franz Wagner and Suggs signed rookie extensions and have poison pill restrictions. Wagner’s incoming salary counts as $36.7 million and outgoing $7 million. Suggs’ incoming salary counts as $26.6 million and outgoing $9.2 million.

Portland Trail Blazers

Keep an eye on: The veterans, Duop Reath and Jabari Walker

It was almost a year ago when Trail Blazers GM Joe Cronin gave his vision of the roster.

“I want to give these guys a chance to grow and develop and not overly swing here in order to chase a playoff spot that’s unrealistic or a playoff spot that’s going to get us thumped right away,” Cronin said after the 2024 trade deadline. “I want to make sure this is a quality build that’s very sustainable.”

The youngest roster in the NBA is not in contention for a play-in spot but has made progress in developing Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Kris Murray, Donovan Clingan and Toumani Camara.

Those five players and forward Deni Avdija fit the timeline of a rebuilding Portland roster.

Avdija was acquired last June during the draft but that was the only trade Portland made involving a player since Damian Lillard was sent to Milwaukee ahead of the 2023-24 season; Jrue Holiday was then flipped to the Celtics shortly after.

The Trail Blazers continue to be in a unique situation while developing their young draft picks with nearly half the roster consisting of veterans — Deandre Ayton, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams III, Jerami Grant and Matisse Thybulle.

Grant’s playoff experience and his ability to play a position of need should make him the most viable trade candidate of the group.

Unlike Wizards forward and fellow trade candidate Kyle Kuzma, whose contract decreases each season, Grant’s salary increases and thus makes it more difficult to trade. (He has a $36.4 million salary in the last year of his contract, when he will be 33.) On the court, he is having the second-worst statistical season of his career, shooting less than 40% from the field while on track to play fewer than 65 games for a third consecutive season.

Two names not mentioned, Duop Reath and Jabari Walker, have trade value because of their contract ($2 million each) and production.

Walker doubled his minutes from 11.1 in his rookie year to 23.6 last season. He scored in double digits 28 times and racked up 16 double-digit rebounds performances. Walker is averaging a career-low 10 minutes per game and is a restricted free agent. The 6-foot-9 Reath averaged nine points and shot 35.9% from 3 last season. He has played only 19 games this season, averaging 11 minutes less than last season.

One trade that works

Portland receives:
Jock Landale
2025 second-round pick (less favorable of Houston and OKC)
2026 second-round pick (most favorable of OKC, Dallas and Philadelphia)
2027 second-round pick (via Memphis)

Houston receives:
Robert Williams III

In this trade, the goal is to ask for a future first from Houston, but Williams’ injury history downgraded his value to three seconds. The contract for Landale in the next two seasons is non-guaranteed.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• The 2029 most and least favorable first-rounders of their own, Boston and Milwaukee

Other notable draft assets:

• The right to swap first-round picks with Milwaukee in 2028 and 2030

• Six future second-round picks

Other notes:

• The Trail Blazers are $3.7 million below the luxury tax.

• Portland has three exceptions ($12.8M, $6.9M, $4.7M)

San Antonio Spurs

Keep an eye on: The timeline around Wembanyama

San Antonio should be excited about its roster.

The veteran presence of Chris Paul and All-NBA play of Victor Wembanyama helped the Spurs reach .500 in mid-January, the latest into a season they’ve done so since April 2021. San Antonio was 31 games below .500 at the trade deadline last season.

The Spurs are competing for a play-in spot and have the resources to be aggressive at the deadline.

San Antonio has 12 first-round picks over the next seven years and the right to swap first-round picks in three different years. They also have a league-high 20 second-round picks. Besides the haul of draft picks, there is financial flexibility with the roster currently and in the future. No player on the roster earns more than $30 million this season, and San Antonio is one of the few teams to have cap space this summer.

The unlimited resources should come with tepid cautiousness at the deadline, however. The Spurs are in the early to middle stage of learning what players fit around Wembanyama and should not be eager to offer their draft assets.

The big-picture approach should call for San Antonio to use the remaining regular-season games (and perhaps the play-in) to evaluate the roster and take a more aggressive approach this summer.

One trade that works

San Antonio receives:
Brandon Ingram
Daniel Theis

New Orleans receives:
Zach Collins
Keldon Johnson
2027 second-round pick (via Charlotte)
2028 second-round pick (via Denver if 34-60)

The addition of Ingram would give San Antonio another building block to pair with Wembanyama. The Spurs have the future financial flexibility to sign Ingram to an extension after the trade or in free agency. More importantly, the trade does not cost San Antonio one of its future first-round picks.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2025 and 2027 unprotected first-round picks from Atlanta

• The right to swap first-round picks with Atlanta in 2026

Other notable draft assets:

• 2025 top-10 protected first from Chicago. If the pick is not conveyed, San Antonio will receive a top-8 protected first in either 2026 or 2027.

• The right to swap first-round picks in 2028 (Boston if 2-30), 2030 (Dallas or Minnesota if 2-30) and 2031 (Sacramento)

• 2031 unprotected first from Minnesota

Other notes:

• San Antonio is $21 million below the luxury tax.

• The Spurs have a $3.2 million exception available to acquire a player in a trade.

Tier 3: Watching the bottom line

Boston Celtics

Keep an eye on: Jaden Springer, an open roster spot and future first-round picks

There are financial and basketball components to how the Celtics approach the deadline.

Trading Springer’s $4 million expiring contract and a future second-round pick (they are not allowed to trade cash) would help alleviate their luxury tax penalty. The Celtics’ tax bill would decrease from $65.6 million to $50.5 million if Springer were traded.

Boston would also have two open roster spots available. Because the Celtics are over the second apron, they are not allowed to sign a player waived who had a pre-existing salary of $12.8 million. For example, Boston would not be allowed to sign Bruce Brown Jr. if Toronto waived him.

The Celtics took a flier on Springer last February, trading a future second-round pick to Philadelphia for the former first-round pick. He has played less than 200 minutes since the trade but had four steals in a recent win against the Clippers.

On the court, can Boston improve its roster without trading a player? Unlike other second-apron teams (Milwaukee, Minnesota and Phoenix), Boston can trade multiple first-rounders. The Celtics are allowed to trade a maximum of three first-round picks in the next seven years (2025, 2027 and 2031).

Despite being over the second apron, Boston is allowed to trade for a player on a veteran minimum exception.

One trade that works

Boston receives:
Toumani Camara

Portland receives:
Jaden Springer
2025 first-round pick
2030 second-round pick

In any potential Springer trade, the Celtics should be thinking about how they can add a wing who guards multiple positions while also saving money. Camara is averaging 9.6 points and ranks in the 85th percentile in steals among wings, per Cleaning the Glass.

The Celtics are projected to spend close to $500 million next season and Camara gives them an inexpensive option. He has a $2.2 million non-guaranteed salary next season and $2.4 million team option in 2026-27. The Trail Blazers would acquire Springer with part of their $6.9 million trade exception.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2031 first-round pick

Other notable draft assets:

• 2025 and 2027 first-round picks

• The right to swap first-round picks in every season except 2028 and 2030

• Six second-round picks, including three in the next two years

Other notes

• Because the Celtics are a second-apron team, they are not allowed to aggregate contracts sent out in a trade or use more than 100% of the Traded Player Exception.

• Jayson Tatum signed a supermax extension in July and cannot be traded.

• Luke Kornet re-signed with Boston in the offseason. Kornet has veto power on any trade because he signed a one-year contract.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Keep an eye on: The luxury tax

It is hard to argue that the front office should tweak the roster.

The Cavaliers have the best record in the Eastern Conference, so it makes sense to wait until after the Feb. 6 trade deadline and use the buyout market to fill their final roster spot.

However, the deadline is not just about adding to the roster but getting current and future finances in order. The Cavaliers are $1.9 million over the luxury tax and — because Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen signed extensions this season — are $4.5 million over the luxury tax next season.

By getting under the tax threshold, Cleveland receives a projected $18 million distribution and pauses the luxury tax clock. A team in the luxury tax four years in a row pays a significant tax penalty.

The team has to balance getting under the tax while not negatively impacting the roster and disrupting locker room chemistry.

Cleveland has 10 players earning between $1.9 million and $16.6 million.

One trade that works

Cleveland receives:
Cody Martin

Charlotte receives:
Isaac Okoro

The Okoro-for-Martin trade threads the needle on not taking a step back on the court and dropping below the luxury tax. Okoro is ninth on the roster in minutes played while Martin is averaging a career-high eight points in Charlotte.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2031 unprotected first

Other notable draft assets:

• The right to swap first-round picks in 2030 and 2031

• Eight future second-round picks, including five in the next three seasons

Other notes:

• Jarrett Allen has a Feb. 2 trade restriction.

• Evan Mobley signed a rookie extension in July and has a poison pill restriction. Mobley can still be traded but his incoming salary counts as $37.4 million and outgoing $11.2 million.

• The Cavaliers can use a $12.8 million exception in a trade. Using the exception further puts them into the luxury tax. They are not allowed to use more than $3.9 million because of the first apron.

LA Clippers

Keep an eye on: Bones Hyland and P.J. Tucker

The Clippers acquired Hyland from Denver two years ago hoping the former first-round pick could provide backcourt depth. Instead, Hyland is playing the fewest minutes of his career.

The Clippers are $2.5 million above the luxury tax and there is a path to get under if they trade Hyland along with a future second-round pick or cash.

Prior to this season, the Clippers spent $232 million in luxury tax penalties. By getting under, the team would receive a $16 million tax distribution. Hyland has $1.4 million left on his contract at the time of the deadline.

The last time Tucker played was in Game 6 of the Clippers’ first-round loss to Dallas. When the Clippers could not find a trade partner last summer, both sides agreed Tucker would not be with the team this season. The 39-year-old is owed $4.2 million of his $11 million contract as of the deadline.

Considering a trade hasn’t materialized, the best option could be buying out Tucker and then converting two-way player Jordan Miller with the open roster spot. Tucker would be allowed to sign with any team because his salary is below the $12.8 million non-tax midlevel exception.

One trade that works

Toronto receives:
Bones Hyland
Cash considerations

LA Clippers receive:
2025 second (top-54 protected)

Trading Hyland to the Raptors gets the Clippers under the luxury tax. By including cash in the trade, the Clippers preserve their two available seconds to use in a future trade. After paying Hyland his remaining $1.4 million in salary, the Raptors will net $1.6 million.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• The Clippers are allowed to trade their 2031 first-rounder. It’s the only year they can trade a future first.

Other notable draft assets:

• Rights to swap their 2030 and 2031 first-round picks

• Two future second-round picks

Other notes:

• The Clippers are hard-capped at the first apron and not allowed to take back more than $4.8 million of salary in a trade.

• Ivica Zubac signed an extension in October and is not allowed to be traded this season.

• James Harden signed a two-year contract with a player option in July. Because the contract is considered a one-year deal (options do not count) and Harden signed with Bird rights, he is allowed to veto any trade.

Tier 4: The Middle Men

Charlotte Hornets

Recent transaction:

• Traded Nick Richards and a 2025 second (via Denver) to Phoenix for Josh Okogie and three seconds (2026 via Denver, 2031 via Denver and 2031 via Phoenix)

Keep an eye on: Future draft assets and Miles Bridges

Charlotte pivoted a year ago when it traded veterans Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington and Gordon Hayward at the 2024 deadline. The three separate trades brought back two future first-round picks and two seconds. The Hornets added six more second-rounders in three trades this past offseason.

The pick accumulation philosophy continued this season as they recently acquired three first-round picks from Phoenix in exchange for Richards.

Other than LaMelo Ball and Bridges, the Hornets do not have a high-priced veteran for whom a team is willing to trade a first and they don’t have the cap space and trade exception to act as a third team.

The Hornets have 13 players earning between $2 million to $13 million and the financial flexibility to take back salary extending past this season.

Bridges is the longest-tenured member on the Hornets and signed a three-year, $75 million contract last offseason. His $27 million salary this season decreases over the next two years ($25 million and $22.8 million). He is averaging 18 points and a career-high 7.6 rebounds.

Two trades that work

Charlotte receives:
Isaac Okoro
2028 second-round pick
2031 second-round pick

Cleveland receives:
Josh Okogie

Okogie was traded for Richards in mid-January and is allowed to be traded again if his salary is not aggregated with another player. The trade gets Cleveland under the luxury tax and nets the Hornets two additional second-round picks. Okoro has two years of guaranteed money ($11 million and $11.8 million) after this season. Okogie’s salary for next season is non-guaranteed.

Charlotte receives:
Khris Middleton
2031 top-5 protected first-round pick

Milwaukee receives:
Miles Bridges

Trading Bridges for a 2031 first-rounder continues Charlotte’s trend of obtaining future draft capital. Middleton’s $34 million salary next season adds $9 million to the Hornets’ payroll. With $27 million in non-guaranteed contracts (Okogie, Cody Martin and Vasilije Micic), Charlotte is well below the luxury tax, however.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2027 top-2 protected first-round pick from Dallas

Other notable draft assets:

• 2027 top-14 protected first-round pick from Miami (the first becomes unprotected in 2028 if not conveyed in the prior season)

• Nine second-round picks

Other notes:

• The Hornets are $10.4 million below the luxury tax and $17.7 million below the first apron.

• They have a $6.1 million Disabled Player Exception that was created from the season-ending Grant Williams injury. To use the exception, Charlotte would need an open roster spot and the player acquired can not be under contract past this season.

• Seth Curry signed a one-year contract in the offseason. He has veto power on any trade because he has Bird rights as a free agent.

Toronto Raptors

Keep an eye on: Chris Boucher, Bruce Brown Jr. and trade exceptions

A roster transformation has Toronto near the bottom of the standings but with financial flexibility to take back salary at the deadline and add to its 15 draft picks over the next seven years. The Raptors are $10.1 million below the luxury tax and have three trade exceptions ($12.8 million, $1.6 million and $1.4 million) along with an open roster spot.

In addition to financial flexibility, Toronto could explore trading Brown or Boucher, two veterans who are on expiring contracts. Brown missed the first 10 weeks of the season while recovering from knee surgery and returned this month. His $23 million salary is less advantageous than in prior seasons.

Brown, a champion with the Nuggets in 2023, could also explore a buyout. His list of contenders would be limited as he would not be allowed to sign with apron teams — Boston, Denver, Lakers, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New York, Philadelphia and Phoenix.

Boucher is having one of his more efficient seasons and earns half ($10.8 million) of what is owed to Brown. The forward is averaging 10.7 points in 17.5 minutes and has set his season high of 23 points twice this month.

One trade that works

Toronto receives:
Zeke Nnaji
Vlatko Cancar
Swap rights in 2031 (top-5 protected)

Denver receives:
Chris Boucher

The Raptors are gambling that the swap rights in 2031 have more value than inheriting the $23 million owed to Nnaji after this season. The 24-year-old is averaging a career-low 4.5 minutes.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• Own first-round pick in each of the next seven years

• 2027 top-4 protected first-round pick from Indiana

Other notable draft assets:

• Seven future second-round picks

Other notes:

• Scottie Barnes signed a rookie extension and has a poison pill restriction. Barnes can still be traded, but his incoming salary counts as $37.2 million and outgoing $10.1 million.

Utah Jazz

Recent transaction:

• Acquired an unprotected 2031 first from Phoenix for the three first-round picks: 2025 least favorable of Utah (if 1-10), Cleveland and Minnesota; 2027 least favorable of Cleveland, Minnesota and Utah; 2029 least favorable first of Cleveland, Minnesota (if 6-30) and Utah.

Keep an eye on: Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, John Collins

Similar to Toronto, the Jazz are well-positioned below the luxury tax ($27.1 million below) and have an exception ($8 million room) available to use in a trade. The Jazz have 15 players under contract and would need to open a roster spot.

As for the roster, Utah has to address whether Sexton, Clarkson and Collins are more valuable to the young roster (on and off the court) or as trade pieces to pick up additional draft assets. Despite 13 first-round picks in the next seven years, Utah has only three second-round picks.

Sexton has been the most productive and consistent of the three players. On pace to play in at least 75 games for a second consecutive season, he is shooting a career-high 43% from 3 and averaging 18 points. Per Cleaning the Glass, Sexton ranks in the 89th percentile among combo guards in 3-point shooting. He is owed $18.1 million this season and $19.2 million next season. There is $300,000 in unlikely bonuses that count toward the apron.

Clarkson has battled plantar fasciitis in his left foot this season and has missed 10 consecutive games. For a fourth consecutive season, he is shooting below 34% from 3, while having an effective field goal percentage below 50% for a second straight campaign. Clarkson’s salary for this season ($14.1 million) and next ($14.3 million) is slightly higher than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception. He has $309K of unlikely bonuses that count toward the apron.

Collins is averaging 8.0 rebounds or more for the second straight season and would give a playoff team frontcourt depth. The issue is his $26.6 million salary this season and the likelihood he will opt into his deal (also $26.6 million) this summer.

One trade that works

Denver receives:
Drew Eubanks
2031 second-round pick

Utah receives:
Zeke Nnaji
Right to swap first-rounders in 2031 (top-2 protected)

The Jazz acquired a 2031 first from Phoenix and have the right to swap firsts (top-2 protected) from Denver in the same year.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2031 unprotected first from Phoenix

Other notable draft assets:

• 2025 two most favorable first-round picks of own, Cleveland and Minnesota

• 2027 two most favorable first-round picks of own, Cleveland and Minnesota

• 2027 top-4 protected first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers

• 2029 two most favorable first-round picks of own, Cleveland and Minnesota (if 6-30)

• The right to swap first-round picks with Cleveland (2026, 2028) and Minnesota (2026)

Other notes:

• Lauri Markkanen renegotiated and extended his contract in the offseason. He is not allowed to be traded.

Washington Wizards

Keep an eye on: Jonas Valanciunas, Kyle Kuzma and trade exceptions

The Wizards have multiple options at the trade deadline. Because they are $11.6 million below the first apron, Washington can be a third team in a multiteam deal and take back salary. The Wizards have three exceptions ($12.8M, $12.4M and $4.7M).

They can also choose to maximize the value of Valanciunas. The center stands out among the list of Wizards veterans (Malcolm Brogdon, Kuzma, Marvin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes) who are on the roster.

Valanciunas is averaging a career-low 20 minutes per game but has averaged 12 points and 8.0 rebounds. He has two years and $21.4 million left on his contract after this season. Both years are non-guaranteed. His $9.9 million salary this season fits with teams such as the Lakers and Knicks that are over the first apron and cannot take back more salary in a trade.

Kuzma has dealt with injuries this season and is averaging his fewest points since 2020-21. His contract has appeal because it decreases each season ($23.5M, $21.5M and $19.4M).

The Wizards have built their draft assets since Michael Winger took over as president of basketball operations in May 2023. In its past 11 trades, Washington has netted two first-round picks, 12 seconds and four years of pick swaps.

Two trades that work

Washington receives:
Mitchell Robinson
2026 second (less favorable of Detroit, Milwaukee and Orlando)
2028 second (less favorable of Indiana and Phoenix)

New York receives:
Jonas Valanciunas

This trade is about acquiring two future second-round picks and then hoping Robinson can be traded again in the offseason. Robinson had offseason ankle surgery and has not played this season. His $12.9 million contract next season is below the non-tax midlevel exception.

Milwaukee receives:
Kyle Kuzma

Washington receives:
Khris Middleton
2029 least favorable of Oklahoma City or Denver (if 6-30)

There is a $9 million difference in salary, but this trade works because of the Kuzma trade bonus. The Wizards add another first-round pick and get financial relief in 2026-27.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2029 second most favorable first of Boston, Milwaukee and Portland

• The right to swap first-round picks with Phoenix in 2026, 2028 and 2030

Other notable draft assets:

• 17 future second-round picks

Other notes

• The Wizards would owe Kuzma a $7.5 million bonus if he was traded Feb. 6. The bonus would be spread evenly over his salary this season and the next two years. Kuzma also has $4.2 million in unlikely bonuses that count toward the apron.

• Corey Kispert signed a rookie extension and has a poison pill restriction. Kispert can still be traded, but his incoming salary counts as $11.9 million and outgoing $5.7 million.

• In the trade scenario, Malcolm Brogdon is bought out of his contract; the guard is ineligible to sign with teams over the apron.

Tier 5: Contracts to trade but limited in draft picks

Denver Nuggets

Keep an eye on: GM Calvin Booth

Booth played a significant role in building the roster. Four out of the five starters from the team that won the 2023 NBA Finals remain, including three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.

Booth and his front office will face challenges adding to this roster. Denver is limited with tradable contracts. Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon make up 80% of the Nuggets’ salary.

Murray and Gordon are not allowed to be traded because they signed extensions in the offseason. That leaves Porter, Denver’s second-leading scorer, and his $35.9 million salary this season as its biggest trade asset. He is also owed $79 million after this season. Forward Zeke Nnaji has an $8.8 million salary that is appealing, but he is owed $24 million in the next three seasons.

The Nuggets created a $5.2 million trade exception in July. They are allowed to use the exception despite being over the first apron.

Denver took the calculated risk of turning future picks into prospects who could develop into rotational players. The future first-round picks (both going to Oklahoma City) and three seconds traded resulted in Peyton Watson, Hunter Tyson, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett and DaRon Holmes III.

Denver is over the first apron and not allowed to use more than 100% of the traded player exception. The Nuggets are allowed to aggregate the $14 million combined salary of Nnaji and Dario Saric.

One trade that works

Charlotte receives:
Vlatko Cancar
Cash considerations

Denver receives:
Seth Curry

The Nuggets’ lone trade chip is to swap first-round picks in 2031, and that is too rich of a price to acquire Curry. In this deal, Denver is going to send the contract of Cancar and $2 million. Curry and Cancar have a one-year Bird restriction and each has to approve the trade. For the eighth time in nine seasons, Curry is shooting better than 40% from 3.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• The right to swap first-round picks in 2031 (Note: The Nuggets owe Orlando a top-5 protected first in 2025, 2026 or 2027. They will send Oklahoma City a top-5 protected first-round pick two years after the Magic pick is conveyed. They will send an additional first to the Thunder two years after the original first is conveyed. Denver could trade its 2031 first but only if the protection owed to Oklahoma City is eliminated or a team is willing to take the risk of the first not being conveyed.)

Other notable draft assets:

• The lone other draft pick Denver has is a 2028 second-rounder (if 31-33)

Other notes:

• Denver is a luxury tax team for a third straight season and is projected to pay a $20.4 million penalty.

• The Nuggets are $5.1 million below the second apron and are not allowed to exceed it.

Milwaukee Bucks

Keep an eye on: The roster outside of Giannis and Dame

Don’t expect Jon Horst to turn his phone off at the deadline. Since Horst was promoted to GM in June 2017, Milwaukee has made 28 trades. He has acquired Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, Nikola Mirotic, Jrue Holiday, P.J. Tucker, Grayson Allen, Serge Ibaka, Jae Crowder, Damian Lillard and Patrick Beverley. The trades cost Milwaukee seven first-round picks, three years of pick swaps and 18 seconds.

Finding a trade partner to upgrade the roster and maximize the Giannis Antetokounmpo-Lillard partnership presents several obstacles.

“Jon is one of the more aggressive executives because he realizes the goal is to continue putting a championship roster around a once-in-a-lifetime player in Giannis,” one team executive told ESPN. “But like any championship team that continues to push their chips to the middle of the table, you eventually run out of options in how you improve from the outside.”

The Bucks are bottom-heavy in salary with 11 players, starting with Bobby Portis, earning $12.6 million or less in salary. Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez comprise 79% of the Bucks’ payroll this season.

Antetokounmpo and Lillard are not trade candidates, leaving Horst with the expiring contracts of Lopez, Portis and Pat Connaughton as his most valuable assets.

Middleton should have trade value but it is hard to see a team willing to absorb his $34 million contract for next season unless Milwaukee includes its 2031 first-round pick. An acquiring team also has to absorb the $2.3 million in unlikely bonuses that count toward the apron.

Portis is averaging 13.8 points but can be a free agent if his $13.4 million player option is declined. He has a 15% trade bonus valued at $726K if he were moved Feb. 6.

Connaughton is averaging his lowest minutes and points since he joined Milwaukee in 2018-19. He has a $9.4 million player option next season.

Because of the apron rules, Milwaukee is not allowed to take back more money in a trade (unless it is a veteran minimum contract). The Bucks also cannot aggregate contracts sent out if the post-transactional team of Milwaukee is above the second apron.

One trade that works

Milwaukee receives:
Kyle Kuzma

Washington receives:
Khris Middleton
2031 top-8 protected first

The addition of Kuzma gives Milwaukee more length on defense to pair with Antetokounmpo and Lopez in the starting lineup. After back-to-back seasons of over 20 points per game, Kuzma is averaging 14 points and only 28% from 3. He has two years left on his contract after the season. In this deal, the Bucks would save nearly $22 million this season toward the luxury tax.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2031 first-round pick

Other notable draft assets:

• 2031 second-round pick

Other notes:

• Milwaukee is $23 million over the luxury tax and is projected to pay a $75 million penalty. The Bucks are a repeater tax team for the fourth consecutive season.

• The Bucks’ 2032 first is frozen if they finish over the second apron this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Keep an eye on: Julius Randle, 2025 Detroit first and 2025 Utah second

The Timberwolves’ big trade came in the offseason when Karl-Anthony Towns was sent to New York for Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and multiple draft picks.

The trade has brought disappointing and inconsistent results. After reaching the Western Conference finals last year, Minnesota is now trying to avoid the play-in. The Timberwolves rank 21st in offensive efficiency, down 17 spots from last season.

They are also projected to spend a franchise-high $294 million in salary and tax penalty.

“It’s an adjustment, but we want to be winning games while we’re figuring it out,” Randle told ESPN’s Tim MacMahon earlier in January. “We show phases of being able to do that.”

The Timberwolves are plus-2.5 points per 100 points per possession when Randle is on the court with Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert. Last season, they were plus-9.5 points per 100 possessions with Towns.

Finding another trade partner to improve the offense takes creativity and sacrificing a starter, perhaps Randle. The forward has a $33 million salary this season and $30.9 million player option next season.

Randle is allowed to be traded but because of the second apron rules, Minnesota cannot aggregate contracts and use more than 100% of the Traded Player Exception.

Six out of the next seven Timberwolves first-round picks are controlled by Utah and San Antonio. The Timberwolves have two picks that could be in the top-35 of this year’s draft.

From the Towns’ trade, Minnesota acquired a top-13 protected first from Detroit. The Timberwolves also have a second from Utah.

One trade that works

Minnesota receives:
Torrey Craig

Chicago receives:
Leonard Miller
2029 conditional second

Craig is out due to a lower right contusion and right ankle sprain, but this trade is about the second half of the season and into the spring. He has played in 75 postseason games and is shooting 38% from 3.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2025 Detroit top-13 protected first-round pick (top-11 protected in 2026 and top-9 protected in 2027)

• 2025 Utah second-round pick

Other notable draft assets:

• The right to swap first-round picks in 2028

• Three future second-round picks

Other notes:

• Minnesota has a franchise record $202.5 million payroll and is projected to pay a $91 million tax penalty.

• Luka Garza signed a one-year contract in the offseason. Because he has early Bird rights this summer, Garza can veto any trade.

Tier 6: Championship dreams but shouldn’t make a swing

Philadelphia 76ers

Keep an eye on: GM Daryl Morey

Morey is viewed as the ultimate deal maker among team executives.

Since being hired to oversee the 76ers in 2020, he has made 14 trades, including four at last year’s deadline. He made an additional 74 trades during his tenure with the Rockets.

Morey needs to view the deadline this year through a different lens.

Instead of taking an aggressive approach to improve the team, such as trading multiple first-round picks or a player such as KJ Martin or Caleb Martin, Philadelphia should wait until the offseason.

Viewed as the “winner” of the offseason, Philadelphia is in danger of not just missing the playoffs but also the play-in. The 76ers’ first-round pick will go to Oklahoma City if it falls outside of the top-6. They will also send Brooklyn a top-8 protected first-rounder two years after the conditions to Oklahoma City are met.

The 76ers’ disappointing season, coupled with the potential loss of a lottery pick, should have Morey thinking about trading Kelly Oubre, Andre Drummond and even Guerschon Yabusele for draft capital. All three players can be free agents in the offseason (Drummond and Oubre have a player option).

One player who cannot be traded during the regular season is Joel Embiid, who is on pace to play his fewest games since 2016-17.

Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey have played 6% of the 76ers’ total possessions this season. George is having his worst offensive season since 2015-16.

One trade that works

New York receives:
Guerschon Yabusele

Philadelphia receives:
Jericho Sims
2025 more favorable of Boston and Memphis
2028 second (less favorable of Indiana and Phoenix)

Yabusele has been one of the few bright spots this season. But because he signed a one-year contract, the maximum Philadelphia can offer him in the offseason is $2.9 million. The 76ers pick up two second-rounders for a player who likely does not return next season.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2028 Clippers unprotected first-round pick

Other notable draft assets:

• 2026 least favorable first-round pick of Oklahoma City, Houston (if 5-30) and LA Clippers

• 2029 first-round swap rights with the LA Clippers (if 4-30)

• Six future second-round picks

Other notes

• The 76ers have an open roster spot.

• They are $10.4 million over the luxury tax and projected to pay a $16.9 million penalty. The 76ers are $5.9 million below the second apron.

• They are not allowed to use more than 100% of the Traded Player Exception.

• Kyle Lowry signed a one-year contract in the offseason. Because he has Bird rights in the summer, Lowry has the right to veto any trade.

Tier 7: Don’t call us, we’ll call you

Houston Rockets

Keep an eye on: The temptation of the big swing

Houston is in a position to be aggressive at the deadline.

The Rockets are on pace to win more than 50 games, reach the postseason for the first time since 2020 and have a stockpile of blue chip prospects (Tari Eason, Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore), expiring contracts (Steven Adams, Jae’Sean Tate, Jeff Green), enticing first-round picks (the Suns’ 2025 and 2027 unprotected firsts) to chase an All-Star. Houston is also $10.6 million below the luxury tax and has the flexibility to take back additional salary in a trade.

But GM Rafael Stone made it clear in mid-December that Houston is not looking to make changes to its roster.

“Of course, my job is to be open to everything, so I’m not going to not do my job,” Stone told Sirius XM Radio. “[But] we like this team. We definitely do not intend to change anything and I would be shocked if something changes this season.”

Stone is correct. The Rockets should use the remainder of the regular season and playoffs to evaluate the roster and then address needs in the summer.

If the Rockets tweak their roster, Whitmore could become a trade target. Out of the rotation for the first two months of the season, Whitmore averaged 15.9 minutes minutes and 11.7 points in December. However, after a win against Dallas on Jan. 1, a game where he scored 18 points, Whitmore expressed his frustration about his role.

“I really don’t know. I have a lot of question marks for myself, just as you guys do. But yeah, I have no idea. I don’t know what other things I can do,” Whitmore said.

He is under contract through 2026-27 with a team-friendly salary of $3.4 million, $3.5 million and $5.5 million.

One trade that works

Houston receives:
Collin Sexton
Patty Mills

Utah receives:
Jock Landale
Jae’Sean Tate
Four future second-round picks

The Rockets rank 28th in 3-point shooting and get much-needed help from the perimeter without sacrificing a first-round pick. Sexton is averaging a career-high 41.6% from deep this season.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2025 unprotected Phoenix first-round pick

Other notable draft assets:

• 2027 unprotected Phoenix first-round pick

• 2029 more favorable first-round pick of Dallas or Phoenix

Other notes:

• Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun both signed rookie extensions in October, and have a poison pill restriction. Green’s incoming salary counts as $29.5 million and outgoing $12.5 million. Sengun’s incoming salary counts as $31.7 million and outgoing $5.4 million.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Keep an eye on: Future draft picks and Ajay Mitchell

When you have 13 first-round picks and 16 seconds in the next seven years, expect the Thunder to come up in trade rumors.

But why is Oklahoma City different from other franchises?

The Thunder spent nearly $300 million this year on Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. This summer, they could spend an additional $800 million in extensions for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.

Those future salary commitments could prevent the Thunder from any more major moves, beyond continuing to consolidate their first-round picks. (Most recently, the Thunder traded a 2024 protected first to Dallas in exchange for the right to swap picks in 2028.)

On the court, the big in-season addition should be the return of Holmgren. Before the center suffered a pelvic fracture Nov. 10, Oklahoma City had allowed a league-best 98.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Thunder have an open roster spot and the option to take back salary by using their $8 million room midlevel exception or convert Mitchell’s two-way contract. Before injuring his toe, the Thunder were plus-11.8 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court. Mitchell ranks third in minutes played of second-round picks in 2024.

One trade that works

Oklahoma City receives:
2031 Milwaukee unprotected first

Milwaukee receives:
2025 first; (lesser of Oklahoma City, LA Clippers, Philadelphia (if 7-30) and Miami (if 15-30)
2027 first; lesser of own, LA Clippers and Denver (if 6-30)
2029 first; lesser of own and Denver (if 6-30)

This trade follows the trend we have seen from president of basketball operations Sam Presti. The Thunder are swapping three first-round picks that could be in the late 20s for an unprotected first-rounder from Milwaukee in 2031. Keep in mind that the contract of Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo expires after the 2027-28 season.

Top draft assets to use in trades:

• 2025 top-6 protected first from Philadelphia. (If the 76ers retain the first this season, Oklahoma City would then receive a top-4 protected first from Philadelphia in 2026 or 2027 if conveyed in the prior season.)

• 2026 unprotected first from Miami, but only if the Heat do not make the playoffs this season. If the Heat reach the first round, Oklahoma City will receive Miami’s 2025 first.

Other notable draft assets:

• 2026 unprotected first-round pick from the LA Clippers

• The right to swap first-round picks with the LA Clippers or Denver in 2027, and Dallas in 2028

• 16 second-round picks

Other notes

• The Thunder are $10 million below the luxury tax.

Source: espn.com