NBA buzz – Trade deadline, expansion and more 2025 intel

It has been an eventful 2024 in the NBA. The Boston Celtics reclaimed the top spot by winning their record-setting 18th title. Victor Wembanyama was a unanimous selection for Rookie of the Year, cementing himself as the future of the league — and a potential successor to LeBron James and Stephen Curry as the face of it, though those two showed on Christmas Day that they still have plenty left in the tank.

Nikola Jokic moved into rarified air by claiming his third Most Valuable Player award in four seasons, then James and Curry took down Jokic-led Serbia in a thrilling Olympic semifinal en route to Team USA’s fifth straight gold medal.

This season, after a successful sequel to the NBA Cup, more trade drama and one of the best holiday slates in league history, we’re about to hit a new year. What are league insiders expecting in 2025?

Here’s what scouts, coaches and executives told ESPN about the NBA’s outlook over next 12 months, including the names they’ll be watching at the trade deadline, the growing buzz around expansion and why money matters more than ever.

1. The salary cap restrictions will continue to hinder teams.

One of the biggest storylines over the past couple of months has been the impact of the fully installed collective bargaining agreement and how it is curtailing player movement — particularly the rule hard capping teams at the first luxury tax apron if they take in a dollar more than they send out in trades. So it comes as no surprise that that is a major topic that could shape the way the league looks over the next year.

“One thing the league has loved is player movement,” one East executive said. “They were very invested in that, and now they have done something that’s made it clearly much harder to make a trade.”

Then there’s the financial crunch facing some of the elite teams around the league, and what they do moving forward. The Celtics are the defending champions and the favorites to win this season but are staring at a $500 million payroll and luxury tax bill for next season, endangering their hopes of keeping this group together for a long time. “How are good teams going to navigate through the financial realities of keeping their teams together?” another East executive said.

2. The league is watching its television ratings.

After a slow start to the season from a ratings perspective, there has been plenty of discussion in the league — including by NBA commissioner Adam Silver last week in Las Vegas at the NBA Cup — about whether that’s a long-term issue for the league to address.

Silver himself jokingly referred to Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred’s ill-fated “Golden At-Bat” last week, in terms of improving the ratings, but there’s debate on whether the NBA following baseball’s example might be a good idea.

“Baseball made changes,” one Western Conference executive said. “They made baseball more fun.”

Massive Christmas Day ratings will stem the tide a bit, as will the league’s recently signed 11-year, $76 billion national television deal. But between the open questions about the future of regional sports networks and the rise of streaming sports as traditional TV viewership declines, this is a topic that won’t be going away.

3. One West team could be the next star trade destination.

Star players changing addresses has long been a water cooler topic in NBA circles, and even though the CBA has made in-season trades more challenging, it won’t stop people from wondering when the next deal could happen.

The ongoing Jimmy Butler saga — including Miami Heat team president Pat Riley’s public declaration on Thursday that Butler will not be traded — is on the top of peoples’ minds. Longer term, rival teams are still watching what will happen with Giannis Antetokounmpo if the Milwaukee Bucks suffer another disappointing end to the season after two consecutive first-round losses. Similar talk has centered around De’Aaron Fox’s situation with the Sacramento Kings.

On the team side, the Houston Rockets — with their combination of a coach who players are excited to play for in Ime Udoka, their plethora of young players and a bunch of draft picks — are the runaway pick as the team to watch when the next star becomes available.

“The whole landscape of the league,” an Eastern Conference scout said, “could change based off what they do.”

4. Teams are positioning themselves for the strong 2025 draft.

Two years ago, a huge focus around the league was waiting to see what happened at the 2023 NBA draft lottery, and who would get the right to take Wembanyama. And while this year’s draft class doesn’t have a player of his caliber, it is considered to be one of the deepest and talented in recent memory, currently led by Duke forward Cooper Flagg.

That’s why league observers pointed to the race to the bottom as something to pay attention to, not only to see where those top prospects land and how it impacts those respective teams, but also how it will inform what teams do over the next couple of months. The Brooklyn Nets, for example, have already moved on from starting point guard Dennis Schroder — one of several moves rival teams believe Brooklyn will make between now and the Feb. 6 trade deadline in an effort to secure as many ping-pong balls as possible.

5. The league’s conference imbalance could be causing friction.

For the better part of a generation, the league’s balance of power has consistently leaned — and often has completely tipped — in favor of the Western Conference’ star power and depth. And even if that’s shifted a bit since the historically slow start for East teams in nonconference matchups, there are 10 teams over .500 in the Western Conference compared to six in the East.

As a result, league sources told ESPN that calls from teams pushing for 1-through-16 seeding in the playoffs (or a similar change) are expected to get louder even if nothing changes. Such a revision would require half of the East to vote in favor, with many middling teams voting against their best interests. No one we spoke with expects that to change.

6. Injuries will have an even bigger impact on 2025 awards and contracts.

Several people cited injuries as another major focus as the league continues to grapple with its best players sitting out. ESPN’s Bobby Marks noted Thursday that, due to the NBA’s 65-game rule, 73% of players are either on pace to be ineligible for postseason honors, or already are. (For example, Joel Embiid is already out of contention for postseason awards and Luka Doncic might not be far behind.) Awards aside, there will be a massive impact on players’ ability to qualify for supermax contract extensions.

Injuries also continue to impact the standings.

“Look at New Orleans and Philly,” one West executive said of two preseason contenders that are mired near or at the bottom of the standings. “Now Orlando is dealing with [injuries], plus Kawhi [Leonard with the Clippers] and Steph’s knee situation and Chet [Holmgren in Oklahoma City].”

7. Expansion buzz is starting to gain momentum.

Last week, Silver said the league still isn’t ready to make any formal announcements on expansion, but it came up multiple times as something people around the league are looking at in 2025.

One bellwether on that topic is expected to be the sale of the Celtics, which the franchise has said it hopes to have completed by the early part of next year. Sources have maintained for some time that the price Boston sells for could help play a role in determining how quickly expansion moves along and whether it is the right time to pursue it.

But the potential for expansion is on the minds of teams as they prepare for the next few years, with Seattle and Las Vegas remaining the popular picks to land teams. Again, Silver declined to guarantee that in discussing it last week.

Source: espn.com