NBA first-month takeaways – LeBron, Durant, Curry still reign
We are just over one month into the 2024-25 NBA regular season, and — like always — there is no shortage of storylines.
Nikola Jokic is putting up season averages that would impress Wilt Chamberlain. The Philadelphia 76ers have gone sideways to a degree no one could have projected. Superstars LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant continue to impress, and unlike last season, so have their teams in the standings. The defending champion Boston Celtics are off to a great start, though they currently sit second in the Eastern Conference. And the disparity between the two conferences — the West currently owns a record 60.8 win percentage against the East — is as wide as ever.
All of it has made for an entertaining opening stretch of 2024-25. Here’s a closer look at what has stood out across the league:
Jump to a section:
Ageless LeBron, KD, Steph
Jokic’s historic opening month
East could be a two-team race
Depth matters more than ever
Star injuries are piling up
A last hurrah for Steph, KD and LeBron?
LeBron James (39 years old), Stephen Curry (36) and Kevin Durant (36) are among the 20 oldest active players in the NBA. And yet, each has proved through the first month that they remain among the most important players in the sport.
James and the Lakers are 10-6 under new coach JJ Redick, who has backed up his offseason proclamation to ensure Los Angeles’ offense would run through Anthony Davis. Though James is averaging 23.6 points — his fewest since his rookie season — there are still only two players this season averaging at least 23 points, 8 rebounds and 9 assists per game: James and back-to-back reigning MVP Nikola Jokic.
Curry, meanwhile, has spearheaded a Golden State revival. Though the Warriors have found success leaning into the “Strength in Numbers” mantra from their first title team a decade ago, that has worked only because Curry is still one of the league’s most dangerous perimeter shooters. Curry is making 44.4% of his shots from beyond the arc on nearly 10 attempts per game while playing less than 30 minutes, as coach Steve Kerr tries to preserve his star’s workload and leans into the depth the Warriors have accumulated.
And then there’s Durant, who was in early MVP conversations alongside Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo before sitting out seven games because of a calf strain. In the opening nine games of the season, Durant was averaging 27.6 points on 55% shooting while leading the Suns to clutch victories in eight consecutive games.
That all three remain so essential to their teams is reason for caution. Curry has sat out games because of knee bursitis; Durant is just coming back from the calf injury Tuesday; and James, while still playing at a high level, is the oldest player in the league (he turns 40 in December) and has sat out more than 20 games in three of the past four seasons.
The Joker is making another run at history
Jokic is the best player on the planet and league MVP in three of the past four seasons, but his chances of claiming the award for a fourth time in five years were expected to be slim. After all, only James has ever done it, and the league is full of young stars such as Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander waiting for their chance at the NBA’s top individual honor.
For Jokic, getting his fourth would require something truly extraordinary. Well, how about 30.2 points, 11.3 assists, a league-leading 13.9 rebounds per game and shooting 56% from 3-point range?
The fact Jokic is doing this while Jamal Murray is playing below his standard (17.6 points but under 35% shooting on 3s), Aaron Gordon is sidelined by a calf injury and Denver’s bench unit is struggling only spotlights Jokic’s brilliance. But keeping this up seems close to impossible. Jokic is playing more than 38 minutes a game — three more than any other season in his career. And while he’s a very good shooter, he won’t be setting a record for 3-point percentage.
What’s undeniable is Jokic’s impact on the Nuggets. Denver is an astounding 34 points per 100 possessions better on offense when he’s on the court. Nothing screams “Most Valuable Player” louder than that. And it’s why Jokic, a month into the season, is on pace to make history.
The East playoffs are going through Boston and … Cleveland?
The defending champion Celtics were universally expected to be in the mix for the top spot in the East after winning 64 games and going 16-3 in the playoffs last season. No one outside of Northeast Ohio was banking on the Cavaliers leading the East and being undefeated well into November. But Cleveland has shown itself to be a legitimate threat for the first time since James left for Los Angeles after the 2017-18 season.
Coach Kenny Atkinson’s arrival has propelled Cleveland’s roster to new heights, in particular Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Garland’s 2023-24 season was marred by injuries, such as the broken jaw that cost him several weeks, while Mobley remained roughly the same player offensively he had been through his first two seasons, rather than taking a leap as many around the league had expected. But from the moment Atkinson took the job, he pushed for Garland and Mobley to play freely, and the result has been the best basketball of their careers. Garland is shooting career highs from the field and 3-point range, and Mobley is seeing an uptick in scoring and ballhandling responsibilities.
Cleveland’s bench has also been outstanding to begin the season, with Caris LeVert (53.4% shooting overall and 45.8% from 3) and Ty Jerome (59.7 and 54.4, respectively) leading the way. All of that has allowed Donovan Mitchell to play more than two fewer minutes per game than any other season in his career, part of a plan to get him to the playoffs in better shape physically than he was last season, when he eventually was injured in the second round against the Celtics.
Part of Cleveland’s start can be attributed to its schedule; per ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), the Cavaliers have played the NBA’s easiest schedule. But they lead the league in offensive rating (122.8) and net rating (plus-11.8), and BPI projects Cleveland to win 61 games — just ahead of Boston for the top spot in the East. The last time the Cavs were the 1-seed in the East? In 2016, when they won the franchise’s only title.
As a result, both the Cavaliers and Celtics are the massive favorites to reach the conference finals and have the top two NBA title odds, per BPI (36.9% for Boston, 25.3% for Cleveland).
Depth has been a major factor
The top of both conferences features quality depth paying off in the early going. The Cavaliers have jumped out to a league-leading 17-1 start in part due to stellar play off the bench from LeVert and Jerome, both of whom are among the league leaders in plus-minus.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are sitting atop the West despite having played zero games this season when even two of their three centers — Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams — have all been available. The team right behind OKC, the Golden State Warriors, is there in part because general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. turned Klay Thompson into key veterans Buddy Hield and Kyle Anderson this offseason. Both players have made an immediate impact, as has a revitalized Kevon Looney in the middle. The Warriors’ depth has even allowed the team to so far withstand a season-ending injury to De’Anthony Melton.
The Houston Rockets and LA Clippers are in the hunt for playoff spots in part because of their deep rosters. Houston’s second-year guard Amen Thompson and third-year forward Tari Eason have both wreaked havoc defensively and closed out games for coach Ime Udoka. Despite Kawhi Leonard’s absence, the Clippers boast a top-five defense constructed around waves of quality defenders across coach Tyronn Lue’s first and second units. If the Clippers can keep that up, it would mark the first time in his career that James Harden played on a team that finished in the top five in defensive rating.
We’ve also seen a lack of depth cause problems for several teams. After Philadelphia’s busy offseason, virtually every player on the team has underperformed — aside from red-hot rookie Jared McCain — relegating the 76ers to the East’s basement while dealing with injuries to stars Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey. Both Jokic and Antetokounmpo are off to ridiculous individual starts, and have put themselves at the top of the MVP discussion, but Denver and Milwaukee have needed every bit of that production because of lackluster play from the talent around them.
The NBA has always been a league driven by top-end talent, but with the team-building constraints brought on by the new collective bargaining agreement, the ability to construct quality depth has never been tougher.
Unfortunately, injuries have also dominated
Sadly, injuries have been a frequent topic of discussion in league circles, and it’s easy to see why. Just look at some of the stars who have already sat out significant time due to injuries sustained this season: Embiid, George, Holmgren, Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Paolo Banchero and Ja Morant. Former All-Stars Leonard and Khris Middleton have yet to play in 2024-25.
There has never been more of an emphasis on player health, and yet injuries have shown no signs of slowing down. According to Jeff Stotts of InStreetClothes.com, there have already been 1,210 games lost to injury this season. That’s roughly in line with injury rates from the past two seasons but with far more total games lost due to injury than at the same point last season (937).
Some league decision-makers have argued the uptick in injuries is tied to the evolution of the sport, with the prevalence of so much 3-point shooting across the league creating more ground for players to cover. People who have been around the sport for decades will point to the decrease in preseason practice time to ramp up players, which used to be a couple of weeks of practice and then several games, and now is limited to one week of camp and a couple of preseason games, during which starters will sparingly play. Others still point to the 82-game schedule, arguing the physical toll being put on today’s players means the season needs to be shortened.
ESPN Research’s Matt Williams contributed to this story.
Source: espn.com