NBA Finals 2025: What to know ahead of Thunder-Pacers championship matchup

The Oklahoma City Thunder spent Christmas night in Indianapolis in a bittersweet mood.

They woke up that day at home with their families and opened presents with their children before a late afternoon flight for the road trip, which was positive. But they were also annoyed, whether they admitted it publicly or not, that 10 teams were playing five games on the NBA’s marquee day, and they were spectators.

They’d won a league-best 57 games the season before and had one of the supposedly marquee players in the league, previous year Most Valuable Player runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, that the NBA perhaps should’ve been featuring on their highest-profile day. They were also 23-5 at that point, on an eight-game win streak and not playing on Dec. 25 was looking kind of ridiculous.

Their hosts for a pedestrian non-national television Dec. 26 game were the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers had rolled their eyes four months earlier when the schedule read that they weren’t on Christmas Day, despite making the conference finals. It was the 20th consecutive year they’d been deemed not worthy of a Christmas game.

In retrospect, this was an ironic moment in the NBA season; the two teams that would eventually meet in the Finals were together on the headline day for the league. They were just living the lives of small-market underdogs.

They ended up staging a terrific game that everyone would be thrilled to see repeated over the next two weeks. The Pacers, still overcoming early-season injuries and malaise, were still just a .500 team at the time but led the game for most of the way and by as much as 16 points even though their star Tyrese Haliburton was held to just four points.

But the Thunder, relentless in their precision, turned the ball over only three times and cut off Indiana’s classic game plan of crushing the opponent’s mistakes. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tied his career high with 45 points, 16 of them coming in the fourth, including a cold-blooded 3-pointer with just under a minute left with Benedict Matherin in his face.

It would’ve been a tremendous showcase game had it been afforded the spotlight. Instead, it’s just an interesting footnote to the factoid uncovered by Yahoo! Sports that the Pacers and Thunder are the first teams to make the Finals without playing on Christmas since 2007.

The league had its reasons and justifications — Christmas 2024 produced several awesome games and tremendous television ratings, it was a triumph for the NBA, but that didn’t mean it wasn’t a mistake. These were always two of the best teams in the league this season, and they’ve proven it over the last six weeks during very similar dueling playoff runs.

Brilliant point guards, exceptional depth, harassing defenses, killer transition play, shrewd game plans, varying heroes, harrowing finishes, demonstrations of resilience, overall dominance.

Call them small market, predict low ratings, mock the respective cities’ nightlife, or the travel challenges, or even the championship-hungry fans, all you want.

Underestimating the Thunder and Pacers has been a losing ideology all season long.

The matchup of the season was there all along and right there on Christmas, even, hiding in plain sight. — Brian Windhorst

Our NBA insiders are setting the stage for the Finals — Game 1 tips off Thursday, June 5 at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC) — including breakdowns of how each team got here, the most important matchups and how each team can win it all.

Road to the Finals | Last time they met
Biggest questions | Matchup to watch
How they win it all

MORE: Schedule and news | Offseason guide

Road to the Finals

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder

Following one of the most dominant regular seasons in NBA history, the 68-win Thunder passed a stress test against a proven championship team in the second round of the playoffs. Otherwise, it made quick work of the Western Conference bracket.

After sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, Oklahoma City blew a double-digit lead in the series opener against three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets and faced a 2-1 deficit after three games. The Thunder viewed the adversity as an opportunity.

“I knew that they were going to bring greatness out of us,” Thunder reserve Alex Caruso, the lone player on the roster with a championship ring, said the day before Game 4 in Denver.

“Denver is a smart team, an experienced team. I know that this is the challenge that’s going to push us to be great.”

Led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder closed out tight wins in the next two games, answering questions about their ability to execute in clutch situations after cruising to double-digit wins in 54 of their regular-season victories. Oklahoma City blew out the Nuggets in Game 7, with Gilgeous-Alexander recording 35 points in a 32-point win.

Oklahoma City needed only five games to finish off the Minnesota Timberwolves in the West finals, capping that series with a 30-point victory. It was the Thunder’s fourth win by a margin of 30 points or more during this playoff run — the most by any team in a single postseason, according to ESPN Research.

As brilliant as Gilgeous-Alexander is offensively, averaging 29.8 points and 6.9 assists per game this postseason, defense drives the Thunder’s dominance. Oklahoma City had the top-ranked defense during the regular season and tightened the screws even more during the postseason, lowering its defensive efficiency to 104.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. The Thunder have forced 18.0 turnovers and converted them into 23.8 points per game during the playoffs, both increases over their league-leading regular-season numbers (17.0, 21.8).

Five Oklahoma City players — Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Luguentz Dort — have averaged more than a steal per game in the playoffs, while Chet Holmgren has averaged 2.0 blocks per game. The Thunder’s defense is a remarkable blend of relentless pressure, swarming help, elite playmaking and togetherness.

“Fifteen puppets on one string,” Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards said, describing Oklahoma City’s defensive chemistry. — Tim MacMahon

(4) Indiana Pacers

It may have been easy to overlook the Pacers at the start of the postseason, but after a exciting run as an underdog through the Eastern Conference field, they won’t be so easily dismissed anymore.

The Pacers won 50 games and entered the playoffs as a No.4 seed, but a slow start masked their true contender qualities. It wasn’t apparent when they dispatched new rival Milwaukee Bucks in five games in the first round, but when they made a 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers team look ordinary and the Pacers announced their ascent from young, up-and-comer to conference elite.

“They’re up here, guys,” Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson said, raising his hand toward his head for emphasis, after his top-seeded team was eliminated from the conference semifinals.

“I know from the data, I know from watching film, they’re up here and they can sustain it. I give them so much credit for being able to sustain that type of intensity for so long.”

It set up a matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals with Indiana’s greatest rival, the New York Knicks, the same franchise the Pacers beat in their only other trip to the Finals in 2000. Indiana’s elite offense — led by Tyrese Haliburton, who has had a star-making playoff run, averaging 18.8 points 9.8 assists and 5.7 rebounds in the postseason to go along with a few huge clutch shots; Pascal Siakam, who was named Conference Finals MVP after putting up three 30-point games in the series; and coach Rick Carlisle, a champion with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011, who Haliburton has termed a “savant” — overwhelmed the Knicks in six games.

The Pacers have posted the second-best offensive efficiency in the playoffs at 117.7 points per 100 possessions. They have a deep bench and play fast for a full 48 minutes, which has allowed Indiana to pull off three of the most improbable comebacks in playoff history during this run. They were down by seven in the last 40 seconds of Game 5 in the first round against the Bucks. They trailed again by seven in the final 50 seconds of Game 2 in the second round against the Cavaliers. And in Game 1 against the Knicks, they were down 14 with 2:51 remaining. Indiana came back to win each game.

“It’s how we orchestrated this team,” said Pacers center Myles Turner, the longest tenured player on the team. “It’s not the flashiest, sexiest team. We just get results.” — Jamal Collier

Last time they met

The Thunder — who went 29-1 against the Eastern Conference, the best interconference record in NBA history — won both head-to-head meetings this season, but their victory at Indianapolis on Boxing Day required a fourth-quarter comeback. Down four with 3:42 to play after a 7-0 Pacers run, Oklahoma City ripped off eight consecutive points to take control, with Jalen Williams scoring half of them. Gilgeous-Alexander was still the standout with 45 points on 15-of-22 shooting, including four 3-pointers in five attempts, plus a perfect 11-for-11 night at the foul line.

There was little such drama when the Thunder hosted Indiana on March 29. Oklahoma City opened up a 22-point lead after three quarters. The Thunder knocked down 17 3-pointers, including six from Lu Dort and five off the bench from Isaiah Joe. — Kevin Pelton

How many times will this Oklahoma City core get to this stage?

The NBA is at the peak of parity, preparing to crown a new champion for the seventh straight season, but the Thunder have dynasty potential. This is the second-youngest team (average age: 25.6 years) to advance to the Finals, trailing only the Portland Trail Blazers’ 1976-77 championship team, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. A deep Thunder roster is built around a 26-year-old MVP in Gilgeous-Alexander, a 24-year-old All-NBA selection in Williams and a 23-year-old potential future Defensive Player of the Year in Holmgren. Plus, general manager Sam Presti has accumulated 13 first-round picks over the next seven drafts. Oklahoma City’s last Finals team — which featured MVPs Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden — is a case study in future success never being guaranteed in the NBA. But Oklahoma City enters the Finals as a heavy favorite, and it’s easy to envision the Thunder becoming June regulars. — MacMahon

Can Indiana win a strength vs strength battle?

The Thunder’s defense will easily be the toughest challenge for the Pacers to solve — a healthy, swarming juggernaut unit with youth and speed that can match, and perhaps, thrive in Indiana’s up-tempo style. The Pacers have benefited from seemingly catching each of their playoff opponents by surprise with their speed, putting the other team on its heels and forcing them into uncharacteristic styles and mistakes. Indiana will enter the series with more experience and Carlisle will continue to try and find a way to dictate the terms of the series like it has in each of the previous three rounds. But the gap between the top of the West and the East has seemed wide for most of the season, which is why Oklahoma City enters the series as heavy favorites. The Pacers have thrived in their underdog role all postseason. Can they find a way to pull off one more massive upset? — Collier

Matchup to watch for the series

Tyrese Haliburton vs. Luguentz Dort

The All-NBA guard against the first-team All-Defense stopper. Haliburton is the engine that makes the Pacers go, but he hasn’t worked that way against Dort. Over the last two seasons, Haliburton averaged just 12 points per game against the Thunder, his fewest against any opponent, and he attempted shots at a lower rate when guarded by Dort than any other defender, according to GeniusIQ tracking.

If the Thunder can slow Haliburton like they have in the regular season, and thereby gum up the works of Indiana’s offense, this series won’t last very long. If Haliburton can solve Dort’s physical defense and keep the Pacers humming, however, Indiana has a chance to shock the world and upset the title favorites. — Zach Kram

How the Thunder can win it all

By doing what they’ve been doing throughout the regular season and playoffs. A Finals win would complete a historic season for Oklahoma City, which posted the best point differential ever in the regular season (plus-12.9 PPG) and has the best for any team heading into the Finals (plus-10.8) since both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors in 2017.

More specifically, the Thunder will win this series as long as they continue controlling the turnover differential, which has proven a key stat throughout the playoffs. Oklahoma City is simultaneously forcing far more turnovers than any other team (18.0 per game) while averaging fewer on offense than any team that advanced past the first round (11.6). That advantage of 6.4 per game would be the highest for a team that played multiple series since the league began tracking team turnovers in 1973-74. — Pelton

How the Pacers can win it all

Indiana’s path to the Larry O’Brien Trophy involves three steps.

First, the Pacers can’t lose the turnover battle by as drastic a margin as every other Thunder opponent. There are encouraging signs here: Haliburton ranks as one of the lowest-turnover guards in the league, and Indiana ranked third in both the regular season and postseason in lowest turnover rate. Taking care of the ball will limit Oklahoma City’s demoralizing, game-breaking transition sequences.

Second, the Pacers need to win the 3-point battle by a wide margin. Again, there’s reason for hope here, as Indiana leads all playoff teams with a 40.1% 3-point mark, while Oklahoma City’s shooters have collectively struggled (33.6% this postseason).

And finally, the Pacers have to win close games. The Thunder are sufficiently dominant that they should expect a blowout win or two in the Finals; they’ve won at least one game by 30-plus points in every series so far. But if Indiana can win the non-blowouts, an upset is possible. The Pacers are 7-1 in clutch games in the playoffs. — Kram

Source: espn.com