NBA Cup projections: Which teams will reach the quarterfinals?
The second edition of the in-season tournament, known as the Emirates NBA Cup, tips off Tuesday. All 30 teams will play four group-stage games across the next several weeks for the chance to reach the knockout rounds and ultimately the championship game on Dec. 17 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Behind the efforts of LeBron James, the Los Angeles Lakers won the inaugural NBA Cup but their first-round exit in the 2024 playoffs proved that getting hot to win a single-elimination tournament in December is very different from subsequent postseason success.
Conversely, last year’s runner-up Indiana Pacers used their unexpected NBA Cup success as a springboard to a long playoff run, reaching the Eastern Conference finals before falling to the eventual champion Boston Celtics.
Let’s break down which teams have the best chance at following in the footsteps of the Lakers and Pacers with the help of ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, which generates projected odds of advancing as the group winner. We’ll also evaluate which teams are best positioned to potentially claim the wild-card spot in each conference with an eye toward Las Vegas.
Jump to a group:
East Group A (CHA, BKN, NYK, ORL, PHI)
East Group B (DET, IND, MIA, MIL, TOR)
East Group C (ATL, BOS, CHI, CLE, WAS)
West Group A (HOU, LAC, MIN, POR, SAC)
West Group B (OKC, LAL, PHX, SA, UTAH)
West Group C (DAL, DEN, GS, NO, MEM)
East Group A
Group favorite: Philadelphia 76ers (34.6%)
Contenders: New York Knicks (23.7%), Orlando Magic (19%)
Lurking: Brooklyn Nets (11.9%), Charlotte Hornets (10.8%)
Having a team that started 1-6 as the favorites to win their group is a good example of how the NBA Cup can differ from the regular season. The 76ers will get former MVP Joel Embiid back from his extended absence — first due to injury recovery, then a three-game suspension for shoving a reporter — just in time to debut in Tuesday’s Group A opener against the Knicks.
And because NBA Cup games are never the second night of back-to-back sets, Embiid should be available for all games even if All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey misses extended time due to a hamstring strain.
The Magic have won consecutive games after dropping five straight without All-Star Paolo Banchero, whose oblique injury will surely sideline him through the duration of group play, but the winner of Philadelphia hosting New York on Tuesday should have the inside track to win Group A.
Still, this is one group that could prove to be wide open due to injuries. BPI simulations show all five teams (the Nets and Hornets round out Group A) winning at least 10% of the time, easily the most competitive group from top to bottom.
East Group B
Group favorite: Miami Heat (38.4%)
Contenders: Milwaukee Bucks (26.9%), Indiana Pacers (20%)
Lurking: Detroit Pistons (8.3%), Toronto Raptors (6.3%)
Although not as competitive from top to bottom as Group A, the East’s Group B is the most open at the top. Only the Heat are currently projected to win 30% of BPI simulations. That’s a testament to the slow start by the Bucks, who looked like the top team in the group entering the season before their early season struggles that have them mired near the bottom of the East.
Milwaukee could get a boost with Khris Middleton potentially returning from ankle surgery during group play. If Jimmy Butler can return soon following his ankle injury, Miami will remain the favorite in Group B, boasting the best point differential of these teams so far this season.
Indiana is a longer shot to repeat last year’s NBA Cup run after a .500 start to this season.
East Group C
Favorite: Boston Celtics (50.8%)
Contenders: Cleveland Cavaliers (40.7%)
Lurking: Chicago Bulls (4%), Atlanta Hawks (3.7%), Washington Wizards (0.8%)
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst has said that winning the NBA Cup is a good goal for the Cavaliers, the NBA’s last remaining undefeated team. There’s only one big challenge for Cleveland: being drawn with the Celtics in by far the most top-heavy group. Worse yet, that game will be played in Boston next Tuesday, a repeat matchup from last season’s Eastern Conference semifinals.
Although the Celtics are the comfortable BPI favorite, both top teams advance at around 70% of simulations because of the strong possibility that this group yields the East’s wild card.
For tiebreaker purposes, the Cavaliers will want to run up the score as much as possible in their wins. Last year, teams didn’t really grasp the incentive to maximize point differential until the end of group play, resulting in lopsided blowouts on the final night. This time around, expect possible wild cards to run it up from the start.
Cleveland opens with the Bulls at home and might put up the biggest margin for any team hosting the rebuilding Wizards in the finale.
West Group A
Group favorites: Minnesota Timberwolves (31.2%)
Contenders: Houston Rockets (26.4%), Sacramento Kings (20.9%), LA Clippers (15.4%)
Lurking: Portland Trail Blazers (5.2%)
Between their youth, depth and fast start, the Rockets seem like precisely the kind of team that could make a surprise run in the NBA Cup.
Standing in their way are the Timberwolves (still finding their footing after acquiring Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in the preseason), the Clippers, and the Kings.
The challenge for the Rockets is their two most difficult group games will be played on the road. The same goes for the Clippers, although they remain undefeated so far on the road. Conversely, that’s an edge for Sacramento, which gets to host both of the other top contenders at the Golden 1 Center, including the Rockets in what could be a crucial finale.
West Group B
Group favorites: Oklahoma City Thunder (43.2%)
Contenders: Phoenix Suns (26.4%), Los Angeles Lakers (20.1%)
Lurking: San Antonio Spurs (5.5%), Utah Jazz (4.8%)
Going into their game on Sunday against Golden State, the Thunder were projected to make the in-season tourney quarterfinals in nearly 90% of simulations.
Those chances took a big dip after star center Chet Holmgren suffered a pelvic fracture in the game. He’ll be out at least eight to 10 weeks, likely ruling him out for the tournament’s duration.
A couple of factors still favor the Thunder in winning a group that includes the high-scoring Suns and the defending tournament champion Lakers. First, the Thunder host the Suns — who’ll be without Kevin Durant for at least two weeks due to a calf strain — on Friday in a key game in this group.
The group also has the three of the five teams in the West with a negative point differential (Lakers, Spurs and the winless Jazz) — meaning this group is most likely to produce the conference’s wild card.
As long as the Durant-less Suns can keep things close in Oklahoma City, they’ll have an excellent chance to advance even if they lose.
The Lakers’ hopes of defending their tournament title are complicated by playing at Phoenix, and it remains to be seen if the league’s scoring leader Anthony Davis will be available this week after suffering an eye injury in Sunday’s win over Toronto.
West Group C
Group favorites: Golden State Warriors (33.6%)
Contenders: Denver Nuggets (26.1%), Dallas Mavericks (24.1%)
Lurking: Memphis Grizzlies (13.8%) New Orleans Pelicans (2.5%)
Three of the West’s top six teams in point differential are in this group, making it the NBA Cup’s most difficult — and one that also has plenty of injured stars. With the weakened Pelicans seeing forward Zion Williamson and several other key contributors hobbled by injuries, it could be challenging for the second-place team to claim a wild-card spot by virtue of schedule.
Golden State’s fast start has positioned the Warriors as favorites. They also host two of the three other top teams in Group C, though they travel to Denver on the final night of play.
The Nuggets also play two of their three hardest games at home, and there’s an outside chance they could get starting forward Aaron Gordon back from a calf strain by the time they host Golden State in the finale.
The schedule is more difficult for both Dallas and the Memphis Grizzlies (who are without guard Ja Morant due to a hip injury), although the Mavericks have the ability to win anywhere. That includes perhaps the marquee game of the NBA Cup group stage: Klay Thompson’s return to the Bay on Tuesday night.
Source: espn.com