NBA insiders on the Luka-LeBron fit, a Cavs-Celtics series, more
After a chaotic trade deadline, a monotone All-Star Weekend and the shocking news that phenom Victor Wembanyama was shut down for the season because of deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder, the NBA returned over the weekend for the final seven-week sprint to the end of the regular season.
There are plenty of storylines to digest — from Luka Doncic’s acclimation in Los Angeles to the playoff races in each conference to what, if anything, can be done about the league’s two most disappointing teams, the Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns.
As a result, we canvassed the league on the 10 most important questions for the stretch run, including where key postseason and award races could be headed.
But we start with the new-look Lakers, and what executives said about their championship timeline.
1. What is Luka Doncic’s fit in L.A. moving forward?
Before Doncic’s 32-point performance Saturday in Denver, he had been a slow start with the Lakers after sitting out six weeks because of a calf injury before his stunning trade to Los Angeles.
“There’s still an adjustment period to play with LeBron,” an East executive said. “But he’s going to be just fine once he gets his feet wet and gets comfortable.”
Everyone also agreed that the fit between Doncic and LeBron James — two of the most cerebral and creative players in NBA history — will eventually be seamless this season. But with a roster still featuring some significant flaws, including a lack of outside shooting and need for an interior presence after the rescinded Mark Williams trade with Charlotte, it will take time for the deal’s impact to manifest — time that might extend beyond this season.
“When Jaxson Hayes is your only lob threat, it’s only going to look so good,” a West executive said. “[Doncic] is a great player, so I assume it will all level itself out, but I don’t know if it’s going to happen this year.”
2. How will the race atop the East shake out?
With Cleveland still sporting a six-game lead in the East after wiping out the New York Knicks on Friday night at home, the consensus was that the Cavaliers will cruise to the top seed in the conference.
It hasn’t been debated for some time, given they’ve been projected to finish several games ahead of the Boston Celtics for months. What created more diverse opinions, however, was whether the Cavaliers would be favored to beat the Celtics in a potential conference finals showdown.
For some, Boston is still a sizable favorite to come out of the East for a third time in four seasons.
“I see the Cavs as where Boston was three years ago,” a West scout said. “A lot of promise, going the right way, but not there yet. They can definitely overachieve and make me look foolish for saying that, but I suspect the Celtics beat them.”
That, however, was not a universal opinion. With the growth from first-time All-Star Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers’ consistent level of play and the addition of De’Andre Hunter from Atlanta at the trade deadline, Cleveland was given a real shot to beat Boston, multiple people told ESPN.
“Before the Hunter trade, I would’ve said the Cavs were shakier,” an East scout said. “Hunter isn’t a lockdown guy, but he’s another option to throw on [Jayson] Tatum and [Jaylen] Brown, he’s having a career year and they didn’t have a guy like that before.
“I think they can beat anybody. They are so balanced and steady, and they’re really not going to beat themselves.”
3. Who will lose the play-in battle in the West?
With Wembanyama’s season cut short, the West playoff — and play-in — picture is a race between 11 teams for 10 spots. The top seven teams — the Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets, LA Clippers and Minnesota Timberwolves — are expected locks.
That leaves four — the Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings and Suns — fighting to see who gets left without a seat at the table. The belief among sources is that the Warriors, with the addition of Jimmy Butler, are likely safe, especially after impressive weekend victories over the Kings and Mavericks. The three other teams, though, were each tabbed to miss the cut.
“Phoenix, which is wild to say,” a West exec said. “They look like they can’t stand being around each other.”
“I don’t trust the Kings,” a West scout said. “I think Dallas is the biggest threat to drop, thanks to all the injuries and the timelines for all of them to come back.”
4. Can the league’s two most disappointing teams — Phoenix and Philly — figure things out?
It’s safe to say things haven’t gone well for the Suns or 76ers given their star power and salaries.
Though there is fleeting belief that both could reach the play-in, there was no faith in either making a sustained playoff run.
“I’ve never been high on Phoenix,” a West executive said, “but there’s also no way they are this bad.”
Both teams are obviously in dire situations, but there was a sliver of optimism about Philadelphia’s future.
“I would be more optimistic long term in Philly than Phoenix long term because, despite the contracts, they have draft capital and some flexibility,” an East scout said. “At least they’ve got [Tyrese] Maxey, [Jared] McCain, possibly another pick.
“Call this season a failure, start over, reset things and move forward. That’s a real ‘two timelines’ sort of thing.”
The same hope didn’t exist for the Suns, who have mortgaged their future and haven’t had a rash of injuries like Philadelphia.
“It feels like the wheels have fallen off,” a West executive said of Phoenix’s season.
5. How much do you believe in Houston or Memphis?
Though the Thunder and Nuggets are clear favorites to come out of the West, the Grizzlies and Rockets are young teams with upside trying to crash the party.
Asked to pick between them, Memphis was the consensus because of the Grizzlies’ playoff experience and star power compared with the Rockets, who have little to no postseason exposure.
“I trust Memphis more,” an East executive said.
“They’re fascinating because of their style of play. They’re an elite offensive team without running pick-and-rolls with Ja [Morant] all the time … and I’m curious to see if that’s sustainable in the playoffs.
Ultimately, both were seen as a step below the Thunder and Nuggets.
“To me, they are solid teams playing with structure and a plan, but they don’t have enough experience,” a West scout said of Memphis and Houston.
“Playoff basketball is a beast. I want to see them in that environment first.”
6. How much do you believe in Milwaukee or New York?
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A similar scenario exists in the East, with two clear favorites atop the conference in Cleveland and Boston, and a couple of potential threats below them in the Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks.
Views were split on which has the better chance. Those favoring the Knicks, despite their 0-7 record against Boston, Cleveland and OKC, pointed to their impressive offense, which has consistently sat, or near, the top of the league.
“There’s just a little more cohesiveness with New York,” a West executive said. “You’ve seen the blueprint of [Tom Thibodeau] and [Jalen] Brunson, and [with] Karl-Anthony Towns as the second or third guy, it’s easier.
“Whereas Milwaukee is so reliant on one guy and there’s not nearly the buy-in across the board that there is in New York.”
The argument for Milwaukee was simple: That “one guy” is two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
“The Knicks are the better team,” an East executive said, “but I’m taking the better player.”
7. How will all of the injuries impact the league — on and off the court?
We’ve seen a spate of injuries that will impact how things shake out in the closing weeks of the season, including Doncic’s recovery and Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford sidelined in Dallas.
The biggest impact, though, could be on the awards races. Wembanyama’s season-ending issue leaves the door open for someone else — possibly former winner Jaren Jackson Jr. in Memphis — to claim Defensive Player of the Year. It also opens an All-NBA spot, which also could go to Jackson and would give Memphis multiple ways to ink their star forward to a long-term extension this summer.
There’s already a lengthy list of stars who either won’t be eligible or are close to losing eligibility, including Wembanyama, Doncic, Davis, Butler, LaMelo Ball, Morant, Joel Embiid, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Zion Williamson, Kristaps Porzingis.
With these players out of the picture — and Kyrie Irving and Antetokounmpo on pace to be at the 65-game limit — it could impact the summer. Mobley, Cade Cunningham and Scottie Barnes all could get hefty raises if they receive an All-NBA spot. Trae Young could become supermax eligible as well, adding a further layer of complexity to his future in Atlanta.
8. How will OKC’s two-big lineup fit?
The Thunder have dominated the West while virtually never having Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein play together, which is a credit to Oklahoma City’s elite depth and talent.
They are finally healthy and playing sustained minutes together for the first time this season after Holmgren’s recovery from a hip injury. And though there could be growing pains, the near-universal belief was that the two bigs will fit well in time. “They’ll make it work,” a West scout said.
The Thunder have been willing to experiment with lineups and tailor them to opponents. That process is expected to continue. The biggest question about the fit was if Holmgren’s shooting would make the pairing useful against various teams.
“I think it hinges entirely on Chet and how well he’s shooting it and how comfortable he is playing in space more than he has in the past,” an East executive said. “But I’m interested. I think it can work.”
9. What should Denver’s starting lineup look like?
As the Nuggets have roared back into the West’s top three after a slow start, Jamal Murray’s resurgence next to Nikola Jokic has been the biggest reason. At the same time, Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook have each impressed as the fifth starter, which has some wondering who should round out Denver’s starting unit. (Braun has started the past two games.)
“I’d keep Russ starting.” a West executive said. “You can’t afford to lose him and you might if you don’t. He’s been a big part of them with his buy-in, and you can spin it to Christian differently. I think the collateral damage of one to the bench is much more significant than the other.”
Braun, though, has made Denver look smart after it didn’t re-sign Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. “He’s quietly been one of the best role players in the league this season,” an East scout said.
10. What will happen with the Celtics and Wolves’ sales?
The two biggest off-court storylines over the next couple of months will happen at the ownership level, where the Celtics’ and Timberwolves’ ownership situations remain unresolved. The Celtics were expected to close their first round of bids for the team last month, though throughout the process, the team has been tight-lipped about the situation.
The only known bidder is current Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca, who has stated his intention to buy the team he has owned alongside Wyc Grousbeck for more than two decades.
Sources around the league are paying close attention to the valuation of the winning bid. The record sale price for the controlling stake in an NBA team remains the $4 billion Mat Ishbia paid for the Suns two years ago.
The Celtics’ final sale price could factor into potential NBA expansion, sources said, with several anticipating that process not beginning before the sale of the Celtics is concluded. Wolves longtime owner Glen Taylor and potential new owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez have been in a protracted battle for control of the team.
That process took a major step forward last week, when NBA commissioner Adam Silver said during his All-Star Weekend news conference that he doesn’t “see any reason why” Lore and Rodriguez won’t be approved as the team’s new owners after the duo won an arbitration ruling in the case two weeks ago.
If Taylor doesn’t appeal the ruling, the new owners could be in charge by the end of March, sources said. Whenever the ownership saga is resolved, there are a lot of questions to be answered: What is the future of lead executive Tim Connelly, who could opt out of his contract after this season? Will Minnesota, which has been in the play-in picture most of the season, repeat as a second-apron team? What would that mean for potential free agents Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Julius Randle?
All are significant questions. The ownership changeover will begin to provide answers.
Source: espn.com