NBA draft 2025 – Projecting 30 of the best prospects
The 2025 NBA draft is less than two months away (June 25-26) and now that we know who might be hearing their names called out, it’s time to look at how the top 30 prospects project statistically.
To no surprise, Duke’s Cooper Flagg is the top-ranked prospect by my model, which combines translated statistical performance in the NCAA or non-NBA professional leagues with age and a player’s rank in ESPN’s top 100 prospects to estimate their long-term value.
It’s not just Flagg who excels, however. Three other freshmen, including his teammate Kon Knueppel, rank in the top 10 of the stats-only version of my projections as well as the top 100. When there’s that kind of consensus on the top prospects, players typically translate well to the NBA. For more on how my model works, click here.
With that, let’s get to the top 30 projections among players currently ranked in ESPN’s top 100 after the deadline for early entrants to declare, including a few unexpected names.
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1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.3 WARP
As I wrote in a story with Tim Bontemps about the creative efforts to avoid winning we saw late in the NBA regular season, the question with Flagg is less whether he’s the top prospect this year and more where he stacks up historically. Besides the two No. 1 picks with better projections than Flagg (Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson), Luka Doncic is the only other player to rate better in terms of my consensus model. Flagg is the lone player in this year’s draft who doesn’t rate 15% worse than the average NBA-bound college prospect at his position in any of the categories I use to determine strengths and weaknesses.
2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Having Flagg’s teammate just behind him is a more surprising outcome. Based strictly on college performance, Knueppel would drop a few spots, more in line with where he ranks in the top 100 (No. 9).
However, Knueppel had the strongest projection of any prospect who participated in the Nike EYBL AAU competition in either 2022 or 2023. He posted a .642 true shooting percentage on 35% usage in 2023, suggesting more shot creation potential than we saw alongside other talented prospects at Duke.
3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Along with Flagg, Edgecombe is the second prospect in this year’s class who ranks in the top five by both my stats-only model and the top 100, typically a powerful combo. Although Edgecombe’s offensive efficiency in his lone season at Baylor was middling (50% shooting on 2s and 34% on 3s), he filled out the box score. Edgecombe projects at least 15% better than the typical NBA-bound college shooting guard in terms of rebound, block and steal rate. That defensive potential should give Edgecombe a high floor, while his development as a shooter will define his upside.
4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Harper is on the flip side of the comparison with Knueppel. He had a stronger college freshman season, averaging 19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 4.0 APG on fine efficiency given his large role in the Rutgers offense (29% usage rate). Yet Harper wasn’t quite as effective in EYBL play, and incorporating those stats flipped Knueppel ahead. In particular, Harper excelled as a college finisher, shooting 57% on 2-point attempts — best of any perimeter one-and-done prospect.
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5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke
Top 100: No. 43
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.0 WARP
This projection looks strange to me, too. Evans averaged 13.8 MPG off the bench for the Blue Devils, yet my model is excited about his potential as a shooter. That’s got relatively little to do with Evans’ 42% 3-point accuracy, since the small sample (149 attempts) means his NBA projection is regressed heavily to the mean. However, the 12 3-point attempts Evans launched per 40 minutes give him the highest shooting projection of any one-and-done player in my database. Given how little Evans contributes beyond shooting, he’ll have to be elite to be an NBA rotation player. Ideally, he’ll return for a larger role as a sophomore and we’ll get more data to use.
6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
Fears was an offensive engine at Oklahoma. His 31.5% usage was highest for any major-conference freshman, per Stathead.com, just ahead of Flagg. Given that load, Fears’ ability to score with average efficiency was impressive. Still, in order to justify a similarly large role in the NBA, Fears will have to improve on 28% 3-point shooting. One encouraging sign: Fears shot 85% on free throws, an important indicator for NBA 3-point accuracy.
7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
In a year where the top prospects mostly rated well statistically, Bailey was an exception. In particular, Bailey’s shotmaking ability did not translate to good efficiency because of his difficult shot diet. Per CBBAnalytics.com, 36% of Bailey’s shot attempts were non-paint 2-pointers, ranking in the 99th percentile nationally. And while Bailey hit those at a reasonable 43% clip, that’s far less valuable than the effective 52% he shot on 3s after accounting for the additional point. In the right system, Bailey could emerge as an offensive playmaker, but the wrong team might be unable to maximize his skills.
8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Now that Essengue has moved into lottery territory, it’s hard to call him a sleeper, but he’s still not quite as high as his stats-only projection would suggest as the top international prospect in the draft. In the competitive EuroCup, Essengue has averaged 14.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG in just 23.7 MPG, shooting 66% on 2-point attempts. That’s come against much older competition. Essengue won’t turn 19 until December, making him the second-youngest prospect in the top 100 after Flagg.
9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
The production from Murray-Boyles in Year 2 at South Carolina was too good for scouts to overlook. In the nation’s strongest conference, Murray-Boyles averaged 16.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG with the highest effective field goal percentage (60%) in the SEC. At 6-foot-7, Murray-Boyles is small for a big, but he filled out the box score with seven strengths according to my model — most of any prospect, just ahead of Flagg’s six. (Memphis guard PJ Haggerty, who didn’t crack the top 30, also has six strengths but more weaknesses.)
10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
There’s a lot to like about Jakucionis offensively. A tough finisher, he made 56% of his 2s, excellent for a guard. Additionally, Jakucionis’ 84.5% accuracy at the foul line suggests he could improve on his 32% 3-point shooting at Illinois to go with his playmaking. The concern lies on defense. Jakucionis has a below-average steal rate for a guard and blocked just nine shots all season.
11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Demin’s combination of court vision and size (6-foot-9) to create passing lanes gives him the third-best assist projection among prospects in the top 100. Like Jakucionis, Demin was also a strong finisher from the backcourt thanks to his size, hitting 55% of his 2-point attempts. However, there’s less reason for optimism about Demin as a shooter. Not only did he make 27% of his 3-point attempts, Demin was a hair under 70% at the foul line.
12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Johnson’s volume scoring is the kind of skill set that tends not to fare well in my projections. Usage is his only strength, while Johnson was well below average in terms of rebounding, steals and blocks. The swing skill is just how efficient Johnson can be as a scorer. He faired acceptably at the college level thanks to 40% 3-point shooting but was less effective in EYBL play. Johnson shot just 34% on 3s in the 2023 EYBL campaign.
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13. Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State
Top 100: No. 50
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
My top-rated sleeper who’s outside the first round of the top 100, Byrd rates well because of his rare combination of steal and block rates. Over the past decade, just four other draft picks have projected for at least two steals per 100 plays and to block 2% of opponent 2-point attempts: OG Anunoby, Tari Eason, Paul Reed, Matisse Thybulle and Williamson. Although Byrd has shot just 30% from the college 3-point line, his 83% accuracy on free throws suggests he could provide enough spacing to stay on the court for his defense.
14. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
The oldest son of longtime NBA guard Jason Richardson came on over the course of his freshman season, rating well statistically. In fact, only Flagg was better among qualifying first-year players by Stathead.com’s box plus-minus metric. Richardson doesn’t rate quite as well by my stats-only metric in part because his strong 41% 3-point shooting gets regressed to the mean and he was somewhat less effective in the 2023 EYBL. Richardson shot just 33% on 3s there. Still, at the back end of the lottery, Richardson looks like strong value.
15. Asa Newell, PF, Georgia
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Playing both frontcourt spots, Newell was productive as a freshman, averaging 15.4 PPG on 63% 2-point shooting and 6.9 RPG. Where he sticks long-term in the NBA remains a question mark because Newell projects as a below-average shot blocker for a center but must develop the shooting necessary to play power forward. He hit just 29% from the college 3-point line at low volume but was relatively more accurate on free throws (75%).
16. Boogie Fland, PG, Arkansas
Top 100: No. 52
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
As a freshman at Arkansas, Fland struggled with efficiency, shooting just 41% on 2-point attempts and not well enough on 3s (34%) to compensate. His .498 true shooting percentage was the worst for any top-100 prospect this season. Fland rated better in the 2023 EYBL and boasts a high steal rate, but I’m inclined to agree with the scouts that his poor shooting makes him a more appropriate second-round pick.
17. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Extremely efficient on offense, where he shot 75% on 2-point attempts and an impressive 77% from the line with a relatively large usage rate (16%) for a rim-running big, Maluach did not rate as well on defense. Relative to the typical NBA-bound college center, Maluach’s 7% block rate was on the low side and he had just eight steals all season. Still, the number can’t capture Maluach’s versatility as a switchable big, which helps explain his lottery standing.
18. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Largely a 3-and-D player as a freshman, Bryant hit a promising 37% of his 3-point attempts, 59% of his rare 2-pointers and blocked shots at an impressive rate for a perimeter player. Only one non-post (Nolan Traore) in the top 100 has a superior block projection.
19. Walter Clayton Jr., PG, Florida
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
The breakout star of the NCAA tournament, Clayton’s rise in the top 100 moved him closer to where he’d been all along in the stats-only model. My model valued Clayton’s strong sophomore season at Iona, where he won MAAC Player of the Year, and 39% career 3-point shooting. At 22, Clayton should have been more productive than the younger prospects ahead of him, but he outpaced plenty even accounting for age.
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20. Liam McNeeley, SF, UConn
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
McNeeley was an inefficient scorer at UConn, making 32% of his 3s and 44% of his 2s, but there’s reason to believe that could improve over time. McNeeley hit 37% of his 3s in the 2023 EYBL and was an 87% foul shooter at UConn.
21. Rasheer Fleming, PF, Saint Joseph’s
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
The combination of solid rebounding and shot blocking already made Fleming a standout in statistical models before his breakout in 2024-25 as a scorer. Upping his usage rate, Fleming also made a career-high 39% of his 3s, demonstrating the stretch ability that will be necessary for him to play power forward in the NBA.
22. Kam Jones, G, Marquette
Top 100: No. 44
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
The departure of Tyler Kolek, drafted in the second round by the Knicks, shifted Jones to an on-ball role in 2024-25 after he’d thrived playing off the ball with Kolek. Jones more than doubled his assist rate to 5.9 per game while increasing his scoring and was a consensus All-America pick as a senior. Strong finishing (59% career on 2s) and high-volume 3-point shooting (9.0 career attempts per 40 minutes) are indicators Jones could excel as a creator off the bench.
23. Koby Brea, SG, Kentucky
Top 100: No. 55
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
The top-ranked shooter in the draft, Brea brings a clear value proposition with his 43% career accuracy beyond the arc and enough size (6-foot-6) to get off his shot against NBA defenders. The right team could probably get more out of Brea’s ability to shoot on the move. He shot an effective 59% coming off screens last season, per Synergy Sports, but got just 31 of those shot attempts in Kentucky’s offense.
24. Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Coming off the bench on a deep Auburn team that started five seniors, Pettiford was the third-leading scorer behind NBA prospects Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara as a freshman. He must improve his finishing, having shot just 49% on 2s as an undersized point guard prospect, but an assist-to-turnover ratio near 2 was promising.
25. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa
Top 100: No. 84
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Sandfort slumped offensively as a senior, hitting both 2s (49%) and 3s (34%) at career-low rates, but he was exceptionally efficient as a junior and a career 90% foul shooter. The question with Sandfort is how much of his success was a product of Fran McCaffery’s offensive system. Iowa has produced four draft picks since 2021 and only No. 4 pick Keegan Murray has developed into a consistent rotation player.
26. Nolan Traore, PG, Saint Quentin (France)
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 36
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
After starring in last year’s Nike Hoop Summit, Traore passed on college hoops to play professionally in his native France. An instant standout in the French LNB playoffs, Traore entered the year fifth in the top 100 but declined with his play. On the plus side, Traore has the best assist projection for any top 100 player after averaging 5.2 per game in just 22.8 minutes. However, his inefficient scoring (43% on 2s and 28% on 3s) dropped him out of the top 30 in the stats-only model.
27. Cedric Coward, SF, Washington State
Top 100: No. 53
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Although Coward played just six games for Washington State after transferring from nearby Eastern Washington, and under a different coach, the success of NBA Rookie of the Year contender Jaylen Wells coming from the same program could help his stock. At Eastern, Coward was a high-efficiency scorer, shooting a remarkable 72% on 2s and 39% on 3s. He also projects as an above-average rebounder and distributor for a small forward.
28. Will Riley, F/G, Illinois
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 43
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
The Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year for his high-usage play (24%) coming off the bench as a freshman, Riley will have to improve his 3-point shooting to stick in an NBA wing role. He hit 33% at Illinois and just 31% in the 2023 EYBL, though he’s been relatively a bit better at the foul line (72% in college).
29. Thomas Sorber, C Georgetown
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Would you believe that no Georgetown product has been drafted since Otto Porter Jr. in 2013? Sorber will assuredly break that streak if he stays in the draft after averaging 14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 2.0 BPG as a freshman. As good as that sounds, the bar for center production at the NCAA level is high, which particularly works against fellow DMV freshman Derik Queen of Maryland. By contrast to Queen, who doesn’t rate in my top 30 despite being 10th in the top 100, Sorber was a much more effective shot blocker.
30. Alex Karaban, F, UConn
Top 100: No. 36
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
After starting on UConn’s back-to-back national champions, Karaban stuck around while the rest of the team’s starting five headed to the NBA. Karaban wasn’t able to take the step forward as a scorer he might have hoped, seeing his accuracy on both 2s (54%) and 3s (35%) decline in a slightly larger role. Karaban did show more playmaking chops, nearly doubling his assists to 2.8 per game, and also blocked shots at a career-high rate without Donovan Clingan around to protect the rim.
Source: espn.com