NBA intel – Draft pick protections, franchise decisions to watch
Four years ago this week, on the unusual late November draft night in COVID-impacted 2020, brand new Philadelphia 76ers president Daryl Morey traded Al Horford to the Oklahoma City Thunder in what was mostly a salary dump. A number of players were involved, but the prime asset was the 2025 top-six protected first-round pick sent to OKC.
As the NBA moves through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, that outstanding draft pick has led a growing conversation within the league: Six weeks into the 2024-25 season, there are a couple teams performing worse than expected. And there are a couple teams performing better than expected. The shadow over all of it is a deep draft coming next summer, which teams believe could contain several potential franchise players. Excitement over the draft started showing in trades made last summer, and it has unquestionably affected behavior throughout the current season.
We’ll tackle how these “surprise” teams address their situations, dive into players and coaches’ relationship with the referees after some recent high-profile incidents and look at what’s behind a few stars’ decisions to change agents.
Jump to a section:
Draft pick drama in Philly and Chicago
Major decisions for Nets and Pelicans
Why some stars are switching agents
How does the NBA feel about its refs?
Why is everyone watching the 76ers and Bulls’ picks?
Windhorst: Less than 20 games into the season, it seems imprudent to start worrying about losing a top-six protected pick. The length of the season is forgiving and the softness of this season’s Eastern Conference allows grace for Philly to overcome its wretched 3-14 start. But there are two big reasons rival executives are now watching the Sixers closely: uncertainty over Joel Embiid’s health and how fragile the percentages are around that pick.
If Philadelphia’s bad start turned into a full miserable season and they finished with the sixth-worst record, they’d have just a 37% chance of keeping their pick. If they finished with the fourth-worst record, they’d have an 81% chance. If they finished with one of the two worst records, they’d be 100% assured of keeping it. The stakes are potentially huge and those percentage differences are as well. (Last year, the difference between finishing with the sixth-worst record and the fourth-worst was four games.)
“You would want at least 25 games before you really judge your team and they haven’t had their top guys together at all,” one rival executive told ESPN of the Sixers. “Normally you wouldn’t even have this conversation right now, you’d be focused on saving your season.”
Perhaps that’s how Philadelphia will proceed and perhaps not.
“They have the information on Joel’s health and that will probably inform their moves,” another league executive told ESPN. “There’s a lot of things to consider, including what your owner wants to do.”
Bontemps: A talking point among league scouts, coaches and executives is just how badly Philadelphia has to open the season before being sunk in the supremely forgiving East. Considering their start has the Sixers just three losses out of the final play-in spot, there is plenty of room for the bottom to fall should things continue.
As a result, sources told ESPN they don’t expect Philadelphia to pivot toward a full-on attempt to keep its pick, particularly not after an opening month when Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey have played a combined six minutes together. Philadelphia is 29th in the NBA in field goal and 3-point shooting percentages and is dead-last in the league on open 3-pointers (25.5%).
Windhorst: The Chicago Bulls’ top-10 protected pick is another to watch. It’s owed to the San Antonio Spurs after the 2021 sign-and-trade for DeMar DeRozan. Chicago has the opposite issue of Philly; the Bulls are off to an 8-12 start behind the best shooting season of Zach LaVine’s career.
As a result, Chicago is riding the edge, tied for the league’s ninth-worst record. The Bulls let DeRozan leave in free agency and traded away All-Defense rock Alex Caruso last summer, tipping their hand as to their intentions. Teams are monitoring whether another move or two could be coming before the Feb. 6 trade deadline.
“It makes sense for them to trade a veteran, especially if it opens more playing time for rookie [Matas Buzelis]” one executive told ESPN. “But who are they trading that would make a difference? They’ve been trying to move LaVine for more than a year but there’s been no good market. They want to keep [Coby] White, and [Nikola] Vucevic is on the books for $21 million next year.”
Bontemps: Another reason why Philadelphia feels it can overcome its brutal start: The Bulls are in the East’s play-in hunt despite a minus-4.9 net rating (23rd in the NBA) and a 25th-ranked defense. But, Chicago is projected by BPI to finish with 38 wins and the seventh seed, significantly higher than the 76ers (10th) and the Indiana Pacers (8th).
The play of Josh Giddey, the Bulls’ main offseason addition after being acquired from the Oklahoma City Thunder for Caruso, is also worth monitoring. Opposing scouts and executives have noted Giddey’s recent downtick in minutes, and obviously he didn’t receive a contract extension from Chicago before last month’s deadline for deals for players on their rookie contracts.
But the results when he’s on the court have been rough: Chicago is negative-8.9 points per 100 possessions in the more than 500 minutes Giddey has played this season — and is a full eight points per 100 possessions better when he sits.
What are league decision-makers saying about Brooklyn and New Orleans’ directions?
Windhorst: During June’s draft, the Brooklyn Nets made a deal with the Houston Rockets to reacquire rights to their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks, a trade that made clear to all the world they were entering a potential tanking season. Then, they traded away star wing Mikal Bridges for future draft picks to hammer home their intentions.
“Just about everyone on their roster is available as long as they don’t take back long-term money,” one source told ESPN of Brooklyn, which also could have up to $70 million in cap space next summer.
“They’re not giving anyone away. At least not yet.”
But under new coach Jordi Fernandez, who has found success playing bigger lineups, Brooklyn has been winning, even despite injuries. The Nets will probably not stay in the top 10 in the standings, but ending up in the back end of the lottery isn’t out of the question in the weak East.
Bontemps: Fernandez has received universal praise from rival teams for getting buy-in from a roster largely made up of players on expiring contracts. But it will be fascinating to see how Brooklyn responds to losing leading scorer Cam Thomas, who will miss the next few weeks with a hamstring strain.
No one has ever denied that Thomas, who can be a restricted free agent next summer after he and Brooklyn didn’t come to an extension last month, is a walking bucket. But even after significant jumps in shooting efficiency (46.1% overall, 38.9% from 3) he still is a very ball-dominant player who is a limited passer and questionable defender.
Brooklyn is several points better defensively with him sitting — and actually has a positive net rating (2.9) in his 354 minutes on the bench, compared to a minus-4.5 net rating in his 568 minutes on the court. Brooklyn began its stretch without Thomas Wednesday with a stunning win in Phoenix. For years, rival scouts and executives have had trouble determining Thomas’ value. The next month could help shape that.
Windhorst: The New Orleans Pelicans have been absolutely decimated by injuries. It got so bad that last week they signed Elfrid Payton off the street (though he was with them in training camp) and started him a day later. Their 4-15 record is not at all what the team was hoping for when trading for Dejounte Murray last summer hoping to push for a top-four seed in the West. They are finally starting to get some players back, but they’re so far behind in the conference it will take some brilliant play just to crawl into the play-in tournament at this point.
For this reason, it has been pondered whether the Pelicans should examine the path the Memphis Grizzlies did last year when stars Ja Morant and Desmond Bane were lost for huge stretches and the move the Golden State Warriors took in 2019-20 when Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were out. In short, take a “gap” year to get everyone healthy and position for a high pick.
Right now, that isn’t a consideration in New Orleans, sources told ESPN, as the Pelicans want to see what their hopefully eventually healthy roster can do. But with Zion Williamson still out indefinitely with a hamstring injury, it is something to keep an eye on two months from now when the trade deadline approaches.
Bontemps: Unlike the conversation about the 76ers in the East, the widespread belief among opposing teams is that while the Pelicans are starting to get their players back on the court, they have already dug themselves too big of a hole compared to the one Philadelphia is in simply because of the massive disparity between the two conferences.
And, for what it’s worth, BPI agrees. The Pelicans are projected to finish with 32 victories — ahead of only Utah in the West — and have a 0.9% chance of making the playoffs. That would give the Pelicans a chance to land yet another potential game-changing talent in the draft in the past 20 years, after taking Chris Paul in 2005, Anthony Davis in 2012 and Williamson in 2019.
What’s behind all these stars switching agents?
Windhorst: Speaking of the Pelicans, over the past two weeks, Williamson and Brandon Ingram left their respective longtime agents and are in the process of signing with new ones. Unlike Williamson, who is under contract long term, Ingram and New Orleans are at a stalemate ahead of his unrestricted free agency next summer.
Sources told ESPN the two sides can’t agree on a contract extension and trade talks since last summer have failed to align. Finding a place where New Orleans can send Ingram’s $36 million salary and get value while also reducing salary — the Pelicans are currently in the luxury tax for the first time ever and not likely to stay there — is hard enough. But finding a deal with a team Ingram will be comfortable signing a new contract with has also stalled talks, per sources.
Ingram is one of several high-earning players over the past few years who have resorted to an agent change to deal with potential contract or trade situations. LaVine, who asked for a trade last season, is one. The Atlanta Hawks’ Trae Young, who is eligible for an extension next summer, is another, though the Hawks haven’t actively looked to trade Young. The Minnesota Timberwolves’ Julius Randle, who will be a free agent next summer after a shocking trade during training camp, left his agent and then switched back during his current contract.
“At some point,” one general manager told ESPN, “you might see one of these guys just get traded for another.”
Bontemps: The league’s new collective bargaining agreement continues to cause a lot of friction for teams. Signing a player like Ingram, a 6-foot-8 forward who has averaged at least 20 points per game for six consecutive seasons, will require a hefty contract next summer.
All but a few franchises have limited salary cap space, and teams are reluctant to hard cap themselves with a trade early in the season. The several teams in the second apron aren’t even allowed to trade for him.
For all of these players in this group, such as Ingram, Randle, LaVine and Young, it’s difficult to predict their next steps. The current CBA constraints will be changing in the short term, as the league continues to grow out of the COVID-created period where the salary cap hardly moved while salaries escalated.
NBA officiating is once again in focus. What is the league saying?
play2:14Doc Rivers fumes at refs after late call on Giannis
Doc Rivers criticizes referees’ foul call on Giannis Antetokounmpo at the end of Milwaukee’s 115-114 loss to the Hornets.
Bontemps: Midway through last season, there was a significant adjustment in how the NBA officiated its games, allowing for more physicality and making it harder for offenses, which had been a runaway freight train across the opening months of the season, to keep that pace up.
The goal for 2024-25, according to NBA senior vice president of referee operations Monty McCutchen, was for that to continue. And while fouls increased over the first couple of weeks of the season, it has steadily dropped since.
“I’m very happy with where we are now,” McCutchen told ESPN this week. “We worked with individuals as we always do. I didn’t get the group together and say, ‘Oh, we’re blowing too many whistles.’ None of that kind of thing took place. Our work though demands that we work towards driving individuals to better performance.”
There has, however, been a dip in free throw rates over the past several weeks. McCutchen agreed it stemmed from the league talking with its referees about how games were being called.
“In the first week to 10 days [the foul] average was higher,” McCutchen said. “But we didn’t see that every game had more fouls. We had some outlying games that may or may not have had more physical play, may or may not have had some individuals that were putting air in the whistle on plays they shouldn’t have. And that’s the work that our group needs to have every year.”
Windhorst: In a 10-day period this month, Bucks’ coach Doc Rivers, Kings’ coach Mike Brown and Rockets’ guard Fred VanVleet were all fined for publicly criticizing or making demonstrative acts toward referees. A few others, including Thunder coach Mark Daigneault, have toed the line with comments recently.
Some of the edge this season seems to be caused by a bit of a yo-yoing on how physical defense is being officiated. Last year at midseason, referees across the board started allowing more contact. Teams were both surprised — the league did announce some standard midyear points of emphasis adjustments, though no one could remember the changes being so drastic — and pleased that an avalanche of offense had been slowed.
Bontemps: Whatever the cause of the disagreements, McCutchen made it clear he’s fine with the way players and coaches are interacting with officials, emphasizing that with the intensity and pressure of games, things will naturally boil over at times.
“I think that anytime you have a couple of high profile interactions that may or may not lead to ejections, there’s a sense that, ‘Oh, this year [is different],'” McCutchen said. “You have to remember that everyone is still really involved as they should be, and I don’t think we should ever rob people of that sense of passion. Would we like it to see it exhibit itself differently? Of course, in a perfect world. …
“There’s good and bad that comes with that passion and we have to accept that to some degree. I don’t think it’s anything that’s abnormal to any of the rest of the years that I’ve been involved.”
Source: espn.com