NBA playoffs intel – Examining Lakers, Warriors, West contenders

All 30 NBA teams have two regular-season games remaining, but there is still plenty left to be decided.

The Eastern Conference seeding is largely sorted out — the top six are virtually locked into place — and lottery races are mostly decided, but the Western Conference playoff picture remains in chaos, with Nos. 3 through 8 separated by just 2 games entering Friday.

And even after the West order is set behind the runaway No. 1 seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, no one knows where that side of the playoff bracket could be headed. “It’s matchup dependent and then it’s rock, paper, scissors from there,” a West executive told ESPN.

As a result, we spent the past week canvassing the league for scouts and executives’ West playoff predictions — from the Los Angeles Lakers’ status as a title contender to how much noise the surging LA Clippers can make to what’s next for the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies after surprising coaching changes.

Jump to a section:
A Lakers issue LeBron or Luka can’t fix
Why Warriors are dangerous right now
Nuggets, Grizz chances after major moves
Teams are ‘going to hate’ facing Houston
Do Clippers and Wolves have a chance?

How the Lakers hide their biggest weakness

play2:54Windhorst: Luka officially became a Laker after return to Dallas

Brian Windhorst weighs in on Luka Doncic’s return to Dallas and why it’s a defining night for him.

The theme of size, and teams who have it vs. teams who don’t, could define this postseason. That’s particularly true for the Lakers, who are running a perimeter-based scheme to fit the talents of their roster. Coach JJ Redick has spent the past two months trying to formulate a strategy to balance the ball sharing of the team’s scorers and mitigate the Lakers lack of interior size.

“Luka [Doncic] historically made his bigs have these great seasons. [James] Harden is the same way — they get centers paid. He’s doing that for [Ivica] Zubac now,” a rival executive said. “The Lakers are asking Rui [Hachimura] and [Dorian] Finney-Smith to play [center] and they’re skill sets are as easy for Luka to elevate. It will come down to whether [Hachimura and Finney-Smith] can make shots.”

L.A.’s lack of a true center is mitigated, in part, by outstanding positional size across the board. Austin Reaves is regularly the Lakers’ smallest player on the court at 6-foot-5. The 6-2 Gabe Vincent and 6-4 Jordan Goodwin — who play with physicality — are the shortest players among Lakers regulars, which is part of how Redick has made up for the lack of traditional rim protection.

The combination of Doncic, LeBron James and Reaves on the perimeter making plays has also been a major boost. Rather than seeing his role diminished behind two ball-dominant superstars, Reaves has played the best basketball of his career since the trade deadline. For instance: Reaves’ 3-point shooting — in volume and efficiency — has improved since Doncic’s debut on Feb. 10.

“The Lakers have more shot creators than most of their competition. That’s a worry when you play them,” one veteran scout said.

Still, there is a lack of individual defensive talent on the roster. Redick has done a tremendous job crafting a system that’s worked during the regular season. But with teams likely to target James, Doncic and Reaves in the playoffs, how will the Lakers deal with that over a potentially two-month playoff grind?

“Luka has to guard somebody, and you can wear him down,” the scout said. “When LeBron is on the weak side, he switches so he doesn’t have to move as much. I’ve seen him do it several times in one possession. In the playoffs you will see teams target LeBron and Luka, put them in the pick-and-roll.

“The thing with LeBron is he’s not going to foul; you can score on him with the right matchup. With the right personnel he could be exposed on defense in the playoffs. He’s amazing, taking nothing from him, but it’s a worry.”

Warriors: ‘I would not want to play them in any round’

When the Warriors first made the Jimmy Butler III trade, coach Steve Kerr plainly stated their goal: Get a top-six seed. For a while, as they won 19 of their first 21 games with Butler and Stephen Curry in the lineup, that plan seemed too conservative. But Kerr said it for a reason as this roster, for all its upside when clicking, has its limitations.

“There’s always time for small ball but their championship teams had positional size,” an East executive said of Golden State. “When they won [titles] they had Andrew Bogut, Kevon Looney, Klay [Thompson] and [Kevin] Durant. The ‘death lineup’ with the small ball only played a handful of minutes. I don’t know if this way they’re playing, so small, works. I’ll be impressed if they can run the table this way.

“To ask Draymond [Green] at his age to [play more at center] is a lot. I won’t be surprised if they go back to Looney more.”

But it’s been obvious that Butler’s arrival has infused this group with a new level of belief — something Curry and Green have spoken publicly about. It harkens back to Curry saying before the season that his goal was to be playing “meaningful” basketball again. Regardless of whether the Warriors are able to get him a fifth title or a seventh trip to the Finals, there’s little doubt that his preseason objective has been achieved.

“The most important thing is their confidence, not their record. People think Steph and Dray don’t need confidence, but they all do. [Andrew] Wiggins didn’t always have that and you could tell. Jimmy has provided that,” a West executive said.

“I would not want to play them in any round.”

Despite coaching change, Jokic and the Nuggets remain a threat

play0:48Nikola Jokic talks about reaction to Michael Malone firing

Nikola Jokic reacts to the firing of Michael Malone after the Nuggets’ 124-116 win over the Kings.

It’s been a dramatic stretch after the Nuggets fired Michael Malone on Tuesday to become the second team in less than two weeks to move on from its head coach. (Denver also decided not to retain general manager Calvin Booth, whose contract was up after this season.)

“At some point you need a new voice, but the front office didn’t do a good job of building out the roster the past couple years outside the top guys,” a West scout said. “I don’t like how they drafted.

“Is it surprising? No. But it’s shocking from a timing standpoint.”

There have been plenty of issues in Denver beyond the behind-the-scenes machinations. Jamal Murray had been playing much better the past few months but is now sidelined again with a hamstring injury. Aaron Gordon, a vital player, has dealt with injury issues. Russell Westbrook’s inconsistencies have reared their head at times, most notably in last week’s wild double-overtime loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves. And Denver’s defense, meanwhile, has plummeted to 22nd since the All-Star break.

And yet Denver, in the eyes of league decision-makers, is still capable of making another deep playoff run for one reason.

“They have [Nikola Jokic],” the scout said. “That automatically gives you a chance.”

Why the Grizz need Ja to step up: ‘Everyone is waiting for him to come back’

The day before the trade deadline, the Grizzlies beat the Toronto Raptors for their 10th victory in 11 games. They were 35-16, second in the West and comfortable in trading veteran defender Marcus Smart in a cap-clearing move.

It’s been mostly downhill since, headlined by injuries to star guard Ja Morant, coach Taylor Jenkins getting fired and a freefall in the standings. This week, they suffered a huge blow when standout rookie Jaylen Wells was lost indefinitely with a broken wrist after a nasty fall under the basket.

“Losing Jaylen is a huge piece,” a West executive said. “He’s their primary point-of-attack defender.”

Last week’s win over the Detroit Pistons was the Grizzlies’ first victory over a team with a winning record in two months. Memphis has been a below-average offense (17th) and defense (18th) since the All-Star break. And now it is dealing with the reverberations of the late-season dismissals of Jenkins and multiple assistant coaches.

The bigger question is what Memphis will get out of Morant, who has recently been in the news for his various in-game gestures, and who will be under scrutiny in these playoffs to see what level he, and by extension the Grizzlies, can achieve.

“I’m not sure they have the internal fortitude to overcome what’s been thrown at them,” an East executive said. “They’re betting on Ja to be the guy from 2.5 years ago. Everyone is waiting for him to come back, but he hasn’t yet.”

“At this point,” the West executive said, “I don’t know if there’s a series where Ja will be the best player. Maybe against Houston.”

‘Going to hate it’: Why the Rockets won’t be any easy matchup

The Rockets have been one of the remarkable stories of the year, riding a physical defense and depth to a surprising No. 2 seed after a spectacular run in the second half of the season.

“Ime [Udoka] has done the best job, people in the media should have the guts to vote for him for Coach of the Year,” an Eastern Conference scout said. “Whoever plays against them is going to hate it.”

With so many experienced and star-laden teams sitting behind them in the West standings — and with the Thunder sitting above them on the other side of the bracket — facing Houston either in the first or second round could be viewed as a favorable outcome.

But for a young team like the Rockets, going through that process will be a great learning experience and a true test of what this group is capable of moving forward.

“They’re a fascinating team,” a scout said. “They go through such lulls offensively, and they need someone who can consistently score for them. They’ve made a good environment for Jalen Green to succeed, but they’re OK. I’m intrigued to see how they’ll do in the playoffs. I like them, I don’t love them.”

Why ‘a lot of unknowns’ cloud Minnesota’s playoff run

The Wolves have had several phases to the season as they’ve dealt with injuries to Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and Rudy Gobert. They’ve had success against some elite teams — they’re 6-2 against OKC and Denver — and have had other moments where they’ve kicked winnable games away, such as Tuesday’s meltdown against the Milwaukee Bucks.

“It’s hard to have confidence in them. They’re a younger team, they’re immature at times,” one executive said. “Ant is brash and arrogant when it’s going well and moody when it’s not. Rudy has been a difference-maker since coming back from the back injury. There’s a lot of unknowns. How much will they trust Randle? How durable is Conley? But they could get hot.”

We saw last year what Minnesota is capable of. The Timberwolves obliterated the Phoenix Suns in the first round, then shocked the defending champion Nuggets in the conference semifinals behind a 20-point comeback in a road Game 7.

And while the up-and-down nature of their season remains a postseason concern, the ups are high enough that there is still belief another such run is in them.

“They are my [sleeper] in the West playoffs,” a scout said. “I think they’re very, very good. They have a nice blend of everything. We can knock Randle for what he is, but he’s still a very good player.

“They’re well balanced. Conley isn’t what he once was, but I’m intrigued to see what they can do.”

Kawhi the key (again) for the surging Clippers

For the past couple of months, many teams have been grabbing headlines out West. The Lakers and Warriors have surged after star trades. The Nuggets and Grizzlies have gone sideways and made dramatic personnel decisions. The Suns and Dallas Mavericks have seen once-promising seasons go up in flames due to a combination of injuries and poor performance, and the Thunder have just kept on winning.

Flying beneath all of that, though, has been the Clippers, who suddenly are in position to have home-court advantage in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.

“I think they’re really good,” an executive said. “Zubac is so underrated. People haven’t talked about how good he’s been, and they have two players who can win games in a playoff series in Kawhi [Leonard] and James [Harden].”

As great as Zubac and Harden have been, the real question about the Clippers’ ceiling once again is the health of Leonard. Since March 1, Leonard has been averaging over 25 points on over 50% shooting overall and 40% from 3 — something only MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Durant have been doing over the same span.

More importantly, he has played in 17 games and averaged 35 minutes over that span. If that level of availability and production can sustain itself? The Clippers will be a force to be reckoned with. However, this is far from the first time that question has been asked over the past few years.

“Kawhi looks good,” the executive said. “He takes over for stretches. But let’s see how he looks in a couple weeks. We’ve seen him get to this point and then break down.”

Source: espn.com