NBA breakout players – Hits, misses and 5 picks for 2025-26

As the 2024-25 NBA season enters its final weeks, it’s a good time to look back at how the breakout players we forecasted in October have fared this season — both the predictably good and the surprisingly underwhelming.

In the preseason, we projected outcomes for 11 breakout players, including how Evan Mobley could emerge as the centerpiece of the Cleveland Cavaliers‘ offense, but didn’t anticipate Golden State’s Brandin Podziemski taking a step back in efficiency.

Let’s look back at some of the hits and misses on how those players fared, and with insights from ESPN’s Chris Herring, paint a way-too-early look at the players who could take leaps ahead in 2025-26.

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Breakout hits | Breakout misses
Way-too-early picks for 2025-26

Looking back at the hits

Evan Mobley

Cleveland Cavaliers
Center

Everything I’d heard coming out of Cleveland pointed to coach Kenny Atkinson having a plan to utilize Mobley, 23, as an offensive fulcrum, a vision that played a role in Atkinson landing the job in June 2024. Fast-forward to March and the Cavs sit atop the East at 58-14 with the league’s most efficient offense (121.5 offensive rating). It’s clear Atkinson (now ESPN BET’s favorite for NBA Coach of the Year) indeed had something cooking for the 7-footer with legitimate ball skills.

Mobley is averaging a career-high 18.6 points per game, has more than doubled his 3-point attempts, and is playing his usual stalwart defense, emerging as the backbone of the Eastern Conference’s top team and as an All-Star breakthrough. He’s delivering as one of the NBA’s top two-way bigs.

Key stat: In addition to his raw scoring, Mobley’s 22.6% usage rate, 64% true shooting and plus-13.2 net rating are all career highs, pointing to the synergy between his individual growth and Cleveland’s breakout as a title contender. The Cavs have leaned into him creatively, lessening some of the pressure on guards Darius Garland (who is also having a career season) and Donovan Mitchell.

Jalen Williams

Oklahoma City Thunder
Forward/Guard

The logic behind my preseason pick of a breakout contender in Williams, a talented power guard who slid into a bigger on-ball role with Josh Giddey out in Oklahoma City, was sound. If anything, I undersold what happened next: Williams became a first-time All-Star earlier than I’d anticipated. Back in October, I wrote: “It’s unclear exactly where the ceiling is for Williams — whether he can be a legitimate All-Star candidate, or whether he settles in as more of a top-flight complementary player.”

Williams has had to play a versatile defensive role, often covering opposing bigs in smaller lineups, and has also done that with Chet Holmgren missing three months (39 games) with a fractured pelvis. Although he has missed a chunk of March with a hip injury, Williams has moved toward full-on stardom.

Key stat: While Williams’ efficiency has taken a bit of a dip because of his demanding offensive role, the 23-year-old is averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks with a 26.8% usage rate. It’s no coincidence the Thunder own the NBA’s best record (60-12), leaning on him to dictate offense when MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needs a break while also plugging holes defensively — he ranks top-five in deflections per game (3.6). Not many younger players successfully handle that type of two-way responsibility.

Jalen Green

Houston Rockets
Guard

Green’s stats aren’t markedly better than they were a season ago, but his emergence as the leading scorer of a Rockets team that, at 47 wins on March 25, has surpassed the 41 total wins Houston garnered last season has been noteworthy. In the first season of his three-year extension, Green is playing consistent basketball in a winning context as the team’s leader in usage rate. It often takes scoring guards time to turn that corner, and Green has started to figure it out on a Rockets team that also has exercised patience with its other blue-chip draftees such as Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun.

Key stat: Green has upped his efficiency from last season, jumping from the 61st to 68th percentile scoring as a pick-and-roll handler (leading the Rockets in those types of possessions) and, notably, has gone from the 28th to the 60th percentile in spot-ups, per Synergy. Continuing to make better decisions with the ball as well as learning to play without it on a team with plenty of other talented players is a big step in the right direction for Green.

Regretting the misses

Franz Wagner

Orlando Magic
Forward

I’d like to request a mulligan: The arrow was obviously pointing up for Wagner, who broke through with Germany at the Paris Olympics this past summer and was slated for a big leap in responsibility alongside Paolo Banchero in Orlando. But things didn’t go according to plan, as Wagner tore an oblique on Dec. 6 and missed 20 games.

He has still been effective when available, upping his scoring average to a career-high 24.3 points per game and shouldering a 30.8% usage rate. The Magic have been inconsistent and appear ticketed for a play-in slot. Wagner would have benefited from a cleaner bill of health, but apart from his uptick in volume, his numbers don’t quite amount to a complete breakout. While the injury threw a wrench in his All-Star chances this season, I feel confident his breakout will happen.

Key stat: Wagner’s 3-point percentage still hovers at 30% despite an increase in attempts. Considering he shoots 85% from the free throw line (and shot 35% and 36% in his first two seasons), logic suggests he’ll improve from long range eventually, but shooting improvement is often nonlinear and not a given.

Jalen Johnson

Atlanta Hawks
Forward

Chalk up Johnson’s placement here to his being another player who receives an incomplete grade because of injury. Johnson was ruled out for the season on Jan. 29 with a torn labrum that required surgery. Until the injury, projecting Johnson to be a breakout star this season was looking like a good call. Through 36 games, Johnson was averaging career highs across the board: 18.9 points, 10 rebounds, 1.6 steals and a block per game, emerging as Atlanta’s second-best player (behind Trae Young).

Availability has been an ongoing concern for Johnson, however, with each of his past two seasons ending early because of significant injuries (in 2023-24, it was his ankle and he played in only 56 games). I’m unsure if this truly counts as a miss, but the pattern of health issues for the 23-year-old has impeded a true star leap.

Key stat: Including Johnson’s incomplete season, just six other regulars in the NBA have usage and assist rates over 20% with a rebound rate above 13%: Denver’s Nikola Jokic, Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid (who’s played just 19 games), Houston’s Alperen Sengun, Miami’s Bam Adebayo and Sacramento’s Domantas Sabonis. Johnson had success in the do-it-all role the Hawks envisioned for him — now they need him to do it for closer to 82 games.

Brandin Podziemski

Golden State Warriors
Guard

Podziemski felt like a solid sophomore breakout candidate, as the Warriors entered the season with an unsettled rotation and a goal to be more competitive. While his minutes have been consistent amid injuries, and he even became a starter in February, he has taken a step back in the efficiency department (53.6% true shooting percentage). As noted in October, “for Golden State to get back to the playoffs, it will need Podziemski to up his efficiency across the board and tackle greater defensive responsibilities.”

Coach Steve Kerr has mixed and matched lineups for much of the season as well, with Jimmy Butler joining the team at the trade deadline and Buddy Hield, Moses Moody and Gary Payton II all seeing playing time. Podziemski remains a part of Golden State’s future, but he hasn’t been as essential recently, working through some shooting struggles as he continues to adjust to the NBA.

Key stat: Much has been made of his 3-point regression (down from 38% to 34%), but Podziemski is also a career 69.4% shooter from the foul line and doesn’t draw many free throw attempts overall (less than two per 40 minutes in two seasons). Podziemski, known as a determined worker, stands to become a better shooter all-around over time, but the number of easy looks and paint opportunities he generates will need to improve as well. Some of this might be a byproduct of his shifting role, but Podziemski is a craft-reliant scorer and not physically overpowering, so he’ll likely need to solve for that in some way in the long run.

Way-too-early breakout picks for 2025-26

It’s always challenging to parse what’s real and what’s not this time of year, especially when a good chunk of the league is either injured, busy maximizing its odds ahead of the draft lottery, or doing both. That reality often waters down the competition.

Nonetheless, there are a handful of young, difference-making players who have stood out over the course of the season. Some are members of teams that figure to make the playoffs, and others are on teams that are still building toward hope for 2025-26 and beyond. All five of the players listed here have a shot to be more influential at this time next season, given their ages and the improvement they’ve already shown to this point. — Herring

Toumani Camara

Portland Trail Blazers
Forward

Few players ever reach the level of defense that the second-year wing displays nightly for the Blazers. He’s already an elite point-of-attack stopper, having hounded Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton into a scoreless, three-shot, six-assist showing back in February. But he’s also capable of guarding up, having done an impressive job on much bigger players such as two-time MVP Antetokounmpo and even three-time MVP Nikola Jokic in the paint. And none of that even covers that he’s already a picture-perfect role player and double-figure scorer who not only shoots 37% from 3 on good volume but also rebounds well and contributes more than two stocks (steals plus blocks) per game.

Key stat: The 24-year-old has taken 27 charges, the most in the NBA by far. (The rest of the Blazers, combined, have taken 12.) His ability to earn those calls speaks to his incredible anticipation as a help defender. He makes plays seemingly every night where he swoops in — either chase-down style or from the weak side — to swat away shots. He’s the biggest reason Portland has logged a top-five defense since the All-Star break.

Amen Thompson

Houston Rockets
Forward

The 22-year-old jumps off the screen, but his bursts seem to have more purpose and understanding behind them this season than in his rookie campaign in 2023-24. He’s a terror defensively, but he has also taken over games this season with his playmaking by logging three triple-doubles — two of which were on the road against top-five teams in New York and Cleveland. There are some rough spots. His perimeter shooting is still clearly subpar. (His 3-point percentage is up double-digit percentage points from a season ago, though.) And you can still see the makings of a hellacious player who’s on his way to stardom, even if he never becomes a shooter.

Key stat: The Rockets, one of the league’s best stories this season, have managed a 10-9 mark when starter Fred VanVleet is out of the lineup — something Thompson might be most responsible for. Houston has been 4.7 points better than its opponents per 100 possessions when Thompson is playing with VanVleet on the bench. He has averaged an impressive stat line — 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists on 55% shooting — when he has started games this season.

Dyson Daniels

Atlanta Hawks
Guard

As fantastic as Daniels has been in his first season with the Hawks — and rest assured, he’ll get a fair share of votes for NBA Most Improved Player — there’s reason to believe next season could be even better for him and his Atlanta teammates.

But why?

“There’s times when it looks like he’s beat, but he’s able to recover so well. And sometimes we get into trouble because guys end up overhelping [thinking Daniels can’t get back into the play], and now someone else is open,” Hawks coach Quin Snyder said.

Learning to play alongside All-Star Trae Young should only get easier for the 21-year-old Daniels, who has averaged career numbers in his third year.

Key stat: The ever-widening statistical gap between Daniels and the rest of the league in terms of deflections is ridiculous. He has 374, while second-place Kelly Oubre Jr. (Philadelphia) has 248. That gap of 126 is the same as the one between Oubre and Houston’s Dillon Brooks, who ranks 67th in deflections. Beyond that, just last week, Daniels logged his 192nd steal, giving him the most in a single season in more than a decade.

Jaden Ivey

Detroit Pistons
Guard

It was a scary, premature ending to his campaign when Ivey was taken off the court on a stretcher back on Jan. 1 following a collision that fractured his left fibula. But both Ivey and the Pistons had plenty to feel good about before then. And a better season was much needed after a bizarre, loss-filled 2023-24 campaign that had Ivey looking, and perhaps feeling, like a bit of an afterthought.

This season, he was far more accurate from deep (40.9% this season after failing to crack 34% over his first two seasons) with a career-best true-shooting percentage, brightening the outlook for when he and star teammate Cade Cunningham share the starting backcourt full-time again.

Key stat: Ivey, 23, had a handful of big moments prior to his season-ending injury, including a game-winning, 4-point play in the closing seconds in Sacramento and a running buzzer-beater to knock off the Raptors. After a less-than-stellar 36.4% from the floor in the clutch in 2023-24, he was shooting 47% in those situations this season.

Quentin Grimes

Philadelphia 76ers
Guard

It might almost be unfair to place Grimes here, given the monster scoring performances he has been putting up with the 76ers of late. Yes, the Sixers are a chaotic mess, and yes, it’s hard to identify anything tangible from what they’re doing right now as they seek to keep their top-six-protected pick. But Grimes, 24, is in the midst of the best stretch of pro basketball he has played since his rookie season in 2021, averaging nearly 29 points per game through nine games in March. The fourth-year wing had never averaged more than 11.3 points per game in a season.

Key stat: Grimes’ usage rate of 25.9% since joining the Sixers might be hard to sustain once players such as Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey are back and healthy next season. Still, anyone who can notch a 46-point showing with Philadelphia’s stripped-down unit is potentially worth having around, even in a smaller role. (Grimes will be a restricted free agent this summer.) These recent breakout games are the types of performances that the Knicks, Pistons and Mavs desperately wanted Grimes to show when he was wearing their respective uniforms.

Source: espn.com